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Posted: 4/2/2016 9:47:42 PM EST
Every state leans to one party or the other. The candidates rarely even matter. The only way you break that bias is with home court advantage by the candidate or his running mate. Texas is already Red, no home state gains there. Does he pick a VP from Florida, Michigan, Ohio?

It appears to me there's nothing dynamic enough about Cruz that he picks up blue states on his personality, charm or policies.

Those who know Cruz best, what blue states does he pick up and why.

Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:50:59 PM EST
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:51:24 PM EST
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.

Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:53:38 PM EST
I think he would have to have someone like Kasich as VP to help pick up swing states. OH, PA, FL, VA will be the real test in the election.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:57:22 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doingTrump supporters doing.
View Quote

FIFY..
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:57:28 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By rfm05:
I think he would have to have someone like Kasich as VP to help pick up swing states. OH, PA, FL, VA will be the real test in the election.
View Quote


PA has been blue for 30 years and that is not going to change this cycle.

OH, FL, and VA are critical. We won't win without them.

I think Ohio would be the easiest, FL and VA will be very tough.

Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:57:30 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another.
View Quote


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 9:58:09 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.

View Quote

We'll see how tuesday goes, but I really think a guy like Cruz could bring WI into play in the general. Conservatives are pretty damn well organized here, especially after weathering the liberal shit storms that came about with Walker cutting them off.

I think ohio is in play this go round, they went blue last time and things have only gotten worse, I'd hope they see the error of their ways. Florida will be difficult regardless of who the candidate is.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:03:25 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
View Quote
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:09:03 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Fish1856:

We'll see how tuesday goes, but I really think a guy like Cruz could bring WI into play in the general. Conservatives are pretty damn well organized here, especially after weathering the liberal shit storms that came about with Walker cutting them off.

I think ohio is in play this go round, they went blue last time and things have only gotten worse, I'd hope they see the error of their ways. Florida will be difficult regardless of who the candidate is.
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Originally Posted By Fish1856:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.


We'll see how tuesday goes, but I really think a guy like Cruz could bring WI into play in the general. Conservatives are pretty damn well organized here, especially after weathering the liberal shit storms that came about with Walker cutting them off.

I think ohio is in play this go round, they went blue last time and things have only gotten worse, I'd hope they see the error of their ways. Florida will be difficult regardless of who the candidate is.


I think the only way conservatives win in Ohio or Wisconsin is by getting moderate/independents to vote for their guy. We have to assume both parties get out the base and the Dems have the bigger base in those states.

How does Cruz do that though? Try to appeal to Latinos who would otherwise vote Democrat maybe?
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:11:53 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By StevenH:


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.
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Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another.


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.


Oh I agree.

I don't think PA & Michigan have even been considered purple for a long time. They haven't voted republican since 1988.

Personally I think Virginia is probably a blue state and went right from red to blue without ever really being a purple state. Obama twice, and McAuliffe as governor.

I think Ohio is possibly still a swing state. It voted for Reagan/Bush I, then Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and lastly Obama twice. It has the history of going back and forth.

Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:16:40 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....
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Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....


I was a Cruz fan though I am less enamored with him than I used to be.

However I'll vote for either Cruz or Trump when the time comes. But I absolutely won't vote for a third RINO if the party hijacks it from the will of the people and gives it to Ryan or Kasich.



Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:27:18 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:


Oh I agree.

I don't think PA & Michigan have even been considered purple for a long time. They haven't voted republican since 1988.

Personally I think Virginia is probably a blue state and went right from red to blue without ever really being a purple state. Obama twice, and McAuliffe as governor.

I think Ohio is possibly still a swing state. It voted for Reagan/Bush I, then Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and lastly Obama twice. It has the history of going back and forth.

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Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another.


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.


Oh I agree.

I don't think PA & Michigan have even been considered purple for a long time. They haven't voted republican since 1988.

Personally I think Virginia is probably a blue state and went right from red to blue without ever really being a purple state. Obama twice, and McAuliffe as governor.

I think Ohio is possibly still a swing state. It voted for Reagan/Bush I, then Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and lastly Obama twice. It has the history of going back and forth.



Interesting.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:32:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/2/2016 10:33:24 PM EST by StevenH]
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:35:20 PM EST
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Originally Posted By StevenH:


Interesting.
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Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another.


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.


Oh I agree.

I don't think PA & Michigan have even been considered purple for a long time. They haven't voted republican since 1988.

Personally I think Virginia is probably a blue state and went right from red to blue without ever really being a purple state. Obama twice, and McAuliffe as governor.

