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Posted: 10/3/2014 10:16:17 PM EST
How many Ebola patients would it take to overwhelm an American hospital? Every report is saying that we have the best system for handling it, but at what point would our system be degraded to the point where it is not effective, and swamped? How much emergency supplies do hospitals carry on their books? and how fast would they go through them in an all out epidemic of any sort?
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:19:46 PM EST
No idea. But I do know that I've heard reports of 90+ rooms being dedicated for ebola outbreak in my AO by the big two local to me hospitals.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:21:38 PM EST
I've worked in hospitals for the last 20ish years. There is no "average" hospital.

I work in a 24-bed ICU. I'd estimate we could handle about 6 Ebola cases. It's just a "this is what I think" number and I have no data or reasoning I can share to back it up.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:23:54 PM EST
But what if Yellowstone blows, and we never get to find that answer?
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:24:58 PM EST
87.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:25:15 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BigPolska:
But what if Yellowstone blows, and we never get to find that answer?
View Quote


Well Fuck....
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:25:51 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Yoda_USAF:
87.
View Quote


Always.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:27:41 PM EST
We'll see...

TC
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:30:47 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GLOCKENNBOOMER:


Always.
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View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GLOCKENNBOOMER:
Originally Posted By Yoda_USAF:
87.


Always.


Came to say this.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:30:59 PM EST
87.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:31:13 PM EST
I don't know, but I'll tell ya, plenty of people will die from stuff unrelated to ebola from fear of going to the hospital if we have an outbreak.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:36:45 PM EST
Depends on the number of icu beds, but probably between 10 (small) to 100 (large) hospital.
After that, it's pretty much just a bed and IV fluids hanging.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:38:44 PM EST
Our hospitals are over extended on a regular basis as it is. Any kind of outbreak or fear of one would completely fuck us. We are the largest tourist destination in the country and an MCI on par with a fully loaded plane crash would cripple our system.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:39:43 PM EST
2...
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:41:21 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 12:10:51 AM EST by Mach]
It is a valid question, but I do not think it matters. Here is why.

This is all predicated on there not being a real time flu test. I do not know if there is or not. Maybe somebody can answer that. If there is, I am going to buy their stock ASAP.

If we get secondary and tertiary cases and If the case infection rate is that of West Africa, it will take several months to become endemic in multiple cities.

At that point in time we will be smack dab in the middle of flu season.

2 things will happen. People with ebola will assume they have the flu and not go to doctors or hospitals and will infect many more people

and

People with flu will go to hospitals thinking they may have ebola. The hospitals will not have the space to isolate everyone with symptoms and people with ebola will not get isolated until well into the disease. This will likely overwhelm the ERs and the test results will take much longer due to back log. At this point the healthcare system could collapse trying to treat and test everyone that presents with flu /ebola symptoms.

TLDR. It isn't how many actual ebola patients hospitals can handle, it will be the shear number of people that have the same initial symptoms due to flu that will overwhelm healthcare, because hospitals will not be able to tell the difference quickly enough.

Unless there is a rapid real time flu test. Is there?

ETA: Fixed most of it I think. I don't have a proper keyboard, just an iPotato.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:48:50 PM EST
Apparently....

ONE.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:53:21 PM EST
Not many. "Average" is very subjective.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 10:57:38 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mach:
It is a valid question, but I do not think it matters. Here is why.

And this is all predicated on there not geing a real time flu test. I do not know if there is or not. Maybe somebody can answer that. If there is, I am going to buy their stock ASAP.

If we get secondary and tertiary cases and If the case infection rate is that of west africa, it will take several months to become endemic in multiple cities.

At that point in time we will be smack dab in the middle of flu season.

2 things will happen. Either people with ebola will assume they have the flu and not go to doctors or hospitals and will infect many more people

and

people with flu will go to hospitals thinking they may have ebola. The hospitals will jot have the space to isolate everyone with synptoms and people with ebola will not get isolated until well into the disease. This will likely overwhelm the ERs and the tests results will take much longer due to back log. At this point the healthcare system could collapse trying to treat and test everyone that presents with flu /ebola symptoms.

