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Posted: 6/17/2011 8:17:32 AM EDT
In the days before Lehman Brothers collapsed, I spent hours on the phone with various officials of the U.S. government. All of them had the same message: there won't be a bailout of Lehman.

The market did not believe it. Almost every executive on Wall Street that I spoke to believed that the government would step in to prevent a bankruptcy at Lehman. That just seemed to be the smart, rational thing to do.

And now we're seeing the same thing with Greece.

Everyone understands that a Greek default would be horrific. And so everyone assumes that some gang of government operatives will step in to prevent it from happening.

Don't count on it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43430355

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:18:50 AM EDT
This could mean it has begun.

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:22:41 AM EDT
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:24:17 AM EDT
Originally Posted By scottlang:
In the days before Lehman Brothers collapsed, I spent hours on the phone with various officials of the U.S. government. All of them had the same message: there won't be a bailout of Lehman.

The market did not believe it. Almost every executive on Wall Street that I spoke to believed that the government would step in to prevent a bankruptcy at Lehman. That just seemed to be the smart, rational thing to do.

And now we're seeing the same thing with Greece.

Everyone understands that a Greek default would be horrific. And so everyone assumes that some gang of government operatives will step in to prevent it from happening.

Don't count on it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43430355





So what exactly are you suggesting?



A couple more cases of 5.56?
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:25:13 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


And what "contagion" will actually mean.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:27:14 AM EDT



Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.




What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?



 
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:32:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By red_on_black:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?
 


Possible bank holiday, end of Euro
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:35:12 AM EDT
Originally Posted By scottlang:
Originally Posted By red_on_black:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?
 


Possible bank holiday, end of Euro


Ive heard this as well.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:36:57 AM EDT
Originally Posted By scottlang:
Originally Posted By red_on_black:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?
 


Possible bank holiday, end of Euro


Germany is tired of propping up the rest of the Union. Let Greece fall.  Then reality will set in.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:37:02 AM EDT



Originally Posted By Merrell:


This could mean it has begun.





Welcome back.

 



There's been a disturbing lack of the above post in your absence. It just wasn't the same..
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:37:40 AM EDT
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:39:37 AM EDT


My 12 month prediction is for the survival of the Euro, and a 25% chance for the end of the IMF as we know it.

There is also 90% chance of contagion defaults.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:40:19 AM EDT
Originally Posted By JakeThePimp:
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.


Why wouldn't the EU simply kick Greece out?

Make them use their old currency and let them do with it what they wish.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:41:21 AM EDT
Originally Posted By JakeThePimp:
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.


Ireland...50%.

Spain...60%.

Depends on what internal vision of the Euro wins political.  If its the French, there is going to be the demand for the end of individual Euro state fiscal policy.  If its the German, non-hacking economies will be booted, and the Euro will survive.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:42:00 AM EDT
Originally Posted By rob78:
Originally Posted By JakeThePimp:
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.


Why wouldn't the EU simply kick Greece out?

Make them use their old currency and let them do with it what they wish.


Because, the internal EUcrats are using this crisis to double-down on integration.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:43:31 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Merrell:
This could mean it has begun.



It began a long time ago.  This is only another step.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:49:38 AM EDT
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:50:09 AM EDT



Originally Posted By 3one5:



Originally Posted By Merrell:

This could mean it has begun.







It began a long time ago.  This is only another step.


I think what the poster above you was trying to say is that this could, potentially, be worse than Y2K.





 
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:52:25 AM EDT
Originally Posted By rob78:
Originally Posted By JakeThePimp:
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.


Why wouldn't the EU simply kick Greece out?

Make them use their old currency and let them do with it what they wish.


What would that gain them?  Greece's debt is almost all in euro's; kicking them out would only make it harder to pay any of it back.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:53:29 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Once Greece defaults (and countries like Portugal looks like they will too), one possibility that has been talked about is the restructuring of the E.U. into a two-tiered kind of membership, with the stronger economies having more control, and the weaker and less reliable economies being more under their thumb.  While the Germans would LOVE that, I think it's a non-starter.


ECB will have accomplished what the Wehrmacht could not.

Personally, I am hoping it will break the Euro zone and slow down integration attempts - but Screechjet1 is right that some of the bureaucrats in Brussels are going to do everything that can to use this crisis to try to strengthen the Union, and try to get MORE centralized control into place.  It will be interesting, that's for sure.