I think Ohio is possibly still a swing state. It voted for Reagan/Bush I, then Clinton twice, then Bush twice, and lastly Obama twice. It has the history of going back and forth.



Interesting.


Also interesting that not only has Ohio went back and forth, back and forth every time it choose the winner.
Looks like since 1896 its only not picked the winner in 1944 and 1960.
Interesting article.

http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-when-it-comes-choosing-presidents-youre-it-no-doubt-about-it#stream/0


Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:36:13 PM EST
It's easy to get the results you want when the voting machines are rigged.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:37:10 PM EST
[Last Edit: 4/2/2016 10:55:48 PM EST by 74AKZ]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By StevenH:
My cruz map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mlrjg
View Quote


I find that possible except I do not think he will take Florida.

It would really weird if he did take Ohio and lost but I guess every tradition needs breaking at some point.

I would lean toward this map though I wouldn't be shocked if Ohio went GOP.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/5WrnX
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:54:35 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:


I find that possible except I do not think he will take Florida.

It would really weird if he did take Ohio and lost but I guess every tradition needs breaking at some point.



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Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
Originally Posted By StevenH:
My cruz map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mlrjg


I find that possible except I do not think he will take Florida.

It would really weird if he did take Ohio and lost but I guess every tradition needs breaking at some point.





Unfortunately a Republican can win Ohio and Florida both and still lose, in theory.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 10:57:12 PM EST
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Originally Posted By StevenH:


Unfortunately a Republican can win Ohio and Florida both and still lose, in theory.
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Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
Originally Posted By StevenH:
My cruz map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mlrjg


I find that possible except I do not think he will take Florida.

It would really weird if he did take Ohio and lost but I guess every tradition needs breaking at some point.





Unfortunately a Republican can win Ohio and Florida both and still lose, in theory.


Yes like I said above he will need Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and another smaller state like Iowa, Nevada, or Wisconsin. Its a tough map, and why I think we're screwed.

What I meant about Ohio being weird, is just because Ohio almost never votes with the loser. But in theory its possible.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 11:00:48 PM EST
The only chance to win this election is for Trump to pull his head out of his ass and the GOP to break away from global interest. Hell will freeze over first.
Link Posted: 4/2/2016 11:01:46 PM EST
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Originally Posted By AEROMechanic:

FIFY..
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Originally Posted By AEROMechanic:
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doingTrump supporters doing.

FIFY..



Hahaha let that hateful butthurt flow, let's just get it over with and have an all out fire fight over a couple of fuck head politicians.

When will people realize that Trump and his bullshit are a product of our fucked up politicians, all those "uninformed" voters that ARFCOM loves to hate on are just tired of the bullshit just like you.


Link Posted: 4/3/2016 1:01:03 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....
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Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....


True. Not this Cruz guy (if you want to call me that, he's the least of all the evils). I'll vote whoever has the R behind his name, because its that important.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 3:38:17 AM EST
[Last Edit: 4/3/2016 3:45:32 AM EST by NY12ga]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:


True. Not this Cruz guy (if you want to call me that, he's the least of all the evils). I'll vote whoever has the R behind his name, because its that important.
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Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....


True. Not this Cruz guy (if you want to call me that, he's the least of all the evils). I'll vote whoever has the R behind his name, because its that important.


This. X1000

You guys are all overthinking this. This election will be determined by the weather on Election Day. Nothing more and nothing less. Let me explain-

The majority of Republicans who are disgusted with the past 7 years of having a subversive, leftist, usurper in charge and a bunch of RINOs enabling him are going to come out and vote come hell or high water. No ifs, ands, or buts. Especially after so many assumed the numbers were on their side last time and may have been lackadaisical about showing up. And let's not forget that election happened just before the anti-gun push after Sandy Hook, the anti-police and pro-criminal push, and the many other injustices we've been forced to endure. Theyll show up because they're fed up. They'll show up because they know that the future of the SCOTUS is at stake. They'll show up to salvage America.

The Democrats on the other hand are on shaky ground. For one thing there's a growing albeit small portion of the smarter and older ones who have come to realize that they've been duped, that "hope" is not a plan, and that we've never been weaker on the world stage. They may dream of a perfect Hillary but they don't trust her, and will stay home or not with little passion other than for potentially wanting to stop Trump from winning. Then there are the young dreamers who seem to buy into Bernie's promises- but they only get involved if someone pays them $15 an hour to protest, so whether they can take the bong off their face long enough to bother voting remains to be seen. Then there's their minority vote- who may show up in some numbers for what Bernie promises but without much passion, but there is no way in hell they'll show up in record numbers like the last two elections just to vote for an old, fat, rich and out of touch white woman who couldn't give two fucks about them- or for that matter about anyone else who can't make her richer.

