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Posted: 9/15/2009 2:21:42 AM EST
I’ve seen a few people here claim there were over a million people at the DC protest. Some even claimed there were 1.5 million people. But everywhere else I looked I found numbers nowhere close to that. About 150,000 seemed to be the norm.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:23:45 AM EST
Limbaugh said yesterday that the numbers exceeded the corination of Obammy.

As reported by the London press.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:29:25 AM EST
If there were more people there than the coronation, none of the attendees captured a picture that actually shows it

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:30:51 AM EST
O'Reilly said 75,000. ABC News originally stated 1.5 million. Other media outlets say 10's of thousands.

I don't think we'll ever really know.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:31:42 AM EST
I have heard a hundred different estimates from a hundred different people. IMO, the organizers should have had an independent entity hired solely for a non-partizan estimation.

My guess? 1 million.

Even O'reilly said it was only 75K. I sent him a nice email about it.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:31:50 AM EST



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,550241,00.html


BECK: I think that it doesn't matter if any newspaper published how many people were there. We had, where was it, University of Illinois, I think, did a –– you know, a spatial count and looked at the photos and said I think it was 1.7 million people there. It doesn't matter if they say there were three. The people's –– the people that are wandering the halls of Congress and the White House know exactly how many people were there.

Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:41:06 AM EST



I think there were eleventy billion people there

When i got to the capitol the place was already shoulder to shoulder with people i could hear them chanting over a half mile away even over the dance music from the one (out of like 50) stages in the mall for "family reunion day". Whatever the number it was quite shocking.

Was it 1.5 million i don't know but it was more than 75 thousand i can tell you that
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:43:57 AM EST
According to the Washington Post and The New York Times: About 173, and 4 panhandlers.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:44:08 AM EST
I heard what Washington D.C. police department got a total of 1.5 million people.

O'reilly can suck my balls if he thinks only 75k showed up.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 2:47:44 AM EST
Far more than the Liberal media will ever admit.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:00:17 AM EST
The traffic camera time lapse should be a pretty good gauge, surprised no one has tried to calculate the number passing using the film.

Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:05:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By AmericanPatriot:
The traffic camera time lapse should be a pretty good gauge, surprised no one has tried to calculate the number passing using the film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sjvc6baor8

You know, with all that surveillance crap you used to see/read about infringing on everyone's privacy...
All they have in DC is this one lame camera?

And the troofers expect an IMAX quality film of the plane crashing into the Pentagon or it didn't happen?


Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:07:32 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:17:45 AM EST
Why would the numbers be reported correctly? We have fucking dictator in office.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:22:25 AM EST
I'd say there were 65Kpeople just in line for the porta-johns.

Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:40:22 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2009 3:42:15 AM EST by Tacberry]
When someone with the tech skill and research-fu comes up with a number, make sure you post it here with documentation.

Should be a matter of getting photos and numbers from the following:

Million Mom March
Inauguration of Obama
Immigration march
Million Man March
Iraq war protests


Found this interesting: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/54017

Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:55:58 AM EST
A couple interesting points from another forum:

On one of the DU threads about 9/12 a member who had been at the inauguration (must live in DC?) said s/he walked past the protest and estimated at least half a million, based on what s/he saw in January. She (the s/he thing is so old, so I'm arbitrarily choosing she) was immediately jumped on by other posters but I thought she defended the number very well. One poster asked, in sort of a daze, why the media estimates were so much lower. She said ask the media, because the public estimates didn't match what she saw by a long shot.

The word is getting out, even in the heart of the beast.


Sorry, but there is no way the crowd exceeded, or even approached, the crowd at the inauguration. I live in Arlington, Virginia (just across the river, 2 miles from the mall) and metroed/walked to the inauguration. The picture in the ticker only shows a portion of the crowd - the space beyond the Washington Monument (in that picture) all the way to the Jefferson memorial was also packed with people, and the entire width of the mall (including border streets) was packed for it's entire length. The inauguration crowds completely shut down the city; the Metro system was overwhelmed (took us 30 minutes between exiting the train and getting out of the station) and every hotel for 20-30 miles around was filled (and people were renting their homes out). This past weekend we had family in town, and they had no problem getting a hotel room in Crystal City, less than 2 miles from downtown. And driving around the city this weekend, there was maybe a slightly noticeable bump in crowds/traffic, but nothing like the inauguration.