TLDR. It isn't how many actual ebola patients hospitals can handle, it will be the shear numbers of people that have the same initial symptoms due to flu that will overwhelm heakthcare, because hospitaks will not be able to tell the difference quickly enough.

Unless there is a rapid real time flu test. Is there?
View Quote


Yes, if it is Ebola, you have a good shot of dying. If it is the Flu, you may die, but most likely will die when you get older. Or, you could get any number of other nasty fucking things like cancer. Or, the volcano at Yellowstone blows up, or ISIS detonates a few dirty bombs and you die of radiation sickness. But the bottom line, EVERYONE IS FUCKED! YOU WILL ALL DIE! I will even bet a team membership on it, no one will live forever.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:00:46 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Justa_TXguy:
I've worked in hospitals for the last 20ish years. There is no "average" hospital.

I work in a 24-bed ICU. I'd estimate we could handle about 6 Ebola cases. It's just a "this is what I think" number and I have no data or reasoning I can share to back it up.
View Quote


If it really is not airborne, then you could probably fill each bed with an Ebola patient, but you would have to be conservative in your nurse to patient ratio. Contact precautions would have to be followed to a T.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:13:24 PM EST
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:22:14 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.
View Quote


So Ebola was already in the US in 1989? Interesting.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:24:58 PM EST
A survey of nurses around the US found that most had no idea what their hospital's plan was, that most believed they had inadaquate amounts of protective gear, and that most hospitals lack or had few overpressure rooms within their facilities.
This may get ugly.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:27:39 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By C-4:


If it really is not airborne, then you could probably fill each bed with an Ebola patient, but you would have to be conservative in your nurse to patient ratio. Contact precautions would have to be followed to a T.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By C-4:
Originally Posted By Justa_TXguy:
I've worked in hospitals for the last 20ish years. There is no "average" hospital.

I work in a 24-bed ICU. I'd estimate we could handle about 6 Ebola cases. It's just a "this is what I think" number and I have no data or reasoning I can share to back it up.


If it really is not airborne, then you could probably fill each bed with an Ebola patient, but you would have to be conservative in your nurse to patient ratio. Contact precautions would have to be followed to a T.


Well, we currently have a bunch of nosocomial C Diff so obviously contact precautions are not being followed. It stems from understaffing.

You know how 90% of arfcom is completely retarded about Ebola? Well, about 50% of nurses would be the same way. We'd have more understaffing, limiting our ability to care for Ebola patients.

In an ideal world, you can put an Ebola patient in a room and slap an contact isolation sign outside. In the real world, it doesn't work like that.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:31:50 PM EST
The main problem is that they can't handle the amount of toxic waste the patients generate:

Link
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:40:31 PM EST
[Last Edit: 10/3/2014 11:41:20 PM EST by dyezak]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.
View Quote


So, to credential what I'm about to say, I was stationed at Ft. Detrick (USAMRID) from 2002 - 2004 and dated one of the 5 scientists on the Ebola project. Her desk was right next to the guy suspected of sending out Anthrax. I am now a senior consultant for the largest healthcare corporation in America. Look at the Fortune 100, and look for the only healthcare company in the top 10...that's where I sit now.

Short answer to the original question. Our healthcare system can handle a LOT. But that means we are in a bad place, and almost any resemblance of what our hospitals look like today would be gone. Generally a hospital is certified to care for a certain number of patients. But every hospital backs off that number when staffing for day to day activities, generally about 50%. And actual utilization of facility services generally hover around 50% of what day to day staffing can handle.

So, if we are in a shit hit the fan scenerio and we are calling out all the stops...all physicians are on duty, all nurses, all techs, etc. A hospital can generally handle between 3-400% more capacity than they would on a normal 'busy' day. This would not be a pretty scenerio. Care given would be the primary concern. You wouldn't see full documentation, charts, etc...billing would be suspended, it would be a completely new world.

