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Posted: 10/5/2004 5:58:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/13/2004 7:09:54 AM EDT by Bartholomew_Roberts]
In 1994, the Senate voted to pass Feinstein's amendment banning semi-autos 56-43. In 2004, they voted again to renew it 52-47. In ten years, we gained four votes on this important RKBA issue in the Senate. It is progress; but slow progress.

This November, there are 7 critical Senate races where gun owners face a clear choice between a candidate who supports our rights and a candidate who opposes us and favors more bans. We could have a pro-RKBA majority in both the Senate and the House. With a pro-RKBA President (or at least one who hasn't vetoed anything in four years), we could actually pass some repeals. We could gain more pro-RKBA votes in this one election than we have in the last ten years; but first we have to get out and vote and put pro-gun candidates in office.

South Dakota
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0

Candidates:
John Thune (R) - GOA B rated. Opposes renewal of ban.
Tom Daschle (D) - GOA F rated. Supported ban renewal in March.

Status: 9/29 Rasmussen poll shows Thune leading Daschle by 4 points, despite Daschle having set new records for political spending per capita (Daschle had already spent $8.3 million with five months to go until the election). Thune also opened his lead from an earlier poll where he enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable edge of 13 points over Daschle in an earlier poll.

Washington
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0

Candidates:
George Nethercutt (R) - GOA A- rated. Opposes renewal of ban.
Patty Murray (D) - GOA F rated. Supported Kennedy Ammo ban, semiauto ban, and federal approval of private sales in March.

Status: Murray has a 3-2 spending advanatge on Nethercutt. He faces a hard fight; but he can win. His campaign could use some money to help offset Murray's edge as an incumbent though. As of 9/21, he was 12 points down to Murray. As of 10/4 same poling group shows him 19 down. Looking grim here...

Colorado
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: 0
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: -1

Candidates:
Pete Coors (R) - No rating from GOA; but the candidate participate in the "I'm the NRA" ad many years ago. He is also on record in the Rocky Mountain News as opposing the ban as well as supporting a repeal of the Lautenberg Amendment, Brady Bill, 1968 GCA and 1934 NFA. All words so far; but some pretty bold words.
Ken Salazar (D) - GOA D rated. Opposes ban renewal and signed MMM pledge card.

Status: Coors has a big campaign chest; but he had to fight a tough Republican primary battle that drained it. Salazar was annointed by the Dems and faced no real opposition, so he has money to burn. This race has been very close so far with both candidates within 1 point with a 4 point margin of error; but Coors has pulled ahead to a 5 point lead as of 9/23.

10/7 - Salazar dumped some of that campaign warchest into the fight and the race is once again tied. This is getting to be an expensive race for both candidates and Salazar has the money edge. Colorado - this is a Senator who supports a repeal of a lot of bad gun laws! Let's not let this one get defeated by a guy who supports banning your semi-autos.

South Carolina
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0

Candidates:
Jim Demint (R) - GOA A rated (and GOA rates very few politicians as A), opposes ban
Inez Tenebaum (D) - No rating, former state education secretary, supports ban.

Status: A 10/6 poll shows Demint with a 6 point lead which is less than the 12-13 point lead he had been posting. The Dems own internal polling shows it a tie though; let's not take any chances here as this is one of only two GOA A rated candidates with a past voting record running for Senate this year.

Louisiana
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0 (likely guess as it would depend on which Democrat won)

Candidates:
David Vitter (R) - GOA A- rated.
John Kennedy (D), Chris John (D), Arthur Morrel (D) - no info

Status: As of 10/10 Vitter leads his closest opponent by 26%; but there is a big chunk of undecided voters (21%). Louisiana runs multiple candidates all at once on the ballot with a runoff if no candidate gets a decisive win. Vitter needs to clear 50% to avoid a runoff; but is currently only polling at 43%.

Florida
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0

Candidates:
Mel Martinez (R) - On record opposing ban renewal
Betty Castor (D) - On record supporting Brady Campaign and ban renewal.

