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Posted: 5/2/2011 2:42:31 AM EDT
Barely escapes death in the last 48 hours in an attack that killed his son and grandchildren?
"Hey, how about THIS info to let me stay?"
I bet Gaddafi survives his present troubles and that sweet Libyan light crude is flowing again soon.
If Gaddafi survives? Yeah, I'd put big money on it.
And? If Obama had heard about OBL last August, as in two months before the Congressional mid-terms? He could have nailed OBL just before the Congressional midterms/ass-stomping the democrats took.
Waiting until now while losing the House and the critical numbers in the Senate?
That isn't how Obama operates, IMO.
What makes you think Ghaddafi had any info on bin laden?
If he did know, why would he give it up after his family was killed?
Why would the U.S. cut a deal with him?
Did you consider the possibility of a Republican congress pushing for bin laden's end,
as opposed to believing it would have happened with a democrat congress?
Or that intel gathering and planning could be important enough to spend time on it, instead of going in on assumptions?
Instead of using this event for congressional mid-terms, wouldn't it be better utilized as a success story for a 2012 re-election bid?
What makes you think Ghaddafi had any info on bin laden? Connections in the Arab world, connections to past terror, past deals with Western Intelligence. Timing. Totally wrong for Obama if he could have acted before the Midterm Massacre of Democrats [Obama said, and it was reported, that Obama got critical info in 8/10, 2 months before the Midterms], Totally correct for Gaddafi because he knew his number was up and needed to use his "Ace in the Hole" to cut a deal.
If he did know, why would he give it up after his family was killed? He didn't think they would actually kill him or would be able to find him. About 72 hours ago Gaddafi learned he was wrong on both counts. He has been cutting deals with Western Intelligence and consorting with terrorists alternately for decades. Sponsored Lockerbee, then got a deal to get the Lockerbee bomber released.
Why would the U.S. cut a deal with him? Obama is hurting. Libya is a mess. Oil prices are running out of control and Gaddafi/Libya has some of the highest quality crude in the world. Obama doesn't want another war. A stable Libya, regardless of who is in charge is in America's economic interests.
Did you consider the possibility of a Republican congress pushing for bin laden's end, as opposed to believing it would have happened with a democrat congress? Obama couldn't care less what the Republican Congress thinks.
Or that intel gathering and planning could be important enough to spend time on it, instead of going in on assumptions? 8/10 to 5/11 is a hell of a lot of time. I don't believe Rahm Emanual would have allowed Obama to wait. I don't believe either of them would want the ire of all the democrats they might have saved in the Mid-Terms if Obama had just killed or captured OBL right before the November 2010 Midterms.
Instead of using this event for congressional mid-terms, wouldn't it be better utilized as a success story for a 2012 re-election bid? No, OBL slipped past us at Tora Bora. Very unlikely they'd just leave him out there for MONTHS during which he could elude the US again. 2012 is still a very long ways away politically-speaking. Obama acted now because he just got actionable details from Gaddafi [or maybe the Saudis, Bahrainis or Syrians , they are all in deep shit too, with their populations enraged over food price inflation and the general instability in the Arab world.]
Speculation, of course. But I don't believe for a second that Obama knew the location of the compound in August 2010 and let himself lose Congress for the rest of his term if he could have used the capture of OBL to political advantage.
The Arab/Muslim world has only become dramatically unstable over the past couple months. All that shaking, and the fears of dictators like Gaddafi, the Saudis and the Syrian leadership, shook the living shit out of the bushes and the intel on OBL came into our hands after a deal of some kind. [opinion, obviously]
I'll be watching for Gaddafi's miraculous passage through the unrest that took down all the dictators around him, but somehow left him standing.
To take the contrarian view, I prefer Gaddafi to remain in power. He's a dictator whose loves himself. I know he's responsible for the Muslim killing of Christians in the Sudan. I know he's sponsored terrorism worldwide too. That said, he's still the lesser of two evils when you compare him to the Muslim Brotherhood and the pro-Al Qaeda rebels in Libya. The FBI has learned that 90% of suicide bombers are Libyans and that they come from the cities now in revolt. There''s a connection and because of the connection, I'd rather have Gaddaffi kill them all for us than us kill Gaddafi
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