You got those E&E and DZ maps for Denmark, yet? Might have to send in our Jedburghs to stave off the Huns.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:54:58 AM EDT
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:55:27 AM EDT
Originally Posted By scottlang:
In the days before Lehman Brothers collapsed, I spent hours on the phone with various officials of the U.S. government. All of them had the same message: there won't be a bailout of Lehman.

The market did not believe it. Almost every executive on Wall Street that I spoke to believed that the government would step in to prevent a bankruptcy at Lehman. That just seemed to be the smart, rational thing to do.

And now we're seeing the same thing with Greece.

Everyone understands that a Greek default would be horrific. And so everyone assumes that some gang of government operatives will step in to prevent it from happening.

Don't count on it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43430355



Horseshit.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:55:43 AM EDT
the devil always collects his debts.

just a matter of when.

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:59:27 AM EDT




Originally Posted By scottlang:



Originally Posted By red_on_black:





Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.




What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?





Possible bank holiday, end of Euro




Then I'll finally be able to shut up the Euro-loving socialists in my neck of the woods who pointed to the EU as the wave of the future.  Yeah, the shockwave could hit us here, but at least I'll get one last laugh in before it comes crumbling down.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 8:59:46 AM EDT



Originally Posted By AllserviceBilliards:



Originally Posted By scottlang:

In the days before Lehman Brothers collapsed, I spent hours on the phone with various officials of the U.S. government. All of them had the same message: there won't be a bailout of Lehman.



The market did not believe it. Almost every executive on Wall Street that I spoke to believed that the government would step in to prevent a bankruptcy at Lehman. That just seemed to be the smart, rational thing to do.



And now we're seeing the same thing with Greece.



Everyone understands that a Greek default would be horrific. And so everyone assumes that some gang of government operatives will step in to prevent it from happening.



Don't count on it.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/43430355







Horseshit.


Elaborate, please?





 
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:00:22 AM EDT




Originally Posted By dex357:



Originally Posted By scottlang:

In the days before Lehman Brothers collapsed, I spent hours on the phone with various officials of the U.S. government. All of them had the same message: there won't be a bailout of Lehman.



The market did not believe it. Almost every executive on Wall Street that I spoke to believed that the government would step in to prevent a bankruptcy at Lehman. That just seemed to be the smart, rational thing to do.



And now we're seeing the same thing with Greece.



Everyone understands that a Greek default would be horrific. And so everyone assumes that some gang of government operatives will step in to prevent it from happening.



Don't count on it.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/43430355




So what exactly are you suggesting?
A couple more cases of 5.56?


Why not 5.45?  When you do the math, it doesn't take long before you come out ahead.

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:01:57 AM EDT
Im trying to convince my brother and his fiancee to NOT honeymoon in greece in sept.  
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:03:13 AM EDT
Did I really make it in before Sherrick and the "everything is gonna be fine" people?



theyz trippin'

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:04:20 AM EDT
Originally Posted By R2point0:
Originally Posted By rob78:
Originally Posted By JakeThePimp:
Will Ireland and Spain default when Greece does or shortly after. Will the Euro be fucked? I'm anxious to see how it's played out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.


Why wouldn't the EU simply kick Greece out?

Make them use their old currency and let them do with it what they wish.


What would that gain them?  Greece's debt is almost all in euro's; kicking them out would only make it harder to pay any of it back.




And who owns the note on all those tens of billions in Euros?

Why, the rest of Europe!   They've all sold their respective debt to one another, thus they are all intertwined with the potential of massive losses as the domino effect would take the weakest and spiral outward.

Only a few countries would survive that in good shape:  namely the Germans.   They would do well because they're the region's economical powerhouse.   They could literally say "Fuck it," abandon the Euro and start cranking out Marks tomorrow and investors would eat it up.

Of course that would lay economic waste to the entire region, so there are always consequences.   The powers that be are betting that the Status Quo is the safest bet:  so kick the can down the road and hope it explodes on someone else's watch.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:04:39 AM EDT
You and I have given them $41B

535 criminals are robbing us blind....
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:11:34 AM EDT
Crazy debt, uncontrolled spending, and irresponsible behavior equals a crisis.

We're looking at the same thing here.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:12:05 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Once Greece defaults (and countries like Portugal looks like they will too), one possibility that has been talked about is the restructuring of the E.U. into a two-tiered kind of membership, with the stronger economies having more control, and the weaker and less reliable economies being more under their thumb.  While the Germans would LOVE that, I think it's a non-starter.


