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Posted: 8/10/2005 3:39:32 PM EDT
I was driving home from work today and noticed that the price of a gallon of gas went up $0.15 per gallon since this morning. I keep hearing that oil supplies are dwindling (not really sure who to believe), that China has just surpassed the US in oil consumption, and that trend will continue to grow.

If this is true, we are in for big trouble in the future. I believe that "alternative energy sources" are a crock of shit, and that oil is the only game in town. Electricity and Hydrogen fuel production will still require an energy source to generate, and most people don't seem to realize this. Conservation will help for some time, but will only delay the inevitable - We are in the begining of a fight for our life over control of the world's remaining oil reserves.

Therefore, I think that the only way to survive as a superpower (or even as an economically sustainable country), is to slow down China's demand for oil so that we can continue to survive. If China's economy is allowed to continue in the direction they are headed, they will be calling the shots in the world, not us.

Aside from refusing to buy Chinese made products (an impossibility at this point), and war, what can be done? I can't bring myself to advocate an eventual war because I'm not in the military and never have been, therefore my life would not be on the line. I would feel like a hypoccrite(sp?).

NOTE: I'm not a "peak oil" weirdo, an environmental wacko, or a peacenik, so don't take my post that way. I'm looking to learn a thing or two and hear some opinions, that's all.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:41:19 PM EDT
Either beat them in the marketplace (find a way to outproduce them and/or flood their markets and/or make it harder for them to flood ours)...or there's always canned sunshine
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:42:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 3:43:16 PM EDT by Paul]
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:43:58 PM EDT
There isnt much that we can do about it. We do not control the flow of oil so we have no real say in who gets it. I believe that it will not be long either before china targets siberia for an invasion either. All of those natural resources are a tempting target for China's growing economy.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:44:08 PM EDT
Stop buying there shit.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:44:14 PM EDT
stop selling high tech equipment to Isreal, never ever elect another Democrat for President, and raise the import taxes against them to ridiculous levels.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:45:18 PM EDT
Get them to send all their manufacturing to Vietnam??
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:49:14 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Bob1984:
Either beat them in the marketplace (find a way to outproduce them and/or flood their markets and/or make it harder for them to flood ours)...or there's always canned sunshine



I didn't want to say it, but it might come down to canned sunshine in the future. I was thinking more along the lines of Taiwan getting invaded and responding with missles (secretly supplied by us). This way, China will be sent back to the stone age, and no US troops need to die. I hate to sound like an evil madman, but I'm only laying out the most extreme and unlikely scenario.

Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:51:18 PM EDT
thats easy, we'll just pull a number 9 on em!
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:51:42 PM EDT
Well, we reduce the minimum wage to a dollar a day, employ children, eliminate enviornmental law, work safety law, unions, healthcare (get somebody with a first-aid card to hand out aspirin, benedryl or ant-acid and call them a doctor). Then we work for 10-12 hours a day, 6 days a week and grow our own food in our backyards.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:52:47 PM EDT
Well....we could tell them that all their base is are now belong to us, I'm sure that'll take care of it
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:54:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By nirvana:
thats easy, we'll just pull a number 9 on em!



The chicken chow mein? That was the worst MRE ever devised by man.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 3:56:04 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lu380:
I didn't want to say it, but it might come down to canned sunshine in the future. I was thinking more along the lines of Taiwan getting invaded and responding with missles (secretly supplied by us). This way, China will be sent back to the stone age, and no US troops need to die. I hate to sound like an evil madman, but I'm only laying out the most extreme and unlikely scenario.