Take it from a guy that lives there, there is simply no comparison between the two events. A friend who attended both events estimated this weekend's rally at maybe 10-20% of the inauguration. Which is a damn respectable turnout.


Link Posted: 9/15/2009 3:58:56 AM EST
MSNBC quoting DC Fire Dept. claims 60k, what they failed to mention is that assessment was made before 1PM EDT. If taking all the sources, it's a safe bet at least 1 million folks showed up, possibly up to 1.5

The MSM can bury it's head in the sand all they want, but I was there, and pics speak volumes, so yeah!
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 4:08:54 AM EST
I was there fro about 7:30 until 3:00. I kept hearing the park service was saying 1.5 million. All I know is people were EVERYWHERE. ACORN was there selling Gadsden flags. The crowd was well behaved, I saw NO altercations and people seemed to pick up after themselves!
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 4:14:54 AM EST
300k was my estimate there was NO WAY IN HELL there was as many people as an inauguration
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 5:09:00 AM EST
Originally Posted By TimJ:
Fucking O'Rielly kept saying 75,000 last night, I wanted to choke my TV. Made me remember why I don't watch him and wonder why I was.


Here's my email to him last night.

I know, not very classy. After watching him repeat that number 3 or 4 times, I wasn't feeling very classy.

You fucking turncoat piece of shit. I'm not buying your bullshit anymore. You underestimate the crowd at the Tea Party by HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS and then play into the far left wing bullshit by showing all the worst clips of videos and signs and disregarding the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of hard working Americans that were exercising their right to peaceful protest. THEN elude to the protestors being AFRAID of Obama?

Mark my fucking words Bill, your TV show will go the way of your radio show and for the same reasons is my guess. Your shine has worn off and your populist, liberal, bullshit is showing through.

Fuck you Bill. Hope Beck takes your spot by the end of the year.

XXXXX XXXXX
Kansas City

P.S Pithy enough for you?


Wonder if he'll read it on air.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 10:59:48 AM EST
O'Reilly said there were 75,000 people a few more times last night.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:09:51 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 11:10:15 AM EST by Max_Mike]
Best estimates and analysis of pictures and video I have read indicates the crowd was between 750,000 to slightly over 1 million.

There is one partial picture of the crowd I saw that using the Park Services crowd estimating grid that USA Today published for Obama’s inauguration showed without doubt 250,000+ people in that one partial picture so the 75,000 number is just horseshit.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:12:17 AM EST

Originally Posted By Max_Mike:
Best estimates and analysis of pictures and video I have read indicates the crowd was between 750,000 to slightly over 1 million.

There is one partial picture of the crowd I saw that using the Park Services crowd estimating grid that USA Today published for Obama’s inauguration showed without doubt 250,000+ people in that one partial picture so the 75,000 number is just horseshit.

750k - 1M is still a VERY respectable turnout... easily well over a million once you consider 9/12 events in other cities...
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:13:50 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 11:14:08 AM EST by ar15bubba]
150,000 is a sick joke...I was there and upwards of 700,000 would be reasonable. However, I heard on Beck today that University of Indiana ran some software they developed on the time lapse shots and it estimated 1.7 million.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:15:52 AM EST
Originally Posted By StraightShooter7:
O'Reilly said there were 75,000 people a few more times last night.


I was there and can say with utmost certainty that is total BS.