To me it's as simple as "rain or shine" that will determine how many of these last two groups of Dems will show up, and that that factor alone will have enough influence to sway the election either way
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 3:42:33 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....
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Originally Posted By AZ_Sky:
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
I think think you could say the same thing about Cruz supporters....

BTW, I'm neither a Trump nor a Cruz fan, mainly because of the attitude of both of their supporters....

Meh, just because some vote for a liberal, progressive POS doesn't mean the rest have to. Even if he did just join after supporting progressives for most of his life.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:10:26 AM EST
[Last Edit: 4/3/2016 8:14:24 AM EST by vintovka]
McCain was old, tired, poorly advised, a RINO and broke, If you voted for him you were a racist.

Romney was running against a siting US president.

Cruz can neutralize the Hispanic vote for the dems, and unless the blacks (African Americans?) come out the way they did for Obama Hillary will probably lose.

She is a weak candidate. If Cruz picks Kasich as a VP they can probably swing Ohio



Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:11:50 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
View Quote
We also have to hope a lot of the Bernie supporters will stay home when Hillary gets the nomination.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:14:48 AM EST
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Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.

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Yes
If we get trump or cruz we have a chance.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:14:50 AM EST
He's going to use his wife's Illuminati/NWO connections, duh
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:15:15 AM EST
Cruz can't even win States Romney won
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:19:35 AM EST
Hell Rubio did much better (8 points) than Cruz did in Virginia.....No-fucking-way Cruz would ever win here. He has a non-existent "base" here.

Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:21:15 AM EST
Hillary is NOT Obama and might not be turning out the base as much............plus Cruz might bring out the base.

The media, democrats and GOPe are serious enemies though and that hurts Cruz.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:32:34 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman:
By bringing out the base. Howver when Trump doesn't get the nomination I am sure many Trump tards just won't vote, negating the base effect. We really are fucked, and it's by our own doing.
View Quote


I don't know why you think people wouldn't be justifiably enraged if Trump is robbed of the nomination. I would be thrilled to vote for Trump OR Cruz, but these games are bullshit. The GOPe could have stopped McStain or Romney from getting more than 50% of the delegates with this kind of effort too. Instead, they pressured all of the other candidates to drop out, so the party could be unified. Trump has been far more dominant than either, so the party could have just rallied around him, and made their peace with the wishes of the voters. Instead they are throwing an absolute temper tantrum.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:34:35 AM EST
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Originally Posted By rfm05:
I think he would have to have someone like Kasich as VP to help pick up swing states. OH, PA, FL, VA will be the real test in the election.
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Pretty sure a Cruz/Kasich ticket would not win PA.

As of a few weeks ago about 50,000 PA dems changed parties to vote for Trump, blue collar former "Reagan Democrats". If he's screwed by the Globalsits controlling the RNC then they vote Dem, not to mention the millions of Trump voters who stay home after they are told their vote doesn't count.

The RNC has already stated they will not allow Cruz to take the nomination unless he too passes the 1237 mark. Those thinking the RNC is going to install Cruz are delusional, he's only being used to deny Trump delegates like Kasich. So those voting for Cruz at this point to deny Trump delegates are in all reality supporting Romney or Ryan as it will be some Globalist shit stain like that will be who the RNC installs if Trump falls short of 1237.

Trump or a Romney/Clinton clone? Thats what you are choosing right now. Cruz is being used as tool to keep the Globalist pig trough open along with the borders.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:37:56 AM EST
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Originally Posted By rfm05:
I think he would have to have someone like Kasich as VP to help pick up swing states. OH, PA, FL, VA will be the real test in the election.
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Why do you people think that limp noodles like Kasich are the key to swing states lol? Yes, he would help with Ohio, but ONLY Ohio. The only reason he is polling well against the Democrats right now is because NOBODY has attacked him. He seems like a nice enough guy to the voters, and nobody is really saying anything bad about him so it's "hmmm, Kasich seems ok" when they are polled. Do you think that would be the case in the general election lol? ONCE AGAIN, it would be "John Kasich is the LEADER of the war on women. John Kasich is a member of the KKK. John Kasich personally BBQed LGTBQs!" That's what will be said about EVERY Republican Presidential nominee. The antidote is to either massively drum up support from your own base, or be so well known that you can't be defined by the Democratic candidate's campaign or the media.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:39:17 AM EST
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Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.

