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Posted: 7/1/2015 9:01:04 AM EDT
The first opinion poll regarding Sunday's vote has been published, by the newspaper "Efimerida ton Syntakton."

The big takeaway is that 54% would vote "no" to the demands of the creditors. (33% would vote "yes," with the rest undecided.)

This is not as large a "no" vote as Tsipras was hoping. He was talking 70% and up.

The polling was conducted over a period straddling the imposition of capital controls and the closing of the banks. The percentage of the "no" vote fell because of these events, from 57% to 46% (while the "yes" vote increased from 30% to 37%).

Momentum appears to be on the side of the "yes" vote.

Further, there was a distinct polarization in the answers. Supporters of the Syriza, Independent Greeks, Communist, and Nazi parties preferred "no" by big majorities, while supporters of the New Democracy, Potami, and PASOK parties (the so-called "bourgeois" parties) preferred "yes" by equally large majorites. That  is, the political center would go along with the creditors, while the political extremes would break with them.

If the 54% result holds up, it means that Tsipras probably wouldn't resign, but his negotiating position would be considerably weakened. If the "yes" vote prevails, it's hard to see how he could continue in office.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:34:02 AM EDT
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:48:17 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:50:50 AM EDT
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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Indeed.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 10:00:39 AM EDT
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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Link Posted: 7/1/2015 10:03:34 AM EDT
Hmm voting on giving myself "free" money. Seems legit.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 10:04:15 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 10:09:45 AM EDT
The majority of the country, obviously, does not want to repay the debt.  They've elected officials that campaigned on not repaying it.  Now, the majority is getting ready to vote to not repay it.  

Quit loaning them money and kick them out of the EU.  Let them see what it's like to be really poor, or to owe the gangsters in Russia money.  

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 10:10:11 AM EDT
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:21:30 AM EDT
The majority of the country, obviously, does not want to repay the debt. They've elected officials that campaigned on not repaying it. Now, the majority is getting ready to vote to not repay it.
View Quote


Not quite as simple as that. The referendum question is "yes" or "no" to the austerity conditions proposed by the lenders last Friday as a condition for continuing the program. That proposal was technically withdrawn by the lenders as soon as the referendum was announced.

The Greek counterproposal was very close to the lenders' proposal, and by Saturday even that distance had been bridged (by dropping the VAT on hotels from 23% to 13%, etc.). What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession. No one was proposing a unilateral writeoff of the debt.

So, Sunday's vote is largely symbolic. It's a test of strength for the various competing parties and forces within Greece; indeed, it's a vote of confidence in Tsipras.

http://www.efsyn.gr/sites/efsyn.gr/files/wysiwyg/galop-.jpg
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:25:37 AM EDT
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Quoted:
What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession.
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So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:28:36 AM EDT
President Romney wants to know if their polls are as accurate as ours?
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:38:46 AM EDT
So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.
View Quote


Building roads and other infrastructure (which, btw, would be built by private contractors) is Marxism?

George Washington and Alexander Hamilton did this in America, and it was long before Marx.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:41:41 AM EDT

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Indeed.
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Quoted:

Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.




Indeed.






Yep.



 
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:43:50 AM EDT
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Quoted:
The majority of the country, obviously, does not want to repay the debt.  They've elected officials that campaigned on not repaying it.  Now, the majority is getting ready to vote to not repay it.  

Quit loaning them money and kick them out of the EU.  Let them see what it's like to be really poor, or to owe the gangsters in Russia money.  

View Quote



this sounds right.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:44:09 AM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Building roads and other infrastructure (which, btw, would be built by private contractors) is Marxism?

George Washington and Alexander Hamilton did this in America, and it was long before Marx.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Quoted:
So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.


Building roads and other infrastructure (which, btw, would be built by private contractors) is Marxism?

George Washington and Alexander Hamilton did this in America, and it was long before Marx.


Our founders built roads because we needed the roads, not because the road builders needed the money.  