I couldn't tell you if it was 387,878 people or 1.87M, but it was damn sure not 75K.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:16:05 AM EST
How did the people get into the city? Parking spaces? Metro ridership? There are ways of making a scientific estimate, only I would bet the administrators with this data are keeping it mighty close.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:16:37 AM EST
Originally Posted By ar15bubba:
150,000 is a sick joke...I was there and upwards of 700,000 would be reasonable. However, I heard on Beck today that University of Indiana ran some software they developed on the time lapse shots and it estimated 1.7 million.


I heard the 1.7 million number on Medved today as well.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:18:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Apocalypto-:
Far more than the Liberal media will ever admit.

+1
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:25:05 AM EST
no picture I've seen even comes close to looking like a million people... I went to an outdoor papal mass that supposedly had 700K and it was freaking humongous, no way in hell there were a million folks there by any pic I've seen

Maybe 100Kish.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:42:23 AM EST
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
no picture I've seen even comes close to looking like a million people... I went to an outdoor papal mass that supposedly had 700K and it was freaking humongous, no way in hell there were a million folks there by any pic I've seen

Maybe 100Kish.


saying 100K is out of pure ignorance.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:46:37 AM EST

Originally Posted By kaos:

Originally Posted By AmericanPatriot:
The traffic camera time lapse should be a pretty good gauge, surprised no one has tried to calculate the number passing using the film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sjvc6baor8

You know, with all that surveillance crap you used to see/read about infringing on everyone's privacy...
All they have in DC is this one lame camera?

And the troofers expect an IMAX quality film of the plane crashing into the Pentagon or it didn't happen?



Well said, sir.

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:48:14 AM EST
Originally Posted By ar15bubba:
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
no picture I've seen even comes close to looking like a million people... I went to an outdoor papal mass that supposedly had 700K and it was freaking humongous, no way in hell there were a million folks there by any pic I've seen

Maybe 100Kish.


saying 100K is out of pure ignorance.


LOL, way more than 100k
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:50:55 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 11:51:10 AM EST by fiend]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:51:18 AM EST
Close to the last post in This thread hits on that.

Hard count by 'people meter' indicates around 1.5 million.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:51:44 AM EST

Originally Posted By AmericanPatriot:
The traffic camera time lapse should be a pretty good gauge, surprised no one has tried to calculate the number passing using the film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sjvc6baor8

Just look at the time lapse. That is river of people over a mile long and they keep pouring in. Definitely a million+
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:53:40 AM EST
Someone in the other thread said that it was probable that for every person onsite, there were 20 that wished they could have attened.

Even if it's half that, or a quarter of that, could you image if say 3-4 million showed up?

Yeah, just try to ignore that MSM/.gov.






Just means we have to bring all our frineds next time.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:55:33 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 12:05:19 PM EST by Mastadon]

Originally Posted By NoVaGator:
If there were more people there than the coronation, none of the attendees captured a picture that actually shows it

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Because the attendees were on the ground. Besides the traffic cam, I haven't seen any aerial shots. I was there, and didn't see any news helicopters zipping around. Given the attention paid to the rally by the MSM, I expect there aren't any aerial photos for comparison.

(edited to fix spelling & grammar)
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:55:37 AM EST
heres the MMM data I crunched:
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 11:57:13 AM EST
The only photos I've seen that would support the multi million attendant claims were not taken on 9/12/09.

I'd bet it's a hell of a lot closer to 75 thousand then it is to 1.5 million.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 12:00:32 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 12:49:12 PM EST
Glenn Beck said a software company that does this type of thing came up with 1.7 Million, can't remember the name of it, he said it on the radio today, anyone have it?
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:20:46 PM EST
Tag for link to something substantial as I argue with my liberal sister about this...

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:28:53 PM EST
I am going with 500k and I was there. Many more folks on the sides and all they way into the first green of the mall. Much of the area was roped off. I got to the capital at around 11am and I was almost to the mall start.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:47:57 PM EST

Originally Posted By patsue:
Tag for link to something substantial as I argue with my liberal sister about this...


Me too.

