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Posted: 9/27/2004 11:33:43 PM EST
In the long term I'm wondering what the effect will be of the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Surely real estate values will drastically decline. Especially on the water front. The manufactured home industry may never recover because of customer loss of confidence. Radical changes in the construction codes are inevitable.

Real estate agents can expect substantial income reduction. Other areas, like WV and TN will take up a lot of the retirees that are moving out of FL or are coming down to retire. Real estate prices go up.

New building codes will be demanded by the insurance industry or they will not insure a home. This will lead to a long overdue surge in dome homes, poured concrete structures, earth covered, etc. The type of strong structures that should have been common long before now, but consumer demand just wasn't there. The belief was they weren't necessary.

If I wasn't retired I would go into building sprayed concrete dome homes on pilings in coastal areas, especially FL. Demand should be high. Buyers can afford to pay a lot for these homes since they are replacing million $ homes on the water that were destroyed, damaged, or their owners want out.

...just food for thought. Fabulous time to be an architect or a contractor with imagination.
Link Posted: 9/27/2004 11:37:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/27/2004 11:37:38 PM EST by Boom_Stick]
Just currious, when's the last time FL got hit by 4 hurricanes in one year?
Link Posted: 9/27/2004 11:39:02 PM EST
People will move, atleast some of them. After a year or 2 without many storms new people will move there and want thier nice open homes again, they wont remember what happened unless its mentioned.

Might be a decent price drop for awhile but it will come back up.
Link Posted: 9/27/2004 11:46:43 PM EST
Well, now is the time to buy up some of the FL properties, because in another few years there will a lot of baby boomers retiring, and many will have to move from sunny Kali-fornia because of the its high cost of living to that of FL.
Link Posted: 9/27/2004 11:54:38 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/27/2004 11:57:16 PM EST by osprey21]

Originally Posted By Boom_Stick:
Just currious, when's the last time FL got hit by 4 hurricanes in one year?


As far as I know, never, but Florida has been hit by about 60 in the 20th century, so having three or four in one year is unusual and unlucky, but not unprecedented. Florida was hit by three in 1964, and God knows how many times three or more storms hit in the eons before weather records were kept or Florida was inhabited.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 12:44:43 AM EST
While I think you will see a small change for a brief time, I do not think you will see any major changes over the long haul.

The homes that need replacing will most likely be replaced with similar crap but built to new wind codes and maybe with better materials. People will not embrace dome houses in any great numbers any time soon, if ever...yes, they are good at some things, but most find them ugly...and that will make far more difference than the practical aspects...style will always win over substance with the masses. More important will be the insurance issues, but they, too, will be overcome, and just like people in California keep rebuilding on those hillsides that burn or slide into valleys, they will rebuild on the waterfront.

I saw a program on the History Channel once about the disasterous fires in Cakifornia where the Fire Chief in one city had been there for something like 20 years. He made an observation that after 5-7 years, the turnover was such that there was almost no one left who remembered the lessons from the horrendous fires that had occured in the past. That will happen here as well. As for population movement, we have long averaged a net gain of something like 2000 people a day moving in to Florida...yes, a day! A few less for a year or two won't be missed.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 12:49:44 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/28/2004 12:50:42 AM EST by 4get_No1]
We've never been hit like this before but there's always a 1st time too so....

Regarding property values and speaking as a "senior citizen" who's an ocean-front property owner, this is great. We don't plan to sell and it's getting too crowded for us anyway. As Taxman, Warlord, and Ikor point out, everything is temporary. After we croak our kids can sell the place if they want to and will probably make a fortune - that's cool.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 12:54:42 AM EST
I thing a decent amont of people who lost everything there will take thier money, leave saying never again. Property goes up for sale, sits 6months/year+ Then someone sees this nice property builds their house they have been wanting never thinking of what happened before or thinking it wont happen again. Might be encouraged by cheaper land since previous owner wants to get rid of it and get what they can.

New house is there built similar maybe a little stronger, maybe not. then 5/10/30 years it happens again.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 1:21:08 AM EST
I love that people that don't live in Florida, and have probably never been here other than to visit the mouse, think they know something about real estate here.

