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Posted: 9/14/2004 6:36:38 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 11:40:46 AM EST by -Absolut-]
inspired by this thread www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=274941
i will keep updating this post to reflect what the expected outcome is for control of the Senate after Nov.





There is an open Democratic seat up in SC (fritz hollings who is retiring). That is all but guaranteed to be taken by Jim DeMint, a very strong conservative Republican.
so:

Republicans pick up seat in SC.
Democrats hold seat in AR
Republicans hold seat in MS
Republicans pick up seat in LA
Democrats pick up seat in IL
Democrats hold seat in CA
Republicans hold seat in KY
Democrats hold seat in WA
Republicans hold seat in PA
Toss up in Democratic held seat in SD
Toss up in Democratic held seat in NC
Toss up in Republican held seat in AK
Toss up in Republican held seat in CO



Republicans= +1

Democrats= -1
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:38:54 PM EST
Arkansas has:

DEMOCRAT x 2

One of them (Lincoln) is up for re-election. She will probably win. It's so bad here that I can't even think of the name of her Republican opponent.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:39:25 PM EST
Missouri - Republicans should retain both seats
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:40:03 PM EST
Colorado:

Republican retiring, Salazar Dem is leading Coors Republican, so net loss in Colorado.

+1 Democrats
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:43:02 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/14/2004 6:44:19 PM EST by MiG-21]
Louisiana:
John Breaux (D) is retiring
Double Digit front runner to replace him is David Vitter (R)

+1 Republican
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:43:42 PM EST

Originally Posted By SS109:
Colorado:

Republican retiring, Salazar Dem is leading Coors Republican, so net loss in Colorado.

+1 Democrats


i've heard alot of people say that Pete Coors is going to win in CO.....?
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:43:55 PM EST
Not good...Bowles will probably win.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:43:55 PM EST
There are no Senate races in my state this term. In 2 years, Debbie Stabenow (D) comes up for re-election.

I don't think I'm going to stick around that long though.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:46:15 PM EST

Originally Posted By WackyG:
Not good...Bowles will probably win.


as bad as Dole beat him, i just can't believe that until he is sworn in....i think all the talk over bowles is just liberal hopes (same thing they said when dole ran against him)
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:52:27 PM EST
I don't think that we will ever unseat the two bitches from my state.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:53:04 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/14/2004 6:53:40 PM EST by raven]
It's close, but former governor and Democrat Tony Knowles is beating the appointed incumbent Republican, Lisa Murkowski.

I'd bet on Alaska going Democrat.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 6:58:45 PM EST
Doomed. DOOMED. Feinstein's Contract with Satan still has several years left on it, and Barbara Boxer just married off her spawn into the Hillary Rodham family.
Doomed I say.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 7:06:44 PM EST

Originally Posted By rayra:
Doomed. DOOMED. Feinstein's Contract with Satan still has several years left on it, and Barbara Boxer just married off her spawn into the Hillary Rodham family.
Doomed I say.



We're doomed too.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 7:17:15 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/14/2004 7:17:28 PM EST by jblachly]
WHAT * COLORED THE MAP BACKWARDS?
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:18:27 PM EST
Floridas needs to go back to a 1 vs 1 situation after Graham retires. Believe it will happen with Martinez beating out Castor. They just need to focus on that bizarre relationship between Castor and the CAIR/USF professor who was convicted of Terrorism.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:25:59 PM EST
Bill Jones hasn't got a snow ball's chance in hell to defeat Diane Fienstein.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:29:10 PM EST
No worries here in KY. I don't think Mitch McConnell is running this time, but if he was, it wouldn't matter anyway. Nobody has ever seriously challenged him. He wins by a landslide every election.

Jim Bunning is running against a guy named Mongiardo or something. The last poll I saw showed Bunning with a double digit lead (at least 15-20% ahead). So it looks like KY will hold for the Republicans.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:30:31 PM EST
In South Dakota, Thune is up by 2-3% points over Daschle IIRC.

I have a feeling Daschle is gone come Election Day!
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:31:50 PM EST
We are fucked.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:35:10 PM EST
Here we have Zell Miller leaving, hopefully we can get a republican in his place. Id still perfer him to still be holding the seat though.
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:35:29 PM EST

We are fucked.