What else can I do.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:52:03 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 1:54:32 PM EST by Frost7]
DC police said 1.2 to 1.5 million, and the British press was quoting them. I think the police, who have seen large gatherings of people before and know how to calculate, and the British press, who actually quote sources and do research instead of making up shit like the American media, are who I will trust on accuracy.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:58:11 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2009 2:02:19 PM EST by utahvarminter]

http://www.gormogons.com/2009/09/how-many-people-were-at-big-912-tea.html

The big 9/12 protest certainly attracted a ton of people. How many seems to be an open question. The Washington Post reported “tens of thousands,” so a conservative might reasonably expect there to have been at least a hundred thousand. The low end of estimates seems to be around 50,000–60,000, and the high end, in the London Daily Mail was two million. That’s a pretty big spread.

In the last story the Volgi read, it reported the police had declined to give any estimates (despite earlier reports they were saying 50K-60K), and the Park Police are out of the crowd-estimation business (if one recalls right, they got too much flack for saying the Million Man March was actually the Four-Hundred-Thousand-Man March).

So, let’s take a look at some pictures.

In this one, taken from the Capitol, you can see the crowd extends past the Grant Memorial (the equestrian statue in the middle ground).


In this one, also taken from the Capitol, but looking northwest, rather than due west down the Mall, you can see the Peace Monument with the William B. Bryant Annex of the U.S. Courthouse at Third and Constitution in the background, with the crowd extending up Pennsylvania Avenue.


Ok, now click over to the Flash app at the top of this USA Today article on estimating crowd sizes in anticipation of the record crowd at President Obama’s inauguration.

I'd guess that you've got at least a third of that 240K space filled up—so say that's 80K, not counting whoever's coming down Pennsylvania.

Now look at this picture:


That’s a solid line of people from Fourteenth & E all the way to the Capitol. Fourteenth Street is where the USA Today dot indicating the 1.2 million who attended LBJ’s inauguration. Of course, this isn’t exactly right, because Pennsylvania is running diagonally, so it’s actually a longer line, and because Pennsylvania is narrower than the Mall (1.25 x 0.2 mi vs. 1.18 x 0.5 mi, by my Google Earth measurements.)

So, if, for the sake of argument, the Mall to Fourteenth, at [1.18 x 0.5 =] .59 sq. mi., holds 1.2M people, and Penn. Ave. to Fourteenth is [1.25 x 0.2] = .25 sq. mi., then you've got something just over 500K people in that picture.

So add that to 80K, and you're up around 600K.

Buuuuut, apparently there were people going from the White House to the Capitol “for three hours” according to the caption here.

Let's assume the first person leaves at 0:00. At an average 3 mph, she'll reach the Capitol in .42 hours, or 25 minutes. (I say she because 3 mph is the average walking speed for women.) So, let's let her walk slowly and get there at 0:30. At that point, you've got your first 500K people, right? At 1:00, you're up to a million, and by 3:00, you're up to three million. Now, let's say they were walking especially slowly and that there wasn't a constantly solid 500K there. What do we bump it down to? A million five? Two mil?

Now, let's go to the video.

_sjvc6baor8&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1

It looks to your Volgi like people are milling around there for the first 16 seconds or so. It's not until 21 seconds that you see the whole length of Pennsylvania covered (let's say that's our first 500K). People then keep the street filled until the tail of the crowd appears at 36 seconds.

So, if the 40-second video is an accurate time-lapse of the 210 minutes from 8:00-11:30, then the 21-36 second march portion actually represents the 78.75 minutes from 9:50:15 to 11:09:00—much less than three hours. Every second represents five and a quarter minutes. If our 500K/30 minutes is right, then there are 87,500 people leaving every second of the video. Which, by the end of the thirty-sixth second means that 1,812,500 people have left. We’re in territory close to the Daily Mail’s number.

Now your Volgi is smart enough to know that he’s not knowledgeable enough to conclude that his assumptions are right. (He didn’t get to be Œcumenical Volgi by overestimating his own abilities. 其言之不怍, 則為之也難!) So he ran it by the Czar, who came up with two interesting points. First, this photo:

[UPDATE: Turns out this is of a 1997 Promise Keepers’ rally. The Czar was right to note the missing metadata. Apologies.]


