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Posted: 10/30/2004 11:07:49 AM EDT
Not sure if we should worry, but it was done October 27 - 28th, which was at the height of the explosive BS and before the UBL video.

Not sure if we should worry, but it was done October 28 - 29th, which was at the height of the explosive BS and UBL video.

PDF

Fox News Story

Let's NOT get too cocky on this one! I get the feeling many people are around here.

I have a feeling this is a combination of very good numbers from Wednesday falling out of the track and poor numbers from Thursday remaining behind. It will be very interesting to see the numbers tomorrow, when the UBL tape is included in the entire sample.  

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:08:34 AM EDT
Bush still leads and that is good for me.  

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:13:15 AM EDT
The one I saw on Fox yesterday said 50 to 47 with Bush in the lead.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:13:55 AM EDT
It takes a couple of days for the effects of "scandals" and terror threats to be reflected in the polls.

I am starting to get nervous too.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:16:11 AM EDT
this is killing me
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:25:17 AM EDT
National polls mean nothing. It is battleground swing state polls that matter more.


Polls this year are all over the place. This is because of the very unique nature of this election.

1] Polls and people are failing to account for the fact that there is a "war time" mood in America, and this can cause traditional indictators to be way off. (see Truman)

2] Bush is clearly ahead in voter confidence when it comes to terror, yet his approval rating is weak.

3] Kerry, no matter what he has done, has failed to ever pull away from Bush.

4] Bush for the first time ever, has pulled away more Black and Women voters from a Democrat then ever.

5] The Democrats have succeeded in registering and mobilizing the biggest election assault of all time.

6] Conservatives and Republicans tend to be the quiet majority, while liberals and democrats tend to be the loud minority.

7] Many media sources are intentionally keeping the election closer than it really is. In todays cable NEWS TV 24/7/365 coverage for short-attention span Americans, a close election mixed with "breaking news" for every little thing is needed to keep eyes on the tube.

8] The NRA and gun owners are AGAIN being underestimated terribly by both campaigns and by the media.

9] While Bush has none of the traditional indicators of winning, this is a war time American atmosphere and Kerry is no alternative (proved because Kerry can't pull ahead), therefore things once thought to be crucial to a win are not valid this year. AKA, certain "records" or "trends" will not apply.

10] An interesting study showed that Bush supporters were 5x as likely as Kerry supporters to DENY that they support Bush publicly or when asked. All because of the overwhelming brownshirt style liberal media assault on the NOTION of even liking Bush.


11] States that were always hard-core liberal havens are borderline states now. NJ, Hawaii, Minnesota et al....they are not in Bush's corner by any stretch, but they are not solid for the Kerry as they have been for any other Democrat before.



When you add it all up, it just doesn't add up. I think Bush will win, and by a little more than what the media claims. While Bush doesn't have the historical indicators of winning, the War on Terror negates those influences on America. Things like approval rating, market going up or down from labor day to election day etc....


Kerry on the otherhand, is losing 2x as many minority votes, and lost the 11pt Women voter lead Gore had. That alone is extremely devistating. All while he has no steady strong states other than NY, Mass and Cali.



Bush will win.Don't leave it to chance GO VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:28:59 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:32:43 AM EDT
Oversampling women is in clear favor of Kerry.


If you were to oversample women by that extreme amount, Kerry could make up 5pts in a general national poll when everything is mixed in.


Like Black votes. Bush might have taken 15% of them vs. 5% in past Republican efforts, but if 2x as many Blacks show up to vote, who cares if Bush even gets 25%, he is still losing overall when you apply that to the rest of the population or sample being polled.


I think the polls are highly screwed up. Like I said, things don't look peachy for Bush, but NOTHING is adding up for Kerry at all.....Only a massive swing state surprise like in Ohio with voter fraud or their claimed mass registration efforts can pull it off.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:34:00 AM EDT
Bush does not poll well from Friday to Sunday. Republicans are busy with their lives. This has been covered many many times on this board.

The most accurate polls will be the ones release Friday afternoon. Even then no poll will be able to account for the UBL tape.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:38:03 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:38:23 AM EDT
Like Ann Coulter says,

one step to converting a Liberal is to get them to move out of their parents house, have them get a job and pay taxes.



Link Posted: 10/30/2004 11:49:15 AM EDT

Quoted:
Like Ann Coulter says,

one step to converting a Liberal is to get them to move out of their parents house, have them get a job and pay taxes.








I can think of plenty worse things to say about these characters!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:11:19 PM EDT

Quoted:
this is killing me



Ditto.
I keep having Klintonesque nightmares about being continually oppressed as a 'firearms enthusiast'...
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:23:09 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:34:06 PM EDT
Bush 50 Kerry 45 as of last nite on Fox. This is looking good.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:37:45 PM EDT
W deserves 55%
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:38:40 PM EDT

Quoted:
Bush 50 Kerry 45 as of last nite on Fox. This is looking good.



Those were OLD numbers - these are new ones

But as I said in the original post - these numbers were taken at the height of the RDX bull shit. Also, the video came out Oct 29, and these numbers end with the 28th. Finally, Kerry did NOT gain support, which is also a plus.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:46:00 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 12:50:23 PM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:
Bush 50 Kerry 45 as of last nite on Fox. This is looking good.



Those were OLD numbers - these are new ones

But as I said in the original post - these numbers were taken at the height of the RDX bull shit. Also, the video came out Oct 29, and these numbers end with the 28th. Finally, Kerry did NOT gain support, which is also a plus.




That's incorrect. The new numbers end the night of the 29th, which is the start of the period Bush does not poll well in, ie the weekend. Don't sweat these numbers, just do what you can to make sure turnout is in our favor on the 2nd.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 2:42:22 PM EDT
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