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Posted: 9/22/2004 7:50:09 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/22/2004 7:55:07 PM EST by NYPatriot]
www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1224331/posts?page=26


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.

The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options -- at least for now -- in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.

While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.

The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.

Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.

With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush to defend the GOP turf.

Bush and the Republican National Committee have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets -- $330,000 this week alone -- to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore won four years ago.

Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.

Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon -- all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.

Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.

Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.

Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-267.





Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:50:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/22/2004 7:51:36 PM EST by ar50troll]
Good news for freedom.

It would be nice to see him piss away that money in those states though. He'll just spend it on the bttleground ones now. But he's gonna lose those too
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:51:17 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/22/2004 7:51:29 PM EST by repub18]
"Hey Kerry get the hell out of here, we dont want ya"
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:53:22 PM EST
Thats a good one.


Who is going to sat the SgtAr15 line?
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:53:35 PM EST
Missouri is no longer a battleground state.

Woot!
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:55:05 PM EST

Originally Posted By Taxman:
Thats a good one.


Who is going to sat the SgtAr15 line?



45 states and maybe California.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:55:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/22/2004 7:56:10 PM EST by repub18]
"Hey Kerry I have a idea save your god damn money and concede the whole election"
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:56:08 PM EST

Originally Posted By _Ugly_:
Missouri is no longer a battleground state.

Woot!



For about 105 years, as Missouri goes so goes the nation. There have been two exceptions to that rule in all that time. It's as close to an indicator of who will win the presidency as you can get.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:57:04 PM EST
I can see Karl Rove kicking back with a glass of Scotch and a Cuban cigar . . .

"I love it when a plan comes together"

_Disconnector_
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:57:34 PM EST
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:58:13 PM EST
I can't wait for this election to be over...you guys in non battleground states have no idea how many ads we have to put up with...
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:58:28 PM EST
Arizona was NEVER a battleground state!

Unless you believe C......BS

Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:58:29 PM EST

Originally Posted By GrH_Revelation:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state



It could be worse, look at where I live!
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:58:36 PM EST

Originally Posted By GrH_Revelation:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state




just be glad you dont live in Cali
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 7:59:29 PM EST
It would be nice if Zogby got up to speed on what even Kerry realizes... www.electoral-vote.com
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 8:40:00 PM EST

Originally Posted By SnapNshoot:
Arizona was NEVER a battleground state!

Unless you believe C......BS





I dunno, look at our bull-dyke governor.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 8:57:05 PM EST
WHOOOHOOOO!!!!!

Ok, I've got that out of my system now.

But damn this is good news.....it means I don't have to listen to as many farking kerry kommertials.


Interesting bit of trivia about missouri being an indicator....where'd you find that one at? (I'd like to do a bit more reading just because its kind of interesting to me)
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 9:24:14 PM EST
want to see a better map go here I love that color
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 9:46:00 PM EST

Originally Posted By Combat_Jack:

Originally Posted By GrH_Revelation:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state



It could be worse, look at where I live!


Hell, that's nothing. Look where I live!

CW
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 10:23:06 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/22/2004 10:33:53 PM EST by M4C]
Kerry is an unmitigated disaster. It will be a shocking landslide win for Bush. Kerry (Herrman Munster) will forever be the poster boy for how NOT to run a campaign. It is astonishing to see the reckless positions this man takes and all the while hoping to win. Gore was genius compared to this assclown from Massachusetts. That Heinz ketchup lady is a piece of work too.
Nobody wants The Herrman.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 10:55:03 PM EST
Its a ridiculous thought that an assclown on the level of John Kerry is even in the race, but I expected Bush Sr to beat Clinton no prob. I am much more politically intune now.

Interesting fact about MO. I fucking hate StLouis, and would just as soon give it all to Illinois, hell they are up to their pie holes in liberal assholes anyway. Here in Springfield you have to go to campus to find the real libs, otherwise even most "democrats" are pretty conservative.

Glad to see that Kerry is on the ropes, no one give up though! Do not let this idiot come close! If we get a draft in Febuary, I want Bush in charge! (Do not turn this thread into a draft debate)
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 10:58:58 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 11:43:25 PM EST
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 11:46:39 PM EST

Originally Posted By CavVet:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.



I would be surprised, but I won't discount the possiblilty. Kerry's campaign is run every bit as poorly as Gore's was, but W has a good campaign going.
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 11:47:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By CavVet:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.



How confident are you? Portland follows Seattle. I'm in Portland. I hope you're right!
Link Posted: 9/22/2004 11:56:44 PM EST
All of WA is conservative except Greater King County (Seattle) Metro area.

As Busmaster has already reported, there are GW stickers everywhere. The other day I was on I-5, in the city limits, and there were 4 cars, side by side with GW stickers. Plus mine (thanks Sniper Wolfe!).

GW takes the rest of the state plus 30+% of the liberal section= 11 electorial votes GWB!

4 MORE YEARS!!!!


Oh yeah, my liberal democrat brother-in-law (Seattle) is voting Bush! "Homeland security is job one, and Kerry cant get the job done". I was like . I made him say it again.




Link Posted: 9/23/2004 12:05:23 AM EST
... Good!

... Maybe next week I should "vacation" in California
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:12:02 AM EST
We need to compete against Kerry in places like NJ and CT--that would really get his attention!

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:18:16 AM EST
Not that I put much weight into polls, it looks like Wisconsin might be his as well:

www.jsonline.com/graphics/news/img/sep04/badger092304.gif

Been a long time since this state went to a republican.

(I think it's got a lot to do with Kerry's "Lambert Field" comment"
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:28:03 AM EST

Originally Posted By repub18:

Originally Posted By GrH_Revelation:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state




just be glad you dont live in Cali



Or Michigan.
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:34:02 AM EST
The AOL STRAW POLL, is that right or did somebody play with it?
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:36:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By CavVet:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.



I hope you are right brother!

Before Dubya was elected Governor we had the worst Governor in the history of the great State of Texas.

That would be the infamous Ann Richards.

Maybe this will be the election that all those Blue States turn Red!

BigDozer66
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 4:40:33 AM EST

Originally Posted By Dolomite:
Not that I put much weight into polls, it looks like Wisconsin might be his as well:

www.jsonline.com/graphics/news/img/sep04/badger092304.gif

Been a long time since this state went to a republican.

(I think it's got a lot to do with Kerry's "Lambert Field" comment"



[sKerry]Man I just love to see those Packers when they do the 'Lambert Leap'![/sKerry]


Bwahaha!

I hadn't heard about that one yet!

Where is the pic of him trying to catch the football and looking like a grade school girl?

Does that give school girls a bad name? If so I'll change it!

BigDozer66
Link Posted: 9/23/2004 5:36:04 AM EST
Only wish he spent all his funds in these states
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