How much infrastructure does Greece need to keep NOT working and be a leech?
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:47:49 AM EDT
President Romney wants to know if their polls are as accurate as ours?
View Quote


It's a very fluid situation, and this poll, at best, is just a snapshot. My personal feeling is that the "yes" vote will win on Sunday. (If the "no" vote was going to win, it should have started out at 80%, prior to the closing of the banks, because of the loaded wording of the referendum question.) But the downside is that a "yes" vote will lead to further instability, calling into question the viability of the Tsipras government.

ETA: This means that Tsipras has a strong incentive to reach a settlement with the lenders before Sunday, so he can void the vote, or change his recommendation to the voters to a "yes," so he can avoid the political fallout.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:47:57 AM EDT
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:50:18 AM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Building roads and other infrastructure (which, btw, would be built by private contractors) is Marxism?

George Washington and Alexander Hamilton did this in America, and it was long before Marx.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Quoted:
So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.


Building roads and other infrastructure (which, btw, would be built by private contractors) is Marxism?

George Washington and Alexander Hamilton did this in America, and it was long before Marx.


In GD, everything is suspect of Marxism.

I've seen somebody here accuse Adam Smith of Marxist thought.  Adam. Frakking. Smith.

Just ignore the poo flingers
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:52:46 AM EDT
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Quoted:


It's not Marxist, but it is Keynesian,
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Meh... Keynes is just Marx with less testosterone.  
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 11:55:24 AM EDT
So they vote 'yes' and kick the can a little further. yawn.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:00:51 PM EDT
When in history have a people ever voted to cut their own benefits?

The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity.  Why would they now vote to accept austerity?

True: a default will probably hurt them in the long run.  The average Greek is not considering the long run.

My bet is on "no" winning this weekend.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:13:54 PM EDT
So they vote 'yes' and kick the can a little further. yawn.
View Quote


Regardless of the vote outcome, that's what's probably going to happen. Which means that we'll be talking about the "Greek crisis" for the next few years.

If I ruled Greece, back when the crisis came to a head in early 2010, I would have slapped a moratorium on debt payments and gone back to the drachma immediately. Shock treatment, but Greece would be in a much better position today. The guy that made the decision to call in the IMF, former prime minister George Papandreou, is so stupid that he verges on retarded (despite his half-American parentage and his American education).

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:14:43 PM EDT
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Quoted:


Not quite as simple as that. The referendum question is "yes" or "no" to the austerity conditions proposed by the lenders last Friday as a condition for continuing the program. That proposal was technically withdrawn by the lenders as soon as the referendum was announced.

The Greek counterproposal was very close to the lenders' proposal, and by Saturday even that distance had been bridged (by dropping the VAT on hotels from 23% to 13%, etc.). What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession. No one was proposing a unilateral writeoff of the debt.

So, Sunday's vote is largely symbolic. It's a test of strength for the various competing parties and forces within Greece; indeed, it's a vote of confidence in Tsipras.

http://www.efsyn.gr/sites/efsyn.gr/files/wysiwyg/galop-.jpg
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Quoted:
The majority of the country, obviously, does not want to repay the debt. They've elected officials that campaigned on not repaying it. Now, the majority is getting ready to vote to not repay it.


Not quite as simple as that. The referendum question is "yes" or "no" to the austerity conditions proposed by the lenders last Friday as a condition for continuing the program. That proposal was technically withdrawn by the lenders as soon as the referendum was announced.

The Greek counterproposal was very close to the lenders' proposal, and by Saturday even that distance had been bridged (by dropping the VAT on hotels from 23% to 13%, etc.). What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession. No one was proposing a unilateral writeoff of the debt.

So, Sunday's vote is largely symbolic. It's a test of strength for the various competing parties and forces within Greece; indeed, it's a vote of confidence in Tsipras.

http://www.efsyn.gr/sites/efsyn.gr/files/wysiwyg/galop-.jpg


In October 2011, they already wrote-down the debt by 50% of what they owed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis


If negotiations continue, they will argue over how much more to simply write off below the 50% they cannot pay right now.

