Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login
Site Notices
11/24/2017 4:44:23 PM
11/22/2017 10:05:29 PM
Posted: 9/17/2004 7:08:02 AM EST
Nationwide, read it and weep.

quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aZ41_ZpqyBaA&refer=top_world_news


Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry by 13 percentage points in a Gallup poll conducted for CNN and USA Today. Three other national polls this week showed the race in a statistical tie.

Among people identified as likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election, 55 percent backed Bush compared with 42 percent for Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts. The Gallup poll of 767 likely voters, conducted Sept. 13-15, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:11:20 AM EST
The DNC called the Gallup poll an "anomaly"...whatever, Kerry...you're going down in flames...BUH BYE!!!
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:36:10 AM EST
I just saw this reported on local news. The anchor ended the story by saying, "Of course, just one month before the 2000 election, Al Gore had a similar lead over George Bush." I'm really sick of the media showing their bias.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:38:39 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 7:42:44 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:29:29 AM EST
DNC has reason to call it a anomoly- the Pew Research Group also conducted a poll this week that Bush with a statisticly insignificant lead of just one percent.


Updated: 01:08 PM EDT
New Poll Shows Bush, Kerry in Virtual Tie
Another Has Bush Leading by 14 Points; 'Voter Opinion Is Unsettled,' Analyst Says
By WILL LESTER, AP

WASHINGTON (Sept. 17) -- President Bush has a double-digit lead in one new national poll, but he's tied with Democrat John Kerry in another. Both campaigns say their own polling has the race close, with Bush's people seeing a slight lead for the president.



AFP/Getty
Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on the question of who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists.

Kerry and Bush are tied in a Pew Research Center poll taken Sept. 11-14, after Bush was up by 12 points or more from a Pew sample taken Sept. 8-10. A Gallup poll being released early Friday has Bush up 54 percent to 40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

''After so long when the polls were deadlocked no matter what happened, now we have a situation where voter opinion is unsettled,'' said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. ''There's a lot of uncertainty and you're going to have more variation in the polls than we've had in the past.''


Talk About It


· Post a Message
· Top News Boards

The first of two national polls by Pew, done Sept. 8-10, reflected the president's post-convention bounce. Bush was ahead of Kerry 52-40 among registered voters and by an even wider margin, 54-39, among likely voters, a narrower group.

By the second poll, done Sept. 11-14, the Bush lead had evaporated, the center said Thursday. In that poll, Bush and Kerry were knotted at 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.



Broadband Only
Evaluating the New Polls


While Bush has held onto some positive impact from the GOP convention, his ''vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race,'' Kohut said.

After the Republican convention and its four days of criticism of Kerry, Bush grabbed a lead ranging from 5 points to 11 points in various national polls. That lead appeared to be shrinking by late last week, and a Harris poll out Thursday also showed the race even.

Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on the question of who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists, by 58 percent to 31 percent in the Pew poll. And he's seen by more as a strong leader.

But people are more likely to disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and are evenly split on his dealing with Iraq. Almost six in 10 said it's not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is re-elected.

Interest in the presidential debates is high with 61 percent saying it's very likely they will tune in to watch - compared with 43 percent who said that in September 2000. Three in 10 said the debates will matter in their voting decision.



You asked: Will the candidates know the questions in advance during the presidential debates?



By a 3-1 margin, voters said they think Bush is likely to win re-election in November.

The first Pew poll of 970 registered voters was taken Sept. 8-10 and the second poll of 1,002 registered voters was taken Sept. 11-14. The margin of sampling error for both polls was 3.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll of 767 likely voters was taken Sept. 13-15 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


09-17-04 0549 EDT

Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.



SO ARE THEY LYING? Or merely INCOMPITENT
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:38:59 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 8:48:48 AM EST by PAEBR332]
Pew did a first poll which showed results similar to what Gallup announced today(52% to 40%). Pew canned the poll, changed the questions, and voila', statistical tie.

They refer to their two "waves" of interviews on their website.

