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Posted: 4/19/2016 10:41:30 PM EDT
About a month?
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:42:00 PM EDT
Hillary in a walk.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:42:28 PM EDT
That will present a whole new problem.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:43:43 PM EDT
He won't be. He will either go over 1237 after CA, end up short after CA with enough uncommitted delegates to push him over the top, or not have enough even then. In other words, it won't be known until the convention.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:44:26 PM EDT
He isn't going to get 1237.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:46:00 PM EDT
He'll be dropping out any day now
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:47:53 PM EDT
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Quoted:
He isn't going to get 1237.
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No he is going to get 1240.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:51:01 PM EDT

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He isn't going to get 1237.
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He will get 90+ tonight, so I am sure he will get 1237.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:51:18 PM EDT
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Quoted:
He'll be dropping out any day now
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That last scandal is it for him....he's done.......again
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:51:36 PM EDT
I think trump will fall short by about 80 delegates ....Cruz will fall short by 300ish delegates...
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:52:57 PM EDT
After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:54:00 PM EDT
McConnel was talking today about not the 1st ballot at the convention, but the second ballot.

Said he was optimistic.

Interesting times.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:55:03 PM EDT
I'm not exactly sold on Trump, but you clowns that keep trying to convince yourselves that he's going to be toast are laughable.  

I'm coming to the realization that no matter who wins, this country is hosed.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:55:09 PM EDT
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 200+ delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


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95 Republican delegates in New York.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:57:28 PM EDT
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95 Republican delegates in New York.
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 200+ delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




95 Republican delegates in New York.


and only 17 are awarded in PA, 54 or so are uncommitted on the first vote i believe.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 10:57:33 PM EDT

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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.



He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.





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Watch your mouth, Trump called him Senator Cruz tonight, shit talking phase is over, its time to be respectful.



 
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:00:32 PM EDT
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:02:57 PM EDT
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I'm not exactly sold on Trump, but you clowns that keep trying to convince yourselves that he's going to be toast are laughable.  

I'm coming to the realization that no matter who wins, this country is hosed.
View Quote


Yep.  I want a Trump win because it will be so much more entertaining.  

I cant wait until the average joe six pack super bowl watching onion ring gut like button clicking idiot gets as mad as the BLM and other politically active retards.

Its gonna be awesome.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:05:47 PM EDT
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and only 17 are awarded in PA, 54 or so are uncommitted on the first vote i believe.
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 200+ delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




95 Republican delegates in New York.


and only 17 are awarded in PA, 54 or so are uncommitted on the first vote i believe.


Most are telling anyone who asks that they will follow their local constituents vote for at least the first ballot.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:19:42 PM EDT
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Quoted:
After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


View Quote


How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:21:20 PM EDT
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Watch your mouth, Trump called him Senator Cruz tonight, shit talking phase is over, its time to be respectful.
 
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


Watch your mouth, Trump called him Senator Cruz tonight, shit talking phase is over, its time to be respectful.
 


That is very interesting.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:23:49 PM EDT
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How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.


Trump will win the popular vote by such a great margin that the delegates will have no justification in supporting cheatin Ted.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:23:54 PM EDT
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How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.


He did until too much attention was drawn to his slimy antics. Paul Manafort has proven to be an incredibly effective persuader across a wide range of situations.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:27:34 PM EDT
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Most are telling anyone who asks that they will follow their local constituents vote for at least the first ballot.  
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 200+ delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


 


95 Republican delegates in New York.  


and only 17 are awarded in PA, 54 or so are uncommitted on the first vote i believe.  


Most are telling anyone who asks that they will follow their local constituents vote for at least the first ballot.  


When you vote in PA besides voting for the candidate you also vote seperately for your local delegates.  In the voters' guide you will usually find which candidate the delegate entries support.  That hasn't been any sort of issue in the recent past presidential elections, but it certainly is a big issue this year.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:28:15 PM EDT
Really?  This is your thread.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:29:38 PM EDT
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When you vote in PA besides voting for the candidate you also vote seperately for your local delegates.  In the voters' guide you will usually find which candidate the delegate entries support.  That hasn't been any sort of issue in the recent past presidential elections, but it certainly is a big issue this year.
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 200+ delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.