ECB will have accomplished what the Wehrmacht could not.


I was telling people this over 20 years ago, and people thought I was crazy.  


I was telling this to Germans in 2002.

They were bitching about the DM conversion, and I said, "Small price to pay for control of Europe."

I was looked at like I was a Neo-Nazi. Then told I was a Neo-Nazi.

"I'm the only one in here having sex with a non-white person!"
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:13:16 AM EDT
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


I was listening to a conference call with my financial advisor yesterday where someone from a large US bank was saying that the market had already priced in a Greek bailout.

The "market is forward-looking" church has a lot of rabid followers.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:15:27 AM EDT
Originally Posted By trwoprod:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


I was listening to a conference call with my financial advisor yesterday where someone from a large US bank was saying that the market had already priced in a Greek bailout.

The "market is forward-looking" church has a lot of rabid followers.


Sometimes, when people make stupid statements like "the market had already priced in a Greek bailout" you just want to move to Montana with a 30-30 and a U-haul full of Spam.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:15:43 AM EDT
Originally Posted By red_on_black:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


What do you expect the fallout will look like in the EU and here at home?
 


A massive liquidlity crisis in the EU and multiple bank runs, pushing a sudden solvency issue with vulnerable EU banks, possibly provoking a real world "stress test" where they have to recognise some of the bad real estate loans (France) and bad bond purchases (German).  Note that those two countries cannot possibly be considered (in a classic "not real Europeans" sense) on the periphery of the Eurozone.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:16:01 AM EDT




Originally Posted By MTUSA:

You and I have given them $41B



535 criminals are robbing us blind....




41 billion is pretty much a drop in the bucket.  Don't we spend more than that in a week?
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:18:56 AM EDT
"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money."  ––-Senator Everett Dirksen

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:19:34 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/17/2011 9:19:56 AM EDT by red_on_black]





Originally Posted By agillig:
Originally Posted By MTUSA:


You and I have given them $41B





535 criminals are robbing us blind....






41 billion is pretty much a drop in the bucket.  Don't we spend more than that in a week?






"A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon
you're talking about real money."  - Senator Dirksen



ETA: Beaten!





 
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:21:05 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/17/2011 9:24:54 AM EDT by dan45678]
The Greeks should default and stiff their creditors. Iceland did it in 2008. You won't hear much about it, except to say that, even though it worked there, it won't work elsewhere. This is because the financial media is pretty loyal to the big banks, who would take the hit.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/06/15/bloomberg1376-LMQTXK0UQVI901-2NQHGC7GLD6O8M4837NVVA3V5A.DTL

June 15 (Bloomberg) –– Iceland is warning Greece and Ireland not to copy its recovery model even though the Atlantic island managed a return to international debt markets less than three years after letting its banks default on $85 billion.

"Whatever you do, don't do what we did, it worked, but just don't do it!"

"People should be careful when it comes to drawing comparisons between Iceland on the one hand, and Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland on the other," Finance Minister Steingrimur J. Sigfusson said in an interview in Reykjavik. "Iceland didn't have the ability to save the banks. Trying to rewrite the events that led to that eventuality as some sort of an export product is irresponsible."

Nonsense, Iceland could have gone to the IMF and the European Central Bank JUST LIKE GREECE did.

Iceland's success in rebuilding its economy has been contrasted with the plight of euro member Ireland by economists including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. Ireland, where most bank debt has been protected by a state guarantee since 2008, would have been better off using Iceland's "bankrupting yourself to recovery" model, Krugman argued in a Nov. 24 New York Times column. Sigfusson says the advice could be dangerous, as European leaders try to agree on how investors share the cost of a second Greek rescue.

"Iceland should be humble and avoid advising other countries, especially when it comes to banking," Sigfusson said. "What happened was an emergency situation which couldn't be avoided."


There's a reason why he's saying this.

Iceland's first foreign-currency bond auction since 2006, a $1 billion debt sale, was twice oversubscribed as the island enjoys a return of "trust and respect and a certain degree of goodwill," Sigfusson said in the June 10 interview. The economy of Iceland, which has carried a junk grade at Fitch Ratings since January 2010, will grow 2.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2012, the OECD estimates.

Here's the reason! Iceland has to play nice with their rhetoric to kiss up to the banks to whom it wants to sell its debt.