If we treat the USA Today chart as authoritative, this shows well in excess of LBJ’s 1.2 million people. Doing a quick-and-dirty estimate of the amount of ground the crowds around the Washington Monument are occupying gives another couple hundred thousand, putting the total around 1.5 million.

But, thus spake the Czar:

We, by the grace of God, Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias, of Moscow, Kiev, Vladimir, Novgorod, Tsar of Kazan, Tsar of Astrakhan, Tsar of Poland, Tsar of Siberia, Tsar of Tauric Chersonesos, Tsar of Georgia, Lord of Pskov, and Grand Duke of Smolensk, Lithuania, Volhynia, Podolia, and Finland, and so forth, and so forth, and so forth, took that photograph and put it on our left, jewel-encrusted Fabergé monitor.

We went to Google maps and went to map view to zoom into the exact area of the mall shown in the picture. We then switched to satellite view, and took a screen capture of it.

We opened up AutoCAD on our right-hand monitor. We pasted in the satellite image. Using a polyline tool, we traced over the areas that people are standing in, including the crowds that spilled over onto the streets, around the curved pavilion behind the Castle, and even drew around the trees because no one was in the thickets. We came up with four distinct crowds: two at the Washington Monument, one between the Monument and the Mall (a small one), and of course the Mall all the way up to the Reflecting Pool.

We deleted the photo, leaving the polylines. Knowing from the photo that 7/8" actual was equivalent to 500 feet, we scaled up the polylines to full size. AutoCAD computes areas of enclosed polylines, and the grand total of all four crowd shapes was 2,350,069 square feet.

Now. Here's what happens. If you use the usual method of computing massed crowds (the one the journalists use), you divide the square footage by two... and you get 1,175,035. That's where the 1.2 million number comes from.

But to be honest, that "divide by 2" trick is only used in extremely packed conditions...like how many guys can you stuff into a locker. A more reasonable number for a loose crowd—like at a concert in the park—is 4.5 sq. ft. per person. If that's a better description for what you see in the photo, then there are only about 522,238 people in that photo. We don't think this crowd is tightly packed, especially if it was walking and converging. We would say the crowd is tighter closest to the Capitol, and fading back to about 9 square feet per person. We boldly suggest there are between 600,000-750,000 people in this picture!*

We noticed that USA Today is dividing by 2.5 sq. ft./person We think that's outrageously tight. That's like sardines! We have ordered the execution of their statician. Using that figure, we trace an even larger area than they did, and we still wind up with 940,028 people. So not only do we conclude 2.5 sq. ft./person is wrong, we think they're wrong in their computation of the Mall's area!

THUS SPEAKS THE CZAR! HEAR AND TREMBLE!

*Caveat: the photo is cropped to the West, and more importantly, the Czar cannot see around buildings to know precisely how big the spillover is. (We have received no reports from the Okhrana on this point. The responsible parties have been shot.) Further, we do NOT know if that was the crowd at its height. Frankly, who knows what that photo was from? Unfortunately, the photo was run through Photoshop or something first, because the camera information and creation data is missing from the file. If it had been the original photo from the camera, we'd be able to determine the exact moment in time the picture was taken to know if that was really the full extent of the crowd.

We do not think the picture was edited to increase numbers: The Czar sees a little repetition of colors—usually the sign of doctoring by cloning one part of the picture to another—but those are small blotches in the center of the mall. That's the least likely place to doctor a picture...usually you do that at the fringes or sides to increase the crowds furthest from the center. Conclusion: real photo. The shadow lengths suggest afternoon, as the Washington Monument shadow is long but pointing from the southwest. If it were evening, the shadow would point East, and if earlier, the shadow of the Monument would be much shorter. So we suspect the photo is legit, and from the later afternoon.