 


95 Republican delegates in New York.  


and only 17 are awarded in PA, 54 or so are uncommitted on the first vote i believe.  


Most are telling anyone who asks that they will follow their local constituents vote for at least the first ballot.  


When you vote in PA besides voting for the candidate you also vote seperately for your local delegates.  In the voters' guide you will usually find which candidate the delegate entries support.  That hasn't been any sort of issue in the recent past presidential elections, but it certainly is a big issue this year.


The delegate list is being circulated in PA by the Trump campaign.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:30:14 PM EDT
Donald Trump has been flying around the country in an aircraft with expired registration!



No way anyone is going to vote for him after that!
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:32:53 PM EDT
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I think trump will fall short by about 80 delegates ....Cruz will fall short by 300ish delegates...
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Looks like he picked up 89 delegates.

94% reporting

Donald Trump 89 Delegates

John Kasich 3 Delegates


Ted Cruz 0 Delegates
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:33:02 PM EDT
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Donald Trump has been flying around the country in an aircraft with expired registration!

No way anyone is going to vote for him after that!
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No he hasn't. He has been flying around in a Boeing 757 that aircraft is a Cessna.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:40:36 PM EDT

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How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.
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Quoted:

After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.



He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.









How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.




 



How is Ted going to win? Seriously? He has no path.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:45:55 PM EDT
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No he is going to get 1240.
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He isn't going to get 1237.


No he is going to get 1240.



Or else you're going to vote straight party Democrat ticket, right?
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:45:58 PM EDT
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How is Ted going to win? Seriously? He has no path.
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.

 

How is Ted going to win? Seriously? He has no path.


He can win 92% of the remaining delegates. Cruz has 559 delegates and only needs to win 678 more out 735 delegates left.

ETA: Trump has to win an insurmountable 53% of the delegates left to cinch the nomination on the first ballot.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:47:41 PM EDT
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No he hasn't. He has been flying around in a Boeing 757 that aircraft is a Cessna.
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Donald Trump has been flying around the country in an aircraft with expired registration!

No way anyone is going to vote for him after that!


No he hasn't. He has been flying around in a Boeing 757 that aircraft is a Cessna.


Not that anyone really gives a crap about the Cessna, but since Trump has kept his mouth relatively under control this is how much scraping needs to be done to come up with a negative story.
Link Posted: 4/19/2016 11:48:40 PM EDT
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Donald Trump has been flying around the country in an aircraft with expired registration!

No way anyone is going to vote for him after that!
View Quote


Let me tell you about the registration process of airplanes and the FAA. One poster in the Aviation forum said that if the DOT operated like the FAA that we'd still be riding horses.

It used to be that your aircraft registrations were good until you sold the airplane. A few years back they changed it. Now you have to pay $5 every three years to renew your registration. Six months before your registration is up, they send you a postcard with a code. You go online, enter the six digit code, pay your $5 and get your registration renewed. Well, this last round I didn't get the card. I don't know why I didn't get it, but I never received it. They cannot give you the code to use online so the only way to renew your registration is to fill out a paper form, include a check for $5 and mail it. I did this two months prior to my registration expiring. Processing time was 4-5 weeks. 5 weeks in, I receive my form back in the mail. I signed the paper with a title that was not in the approved and unpublished list of acceptable titles for a company officer, even though I signed it exactly as it appears (and is required by the state) on my articles of incorporation. I made the change they suggested and mailed it off. I called and asked if I would receive it prior to expiration. Nope. It goes back to the end of the queue and the penalties for operating an aircraft with an expired registration aren't just stiff, they're prohibitive.