??????
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:38:46 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/14/2004 8:41:54 PM EST by Dave_A]

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
inspired by this thread www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=274941
i will keep updating this post to reflect what the expected outcome is for control of the Senate after Nov.


www.nrsc.org/nrscweb/races2004/new_map.gif


There is an open Democratic seat up in SC (fritz hollings who is retiring). That is all but guaranteed to be taken by Jim DeMint, a very strong conservative Republican.
so:

Republicans pick up seat in SC.
Democrats hold seat in AR
Republicans hold seat in MS
Republicans pick up seat in LA
Democrats pick up seat in IL
Democrats hold seat in CA
Toss up in Democratic held seat in NC
Toss up in Republican held seat in AK
Toss up in Republican held seat in CO



Republicans= +1

Democrats= -1



I predict Edwards (we all know where HE went) and Zell Miller (retiring) will be replaced by (R)s too...

Oh, also, in WI we have a businessman running vs Feingold... Feingold will win if Kerry takes the state, if Bush takes the state we have a chance (of guys who vote for Bush also voting for Michaels, as Michaels is trying to tie his campaign to GW)...
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:54:48 PM EST

Originally Posted By jblachly:
WHAT * COLORED THE MAP BACKWARDS?





+1
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 8:56:50 PM EST

Originally Posted By jblachly:
WHAT * COLORED THE MAP BACKWARDS?

Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:00:29 PM EST

Originally Posted By warlord:
Bill Jones hasn't got a snow ball's chance in hell to defeat Diane Fienstein.



I thought he's running against Boxer?
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:19:57 PM EST
pete coors is losing to salazar?! by how much?!
Link Posted: 9/14/2004 9:37:20 PM EST
George Nethercutt (R) has a good chance of beating Patty Murray (D) here in WA. state. We need some help though, very liberal on the west side of the mountains.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:34:49 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/15/2004 11:51:32 AM EST by Bartholomew_Roberts]
Crticial Senate seats for gunowners - in these Senate races, a strong pro-gun Republican candidate (minimum criteria: opposes ban renewal and B- or better from GOA) opposes a grabber Dem candidate (criteria: supports ban renewal)

California: Jones (R) vs. Boxer (D). In August, Jones was only 6 points behind despite his opponent having a 7-1 cash advantage on him. Sadly, he is slipping now and is now trailing by double digits. Likely result, Dems/anti-gun keep this seat

Edited to add: Jones has announced support for the ban renewal, so we are probably screwed even if he could pull it off. Apparently in California, it is damn difficult for anyone who opposes gun control to win the state.

Colorado: Rep. Pete Coors (R) vs. Salazar (D) - no recent polls available. August poll from Survey USA shows Coors leading by 1 point. Too close to call.

Florida: Martinez (R) vs. Castor (D) - 9/19 Survey USA poll shows Martinez down by 4 points with a 4 point margin of error. Too close to call.

Louisiana: Vitter (R) leading 4-way race with 42% of the vote (9/2/04). Remaining Democrat vote is split among Dem candidates 19/16/3, meaning that even combined the Dems are way behind. +1 Republican/pro-gun

North Carolina: Burr (R) vs. Bowles (D). Bowles was leading by 10 points on 9/8. This increased his lead from previous polls. However, we still need to get out and vote here. Burr is a B- rating from GOA. Bowles is a former Clinton chief of staff who supports the ban. Likely result, Democrats/anti-gun keep this seat

South Dakota: Thune (R) vs. Daschle (D) - Thune is getting outspent but is pulling ahead of Daschle. Latest poll shows him with a 3 point lead over Daschle in votes; but a 13-point lead on favorable/unfavorable view. Too close to call yet; but Thune has a real chance to throw this F-rated candidate out on his ass.

South Carolina: Demint (R) vs. Tenebaum (D) - Demint has a 13 point lead in August; but a recent 9/9 poll shows Tenebaum trailing by only 3 points. This should be an easy seat for pro-gun voters to pick up. Let's not lose it through laziness. Demint has an A-rating from GOA so you know he is solid on guns. Best chance we have to replace a former F-rated vote with pro-gun vote. +1 Republicans/pro gun.

Washington: Nethercutt(R) vs. Murray(D) - Nethercutt has been a good supporter of RKBA. Murray is a rabid grabber who has a cash and incumbent advantage; but Nethercutt is within single digits and closing, albeit it slowly. He went from 8 points down in August to 7 points down by 9/8. If he can keep it up, he can still squeak out a win. Unfotunately, the current out look for this is Democrat/anti keeps seat

Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:39:03 AM EST


We have a rabid anti gun asshat (Fingerhut) running against a RINO (Voinovich)
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 6:05:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
Crticial Senate seats for gunowners - in these Senate races, a strong pro-gun Republican candidate (minimum criteria: opposes ban renewal and B- or better from GOA) opposes a grabber Dem candidate (criteria: supports ban renewal)

California: Jones (R) vs. Boxer (D). In August, Jones was only 6 points behind despite his opponent having a 7-1 cash advantage on him. Sadly, he is slipping now and is now trailing by double digits. Likely result, Dems/anti-gun keep this seat

Colorado: Rep. Pete Coors (R) vs. Salazar (D) - no recent polls available. August poll from Survey USA shows Coors leading by 1 point. Too close to call.