In conclusion, Iceland continued to pay its GOVERNMENT creditors, stiffed its PRIVATE creditors, and is all the better for it. Greece should do the same. coughsoshouldamericacough.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:22:49 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
Originally Posted By trwoprod:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


I was listening to a conference call with my financial advisor yesterday where someone from a large US bank was saying that the market had already priced in a Greek bailout.

The "market is forward-looking" church has a lot of rabid followers.


Sometimes, when people make stupid statements like "the market had already priced in a Greek bailout" you just want to move to Montana with a 30-30 and a U-haul full of Spam.


Spokane, actually, but yeah.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:24:33 AM EDT
I guess this is the equivalent of a crowd gathering about a wounded man, watching him bleed out, while everyone assumes someone else has called 911 or is going to help the victim.

Of course, in Greece's case, the wounds are self inflicted.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:25:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/17/2011 9:26:42 AM EDT by Screechjet1]
Originally Posted By trwoprod:
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
Originally Posted By trwoprod:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Everyone knows that Greece will default - the question is when.


I was listening to a conference call with my financial advisor yesterday where someone from a large US bank was saying that the market had already priced in a Greek bailout.

The "market is forward-looking" church has a lot of rabid followers.


Sometimes, when people make stupid statements like "the market had already priced in a Greek bailout" you just want to move to Montana with a 30-30 and a U-haul full of Spam.


Spokane, actually, but yeah.


Your welcome where ever I'm at. I've got about a 1000 questions for you.  Bring gravy, and I'll make a Maui Sunrise and we'll drink vodka.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:27:12 AM EDT
Please forcast about ITALY. I'll be spending TONS there to import a item not made here.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:27:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 6/17/2011 9:28:26 AM EDT by Psychovore]
First we need to airlift out any remaining Greek .30-06 ammo to feed hungry Garands here in the U.S.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:29:10 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Once Greece defaults (and countries like Portugal looks like they will too), one possibility that has been talked about is the restructuring of the E.U. into a two-tiered kind of membership, with the stronger economies having more control, and the weaker and less reliable economies being more under their thumb.  While the Germans would LOVE that, I think it's a non-starter.


ECB will have accomplished what the Wehrmacht could not.


I was telling people this over 20 years ago, and people thought I was crazy.  


I was telling this to Germans in 2002.

They were bitching about the DM conversion, and I said, "Small price to pay for control of Europe."

I was looked at like I was a Neo-Nazi. Then told I was a Neo-Nazi.

"I'm the only one in here having sex with a non-white person!"


Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:30:29 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:


Sometimes, when people make stupid statements like "the market had already priced in a Greek bailout" you just want to move to Montana with a 30-30 and a U-haul full of Spam.


Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:33:23 AM EDT




Originally Posted By HullBreach:

I guess this is the equivalent of a crowd gathering about a wounded man, watching him bleed out, while everyone assumes someone else has called 911 or is going to help the victim.



Of course, in Greece's case, the wounds are self inflicted.




Honestly, I think the best thing for freedom is to let this one bleed out.  People need to seriously wake up.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:36:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By agillig:

Originally Posted By MTUSA:
You and I have given them $41B

535 criminals are robbing us blind....


41 billion is pretty much a drop in the bucket.  Don't we spend more than that in a week?


I seem to remember something on the order of $189 billion borrowed for every hour the government operates.

Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:40:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Kihn:
Originally Posted By agillig:

Originally Posted By MTUSA:
You and I have given them $41B

535 criminals are robbing us blind....


41 billion is pretty much a drop in the bucket.  Don't we spend more than that in a week?


I seem to remember something on the order of $189 billion borrowed for every hour the government operates.



No way. It's more like  $150 billion per month.
Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:42:46 AM EDT


I saw this in the comments section.  What does the hive make of it?  




















bbmak | Jun 17, 2011 10:14 AM  ET


Even if EU has no bailout, China will bail out Greek. Statement was released yesterday from China official.










Link Posted: 6/17/2011 9:46:47 AM EDT
Originally Posted By agillig:
I saw this in the comments section.  What does the hive make of it?  



bbmak | Jun 17, 2011 10:14 AM  ET
Even if EU has no bailout, China will bail out Greek. Statement was released yesterday from China official.








Probably bullshit.

Chinese fanboi-ism.

The problem with any bailout is that the underlying fundamentals that got the Greeks where they are, namely employment and productivity, just are too low to sustain their standard of living and debt/pension/social service obligations.

If the Chinese throw money down the Greek rathole, they are dumb than I look.
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