The only exception to getting this expedited is if it's a medical/rescue aircraft, and even that is very difficult.
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:01:15 AM EDT
He won't be. He will either go over 1237 after CA, end up short after CA with enough uncommitted delegates to push him over the top, or not have enough even then. In other words, it won't be known until the convention.
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Or, he can simply cut a deal with Kasich or Rubio, in exchange for the VP slot, to put him over the top. Either Kasich or Rubio has enough pledged delegates to make the difference. Either one of them would also make Trump more electable in the general election (helping to carry the must-win states of Ohio and Florida).

Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:17:39 AM EDT
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Quoted:

Looks like he picked up 89 delegates.

94% reporting

Donald Trump 89 Delegates

John Kasich 3 Delegates


Ted Cruz 0 Delegates
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I think trump will fall short by about 80 delegates ....Cruz will fall short by 300ish delegates...

Looks like he picked up 89 delegates.

94% reporting

Donald Trump 89 Delegates

John Kasich 3 Delegates


Ted Cruz 0 Delegates

I ment from 1237...
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:19:33 AM EDT
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Or, he can simply cut a deal with Kasich or Rubio, in exchange for the VP slot, to put him over the top. Either Kasich or Rubio has enough pledged delegates to make the difference. Either one of them would also make Trump more electable in the general election (helping to carry the must-win states of Ohio and Florida).

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He won't be. He will either go over 1237 after CA, end up short after CA with enough uncommitted delegates to push him over the top, or not have enough even then. In other words, it won't be known until the convention.


Or, he can simply cut a deal with Kasich or Rubio, in exchange for the VP slot, to put him over the top. Either Kasich or Rubio has enough pledged delegates to make the difference. Either one of them would also make Trump more electable in the general election (helping to carry the must-win states of Ohio and Florida).



That is correct. I would rather all 3 parties be brought to the table in a way that minimizes R in-fighting in November while maximizing turnout. At the same time the opposite needs to occur on the D side.
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:19:33 AM EDT
104 months (8 years + 8 months for the mathematically challenged).
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:20:53 AM EDT
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He isn't going to get 1237.
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Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:22:00 AM EDT
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He isn't going to get 1237.



He may, he may not. I am interested in seeing how your narrative changes if he does.
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:23:51 AM EDT
Cruz really took it on the chin tonight ...not a single delegate...
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:25:05 AM EDT
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He isn't going to get 1237.



Trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to hit 1237. Cruz needs 92% of the delegates left right now and after the 26th Cruz will never be able to hit 1237.
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:26:51 AM EDT
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Trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to hit 1237. Cruz needs 92% of the delegates left right now and after the 26th Cruz will never be able to hit 1237.
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He isn't going to get 1237.



Trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to hit 1237. Cruz needs 92% of the delegates left right now and after the 26th Cruz will never be able to hit 1237.


53% is quite attainable. That number goes down again next Tuesday
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:27:30 AM EDT
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How is Ted going to win? Seriously? He has no path.
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After people saw how low lyin cheatin Ted really is, Trump wins all 95 delegates in New York and will do the same in Pennsylvania.

He is on easy street to the nomination thanks to your Cuban messiah's low down dirty dealing with the GOPe.




How is Trump going to win in PA?  Only 17 delegates are bound.  The other 54 are unbound.  Cruz does much better at getting people supporting him chosen as unbound delegates than Trump.

 

How is Ted going to win? Seriously? He has no path.


Win what?  The unbound delegate race in the PA primary?  The GOP nomination?  The general election?

Regarding the general election:

-Wisconsin is definitely in play, and Cruz is endorsed by its governor.  It will be a close race, but Cruz has the potential to win there.  It's well within the margin of error right now.  Trump is way behind Cruz in the matchups against Clinton, by double digits.

-Iowa is also a close race that Cruz has the potential to win.

-Colorado is yet another state that may be in play for Cruz, as is Nevada.