Status: 9/22 Gallup poll shows Castor leading by 6 points with a 4 point margin of error; but latest poll 10/3 shows Martinez with a 4 point lead! 10/6 poll by Republican firm shows Castor ahead by 3. This is going to be close and we need Martinez to win! Flordia gun owners, here is a clear choice between someone who trusts you with guns and someone who does not. Whether Martinez wins this state will hinge almost entirely on whether gun owners in Florida vote their guns and get their friends to do likewise.

North Carolina
Pro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0

Richard Burr (R) - GOA B- rated. Opposes ban.
Erskine Bowles (D) - GOA F rated, former Clinton Chief of Staff.

Status: As of 10/4, Burr has a two point lead! This means that Burr has gained 12 points on Bowles since early September. Again, this is another clear-cut choice for gun owners between somebody with a record of gun-grabbing and somebody who has supported them in Congress.

Here is a chance to pick up SIX votes against a semi-auto ban in the Senate plus establish a pro-gun majority in both houses. Right now pro-RKBA candidates are leading or tied in all but one of these seven elections. It is now up to us whether we can make the most of this opportunity.

Other elections of note:

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R) and Tony Knowles (D) share the same public stance on guns. The difference is Murkowski has a GOA rating of B- and a past voting record. Knowles statements so far are all talk and he will vote to put Kennedy, Feinstein and Schumer in control of the Senate Judiciary committee that hears gun control legislation. Knowles leads by three points with a four point margin of error.

Oklahoma: GOA has called this Senate race the most important election of 2004. The Dem candidate is pro-RKBA (GOA B rated) but the Republican candidate, Dr. Tom Coburn is GOA A+ (for comparison, the only other A+ GOA rating I could find was Rep. Ron Paul of Texas). The Dem candidate is good on guns; but like Knowles, he will vote to put Kennedy, Feinstein and Schumer in charge of the Senate Judiciary. Coburn took a brief narrow lead; but Carson is once again up by two points. However, that is well within the margin of error.
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 8:59:42 AM EDT
Never, ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how "pro-gun"! Who's in charge determines the agenda, not individual senators.
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 9:08:44 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Merlin:
Never, ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how "pro-gun"! Who's in charge determines the agenda, not individual senators.


I respectifully disagree. We have had many Republicans that screwed the gunners. The head of the RNC a few year back told the gunners, "where else are these people going to go, they have no where else." I believe the guy's name was Lee Hamilton. I always vote for the candidate, rather than the party.
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 9:22:06 AM EDT
Great info, for it.
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 9:32:21 AM EDT

Originally Posted By warlord:

Originally Posted By Merlin:
Never, ever vote for a Democrat, no matter how "pro-gun"! Who's in charge determines the agenda, not individual senators.


I respectifully disagree. We have had many Republicans that screwed the gunners. The head of the RNC a few year back told the gunners, "where else are these people going to go, they have no where else." I believe the guy's name was Lee Hamilton. I always vote for the candidate, rather than the party.



You are leaving out a very important step... the primary.
You pick you "ggod guy" in the primaries.
You pick your party in the general election.

Sen Voinovich (liberal Republican Sen for Ohio) was strongly challenged in the primary, and the Rep party was very surprised by the showing for his opponent. That did send a message.
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 12:52:10 PM EDT
Yes, the primaries are a great place to "send a message" without having to risk getting a real asshat in office by sending that message. The message is also much more clearly understood when you send it in the primaries.

During the general election using your votes to your "send a message" gets muddled up in the opposing side's propaganda and you run a real risk that the message you sent (say "Keep your hands off my guns") gets received as "You aren't socialist enough to deserve my vote".
Link Posted: 10/5/2004 12:57:36 PM EDT
The second most important vote this coming November 2nd is in South Dakota. Daschle has to go.