newsflash Taiwan has got so many missles its not even funny. They've even got air bases built inside of mountains for one way trips to Peking/Bejing. For a realistic answer see my first post.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:05:08 PM EDT
eliminating most favored trade status might help
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:07:36 PM EDT
Airdrop Porn and Playstations. They'll be destroyed in less than 10yrs.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:08:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 4:08:32 PM EDT by H46Driver]
Opium worked pretty well for the Brits.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:09:17 PM EDT
There really isn't much we can do. We cannot compete with their economy, since on a purely economic level, we simply will not manufacture and export goods at a low input value as they do. Since they hold such a huge amount of our debt for us, it would be economic suicide to undermine their economy in any way. We obviously can't do anything militarily, so it seems all we can do at the moment is hold on and wait and see what happens. They are already looking ahead to and planning for any disruptions in their energy supply via shipping lanes in the straits of Malacca and Sunda, so I don't know. Seems like they are further ahead in planning for the future than we are. Apparently, we have gotten ourselves quite preoccupied with the situation in the Iraqi neighborhood while other countries are planning ahead for future conflicts with us.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:09:42 PM EDT
Teach them the Chinese version of Ebonics.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:10:13 PM EDT
all this problem began 10 years ago with nafta and gatt give a big thnks to clinton and anyone dem or republican that would vote America future good bye
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:11:54 PM EDT
I don't think we really need to. In the first place, we should beat them in the marketplace. If we can't do that, then we don't deserve to win.

As for energy, I don't think it's much of a problem. It only accelerates the inevitable process a bit. As oil gets harder to recover, the price of it will rise. The more this happens, the more money will be invested in development for better energy sources. Eventually, something better will be discovered and oil will become uneconomical and be replaced.


Originally Posted By lu380:
I believe that "alternative energy sources" are a crock of shit, and that oil is the only game in town. Electricity and Hydrogen fuel production will still require an energy source to generate, and most people don't seem to realize this.



Congratulations, sir, you have a clue. This puts you ahead of many people who make much more money than either of us.

The whole concept of "alternative energy" is flawed. People will never switch en masse to "alternative" energy exactly because it's alternative. Some other kind of energy is more economical, but a few people think we should use the uneconomical "alternative" source instead for other reasons, usually political. The answer is not alternative energy, but better energy - an energy source that is actually more economical then oil. Nuclear (especially Fusion) and Solar (with collectors several generations ahead of anything we have now) have the potential to be it.

Now, the peak oil guys out there are predicting some kind of doomesday as oil becomes uneconomical. I don't see this happening. The replacement of oil should be a gradual, smooth process. At worst, there would be a gradual rise in energy prices that would be with us for a while. This would make some things that we do now uneconomical, and make other things that we don't do now economical again, as has happened thousands of times at various scales without any doomesday scenarios. But I don't expect even this to happen.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:12:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 4:12:26 PM EDT by Phil_A_Steen]
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:12:41 PM EDT

Originally Posted By VTwin60:

Originally Posted By lu380:
I didn't want to say it, but it might come down to canned sunshine in the future. I was thinking more along the lines of Taiwan getting invaded and responding with missles (secretly supplied by us). This way, China will be sent back to the stone age, and no US troops need to die. I hate to sound like an evil madman, but I'm only laying out the most extreme and unlikely scenario.




newsflash Taiwan has got so many missles its not even funny. They've even got air bases built inside of mountains for one way trips to Peking/Bejing. For a realistic answer see my first post.





Import tariffs will only have the desired effect if every other developed nation imposes them as well (at least that's what I think). It'll help some if the US imposes high tariffs, but what about markets in the rest of the world? What's China's current trade status with them?

I don't know all the details of Israel's arms sales to China. I'll have to read about that some more.

Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:13:05 PM EDT

Originally Posted By BUCKEYEBULLET:
all this problem began 10 years ago with nafta and gatt give a big thnks to clinton and anyone dem or republican that would vote America future good bye



The NA in NAFTA stands for North America. China was not included in NAFTA. BTW, NAFTA was built by Bush 41. Clinton put it through Congress only with major Republican support. Dems were largely against.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:14:52 PM EDT
The only ethical and logically thing to do is to have trade policy which mirrors the country in question. In fact wouldn't the world have been different if we treated the Japanese like they treated us starting in the 80's. In fact if we just mirrored everyone elses trade policy right back at them... it would be a better deal for us.

I call it my .. Do to them as they do to us... Trade Policy.