So the real question is...how long could we keep that level of care going? A month? Six weeks? I wouldn't bet on anything longer than 2 months at most. And could we squash your hypothetical outbreak in that amount of time...
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:41:08 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AA717driver:
We'll see...

TC
View Quote

Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:42:38 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BigPolska:


Yes, if it is Ebola, you have a good shot of dying. If it is the Flu, you may die, but most likely will die when you get older. Or, you could get any number of other nasty fucking things like cancer. Or, the volcano at Yellowstone blows up, or ISIS detonates a few dirty bombs and you die of radiation sickness. But the bottom line, EVERYONE IS FUCKED! YOU WILL ALL DIE! I will even bet a team membership on it, no one will live forever.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BigPolska:
Originally Posted By Mach:
It is a valid question, but I do not think it matters. Here is why.

And this is all predicated on there not geing a real time flu test. I do not know if there is or not. Maybe somebody can answer that. If there is, I am going to buy their stock ASAP.

If we get secondary and tertiary cases and If the case infection rate is that of west africa, it will take several months to become endemic in multiple cities.

At that point in time we will be smack dab in the middle of flu season.

2 things will happen. Either people with ebola will assume they have the flu and not go to doctors or hospitals and will infect many more people

and

people with flu will go to hospitals thinking they may have ebola. The hospitals will jot have the space to isolate everyone with synptoms and people with ebola will not get isolated until well into the disease. This will likely overwhelm the ERs and the tests results will take much longer due to back log. At this point the healthcare system could collapse trying to treat and test everyone that presents with flu /ebola symptoms.

TLDR. It isn't how many actual ebola patients hospitals can handle, it will be the shear numbers of people that have the same initial symptoms due to flu that will overwhelm heakthcare, because hospitaks will not be able to tell the difference quickly enough.

Unless there is a rapid real time flu test. Is there?


Yes, if it is Ebola, you have a good shot of dying. If it is the Flu, you may die, but most likely will die when you get older. Or, you could get any number of other nasty fucking things like cancer. Or, the volcano at Yellowstone blows up, or ISIS detonates a few dirty bombs and you die of radiation sickness. But the bottom line, EVERYONE IS FUCKED! YOU WILL ALL DIE! I will even bet a team membership on it, no one will live forever.


what does that have to do with my post?
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:45:32 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Yoda_USAF:


So Ebola was already in the US in 1989? Interesting.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Yoda_USAF:
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.


So Ebola was already in the US in 1989? Interesting.


Ebola Reston. Different strain and causes no sickness in humans, only monkeys.

The BearSlayer was on the team that cleaned it up.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:51:57 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By B62stew:


Well Fuck....
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By B62stew:
Originally Posted By BigPolska:
But what if Yellowstone blows, and we never get to find that answer?


Well Fuck....

Or if the polar ice caps melt and we all drown.

Or global warming roasts us!


Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:58:04 PM EST
About 1
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:58:27 PM EST
An additional concern would be how many healthcare and support workers would be AWOL. I'm a FF/PM and there is a point that I would stop going to work and get my family to our remote bug out location.
Link Posted: 10/3/2014 11:59:51 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mach:
It is a valid question, but I do not think it matters. Here is why.

And this is all predicated on there not geing a real time flu test. I do not know if there is or not. Maybe somebody can answer that. If there is, I am going to buy their stock ASAP.

If we get secondary and tertiary cases and If the case infection rate is that of west africa, it will take several months to become endemic in multiple cities.

At that point in time we will be smack dab in the middle of flu season.

2 things will happen. Either people with ebola will assume they have the flu and not go to doctors or hospitals and will infect many more people

and

people with flu will go to hospitals thinking they may have ebola. The hospitals will jot have the space to isolate everyone with synptoms and people with ebola will not get isolated until well into the disease. This will likely overwhelm the ERs and the tests results will take much longer due to back log. At this point the healthcare system could collapse trying to treat and test everyone that presents with flu /ebola symptoms.