Florida: Martinez (R) vs. Castor (D) - 9/19 Survey USA poll shows Martinez down by 4 points with a 4 point margin of error. Too close to call.

Louisiana: Vitter (R) leading 4-way race with 42% of the vote (9/2/04). Remaining Democrat vote is split among Dem candidates 19/16/3, meaning that even combined the Dems are way behind. +1 Republican/pro-gun

North Carolina: Burr (R) vs. Bowles (D). Bowles was leading by 10 points on 9/8. This increased his lead from previous polls. However, we still need to get out and vote here. Burr is a B- rating from GOA. Bowles is a former Clinton chief of staff who supports the ban. Likely result, Democrats/anti-gun keep this seat

South Dakota: Thune (R) vs. Daschle (D) - Thune is getting outspent but is pulling ahead of Daschle. Latest poll shows him with a 3 point lead over Daschle in votes; but a 13-point lead on favorable/unfavorable view. Too close to call yet; but Thune has a real chance to throw this F-rated candidate out on his ass.

South Carolina: Demint (R) vs. Tenebaum (D) - Demint has a 13 point lead in August; but a recent 9/9 poll shows Tenebaum trailing by only 3 points. This should be an easy seat for pro-gun voters to pick up. Let's not lose it through laziness. Demint has an A-rating from GOA so you know he is solid on guns. Best chance we have to replace a former F-rated vote with pro-gun vote. +1 Republicans/pro gun.

Washington: Nethercutt(R) vs. Murray(D) - Nethercutt has been a good supporter of RKBA. Murray is a rabid grabber who has a cash and incumbent advantage; but Nethercutt is within single digits and closing, albeit it slowly. He went from 8 points down in August to 7 points down by 9/8. If he can keep it up, he can still squeak out a win. Unfotunately, the current out look for this is Democrat/anti keeps seat


interesting...i agree with most of those, except for the NC...i just won't believe it till i see it.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 7:37:50 AM EST
bumpage
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 7:48:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By Waldo:

We have a rabid anti gun ****** (Fingerhut) running against a RINO (Voinovich)



Same thing in PA. - Hoeffel vs. Specter (the RINO). Hoeffel has little chance of winning. The upside is that he's giving up his House seat (he's in my district).

I'll probably vote third party, 'cause I just can't vote for Specter. Chances are he won't seek re-election in 2010 (he'll be in his 80s), so his true colors will be evident now - he won't care that he almost lost to a real Republican challenger.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 7:48:38 AM EST
In another thread someone was predicting +5 seats for the Rs in the senate.

I don't see that happening.

Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:03:47 AM EST

Originally Posted By Red_Beard:
In another thread someone was predicting +5 seats for the Rs in the senate.

I don't see that happening.



It is a realistic possibility; although it is more of a best-case scenario.

The Dems have 5 open Senate seats, all in the South. David Vitter, Johnny Isaakson and Jim Demint are polling way ahead of their competitors, so there are 3 R seats. If we can pick off Daschle (Thune leading in polls now) that is another R seat and we still have two more open races where the Rs can pick up a seat (North Carolina and Florida).

If the Rs can hold seats in Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma (all statistical ties right now and Bush states in 2000), they will pick up 3-4 seats just based on 50-50 odds. Get a little lucky and five seats are definitely possible.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:21:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By warlord:
Bill Jones hasn't got a snow ball's chance in hell to defeat Diane Fienstein.



I guarantee you that Jones will get more votes than Fienswine.


Too bad hes running against Babs "Bitch" Boxer.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:25:44 AM EST
We're screwed either way. Kerry as President or Kerry as Senator.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 9:30:41 AM EST
Senator John McCain, Arizona (R)INO
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:12:39 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By WackyG:
Not good...Bowles will probably win.


as bad as Dole beat him, i just can't believe that until he is sworn in....i think all the talk over bowles is just liberal hopes (same thing they said when dole ran against him)

It may not be that bad. Bowles was way ahead before Burr started to get a message out there. I haven't heard any recent NC polls.