Example:
1. China does not allow American Companies (Any for that matter) to own their factories or property in China. (WE DO THE SAME)
2. China puts tariffs on things that comes into their country. (WE DO THE SAME) interesting exception below.

These examples below are what our products have been hit with. We are the ONLY U.S. Manufacture left in our industry.

*China has a NO to 25% tariff depending on if the product is a prototype for reproduction or is being sold to an end user; I shit you not... We have been asked on three occasions to send product to manufacturing Trade Shows in China to show and tell how our product works. NEVER WILL DO IT!

* France has 33% tariff on our American goods going into their country.

* Japan has 27% to 35% tariff on our American goods going into their country.

* Mexico has no tariffs (NAFTA) on our U.S. goods going into their country. But it must be said on many occassions they are so shocked a U.S. Manufactured good is going the other way. 9 times out of 10 we get a phone call from the Mexican Customs / Agent to see if the orgin of goods are legit.


China is just winning at our own game. Don't get mad at China... we just need to play the game better. Do to them as they do to us.

Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:15:44 PM EDT
Nuke them before they buy all our real estate.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:17:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 4:18:30 PM EDT by TheCynic]
"Shall we play a game?"
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:17:20 PM EDT
Its been too long to keep China from being a superpower. If Nixon had left them behind their wall, it might not have happened as it has, at least in our lifetime. They are too powerful now, and Western companies have no much of a financial interest in the cheap labor pool there for things to ever return to what they used to be.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:24:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 4:33:03 PM EDT by Janus]

Originally Posted By lu380:
I was driving home from work today and noticed that the price of a gallon of gas went up $0.15 per gallon since this morning. I keep hearing that oil supplies are dwindling (not really sure who to believe), that China has just surpassed the US in oil consumption, and that trend will continue to grow.




Complete bullshit. China consumes 6 million barrels a day and at their current growth rate will take ~25 years to reach our present oil consumtion figures. (~21 million barrels a day)

China's oil consumption dropped 1% in the 2nd quater compared to last years 2nd quarter.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:26:10 PM EDT
two words:

ROSS PEROT!
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:27:15 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lu380:

Import tariffs will only have the desired effect if every other developed nation imposes them as well (at least that's what I think). It'll help some if the US imposes high tariffs, but what about markets in the rest of the world? What's China's current trade status with them?

I don't know all the details of Israel's arms sales to China. I'll have to read about that some more.




we're the number 1 consumer by far. At least we all know what a POS Clinton was.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:32:14 PM EDT
Starve the dragon.
Take our business elsewhere(India).
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:33:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Starve the dragon.
Take our business elsewhere(India).



yeah thats a good idea, from one former USSR ally to another....
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:34:47 PM EDT

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Starve the dragon.
Take our business elsewhere(India).



I hear that India is consuming record amounts of oil as well.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:35:33 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lu380:

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Starve the dragon.
Take our business elsewhere(India).



I hear that India is consuming record amounts of oil as well.



5 million barrels a day compared to our 21 million.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:35:36 PM EDT
Export bitchy whining American girls to China! That'll slow 'em down! Aned they're short on women anyway because they kill 'em to comply with communist government regulations.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:38:48 PM EDT
...drop chinese speaking liberals on them. The cultural rot will start almost immediately.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:42:33 PM EDT
We can't...
Start learning Chinese [putonghua]...

myitinaw
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:53:58 PM EDT
Just keep doing what we are doing.
Turn them into good capitalist!!
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 4:55:26 PM EDT
Western television shows. That'll fuel their greed for our stuff. They'll want to be just like us. Internal disorder follows. Revolution. Downfall of communism. Warlord state establishes itself. We win.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:12:31 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:21:41 PM EDT
"Undermine" is not the right strategy... Cooperation will bring us all gains from trade.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:29:05 PM EDT
China + 1000 W88's = Out of business sale at Walmart

Disconnector
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:31:23 PM EDT
Make good friends with India.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:43:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 5:46:44 PM EDT by xcell]
Why would anyone switch to an alternate source anyways? Our state wants to put GPS's on car s that run on half electric now becuase they want to be able to get their tax out of you one way or another.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:46:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Paul:
Pipe M-TV to them. Get their people to do coke, meth, and crack. Convince their children to have out of wedlock babies. Convince their children to drop out of school, to not learn how to spell, to pierce their faces ...