TLDR. It isn't how many actual ebola patients hospitals can handle, it will be the shear numbers of people that have the same initial symptoms due to flu that will overwhelm heakthcare, because hospitaks will not be able to tell the difference quickly enough.

Unless there is a rapid real time flu test. Is there?
View Quote
All of your points made here are valid, prescient, and well reasoned.
Would you please do us the valuable favor of repeating this treatise with a proper keyboard?
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:00:03 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By inthe605:
No idea. But I do know that I've heard reports of 90+ rooms being dedicated for ebola outbreak in my AO by the big two local to me hospitals.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
View Quote


It's been quoted by numerous sources that the hospital that had the first Ebola patient and has the NBC guy on the way is the largest in the nation with 10 beds.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:10:14 AM EST
Dyezak: So, if we are in a shit hit the fan scenerio and we are calling out all the stops...all physicians are on duty, all nurses, all techs, etc. A hospital can generally handle between 3-400% more capacity than they would on a normal 'busy' day. This would not be a pretty scenerio. Care given would be the primary concern. You wouldn't see full documentation, charts, etc...billing would be suspended, it would be a completely new world. So the real question is...how long could we keep that level of care going? A month? Six weeks? I wouldn't bet on anything longer than 2 months at most. And could we squash your hypothetical outbreak in that amount of time..."

At that level of hospital 'utilization' most people will avoid hospitals 'like the plague'...
There will be in short order millions of infected, going without care, dying at home, in the streets, or in makeshift quarantine sites.
It will get ugly.
Middle ages, medieval ugly. Except with rifles.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:15:06 AM EST
Somewhere between zero and one
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:15:53 AM EST
I can tell you what the Doctor who treated the last guy at the Nebraska Med center said....and that was that they could not handle any more than 3. They have ten bed in containment areas, but do to the amount of care needed and dirty linen and equipment used and Yaya Yaya yata. He said no more than 3 and 3 would already be exhausting them. So multiply that by a couple for calling in workers for OT and we would still be fucked...
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:17:03 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By miller92063:
I can tell you what the Doctor who treated the last guy at the Nebraska Med center said....and that was that they could not handle any more than 3. They have ten bed in containment areas, but do to the amount of care needed and dirty linen and equipment used and Yaya Yaya yata. He said no more than 3 and 3 would already be exhausting them. So multiply that by a couple for calling in workers for OT and we would still be fucked...
View Quote


Damn.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:35:57 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dyezak:


So, to credential what I'm about to say, I was stationed at Ft. Detrick (USAMRID) from 2002 - 2004 and dated one of the 5 scientists on the Ebola project. Her desk was right next to the guy suspected of sending out Anthrax. I am now a senior consultant for the largest healthcare corporation in America. Look at the Fortune 100, and look for the only healthcare company in the top 10...that's where I sit now.

Short answer to the original question. Our healthcare system can handle a LOT. But that means we are in a bad place, and almost any resemblance of what our hospitals look like today would be gone. Generally a hospital is certified to care for a certain number of patients. But every hospital backs off that number when staffing for day to day activities, generally about 50%. And actual utilization of facility services generally hover around 50% of what day to day staffing can handle.

So, if we are in a shit hit the fan scenerio and we are calling out all the stops...all physicians are on duty, all nurses, all techs, etc. A hospital can generally handle between 3-400% more capacity than they would on a normal 'busy' day. This would not be a pretty scenerio. Care given would be the primary concern. You wouldn't see full documentation, charts, etc...billing would be suspended, it would be a completely new world.

So the real question is...how long could we keep that level of care going? A month? Six weeks? I wouldn't bet on anything longer than 2 months at most. And could we squash your hypothetical outbreak in that amount of time...
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dyezak:
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.


So, to credential what I'm about to say, I was stationed at Ft. Detrick (USAMRID) from 2002 - 2004 and dated one of the 5 scientists on the Ebola project. Her desk was right next to the guy suspected of sending out Anthrax. I am now a senior consultant for the largest healthcare corporation in America. Look at the Fortune 100, and look for the only healthcare company in the top 10...that's where I sit now.