If you think that waterfront property prices are going to even SLIGHTLY dip you're insane. If you think that people are going to move out of the state in any noticeable numbers you're insane. We can't get you fuckers to quit coming in, let alone turn you back and get you to go back to wherever the hell you came from.

Nobody down here is going to rush out & build some goofy looking dome home either. If you think that's a dream industry waiting to explode think again. If you can afford to live on the water, you aren't going to want to look like you live in Jabba the Hutt's lair.

Nothing is going to change. People aren't leaving, and the building code isn't changing (not because of this anyway). Homes constructed according to the new code faired extremely well from all reports I'm hearing. There just aren't nearly as many of those because the new code has only been in effect for a year and a half or so.

Trust me, I wish it were so that there would be this mass exodus of invaders, but it's not going to happen. Even if it did they'd just be replaced by other yankees that fucked up their home states/towns and now want to come down here and do the same thing to us.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 1:51:14 AM EST

Originally Posted By norman74:
If you think that waterfront property prices are going to even SLIGHTLY dip you're insane...



I'm not so sure Norm. I think sales will slow down for a while myself and there will be a temporary price dip - perhaps for a few years even. Some people here are already mortgage poor and now they can't afford another huge "deductable" because of multpile insurance claims.



If you think that people are going to move out of the state in any noticeable numbers you're insane....

People aren't leaving, and the building code isn't changing (not because of this anyway)...



I think a few will hopefully leave (see above) but completely agree with this building code point you're making. I bet our insurance goes through the roof again too and that may also prompt some "investors" to back off.

As you can tell, I think the insurance companies are going to drive the prices for a while and actual value (what a current owner can keep as "profit") will drop some.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 1:56:46 AM EST
what about beach erosion with these storms. are there people whos property simply doesnt doesnt exist any more? do they now own "water lots"? and how is that covered with insurance or whatever? seems like that could be an actual economic loss for some people.

also im not sure what the scale was, but i think the gov may have a tough time justifying future repleneshment projects if they start to get wiped out every few years. that might lead to some changes.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 1:57:02 AM EST
Its time to stop sending federal money to people who continue to live there and have their property destroyed time aftetr time year after year.

Here in texas you will no longer get federal money (FEMA) if you have already received it for flood damage.
I think it should be similar in florida. CUT OFF THE TIT and make them accountable. If you want to live in that region then YOU take the risk not the rest of us tax payers. Pay it off once but thats it.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:00:58 AM EST
I make my living selling ocean front condos, 5 so far this year (would have been 6 but Frances stopped that sale!). I think there will be a lot of sales in 2005 as the "survivors" drop out and the new retirees continue to arrive. Just a guess.

I have been thru massive interest rate swings, poor seller markets, poor buyer markets. This is just one more aspect of an interesting business.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:04:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By 1776:
Its time to stop sending federal money to people who continue to live there and have their property destroyed time aftetr time year after year.

Here in texas you will no longer get federal money (FEMA) if you have already received it for flood damage.
I think it should be similar in florida. CUT OFF THE TIT and make them accountable. If you want to live in that region then YOU take the risk not the rest of us tax payers. Pay it off once but thats it.



Another brilliant know-nothing remark. Buy a house and refuse to buy insurance! Look up what FEMA support really provides to see just how smart your statement really is. It's a helping hand - NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR INSURANCE COVERAGE. It's not just for hurricanes or Florida either.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:09:20 AM EST


I also see a short burst of people leaving the sunshine state due to the hurricanes. But it won't last long. What I would watch out for is the insurance companies raising the risk limits on all policies in Florida. If not creating new "hurricane" clauses in policies all together. You know, like flood insurance. After all, they are in the business to make money. Not pay claim after claim.

Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:18:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By 1776:
Its time to stop sending federal money to people who continue to live there and have their property destroyed time aftetr time year after year.