One thing to think about: vurtually every pundit is griping about how little enthusiasm there is in the base for Kerry. If Kerry doesn't motivate his base to the polls, or if they percieve he's losing anyway, the votes may not be there to put Irksome in office.

JMHO.

C_M
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 11:40:27 AM EST

Originally Posted By Carbine_Man:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By WackyG:
Not good...Bowles will probably win.


as bad as Dole beat him, i just can't believe that until he is sworn in....i think all the talk over bowles is just liberal hopes (same thing they said when dole ran against him)

It may not be that bad. Bowles was way ahead before Burr started to get a message out there. I haven't heard any recent NC polls.

One thing to think about: vurtually every pundit is griping about how little enthusiasm there is in the base for Kerry. If Kerry doesn't motivate his base to the polls, or if they percieve he's losing anyway, the votes may not be there to put Irksome in office.

JMHO.

C_M


exactly. i think some of the Sen. candidates may be able to ride in on President Bush's coat-tails come nov.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 12:19:18 PM EST

Originally Posted By Red_Beard:
In another thread someone was predicting +5 seats for the Rs in the senate.

I don't see that happening.


the GOP picking up 2 or 3 wouldn't suprise me, i don't see 5 though.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 12:30:16 PM EST
Dorgan (D) will be keeping his seat in North Dakota this year.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 12:42:13 PM EST

Originally Posted By jblachly:
WHAT * COLORED THE MAP BACKWARDS?



I like those colors better. Back in the '80s, Blue was for Republican and Red Minnesota was for Mondale.

I think Red should be associated with Democrat; communism, china, USSR...
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 12:46:07 PM EST
On what bizzarro planet?
Murray got more votes that all of the Republican canadates did.
We are so screwed.




Originally Posted By bigscrun:
George Nethercutt (R) has a good chance of beating Patty Murray (D) here in WA. state. We need some help though, very liberal on the west side of the mountains.

Link Posted: 9/15/2004 12:49:52 PM EST

Originally Posted By cnorton:
I don't think that we will ever unseat the two bitches from my state.



They are a couple of alpha bitches. Jones can't even get the Republican party to get behind him.....waste of dough.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 2:49:40 PM EST
Like someting that belongs in the soviet union
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 2:52:07 PM EST

Originally Posted By NYPatriot:

We are fucked.


??????



Washington state is posessed by pinko commies.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 3:04:51 PM EST
I haven't heard or seen any campaign info from the republican candidate against schumer, but have seen a commercial or two from the conservative party candidate
repubs in this state are worthless
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 3:06:57 PM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By Carbine_Man:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By WackyG:
Not good...Bowles will probably win.


as bad as Dole beat him, i just can't believe that until he is sworn in....i think all the talk over bowles is just liberal hopes (same thing they said when dole ran against him)

It may not be that bad. Bowles was way ahead before Burr started to get a message out there. I haven't heard any recent NC polls.

One thing to think about: vurtually every pundit is griping about how little enthusiasm there is in the base for Kerry. If Kerry doesn't motivate his base to the polls, or if they percieve he's losing anyway, the votes may not be there to put Irksome in office.

JMHO.

C_M


exactly. i think some of the Sen. candidates may be able to ride in on President Bush's coat-tails come nov.



I pray that you are correct. Bowles is a piece of crap. He cries about textile workers losing their jobs and his wife's family owns the mills laying them off.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:53:24 PM EST
In PA it looks like another term for Specter, if Specter kicks the can he gets replaced by a democrat that was one reason he had a primary opponent.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 4:59:39 PM EST

Originally Posted By jblachly:
WHAT * COLORED THE MAP BACKWARDS?



Remember the old text books from grade school, red was an evil commie color on the map and blue were the good guys.
Link Posted: 9/15/2004 5:57:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts:
Louisiana: Vitter (R) leading 4-way race with 42% of the vote (9/2/04). Remaining Democrat vote is split among Dem candidates 19/16/3, meaning that even combined the Dems are way behind. +1 Republican/pro-gun


This could be really interesting... if Vitter (who is GREAT) doesn't get more than half the vote, he and the Democrat runner up will go into a runoff. Can you imagine if the balance of power in the Senate ends up depending on who wins this race? The money will be brought in via armored cars, and the campaign operatives will be airdropped in by the thousands.

It is indeed promising that Vitter's number currently beats the combined Democrat percentages. Usually, the way it happens here is that a Republican comes in first place with 40-something percent, and the Democrats duke it out for 2nd place. Then, all the Democrat votes consolidate, and the Democrat candidate ends up winning by a few percent.

--Mike
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