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Why do a lot of folks automatically assume a huge Democrat turnout this November? Do you think Blacks are going to turn out for this election
like they did for the last two?

I do agree with you 100% that America has a strong yearning for a Conservative POTUS; every time one has been on the ballot, turnout has been
overwhelming. Senator Cruz is WAY more Conservative than Nixon or even Reagan was. If he is the Republican nominee, the difference between
him and the Democrat nominee will be stark and unmistakable.

This is just my opinion, though; take it for what it is worth.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:39:36 AM EST
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Originally Posted By StevenH:


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.
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Originally Posted By StevenH:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another.


Even traditionally Purple states are becoming less purple. Older voters more likely to vote Republican die and are replaced with younger voters more likely to vote Democrat.

Florida is still in theory purple. But i think Michigan, Ohio, PA are blue for good now. Getting out the base is important but its the undecided/moderates/independants that decide elections.


The key for the Republicans is increasing their share of the white vote. The real key is eliminating large scale immigration so the white share of the electorate stops decreasing, but that would be racist and smart, so it's doubly awful to the Republican brain trust.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:42:35 AM EST
Originally Posted By StevenH:
Every state leans to one party or the other. The candidates rarely even matter. The only way you break that bias is with home court advantage by the candidate or his running mate. Texas is already Red, no home state gains there. Does he pick a VP from Florida, Michigan, Ohio?

It appears to me there's nothing dynamic enough about Cruz that he picks up blue states on his personality, charm or policies.

Those who know Cruz best, what blue states does he pick up and why.

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If you cannot understand the difference between Cruz and Romney/McCain, please, please, please learn and understand the difference before you vote. Thanks for asking. I hope this thread delivers.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:42:53 AM EST
Cruz would get slaughtered. And the Cruzbots are already blaming it on Trump supporters
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:44:45 AM EST
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Originally Posted By gym007:
Cruz would get slaughtered. And the Cruzbots are already blaming it on Trump supporters
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You don't know that.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:45:31 AM EST
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Originally Posted By gym007:
Cruz would get slaughtered. And the Cruzbots are already blaming it on Trump supporters
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lol
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:46:41 AM EST
Swing states
------------
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada (no data)
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Play around with this to figure out which states are necessary to win: http://www.270towin.com/

Florida is absolutely essential to any republican. Lose Florida, lose the election. Ohio slightly less so; lose Ohio and you have to win Pennsylvania, which is a tougher fight. Cruz is more competitive in Ohio. If Cruz can take Florida (his hardest battle), then he'll need Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and either Wisconsin or Nevada to pass 270. That is entirely doable. It's a reasonable path that doesn't require miracles or black swan events, and gives you a limited set of targets upon which to concentrate your resources, with the schwerpunkt being Florida.

When it comes to actually getting the votes, mostly what is going to be necessary is name recognition. Cruz has been largely drowned out by Trump. There are plenty of mushy middle voters who have never even heard of the guy. Most folks just know Bernie, Hillary, & Trump, and when given those choices they tend to lean left. Give them a reasonable alternative to Hillary and they'll go for it. Remember, Hillary is one of the most unliked candidates running. Literally the only person liked less than Hillary is Trump. So 'not Trump' already gives the Rs an advantage. A little more name recognition on the national stage and I'm pretty confident that Cruz's standing against Hillary would improve by the necessary few percentage points.

Another part of it is getting the right to turn out. As we can see from this very forum, lots of conservatives are completely disgusted and embarrassed by Trump, and despite claims that they'll take a bite of the shit sandwich come election day, odds are lots of them won't find the enthusiasm to go to the polls, and will find some excuse. Especially when Hillary is sure to win against Trump; it's hard to force yourself to give up your evening to go stand in line to vote for someone you can't stand, especially given his certain defeat. Cruz gives those people someone they can actually stomach voting for, and who has a very good shot at actually winning.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:47:35 AM EST
Cruz is not winning shit

Seriously......wake up and smell the coffee.

How do you guys convince yourself with this shit?!!
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:51:06 AM EST
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Originally Posted By Drsalee:
Cruz is not winning shit

Seriously......wake up and smell the coffee.

How do you guys convince yourself with this shit?!!
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This.
Cruz doing his goofy ass preacher on a pulpit campaign complete with accented growly emphasis on key words wins no one over.
I will vote for him if he makes it but certainly he will not have much or any crossover/new/first time voters like trump does
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:55:42 AM EST
My general election vote will be in Ohio..been away from the state for 8 years....I will hold my nose and vote for the R canidate.