Here in texas you will no longer get federal money (FEMA) if you have already received it for flood damage.
I think it should be similar in florida. CUT OFF THE TIT and make them accountable. If you want to live in that region then YOU take the risk not the rest of us tax payers. Pay it off once but thats it.



dude,,, listen these storms are big enuff that folks living up to 50 miles inland LOST their homes. not some rancher on a river in texas who refuses to leave every year!!!
i do agree that there has been some FEMA fraud,,ive seen it. i also belive that FEMA repaying folks that bought generators and Gas is wrong!! most power in this area was back on in an avg of 3-4 days. most folks RAN out,, and bought them for what,,,to run the TV,fridge, a fan maybe!!! get over it sheeple!

problem is like anyplace folks DO not take into consideration their surroundings! they expect to live in their lil eutopia and not be harmed!they do not have any sense of being perpared(ie charlie on the east side of the state) folks running around bitching that they lost 100$ worth of food they just bought the night before the cane!! WELL duh,,ya nimwit!

im glad fema show'd up. I got acheck from them, but i also lost my apt, both my new cars and a bunch of personal belongings,,and the check did nothing more than pay trasnfer fees to move(fine by me) meanwhile ya got folks that want fema to pay fer their lost food,,a bad ahid day,,, and folks crying that thier power was off for 4 hours!
imd one before i get on a meaningless rant!
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:19:31 AM EST

Originally Posted By Lckydevl:

I also see a short burst of people leaving the sunshine state due to the hurricanes. But it won't last long. What I would watch out for is the insurance companies raising the risk limits on all policies in Florida. If not creating new "hurricane" clauses in policies all together. You know, like flood insurance. After all, they are in the business to make money. Not pay claim after claim.



There are already hurricane clauses. The deductible is different between hurricans damage and other damage. For instance, my policy has a $500 deductible if something happens not hurricane related. But the deductible for anything hurricane related is 2% of the value of my home, which in my case would be $1700. Also, after hurricane Andrew, a special fund had been set up to handle this sort of thing, and it has been paid in by the insurance holders (meaning us). Most of the insurance companies spun off a seperate division of themselves for homeowers insurance (i.e. Allstate Insurance split into Allstate Indemnity for personal, cars, etc. and Allstate Floridian handles homeowners insurance).
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:24:17 AM EST

Originally Posted By 1776:
Its time to stop sending federal money to people who continue to live there and have their property destroyed time aftetr time year after year.

Here in texas you will no longer get federal money (FEMA) if you have already received it for flood damage.
I think it should be similar in florida. CUT OFF THE TIT and make them accountable. If you want to live in that region then YOU take the risk not the rest of us tax payers. Pay it off once but thats it.



And all the people living near the Mississippi River should move too because it floods every now and then. Maybe everyone in Kansas and Missouri should move due to the tornados. Or get everyone out of California because of earthquakes. No sense paying them to continue to live in those places. Where do you live? I guess there has never been any kind of natural disaster there, huh? Bet you would be first in the food line if there was.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:29:07 AM EST
Do any of you Florida residents know of one single person that is actually packing up and leaving and selling their house? I don't, and I have friends all over the state I've checked with. There was a poll somewhere that said that 25-30% of those Florida residents polled had considered leaving. Hell, I've been here all my life and I'VE considered leaving. Considering and doing are two entirely different things.

Trust me, nobody is going anywhere, and if you find out that waterfront property somewhere has dipped in price dramatically you be sure to let me know 'cause I'm buying.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:29:56 AM EST

Originally Posted By MC_Man:
Where do you live? I guess there has never been any kind of natural disaster there, huh?



sure there was, she was born.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:31:45 AM EST

Originally Posted By MC_Man:





There are already hurricane clauses. The deductible is different between hurricans damage and other damage. For instance, my policy has a $500 deductible if something happens not hurricane related. But the deductible for anything hurricane related is 2% of the value of my home, which in my case would be $1700. Also, after hurricane Andrew, a special fund had been set up to handle this sort of thing, and it has been paid in by the insurance holders (meaning us). Most of the insurance companies spun off a seperate division of themselves for homeowers insurance (i.e. Allstate Insurance split into Allstate Indemnity for personal, cars, etc. and Allstate Floridian handles homeowners insurance).