Hey you guys in Sodak, sound off...how is the senate race looking from your ground?
Link Posted: 10/11/2004 6:07:26 AM EDT
bump
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 7:17:51 AM EDT
Bump--just sent $$$ to Thune, Nethercutt, Burr and Coors.
Link Posted: 10/13/2004 7:21:09 AM EDT
Potential pro-RKBA votes gained in the Senate based on current polls:

South Dakota +1
Florida No change
Colorado Too close to call
North Carolina +1
South Carolina +1
Louisiana +1
Washington No change

Total: +4 pro-RKBA votes in the Senate. Assuming the two pro-RKBA Democrat Senate candidates leading in Oklahoma and Alaska don't forget their roots the moment they land in Washington, this would be enough to flip the 52-47 March vote in favor of the ban to a 48-51 vote against it.

However, there were several Dems that were on the fence or didn't vote (Reid, Feingold, Johnson) - if we can add Colorado and Florida to the list, while holding on to some VERY close races in SD and NC, we can gain some extra insurance against arm-twisting by the Dem leadership.

Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:36:28 AM EDT
Latest news from: www.realclearpolitics.com/Senate.html

Jim DeMint has a solid lead in NC +1 for RKBA

Richard Burr in SC has a slight lead within the margin of error; but it is consistent over several polls +1 for RKBA (and he made up over 14 points in a month!)

John Thune has another slight but consistent lead in SD... are Daschle's days numbered? +1 for RKBA!

In FL and CO, it is too close to call with polls for both candidates going back and forth. Zogby claims that Coors dropped 15 points in a week - unlikely as I didn't hear any news about photos of him molesting underage sheep; but the other polls show a tie between Salazar and Coors.

In FL it is as close as you can get. No clear lead for either candidate over several polls - definitely a nail biter

In WA, Nethercutt is going down unfortunately. Short of a miraculous intervention we won't pick up a seat here but not a bad run against an incumbent anti-gun Senator in WA. 0 for RKBA.

In LA, Vitter has cracked the magical 50% barrier in one poll but is still averaging only 44%. If he beats 50% there will be no run-off election and a pro-gun candidate is guaranteed in the Senate.

Finally, in other races Coburn (OK) and Knowles (AK) both have slight; but consistent leads over the last month and will probably win those races.

All in all, we have 3 gains, 3 that are too close to call, and one loss where the incumbent was already anti-gun (so no net loss).

Worst-case scenario is pro-RKBA +1. Best case scenario pro-RKBA +5
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:41:05 AM EDT
I gotta believe Martinez wins here. Castor is one serious loser bitch and there adds are NASTY.
We had better choices than Martinez in the primaries.
Link Posted: 10/28/2004 6:42:37 AM EDT
good stuff, i had a similar thread here: www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=287032
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:32:15 AM EDT
Tomorrow is the day! We have a chance to gain more pro-RKBA seats in the Senate in a single day than we have in the last ten years. Whether that happens or not, now depends on YOU.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:37:56 AM EDT
Here in Kali-fornia, Senator Barbara Boxer is just kicked the $hit out her opponent Bill Jones. Poor Bill doesn't even have money contribution from the state's Republican Party, and has so little money, he's not even running any TV ads.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:54:21 AM EDT
True; but Jones is pro-ban anyway and probably deserves the kicking as much as I'd like to see him beat Boxer anyway.

However, the races listed above (except Nethercutt) are very close and gunowners will make the difference in whether a pro-RKBA candidate wins or not if they vote their guns.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:58:02 AM EDT
Jim Demint (R) - GOA A rated (and GOA rates very few politicians as A), opposes ban
Inez Tenebaum (D) - No rating, former state education secretary, supports ban.

Status: A 10/6 poll shows Demint with a 6 point lead which is less than the 12-13 point lead he had been posting. The Dems own internal polling shows it a tie though; let's not take any chances here as this is one of only two GOA A rated candidates with a past voting record running for Senate this year

I will be voting for Demint
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:37:44 AM EDT
I would not count on the D from Alaska doing anything for the AR-15/AW group. I watched the Alaska debate and he raked the R over the coals for her supporting the gunrights of the folks in DC.
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