Short answer to the original question. Our healthcare system can handle a LOT. But that means we are in a bad place, and almost any resemblance of what our hospitals look like today would be gone. Generally a hospital is certified to care for a certain number of patients. But every hospital backs off that number when staffing for day to day activities, generally about 50%. And actual utilization of facility services generally hover around 50% of what day to day staffing can handle.

So, if we are in a shit hit the fan scenerio and we are calling out all the stops...all physicians are on duty, all nurses, all techs, etc. A hospital can generally handle between 3-400% more capacity than they would on a normal 'busy' day. This would not be a pretty scenerio. Care given would be the primary concern. You wouldn't see full documentation, charts, etc...billing would be suspended, it would be a completely new world.

So the real question is...how long could we keep that level of care going? A month? Six weeks? I wouldn't bet on anything longer than 2 months at most. And could we squash your hypothetical outbreak in that amount of time...


I wonder who would pay for the hospitals' costs? Hospitals, in fact anything medical related, as you know is incredibly expensive. Throw an ebola outbreak into the mix and the costs increase geometrically.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:45:47 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 12:46:16 AM EST by Krink]
probably depends a little on how many people are still going to work at the hospital if it gets that bad
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 12:53:43 AM EST
Now you know why FEMA bought all of those coffins.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:03:24 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mach:


Ebola Reston. Different strain and causes no sickness in humans, only monkeys.

The BearSlayer was on the team that cleaned it up.
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Originally Posted By Mach:
Originally Posted By Yoda_USAF:
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
the senior scientist at USAMRIID who was called to the office at
four in the morning on October 16th, 2001, when the Daschle letter full of anthrax was being analyzed at
the Institute, is the co-discoverer and namer of the Ebola Reston virus, the only type of Ebola that has
ever been seen in the Western Hemisphere.

There are now five identified species of Ebola. The hottest of them, Ebola Zaire, kills up to ninety-five
percent of its infected victims, and there is no cure for it. Jahrling discovered the Ebola Reston virus in
1989, during an outbreak of Ebola in Reston, Virginia
, a suburb of Washington, D.C. Before he knew
what the virus was, he inadvertently inhaled a whiff of it from a small flask. Tom Geisbert, the
USAMRIID microscopist whom Jahrling would later ask to examine the Daschle anthax, also took a
whiff.
The two scientists tested their blood every day for a while after that, but they never became sick.
They are the official codiscoverers of Ebola Reston, and they have continued to collaborate on research
into Ebola. Peter Jahrling also discovered that an antiviral drug called ribaviran can be used successfully
to cure people who are infected with Lassa, the Level 4 virus that turns people into bleeders.
In the nineteen nineties, as the presence of biological weapons in Russia and other countries
became more obvious and more alarming, Peter Jahrling expanded his interests beyond Ebola and began
to study smallpox.


So Ebola was already in the US in 1989? Interesting.


Ebola Reston. Different strain and causes no sickness in humans, only monkeys.

The BearSlayer was on the team that cleaned it up.

I was also at Yerkes for a short stint during the Reston trials.
Although that definately seemed to be the case, There was still a vocal minority who were doubtful of those findings at the time of the original trials and it appears now that there may in fact be more to the Reston strain than was originally concluded. Although nearly all unconfirmed, Reports have slowly been trickling in, that are once again raising questions about what exactly the pathogenicity actually is in humans.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:06:12 AM EST
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Originally Posted By A_G:

I wonder who would pay for the hospitals' costs? Hospitals, in fact anything medical related, as you know is incredibly expensive. Throw an ebola outbreak into the mix and the costs increase geometrically.
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The revenue cycle would work as well as the documentation allowed. At the beginning you would still have sufficient time to gather the required documentation to bill individual insurances. However as the outbreak ramped up documentation would decline and payment for services would suffer. You'd have the majority of the burden initially absorbed by the individual facilities. Then as things cooled down you'd probably see lump reimbursement from the state and federal disaster relief funds. It would definately be a CFO's worst nightmare.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:07:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 4:39:46 PM EST by pwr2al4]
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Originally Posted By Krink:
probably depends a little on how many people are still going to work at the hospital if it gets that bad
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everybody who is needed will show up. I have zero doubts in that regard.
ETA: Sorry, I thought the question was asking about willingness to go to work to treat A possible ebola patient, not the shtf type scenario that was actually being asked about

Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:14:50 AM EST
I was informed by someone with tons of paramedic/hazmat/crazies experience that the hospital that received and treated that doctor in Omaha has a capacity of 20 for that type of care... In other words, get your hazmat suits boys, we're proper screwed...
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:20:46 AM EST
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Originally Posted By dyezak:


The revenue cycle would work as well as the documentation allowed. At the beginning you would still have sufficient time to gather the required documentation to bill individual insurances. However as the outbreak ramped up documentation would decline and payment for services would suffer. You'd have the majority of the burden initially absorbed by the individual facilities. Then as things cooled down you'd probably see lump reimbursement from the state and federal disaster relief funds. It would definately be a CFO's worst nightmare.
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Originally Posted By dyezak:
Originally Posted By A_G:

I wonder who would pay for the hospitals' costs? Hospitals, in fact anything medical related, as you know is incredibly expensive. Throw an ebola outbreak into the mix and the costs increase geometrically.


The revenue cycle would work as well as the documentation allowed. At the beginning you would still have sufficient time to gather the required documentation to bill individual insurances. However as the outbreak ramped up documentation would decline and payment for services would suffer. You'd have the majority of the burden initially absorbed by the individual facilities. Then as things cooled down you'd probably see lump reimbursement from the state and federal disaster relief funds. It would definately be a CFO's worst nightmare.

Its actually all surprisingly well laid out for anyone who cares to look at it. The Finance section actually makes up one quarter of the 4 primary sections that form up under Unified Command/Incident Command response. Im to lazy to type it all out but they are surprisingly thorough.


Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:30:03 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 2:31:30 PM EST by pwr2al4]
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Originally Posted By Saladman:
I was informed by someone with tons of paramedic/hazmat/crazies experience that the hospital that received and treated that doctor in Omaha has a capacity of 20 for that type of care... In other words, get your hazmat suits boys, we're proper screwed...
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I can tell you from first hand experience working on Clifton road in Atlanta that even that number is a pipe dream.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 1:55:02 AM EST
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Originally Posted By pwr2al4:

Its actually all surprisingly well laid out for anyone who cares to look at it. The Finance section actually makes up one quarter of the 4 primary sections that form up under Unified Command/Incident Command response. Im to lazy to type it all out but they are surprisingly thorough.


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Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
Originally Posted By dyezak:
Originally Posted By A_G:

I wonder who would pay for the hospitals' costs? Hospitals, in fact anything medical related, as you know is incredibly expensive. Throw an ebola outbreak into the mix and the costs increase geometrically.


The revenue cycle would work as well as the documentation allowed. At the beginning you would still have sufficient time to gather the required documentation to bill individual insurances. However as the outbreak ramped up documentation would decline and payment for services would suffer. You'd have the majority of the burden initially absorbed by the individual facilities. Then as things cooled down you'd probably see lump reimbursement from the state and federal disaster relief funds. It would definately be a CFO's worst nightmare.

Its actually all surprisingly well laid out for anyone who cares to look at it. The Finance section actually makes up one quarter of the 4 primary sections that form up under Unified Command/Incident Command response. Im to lazy to type it all out but they are surprisingly thorough.




I am eagerly awaiting your next post where you point me to where I can look.

I really wonder how long the hospitals can go before they get any sort of payment or reimbursement. Hospitals are already strapped for cash in many cases, I see it every day because I'm in medical service/sales and used to work at one. How long could they absorb the costs, especially costs for treating fucking ebola, before they have they implode? I'm curious about what pwr2al4 referenced as that would probably answer a lot of my questions.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 2:03:47 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 2:04:56 AM EST by marksman121]
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Originally Posted By A_G:


I am eagerly awaiting your next post where you point me to where I can look.

