During a conversation with another gun nut I learned that he was a trauma doc at a big hospital here in Houston. After he told me that he has worked on a lot of shooting victims I asked him to give me an estimate of a person's survival probability after being shot with a handgun.

He said that a good guess for victims shot inside the loop (fwy) or not too far outside of it would be 70/30 in favor of survival. As long as the victim was not shot with a Black Talon. He said all of the victims he has worked on that were shot with this load died.

Maybe this is because someone who would load up with premium ammo is might be a better shot. Just a guess.

I've heard it 80% for handguns. So 70/30 sounds good.

I read this somewhere, but I can't remember where.  Handgun around 14% fatal, rifle like an AR or AK w/fmj around 17% fatal, shotgun something like 67% fatal.  I would think the doc would'nt know a black talon if it hit him the face.  I'll see if I can locate the source for the above info.
Edited to correct percentages, I was off by 2-3% on a couple of 'em, and to add the link.  [url]http://www.plusp.com/lesson22.html[/url]

I suspect it has a lot to do with determination and skill of the shooter!

Head shot with most anything is bad news - even a .22LR.  Heart shot with .45 has GOT to be very serious.  Gut or lung with anything except shotgun may be survivable if treatment begins soon enough.  Severed artery of a limb requires fast action to prevent bleeding out.  But then, look at people who survived .58 miniball that shattered a limb yet victim lived - minus the limb - in civil war!

Hey it's a trama doc.  Which means if it's not a solid lead round nose bullet, then it's a black talon. [:D]  

Who would shoot someone only once anyway? [;)]

OFFICER: "Son, why did you shoot the suspect 18 times?"

ME: "The magazine ran out, sir."

Here is an interesting article regarding ballistics wound testing of military rounds...

[url]http://home.snafu.de/l.moeller/military_bullet_wound_patterns.html[/url]

Maynard, Stealth,

This was a conversation that started during a 15 min break from a class. There were several non-shooters present and one of the women asked what a Black Talon was. The doc did a damn fine job of describing what one looked like after expanding.

He also talked about wound cavity characteristics of the .223 round. Said his dad was a Viet Nam surgeon. It was an interesting conversation. He sounded like he knew what he was talking about.

I was trying to get him to talk about motorcycle trauma since it was a MC class and one hardly ever hears anything about that subject. Wound test articles used to be a dime a dozen in the gun rags.  

I don't know the guy so I don't know if he's bs'ing or not.  I put a smiley to denote sarcasm.  [beer]

The motorcycle trauma info would be interesting though.  Many years ago my sister was dispatching for the state police and they had two instances where guys wrecked their ninja's and er... removed their manhood.  

Ben Coolie mentioned in the "Fighting Mindset" tapes that somewhere around 10% of people who get shot die. [b]IIRC[/b]

Speaking of motorcycle trauma, I've not been able to find any worthwhile information except that an astounding number of fatalities are single-vehicle crashes with alcohol playing a factor.  The powers that be don't want the "murdercycle" downplayed.  

Take the MSF course, it's great.

The thing you have to remember about these numbers is that they are AGGREGATES. In other words, that "80% survival rate" for handguns includes ALL handgun wounds including people that get winged in the forearm or grazed on the ear. If you narrowed it to center of mass shots, 9mm and up, hollowpoints, you'd see a much different number. If you look at national crime victimization survey data, you see that resistance is dangerous...until you disaggregate the data and look ONLY at your odds if you resist with a gun. Then you are several times LESS likely to be hurt than not resisting, particularly if you are female.

As far as the comments of this surgeon, no offense but he is clearly either repeating media BS or he is seeing a statistical skew that is explained by a large number of LE agencies/CCW holders in his area using the load. Or he just doesn't know a Black Talon from other JHP loads.

The reason I say this is that no data at all (Marshall & Sanow or FBI gelatin testing) indicate that it has any greater wounding ability than other JHP ammo. There's simply no explanation for his statement based on the universe of wound ballistics info available today.

that was very interesting. printed it for future reference.

I recall back around '92 or '93 when "Plus P" was on the AOL forums.  He's a smart guy and full of juice too.

The figure that was given to us at Thunder Ranch was that 85% of people shot with a handgun survive.

In a street survival course, we were told (that in America at least) that 98% of gunshot wounds that are not instantly fatal (death within a few seconds) are survivable, given modern medical care.

The point they were trying to make is that if you get hit and you are still alive, you can stay that way by not quitting and staying in the fight.

Casualty and mortality rates from previous wars show that casualty figures have been roughly 10 times larger than the mortality figures.  Bullet injuries are likely frequent among the possible causes but could also be among the least serious types of injuries, given the circumstances.  Say about a 90% survival rate.

But, some buddies and I put in some empirical testing yesterday (deer hunting) and managed to maintain a 100% kill rate.  Five deer hit, five highly tasty bodies.  And a rabbit.  Prompt medical attention wouldn't have helped any of 'em - all expired within seconds and suffered the loss of several major vital organs.  Handgun hunters have similar success rates, where allowed.  With appropriate shot placement, most other factors are irrelevant.

As a trauma surgeon, we only get to see the one's that survive long enough to get to the hospital alive. After that, the whole ball of wax really depends on what got hit. Caliber takes a major back seat to the exact structures injured. The majority of the patients I've seen with handgun wounds survive, though I often have to remove part of their intestines or fix some minor bleeding. Big time bleedings usually don't survive to the hospital, though occasionally they do. I have really been surprised over the years to see how well the human body can absorb bullets and not die.
Rifle and shotgun wounds are a WHOLE different class. Those patients usually suffer extensive tissue damage that is much more difficult to deal with. Oh, and as far as "Black Talon" are concerned, all the hollow points seem to do is stop the bullet sooner before it penetrates to deeper structures and causes more damage. It almost makes me want to carry FMJ rather than JHP in my Glock. Almost.
Now I have to qualify this because the majority of the woundings I see do seem to be non-hollow point, and it is possible the hollow point shootings just aren't surviving to the trauma bay. I don't know. But if I had to speculate based on my experience, I suspect there really is much less difference between JHP and FMJ when it comes down to handgun bullets.
I'll still spend the extra buck on decent HP carry ammo nevertheless, but I have learned if you really have to stop an intruder threating your life, a rifle or shotgun does a much better job than a handgun. A handgun is still better than a stick or rock however, and I don't know anyone willing to get shot with one who can avoid it. Bottom line...shot placement is the overwhelming determinant of degree of injury, and handguns don't fire magic bullets that make people just fall over dead. Get training and practice your placement.