I have a question. Do the mortgage companies require you to get this hurricane insurance or did you get this on your own?



Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:39:05 AM EST

Originally Posted By Lckydevl:

Originally Posted By MC_Man:





There are already hurricane clauses. The deductible is different between hurricans damage and other damage. For instance, my policy has a $500 deductible if something happens not hurricane related. But the deductible for anything hurricane related is 2% of the value of my home, which in my case would be $1700. Also, after hurricane Andrew, a special fund had been set up to handle this sort of thing, and it has been paid in by the insurance holders (meaning us). Most of the insurance companies spun off a seperate division of themselves for homeowers insurance (i.e. Allstate Insurance split into Allstate Indemnity for personal, cars, etc. and Allstate Floridian handles homeowners insurance).

I have a question. Do the mortgage companies require you to get this hurricane insurance or did you get this on your own?






It's not really "hurricane insurance", it is a normal homeowners policy with the above-mentioned hurricane clauses included.
Andrew really screwed things up for everyone, especially the insurance companies. Several were put out of business. The rest were asked to stay by the state and were pretty much allowed to do what they want, to a limit. So the state set up it's own insurance company (Joint Underwriters something-or-other), the major companies refused to write new policies for awhile, and when they did, they said no homes within a certain distance from the Gulf ot the Atlantic, and if decided to move within the state, they would not insure your new home. This went on for a couple of years, but is mostly back to normal.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 2:44:49 AM EST
I'm pretty sure everyone will leave Florida and move here to Nebraska.
We only have 6 months of winter with blizzards and ice storms, then it's spring with tornados, then
sweltering summer then back to winter.
They will all enjoy looking at endless miles of open praire, with no mountains or oceans to spoil their view.
We all like it here, sort of...
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 3:47:16 AM EST

Originally Posted By turboman:
Surely real estate values will drastically decline. Especially on the water front.



THAT won't happen! There's too many people standing in line for a chance to buy water front Fla property.
The lemmings will never give up their march to the sea!
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:03:30 AM EST
Actually it's a good time to live there. What are the chances they keep getting so many hurricanes??

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:19:21 AM EST
It's not the real estate, it is the cost of rebuilding and too much reliance on government bailouts. Many counties are going to be broke for a long time. They will probably have to lay off most of their county employees. Also, there will be less demand for many goods and services because people will be spending all their money on rebuilding what they had. Natural disasters are not, I repeat NOT an economic boon. If they were, then people should be out damaging as much property as they possibly can so we can keep rebuilding it all the time.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:21:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By turboman:
In the long term I'm wondering what the effect will be of the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Surely real estate values will drastically decline...



Nope, not with the taxpayers/FEMA bailing everyone out. No real incentive to change. They will rebuild and get wiped out again in 10 or 20 years. Repeat as needed.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:27:07 AM EST

Originally Posted By MC_Man:

Originally Posted By 1776:
Its time to stop sending federal money to people who continue to live there and have their property destroyed time aftetr time year after year.

Here in texas you will no longer get federal money (FEMA) if you have already received it for flood damage.
I think it should be similar in florida. CUT OFF THE TIT and make them accountable. If you want to live in that region then YOU take the risk not the rest of us tax payers. Pay it off once but thats it.



And all the people living near the Mississippi River should move too because it floods every now and then. Maybe everyone in Kansas and Missouri should move due to the tornados. Or get everyone out of California because of earthquakes....



Ranked in order of anual property destruction:
1. Flooding
2. Hurracaines
3. Hail/Ice
4. Wild Fires
5. Tornadoes
6. Eathquakes

Yes, people should move out of the flood plains and hurricaine zones. The other natural disasters dont do enough damage to warrant moving.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:41:39 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/28/2004 4:42:29 AM EST by norman74]
You people crack me up. Armchair accountants, armchair realtors, armchair insurance adjusters, and armchair economists, most of which are from out of state. There has been virtually NO intelligent or correct information posted so far by someone out of state. Trust me when I say, a hurricane hitting my house has NOTHING to do with you, your finances, or anything else. If the entire state of Florida moved to Nebraska you would not see a change in your federal income tax rate AT ALL. Your quality of life is not effected one iota by where in the country I choose to plant my house.