-Pennsylvania is within the margin of error now for both Trump and Cruz, although both are still behind in the polling average, but in the latest polls both tie Clinton; it will be a highly competitive race, and Cruz has a good team assembled, designed to use many of the same tactics that Obama used to win, while Trump is still struggling to have any real campaign infrastructure.  It's definitely a potential Republican win either way, but Cruz has the better shot IMO.

-North Carolina is another close state where both Trump and Cruz, while behind Clinton, are well within the margin of error.  Again, given Cruz's better campaign infrastructure, he has a better shot at pushing past the post there.

-Ohio is yet another state within the margin of error.  If Kasich were to support Cruz as the nominee, I think there is the potential for a win there, but like just about every swing state, it will be hard fought.  Cruz does win some of the match-up polls against Clinton including the latest one I saw (again, within the margin of error); Trump wins none that I've seen, by comparison.

-Florida is yet another state within the margin of error, on average.  The data here is kind of stale, but if Cruz gets the States above he can win without Florida.  Trump does worse than Cruz in polling here against Clinton.

-I haven't seen data on Virginia yet, nor NH, but I doubt Cruz (or Trump for that matter) will do well there.  But again, if he gets the States listed above Florida, then he doesn't need either.

-Cruz is safe in every Red State.  He wins nearly all of them by larger margins than Trump, sometimes by much larger margins.  Trump actually ties or loses in some Red States against Clinton, such as Utah and Arizona, which increases what he needs to win elsewhere to win the election.  They are safe for Cruz.

-The above path, without FL, VA, or NH, gives Cruz 275 electoral votes.  It's within the realm of possibility, moreso than it is for Trump.  Cruz polls roughly equally or better than Trump in all of the stats where I've seen data.  Cruz also has a better campaign machine, turns off fewer Republicans, has a lower unfavourability rating overall, and doesn't motivate Democrats to come out just too vote against him.  It would be a hard fought race that doesn't have a guarantee for victory, but is still well within the realm of possibility. If he were to win in FL or VA, it would expand his margin or give him a buffer to possibly lose a smaller State or two above.

-If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, say hello to our new President Elect.  He trounces every Republican in the polls.  Kasich loses respectably, Trump loses by a massive landslide, while Cruz is somewhere in-between.

As far as the nomination goes, Cruz still has the potential to win enough delegates to block Trump on the first ballot.  Cruz has been getting a lot of his loyalists into both bound and unbound delegate slots.  Whole State delegations bound to Trump are comprised of Cruz loyalists.  On the second ballot Trump is going to lose way more delegates than Cruz, and Cruz is going to gain most of the delegates that Trump will lose.  Rubio's campaign has hinted that Rubio may ask his loyalists (and he does have some among the delegates) to support Cruz.  Rule 40 will likely stay intact given how the rules committee is likely to be formulated (and neither Trump nor Cruz have any incentive to get rid of it at this point), and if that happens, Cruz is likely to get what remains of the anti-Trump vote, even if they aren't pro-Cruz at heart.  I think Cruz is likely going to end up around 200 behind Trump, so it is very much possible for Cruz to take it on the second ballot.

Regarding PA, Cruz has a good ground game that has helped him in multiple races.  The way the majority of PA's delegates are chosen gives Cruz a good chance of getting a decent number of delegates.  I think him getting the largest number is within the realm of possibility, but not guaranteed.  But I don't think it will be a cakewalk for Trump under the circumstances.  Ironically, the bound delegates, if they go to Trump, are all chosen by the state GOP committee instead of the voters, which may not be good for Trump at a contested convention.
Link Posted: 4/20/2016 12:33:01 AM EDT
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Trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to hit 1237. Cruz needs 92% of the delegates left right now and after the 26th Cruz will never be able to hit 1237.
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He isn't going to get 1237.



Trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to hit 1237. Cruz needs 92% of the delegates left right now and after the 26th Cruz will never be able to hit 1237.


There are 623 delegates up for grabs through the remaining primaries. Trump needs 63% of those.
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