Still, even at our worst case of 522,000 souls, that's way bigger than what was reported. And like the Czar said, this photo does not cover everything going on.


Ergo, your unofficial Gormogons’ crowd estimate is, oh, let’s say 750,000 or so. (Incidentally, recalculating the Volgi’s 1.8M above with the Czar‘s 4.5 sq.ft./person density gives a hair above an even million people in the video.) But, given the math of previous crowd estimates, our 750,000 people probably outnumber those at some events put at a million or more.

Just to show you how much of a shot in a dark all these crowd estimates are: the “official” figure of 1.8M for Barack Obama’s inauguration is, upon examination, quite sketchy. The Park Service (probably having MMM flashbacks [or MMMM, as ’Puter would say]) chose not to produce a number after “1.8M” got out there and simply adopted it as a record. Meanwhile, an Arizona State University professor looked at a satellite image and came up with 800K. Another analyst looked at the same photo and came up with almost twice that. The key issue, as the professor mentions in the second article is the crowd-density number.

Meanwhile, for comparison, here’s the Obama inauguration crowd (at 11:19 a.m.). Note the dense clumps of people in dark clothing. It was cold that day and there were video screens set up for people to watch. So they cluster around them. To the Volgi’s untutored eye, it looks like a roughly comparable—or perhaps even smaller—crowd. What do you think?


Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:58:49 PM EST
March On Washington: How Big Was the Crowd?

September 14, 2009 - by Charlie Martin
"How big is it?” is certainly one of the world’s most dreaded questions.

In fact, after the Million Man March in 1995, Congress restricted the National Park Service from even making estimates — a restriction that was maintained for 14 years and then quietly rescinded this January for the Obama inauguration.

I’m talking about crowds, of course. I can’t take you people anywhere.

There have been a lot of estimates, from the “official” one of 60 to 70 thousand, up to the rumored 2 million. Let’s see if we can make a plausible estimate with some rigor and some idea of possible error.

Yesterday, I made a back of the envelope calculation that Stephen Green picked up at Vodkapundit, simply to see if the high estimates were at all plausible. A number I picked up by Google searching told me that a pretty good crowd is about 18 people in 10 square meters — that’s about half as crowded as a crowded elevator (approximately one person per six square feet).

Wikipedia told me that the National Mall covers about 125 hectares, or about 1.25 million square meters, and simple multiplication then tells us that if the whole mall was that crowded, that would be as many as 2.3 million people. Which is one hell of a crowd. Call that an upper bound — anyone who says it was more than 2.3 million is almost certainly wrong.

Just for comparison, we’ve got the Obama inauguration, which was originally estimated at 2 million and then revised down to about 850,000. Popular Science got GeoEye to take a satellite photo.

Now, via Green, we have a number reported by Barbara Espinosa from the “people meter” on Pennsylvania Ave — a total of 1.5 million people passed by during the march. Now, that’s some kind of direct count, but we don’t know what kind — if anyone has any information on this “people meter” I’d love to see it — so let’s save that as an estimate and see what else we get.

The National Park Service actually has a methodology for crowd estimation; they just were forbidden by Congress from using it after the Million Man March came out to be less than half a million. That restriction mysteriously disappeared for the Obama inauguration, and USA Today published a useful article on it.

Turns out the Park Service thinks a crowd is about one person per five square feet, or a little more dense than I used, but they clearly use a different area for the Mall than I got from Wikipedia — they say a full Mall is about 1.5 million. So all we need is an overhead photo, and we should be able to compare easily, right?

The only problem is that I can’t find one. No one paid to have GeoEye take one (next time, dammit) and no one has published one that I can find.

Darn.

So let’s take another approach. We’ve got Barbara Espinosa’s 1.5 million count. Is that plausible?

Here we have other comparable data, in the various pictures from Pennsylvania Avenue. There is a time lapse from the traffic camera at 14th Street, roughly where E would cross 14th NW if only E actually crossed 14th. It’s overlooking the Freedom Park, and looking down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol. The White House is basically behind us from this point of view.