I have not seen any realistic proposals on how they plan to collect any more of the taxes owed, but not paid.  Something like 53% of taxes go unpaid in Greece.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:20:49 PM EDT
The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity. Why would they now vote to accept austerity?
View Quote


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:45:47 PM EDT
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Quoted:


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Quoted:
The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity. Why would they now vote to accept austerity?


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.


Interesting that you bring up how frightened they are; officials from Syriza are accusing the opposition and the EU creditors of "scare-mongering."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-makes-concession-but-no-deal-seen-before-sunday-vote/

Just curious:  do you side with or possibly admire Syriza?  
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 12:58:35 PM EDT
This is what happens when stupid people participate in government.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 1:07:03 PM EDT
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Indeed.
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.


Indeed.


Can't be quoted enough
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 1:15:15 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Not quite as simple as that. The referendum question is "yes" or "no" to the austerity conditions proposed by the lenders last Friday as a condition for continuing the program. That proposal was technically withdrawn by the lenders as soon as the referendum was announced.

The Greek counterproposal was very close to the lenders' proposal, and by Saturday even that distance had been bridged (by dropping the VAT on hotels from 23% to 13%, etc.). What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession. No one was proposing a unilateral writeoff of the debt.

So, Sunday's vote is largely symbolic. It's a test of strength for the various competing parties and forces within Greece; indeed, it's a vote of confidence in Tsipras.

http://www.efsyn.gr/sites/efsyn.gr/files/wysiwyg/galop-.jpg
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The majority of the country, obviously, does not want to repay the debt. They've elected officials that campaigned on not repaying it. Now, the majority is getting ready to vote to not repay it.


Not quite as simple as that. The referendum question is "yes" or "no" to the austerity conditions proposed by the lenders last Friday as a condition for continuing the program. That proposal was technically withdrawn by the lenders as soon as the referendum was announced.

The Greek counterproposal was very close to the lenders' proposal, and by Saturday even that distance had been bridged (by dropping the VAT on hotels from 23% to 13%, etc.). What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession. No one was proposing a unilateral writeoff of the debt.

So, Sunday's vote is largely symbolic. It's a test of strength for the various competing parties and forces within Greece; indeed, it's a vote of confidence in Tsipras.

http://www.efsyn.gr/sites/efsyn.gr/files/wysiwyg/galop-.jpg

I voted "no" to my CC bill.  It's complicated.  I did not vote to write off the debt.  I'm just negotiating with Visa on repayment based on what my lifestyle can afford.
My counterproposal is very similar except for the repayment plan and my needs for additional funds to build apartments so that I can have more income to pay them back a portion of the money I've borrowed.

My inability to pay my bills is just a symbol of my independence and confidence.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 1:47:30 PM EDT
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Quoted:
When in history have a people ever voted to cut their own benefits?

The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity.  Why would they now vote to accept austerity?

True: a default will probably hurt them in the long run.  The average Greek is not considering the long run.

My bet is on "no" winning this weekend.
View Quote


No, a default would be good for Greece in the long run.  It would suck for Greece in the short run.

If Greece defaulted, all that government debt would be gone.  The "bad" side is that Greece would be instantly forced into maintaining a balanced budget.  The Greek government could not spend more than it took in in taxes.  

That would be great in the long run, but the immediate dislocation would be rough.  That will eventually come here too.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:09:16 PM EDT
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:09:26 PM EDT
Interesting that you bring up how frightened they are; officials from Syriza are accusing the opposition and the EU creditors of "scare-mongering."
View Quote


I follow the Greek press (both printed and electronic) closely. I notice that in the last few days there's been a "piling on" by the media in favor of a "yes" vote. And this is not only by the press, but by academic circles, the business community, etc. -- the whole Greek establishment. Even Elli Stai, the former anchor of state television, has come out for "yes." It looks like Tsipras is increasingly isolated. This is not going the way he expected.