You sound like all the DU dipshits you're always complaining about, talking out of your ass based on what you saw on the evening news.

If you think it's stupid to live in Florida, please pass this along to all of your yankee friends. Please also let them know that we don't want them here. We will make fun of you, we won't help you when your house blows down, the alligators will eat you if the mosquitos don't, the old people will constantly cause accidents that will delay your driving for hours, everyone speaks spanish, the beaches are eroded away and covered in toxic waste, we get 15 hurricanes a year and every single one strikes the entire state, and the rednecks control everything.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 4:51:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By norman74:
Please also let them know that we don't want them here. We will make fun of you, we won't help you when your house blows down, the alligators will eat you if the mosquitos don't, the old people will constantly cause accidents that will delay your driving for hours, everyone speaks spanish, the beaches are eroded away and covered in toxic waste, we get 15 hurricanes a year and every single one strikes the entire state, and the rednecks control everything.



You left out too stupid to work a punch card ballot...and the Haitians.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 5:04:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By AR15fan:

You left out too stupid to work a punch card ballot...



that's not the natives, that's the goddamn carpetbaggers.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 5:12:36 AM EST
Well, being a Floridian without power, waste deep in debris I can say this. The Natives here take it all in stride, just another day. As long as everyone is alive, we'll rebuild no big deal. As for the disalusioned Yankee's. Open all lanes of I-95 & I-75 heading north and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

After Andrew, they have, state wide, remapped the flood plane, modified all the building codes & standards. All new homes being built are required to meet those specs. Nothing can be done about the exsting homes until they need repairs etc.

Here's a few pics from my place yesterday:

Jeanne
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 5:47:31 AM EST

I love that people that don't live in Florida, and have probably never been here other than to visit the mouse, think they know something about real estate here.

If you think that waterfront property prices are going to even SLIGHTLY dip you're insane. If you think that people are going to move out of the state in any noticeable numbers you're insane. We can't get you fuckers to quit coming in, let alone turn you back and get you to go back to wherever the hell you came from.



+1 Well put!

Waterfront property down here only does one thing...............Escalate.
I bought a waterfront townhouse 2 years ago for $340,000. My neighbor sold the identical unit 6 months ago for $500,000. I'm putting mine up for sale this month and buying a large detached home on the water that I have been negotiating on. Guess what, hurricanes haven't affected the price of anything.

How many people posting in this thread actually live on Florida waterfront anyway?
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 5:58:47 AM EST

Originally Posted By turboman:
Surely real estate values will drastically decline. Especially on the water front.



Yeah? Come on down and try to buy some. My property has doubled (DOUBLED) in value in the length of time I have owned it. How long? 9 months.

Houses that sold for $100k just a few years ago are now listed for over $500k. It's CRAZY. The recent hurricanes have not changed a thing. People still want to live on the water.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 6:25:31 AM EST

There is a no frills house just around there corner that just sold last week here. It is new construction, originally sold for $170k. Only 1500 square feet. Resold by the owner for $231k.

The house has not even been built for a month, and it already appreciated in value!


Bigfeet
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 6:32:36 AM EST
Insurance rates will probably increase. Building code was done after Andrew. I have a new house, and it has steel straps tying the roof to the slab, a reinforced garage door, etc.

I really don't see people moving away in droves. Some will leave, sure, but others will move here. If you are not right on the coast, have a newly constructed builing, and don't have trees too close by, you will be fine in anything short of Camile.

People will adapt, they will buy generators, MREs, etc and deal with it.
Link Posted: 9/28/2004 7:11:27 AM EST

If you think it's stupid to live in Florida, please pass this along to all of your yankee friends.


ROTFLMAO................So true!!!
Pass this along to your Grandparents too! Besides your Grandfather is a severe road hazard when he drives the motorhome!


You left out too stupid to work a punch card ballot.......


OMG.......ROTF........TRUE!!!!
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