What that shows us is Pennsylvania Avenue full of people walking past for at least three hours. (This matches some other independent accounts, like this at the New York Times.) So more back of the envelope: it’s 1.1 miles from Freedom Park to the Capitol, and Pennsylvania is six lanes plus a middle turn lane and some sidewalks — call it 100 feet wide. That’s about 600,000 square feet, so if it were a crowd standing still, that is at least 100,000 people. We’ve got a picture of that, so that’s got to be a lower bound. We’ve also got a variety of pictures of at least the part of the Mall from 3rd to Capitol Circle and it’s pretty full — the Park Service method tells us that’s around 250,000 right there.


But the people on Pennsylvania aren’t standing still: they’re walking, marching, at something between 2 and 4 miles per hour because that’s how fast people march. Let’s choose 3 mph: that would mean a line of people marching past a single point for three hours would be about 9 miles long. In that time, there would be enough people to fill that chunk of Pennsylvania about 8 times. That’s conservative, as what I’ve heard from people actually marching is that it was pretty packed; it wouldn’t be hard to believe the 1.5 million number either.

That’s 800,000 people.

The Park Service method, filling just the Capitol end of the Mall, is 250,000, but we have many reports of much overflow, and we also can figure that they wouldn’t have marched past for three full hours if there were only that many.

The legacy media estimate of 60-70 thousand is ludicrous: we have pictures of twice that. Still, it’s been reported, so we’ll keep it.

That’s a pretty wide range. To summarize:

Rumored number 2 million
“People meter” count 1.5 million
Eight “Pennsylvania Avenues” full of people 800 thousand
Grant Memorial area by Park Service method 250 thousand
Legacy media reports 70 thousand


Average all of those and we get 900,000 plus (924,000). Throw out the outliers, we get 850,000. And remember that the 1.5 million was a real count; it’s inherently a more believable number. Our estimate should be “pulled” upward by that.

Conclusion: probably well more than 850,000 in the crowd.


Which is a lot of people.



Charlie Martin is a Colorado computer scientist and nearly-successful screenwriter who contributes to the Flares Into Darkness political blog as ‘Seneca the Younger,’ and blogs under his own name at the aggressively non-political Explorations blog.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 2:47:23 PM EST
Originally Posted By NoVaGator:
If there were more people there than the coronation, none of the attendees captured a picture that actually shows it

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Then check this out:

"The DC Park Police stopped trying to estimate crowds years ago. But given the over the top estimate for Obama's inauguration by some ("more than a million people"), I would say the number of people out today come close to matching the number on January 20."




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoPud1TeubM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwoCJjH4gwQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyMw7qjU2V0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opzGLW_UcmM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUpcm7qdr9w

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VMXz6xGeqc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1Ntu7Aapys

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UULBKgxRGk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2LY7RGXP2A pt 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVNyJCW0jOs pt 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8BEzgfGo_o pt 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OyzniIYgGc pt 4


Link Posted: 9/16/2009 2:50:23 PM EST
Originally Posted By Keith_J:
How did the people get into the city? Parking spaces? Metro ridership? There are ways of making a scientific estimate, only I would bet the administrators with this data are keeping it mighty close.



I read there were 450 charter buses... and people arrived via other means as well.

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 2:56:08 PM EST
Originally Posted By A_Free_Man:
Originally Posted By Keith_J:
How did the people get into the city? Parking spaces? Metro ridership? There are ways of making a scientific estimate, only I would bet the administrators with this data are keeping it mighty close.



I read there were 450 charter buses... and people arrived via other means as well.



A lot came on metro. If you look through the big thread there are some pictures of the first stop on the orange line and the lines people waiting to get into the building. I got on at the fourth stop on that line and the trains were already packed. By the time we got to federal triangle we were packed in like sardines. I also didnt leave till about 2 hours after the event ended and the trains were still full of people from the march.

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