I really wonder how long the hospitals can go before they get any sort of payment or reimbursement. Hospitals are already strapped for cash in many cases, I see it every day because I'm in medical service/sales and used to work at one. How long could they absorb the costs, especially costs for treating fucking ebola, before they have they implode? I'm curious about what pwr2al4 referenced as that would probably answer a lot of my questions.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By A_G:
Originally Posted By pwr2al4:
Originally Posted By dyezak:
Originally Posted By A_G:

I wonder who would pay for the hospitals' costs? Hospitals, in fact anything medical related, as you know is incredibly expensive. Throw an ebola outbreak into the mix and the costs increase geometrically.


The revenue cycle would work as well as the documentation allowed. At the beginning you would still have sufficient time to gather the required documentation to bill individual insurances. However as the outbreak ramped up documentation would decline and payment for services would suffer. You'd have the majority of the burden initially absorbed by the individual facilities. Then as things cooled down you'd probably see lump reimbursement from the state and federal disaster relief funds. It would definately be a CFO's worst nightmare.

Its actually all surprisingly well laid out for anyone who cares to look at it. The Finance section actually makes up one quarter of the 4 primary sections that form up under Unified Command/Incident Command response. Im to lazy to type it all out but they are surprisingly thorough.




I am eagerly awaiting your next post where you point me to where I can look.

I really wonder how long the hospitals can go before they get any sort of payment or reimbursement. Hospitals are already strapped for cash in many cases, I see it every day because I'm in medical service/sales and used to work at one. How long could they absorb the costs, especially costs for treating fucking ebola, before they have they implode? I'm curious about what pwr2al4 referenced as that would probably answer a lot of my questions.


Check this out
http://emilms.fema.gov/IS100hcb/index.htm
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 2:26:18 AM EST
I bet that even just 1 would screw up most hospitals. Most housekeeping departments wouldn't know what to do with that level of hazmat even if they could find staff that would be willing to even go near the room where an infected patient has been. And heaven help the hospital that doesn't have their own incinerator onsite.
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 2:58:50 AM EST
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Originally Posted By inzane123:
I bet that even just 1 would screw up most hospitals. Most housekeeping departments wouldn't know what to do with that level of hazmat even if they could find staff that would be willing to even go near the room where an infected patient has been. And heaven help the hospital that doesn't have their own incinerator onsite.
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A cop was killed here for the first time in over 50 years. The hospital they took him to had its emergency department shut down to new patients for hours. If one gun shot victim a regular occurrence here, can shut down a large hospital emergency department for half a day what would a couple ebola patients showing up do?
Link Posted: 10/4/2014 3:03:00 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/4/2014 3:06:09 AM EST by NorthPolar]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By inzane123:
I bet that even just 1 would screw up most hospitals. Most housekeeping departments wouldn't know what to do with that level of hazmat even if they could find staff that would be willing to even go near the room where an infected patient has been. And heaven help the hospital that doesn't have their own incinerator onsite.
View Quote


The hospital I worked at would be pretty well screwed. Hazmat is shipped out for incineration. Off the top of my head, there are 3 isolation pods and a decon suite in the ED and whatever they can neg pressure in the ICU. About it. I wonder if the usual decon stuff works on ebola. I figure if stuff will kill cdif and then you hit the room with virex II afterwards, I'd hope it was toast. Then again bsl-4 viruses are a bastard.

Realistically, 3-5 patients at most and they'd be fucked. Some days, I miss my old job until I remember all the crap I was exposed to. Hell, PPD other than gloves/masks/face shields was in a secure room that I'd need security to unlock. Only ever saw it once, and I doubt most employees even knew it was there.

To be brutally honest, if it became a pandemic we're fucked. Thankfully, ebola isn't (currently) transmittable through the air so contact precautions are all that is needed. Would love to see the emails floating around the hospital about it though.

(for the record, I was patient facing admin/clerical)

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