... and open their borders to illegal aliens, and disarm their citizens, stop that silly capitalism trend going on now
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:47:31 PM EDT

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
Make good friends with India.



another one who trades one Soviet Bloc partner for another
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 5:50:08 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Paul:
Pipe M-TV to them. Get their people to do coke, meth, and crack. Convince their children to have out of wedlock babies. Convince their children to drop out of school, to not learn how to spell, to pierce their faces ...



Yep. I think you're on to something...
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 6:35:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By VTwin60:

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Starve the dragon.
Take our business elsewhere(India).



yeah thats a good idea, from one former USSR ally to another....



China=commie
India= democracy.
Which do we support? Check open sources and you'll see moves are being made to contain the chi-coms. India is the natural counter-balance to china.
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 6:35:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/10/2005 6:38:53 PM EDT by R-32]
Honestly...

Im O.K. with removing China from the map myself...

Otherwise, we better stop being so soft on our children, and being so scared of the politicaly correct crowd...
Link Posted: 8/10/2005 6:44:26 PM EDT
Two ideas:
1) send the DemocRAT party to them, free of charge. Actually, they can take the fake WA "governor" as a bonus.
2) export the "reality shows" to them also free of charge.


Now serious... just look History. Every "Empire" arises and declines. There's none in History that lasted forever. Maybe the longest one was the Roman Empire. Before the US Britain had an Empire "where the Sun never set". If not China it will be someone else. But it will take a while since they have their own internal problems to solve before thinking about "superpower" dreams. And they already had their chance a long time ago...


Link Posted: 8/10/2005 6:54:18 PM EDT
This is what a desperate Dragon does....





Japan suspects China may have began drilling gas in disputed waters
The Japanese government suspects China has begun drilling gas in the East China Sea along a disputed sea border, and has asked Beijing to stop, officials said Wednesday.

Japan and China have been feuding over claims to undersea gas deposits in the East China Sea and the delineation of their exclusive economic zones in the area.

Trade Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said Japanese officials detected what they thought were signs that the Chinese had started drilling in the area and complained through diplomatic channels on Tuesday.

"There was a strong possibility that (China) has started drilling gas, so we asked China to confirm and ... stop drilling," Nakagawa told reporters. He said Japan has not received "satisfactory replies" from China.

Meanwhile, a company that was granted drilling rights by the Japanese government last month has completed the registration process to become a licensed drilling company, according to a branch of the trade ministry in southern Japan.

An official of the Kyushu Bureau, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Teikoku Oil Co. has paid about 10 million yen ($89,000) in licensing tax as of Aug. 3.

If Teikoku decides to start drilling, however, it still needs to submit a business plan which has to be approved by the bureau, the official said, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Tokyo and Beijing have been clashing over the undersea gas deposits amid a broader diplomatic row that has soured bilateral relations in recent months.

The gas dispute stems from a disagreement over how much sea resources the two sides can claim in the East China Sea, which divides China's eastern coast and Japan's southern island chain of Okinawa.

Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, coastal countries can claim an economic zone extending 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from their shores. Both Japan and China signed the treaty, but the United Nations has until May 2009 to rule on the claims.

Beijing also bases its claim on a separate international treaty that lets coastal countries extend their borders to the edge of the undersea continental shelf.

China has already built a drilling platform west of the line that Japan regards as the two sides' sea boundary. Tokyo has repeatedly demanded that Beijing stop exploration over worries that reserves on the Japanese side might be sucked dry.

Teikoku Oil already applied in 1969 and 1970 to drill in the area but Thursday's approval applies to a more specific region based on studies the company conducted in the 1980s and research carried out by the Japanese government, according to Teikoku Oil. (AP)

August 10, 2005



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