I'm sure he and his staff can read the signs. That's why it wouldn't surprise me if the referendum was cancelled at the last minute, or if Tsipras himself recommended a "yes" vote, thereby defusing the issue. Otherwise, he may find himself in a precarious political position.

Just curious: do you side with or possibly admire Syriza?
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I've been saying all along that Greece should ditch the euro, go back to the drachma, and declare a unilateral moratorium on debt payments. This is not a popular position within Greece. In fact, only the Communists, the Nazis, and a minority portion of Syriza espouse it. Nevertheless, that's what's going to have to happen eventually.

Syriza's pre-election promises were not viable, and anyone with half a brain had to realize this. Nevertheless, I would have supported Syriza with the rationale that its inevitable failure (what we're seeing now) would lead to the results I just outlined. Certainly, the previous "ruling establishment" parties, New Democracy and PASOK, had spectacularly failed as well. They had the onus of having brought the country to this impasse, whereas Syriza had a clean slate.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:11:54 PM EDT
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:16:09 PM EDT
I voted "no" to my CC bill. It's complicated. I did not vote to write off the debt. I'm just negotiating with Visa on repayment based on what my lifestyle can afford.
My counterproposal is very similar except for the repayment plan and my needs for additional funds to build apartments so that I can have more income to pay them back a portion of the money I've borrowed.
View Quote


Sounds like a plan! If your debt to Visa is big enough, and they would otherwise never collect any of it, they might just agree to something like this. (Provided you submit what looks like a viable business plan.)
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:16:09 PM EDT
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Quoted:
Hmm voting on giving myself "free" money. Seems legit.
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“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.”

- Benjamin Franklin
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:16:38 PM EDT
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Quoted:


Interesting that you bring up how frightened they are; officials from Syriza are accusing the opposition and the EU creditors of "scare-mongering."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-makes-concession-but-no-deal-seen-before-sunday-vote/

Just curious:  do you side with or possibly admire Syriza?  
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Quoted:
The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity. Why would they now vote to accept austerity?


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.


Interesting that you bring up how frightened they are; officials from Syriza are accusing the opposition and the EU creditors of "scare-mongering."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-makes-concession-but-no-deal-seen-before-sunday-vote/

Just curious:  do you side with or possibly admire Syriza?  


AlexanderA is a Marxist, so yes.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:22:13 PM EDT
There is a lesson to be learned from Greece's situation. Unfortunately even those most affected by it don't seem to be able to learn it.
We're not far behind.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:25:36 PM EDT
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Quoted:


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.

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Quoted:
The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity. Why would they now vote to accept austerity?


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.



They've just had a taste of what life is going to be like if Greece exits the Euro.  Maybe it will be easier to get their hands on drachmas, but the currency will be heavily devalued.  

One of the problems is that no one has been asking the right questions.  It's not so simple a question of "do you want austerity?" or "do you want to be in the EU?", but instead should be "is staying in the EU important enough to pay the price of austerity put forth by the troika?".  

Syriza has been operating under the belief Greece could somehow stay in the EU while dramatically rolling back austerity.  Well, that isn't going to happen.  Either way Greece goes I think they are going to experience years, if not decades, of economic pain.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:34:40 PM EDT
I had seen in the news that they brought up this possibility, but also that there was no Greek Constitutional method by which the referendum could be postponed or cancelled.
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That report is based on a statement by Zoe Konstantopoulou, the president of the Greek parliament, that it would be unconstitutional to withdraw the referendum. However, Zoe Konstantopoulou has a well-deserved reputation for being vociferous, high-handed, and, well, "flakey." (She happens to be a member of the New York Bar, btw.) Tsipras has had to bring her back to reality more than once. If Tsipras really wanted to withdraw the referendum, I'm sure a way could be found to do so.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:38:53 PM EDT
AlexanderA is a Marxist, so yes.
View Quote


For the umpteenth time, I am not a Marxist. I don't even want to dignify these accusations by responding to them, so I generally don't.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:40:14 PM EDT
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For the umpteenth time, I am not a Marxist. I don't even want to dignify these accusations by responding to them, so I generally don't.
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AlexanderA is a Marxist, so yes.