ETA to correct spelling. Thanks HiramRanger.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:44:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:50:45 AM EST
This is really good news...I think that if the far left feels Kerry has no chance, they will go out and vote for Nader to make a point for '08. This could create a snowball effect, that could put Kerry someplace between Mondale and Dukakis...
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 8:57:15 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:00:13 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:07:09 AM EST
Well, I am glad Gallup shows a larger margin, but if the republiccans in their own polling admit the race is tight, that's still a little unsettling. I mean if they had a 10-15 point lead, would they not be talking about it? I dunno what to make of these polls anymore.

All I can say is that I hope whatever the swift boat guys has for October is really big. I don't wanna go into November in a statistical dead heat.

And whether this is election is close or not, it shouldn't be. Considering the opponent is Kerry, we should be ahead by at least 25 points. The fact a scumbag like him can even stay relatively close to Bush shows how stupid many of the voters really are.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:23:26 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 9:40:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By squeezecockerp7m8:
This is really good news...I think that if the far left feels Kerry has no chance, they will go out and vote for Nader to make a point for '08. This could create a snowball effect, that could put Kerry someplace between Mondale and Dukakis...



Speaking of snowballs, when it's all over can we use sKerry's daughter as the Snowball Queen
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:33:54 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:45:49 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:

Well, I am glad Gallup shows a larger margin, but if the republiccans in their own polling admit the race is tight, that's still a little unsettling. I mean if they had a 10-15 point lead, would they not be talking about it?


No, they would not admit to having a huge lead. The don't want to put the kibosh on fund rasing and turn-out efforts that would help house and senate candidates.




HM gets it



Also if everyone thinks it's a slam dunk for Bush, it may negatively affect voter turnout.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:47:13 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:51:49 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
My boys see the light... testify brother... testify... and if there is too big of a projected lead... where might those libertarian Bush voters go?



They might... umm... vote for that tax-dodger guy... you know... What is his name? Badnarcotic?
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:53:50 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/17/2004 10:54:41 AM EST by HeavyMetal]
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:55:58 AM EST
If this was a Kerry lead ... everyone would be chanting "polls don't mean anything ... there's still a month+ to the election".

Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:56:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By Chaingun:

Originally Posted By squeezecockerp7m8:
This is really good news...I think that if the far left feels Kerry has no chance, they will go out and vote for Nader to make a point for '08. This could create a snowball effect, that could put Kerry someplace between Mondale and Dukakis...



Speaking of snowballs, when it's all over can we use sKerry's daughter as the Snowball Queen



I would prefer she be the speedball queen.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:58:19 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 10:59:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 2:18:10 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 2:27:17 PM EST

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
......and another breaking poll.......


CBS/NYT poll Sept 13-16...Bush 50...Kerry 41...



I'll take that one. It's nice to see another national poll somewhat backing up the Gallup. While not showing quite as big a lead, it's pretty significant considering how close the election has been up until this point.

Now, let's just hope it grows or at least holds steady.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 2:29:37 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Well I've seen some internals, the lead is not 14... but it isn't 1-5 either. But once again, national polls are nice, but you need to follow state polls!



I've been guessing in the 7 point range.
Link Posted: 9/17/2004 2:37:38 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 7:01:16 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 1:18:48 PM EST

Originally Posted By dport:
I've been guessing in the 7 point range.


That sounds reasonable.

14 % just doesn’t make sense. Some people would vote Democratic even if the candidate was a rock!

Pew scares me, though.

IIRC, after Bush was consistently polling with a slight lead into the eve of the 2000 election, Pew was the first to find the swing toward Gore maybe the day before the election which ultimately gave Gore a plurality in the popular (but not electoral) vote.

I hope they’re not right a second time!!
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 5:50:56 PM EST
In 2000 the Dems beat all guesses (including their own??) about their own turnout.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 5:56:11 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2004 6:01:47 PM EST by IamtheNRA]
Pew is left-biased...the Pew Charitable Trusts receive $$$ from Heinz-Kerry...

www.undueinfluence.com/tidescenter.htm
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 5:59:29 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 6:16:45 PM EST
Its all about the turnout gentlemen. The dems moved hard in 2000 and the republicans did not not. Vote early and get your friends out too.
I cant vote but I am working hard on my end. I have three for sure converts and two pretty sures. I will drive them all to the polls if I have to.
Link Posted: 9/18/2004 7:25:26 PM EST
Top Top