With that being said...The 3 Big C's and Dayton tend to out vote the entire state.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 8:57:19 AM EST
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Originally Posted By 69cutlass:


This.
Cruz doing his goofy ass preacher on a pulpit campaign complete with accented growly emphasis on key words wins no one over.
I will vote for him if he makes it but certainly he will not have much or any crossover/new/first time voters like trump does
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Originally Posted By 69cutlass:
Originally Posted By Drsalee:
Cruz is not winning shit

Seriously......wake up and smell the coffee.

How do you guys convince yourself with this shit?!!


This.
Cruz doing his goofy ass preacher on a pulpit campaign complete with accented growly emphasis on key words wins no one over.
I will vote for him if he makes it but certainly he will not have much or any crossover/new/first time voters like trump does

I don't think you understand just how many people loathe Trump.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:17:49 AM EST
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Originally Posted By bagofcrabs65:

I don't think you understand just how many people loathe Trump.
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Originally Posted By bagofcrabs65:
Originally Posted By 69cutlass:
Originally Posted By Drsalee:
Cruz is not winning shit

Seriously......wake up and smell the coffee.

How do you guys convince yourself with this shit?!!


This.
Cruz doing his goofy ass preacher on a pulpit campaign complete with accented growly emphasis on key words wins no one over.
I will vote for him if he makes it but certainly he will not have much or any crossover/new/first time voters like trump does

I don't think you understand just how many people loathe Trump.


You may be right.
I enjoy him upsetting the cart and beating the system at its own game
watching the TV pundits looks of concern, crowing about apparent missteps and generally doing anything they can to bring trump down.
I hope he gets enough delegates outright and shoves it right down the establishments throat
He making his business to take their business and they can do very little about it
Maybe he loses in the end but considering what's been going down since the whole thing started I have a hard time seeing him fail.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:19:59 AM EST
The women's vote gets more important every year. My small sample is my wife and a couple of her friends who are conservatives.

None of them like Cruz from the get go. Creepy, smarmy etc. Trump is a clown. Kasich is Democrat light and that leaves?
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:20:02 AM EST
Winning this and future elections comes down to pulling the independent votes to a particular side. Most of the poles are very poor at sampling those people. How many on ARFcom members slam the phone when you get another robocall political survey? The are still few reliable surveys and the good ones struggle to get their samples. The Don and Hillary shows have the top media ratings, but that does not equal voter loyalty.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:22:24 AM EST
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Originally Posted By gym007:
Cruz would get slaughtered. And the Cruzbots are already blaming it on Trump supporters
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Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:23:18 AM EST
He doesn't (and neither does Trump).

Next thread.
Link Posted: 4/3/2016 9:34:13 AM EST
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Originally Posted By Papaw:


Why do a lot of folks automatically assume a huge Democrat turnout this November? Do you think Blacks are going to turn out for this election
like they did for the last two?

I do agree with you 100% that America has a strong yearning for a Conservative POTUS; every time one has been on the ballot, turnout has been
overwhelming. Senator Cruz is WAY more Conservative than Nixon or even Reagan was. If he is the Republican nominee, the difference between
him and the Democrat nominee will be stark and unmistakable.

This is just my opinion, though; take it for what it is worth.
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Originally Posted By Papaw:
Originally Posted By 74AKZ:
For the most part you are correct, but there is a few states that are purple states and could possibly swing one way or the another. That is how the election is decided.

If you aren't in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and a few others your vote really doesn't matter.

Sadly the democrats start with about 250 electoral votes, and IIRC the GOP is about 190.

The GOP absolutely to win the three swing states I listed above and also has to pick off a smaller value state like Nevada or Iowa.

It is going to be very hard, and why I think a democrat victory is likely.

However it is possible that the right guy, Cruz or Trump could win. We haven't tried a real conservative like Cruz for a very long time, nor someone like Trump.

I guarantee we would lose with another limp RINO like Bush or Romney. No chance.



Why do a lot of folks automatically assume a huge Democrat turnout this November? Do you think Blacks are going to turn out for this election
like they did for the last two?

I do agree with you 100% that America has a strong yearning for a Conservative POTUS; every time one has been on the ballot, turnout has been
overwhelming. Senator Cruz is WAY more Conservative than Nixon or even Reagan was. If he is the Republican nominee, the difference between
him and the Democrat nominee will be stark and unmistakable.

This is just my opinion, though; take it for what it is worth.


I am not assuming a huge democrat turnout.

I think demographics and politics have shifted enough where they will probably win without massive turnout.

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