For the umpteenth time, I am not a Marxist. I don't even want to dignify these accusations by responding to them, so I generally don't.


Just a Marxism enthusiast.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:41:33 PM EDT
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Quoted:


For the umpteenth time, I am not a Marxist. I don't even want to dignify these accusations by responding to them, so I generally don't.
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Quoted:
AlexanderA is a Marxist, so yes.


For the umpteenth time, I am not a Marxist. I don't even want to dignify these accusations by responding to them, so I generally don't.


Sorry. Correction.

AlexanderA is a socialist.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 2:57:22 PM EDT
Breaking:  Brussels (the Eurogroup, etc.) has declared an embargo against all contacts and negotiations with the Greek government until after Sunday's referendum.

This means that they're really taking a hard line, and trying to put Tsipras in a political box. They're not even allowing room for a face-saving way for him to cancel the referendum (which I'm sure he would do if there was even a glimmer of a settlement).

They're figuring that a large "yes" vote on Sunday would mean the end of the Tsipras government, and they would have a more compliant negotiating partner with whatever successor government emerges.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:00:41 PM EDT
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Quoted:


So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.

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Quoted:
What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession.


So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.



It'll totally work this time, just watch!
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:07:03 PM EDT
Kick them from the EU and no more lending.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:29:30 PM EDT
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Sounds like a plan! If your debt to Visa is big enough, and they would otherwise never collect any of it, they might just agree to something like this. (Provided you submit what looks like a viable business plan.)
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I voted "no" to my CC bill. It's complicated. I did not vote to write off the debt. I'm just negotiating with Visa on repayment based on what my lifestyle can afford.
My counterproposal is very similar except for the repayment plan and my needs for additional funds to build apartments so that I can have more income to pay them back a portion of the money I've borrowed.


Sounds like a plan! If your debt to Visa is big enough, and they would otherwise never collect any of it, they might just agree to something like this. (Provided you submit what looks like a viable business plan.)

???  I can't pay you... so loan me more that I can't pay back...

Is NOT a viable business plan.  Your plan says that it is not viable!  = loaning money to a crack head.

Being the biggest crack head on earth does not improve your bargaining position with lenders.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:32:00 PM EDT
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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The winning post!
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:33:58 PM EDT
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Quoted:


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.

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Quoted:
The Greeks elected Syriza to end austerity. Why would they now vote to accept austerity?


Because they're so frightened they're shitting their pants. Pensioners can only get 60 euros a day out of ATM machines, assuming that they know how to use ATM machines and are able to wait for hours in long lines. They simply can't live like this.



Then welcome to the real world as opposed to the fantasy they have been living most of their lives. Their country either needs to nut up and pay what they owe and cut government to do so (which I doubt they could even if they wanted to) or basically declare bankruptcy and start over, with the second move being to cut the government down to size and put a real system (of taxation, retirement, anti-corruption laws they actually enforce, and so on) in place (which they are not going to do.)
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:35:03 PM EDT
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Quoted:
Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.



At this point the are not really giving Greece money, they are paying off the people who were stupid to give Greece money.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:37:22 PM EDT
viable
[vahy-uh-buh l]
adjective
1.
capable of living.
2.
Physiology.
physically fitted to live.
(of a fetus) having reached such a stage of development as to be capable of living, under normal conditions, outside the uterus.
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Link Posted: 7/1/2015 3:40:00 PM EDT
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At this point the are not really giving Greece money, they are paying off the people who were stupid to give Greece money.
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Sure, but filtered through the socialist hole of suck and corruption that is the Greek government.  So it's basically like trying to put out a huge fire with a lake worth's of water, but using a colander.  
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