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Posted: 4/24/2013 5:33:33 AM EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:39:54 AM EDT
[#1]
Thought more people might be interested in this....
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:40:10 AM EDT
[#2]
Fuck bloomberg shit
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:41:27 AM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:
Fuck bloomberg shit


Doesn't matter where the chart is from, it's what it shows that's the issue.....
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:43:10 AM EDT
[#4]
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:43:25 AM EDT
[#5]
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm


Better? No, it's the same chart......
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:43:42 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Hot linking is for suckas!


Never really cared much for it....
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:44:27 AM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hot linking is for suckas!


Never really cared much for it....


Then don't whine when no one reads your link.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:44:30 AM EDT
[#8]
If you print it out and there's unintended lines on the page, I'll tell you what that means and how to fix it.

For an actual analysis of the meaning of the data, I rely on you fuckers.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:45:36 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
If you print it out and there's unintended lines on the page, I'll tell you what that means and how to fix it.

For an actual analysis of the meaning of the data, I rely on you fuckers.


What it means is that there is very little in the way of commercial international shipping activity going on. Meaning that nobody is producing anything and nobody is buying anything. That's the 5 second version.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:48:21 AM EDT
[#10]
Without googling it, what am I looking at?
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 5:53:43 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Without googling it, what am I looking at?


A measure of the health of the world economy. Basically what you are looking at is the cost of shipping goods on container ships. Shipping "space" is like any other commodity, there is a limited quantity and lead times are very long to add capacity- it takes 2-3 years to build a new dry container ship. The costs of shipping right now are just over break even operating costs of the ships- meaning there is a shitload of capacity just sitting around- people are quoting shipping costs that essentially just let them keep the boat afloat so to speak..... That means nobody is shipping anything, meaning nobody is making or buying anything.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:18:11 AM EDT
[#12]
But.....but....Bernanke says we avoided a crises, so did Obama.....your a liar!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:21:39 AM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
But.....but....Bernanke says we avoided a crises, so did Obama.....your a liar!


The chart don't lie!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:23:15 AM EDT
[#14]
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:25:57 AM EDT
[#15]
Obamacare will save us all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:27:28 AM EDT
[#16]
I'm too busy digging my bunker to respond.  Chart is bad news!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:29:19 AM EDT
[#17]
Dumper. Yep, the economy is in it.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:29:28 AM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
I'm too busy digging my bunker to respond.  Chart is bad news!


I think if more people looked at the five year chart and understood what it meant.....they'd be selling a hell of a lot more shovels......
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:29:58 AM EDT
[#19]
How dare you not talk about green shoots!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:38:48 AM EDT
[#20]
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.

Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:40:43 AM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.



If you go to the five year chart linked through Bloomberg you can see the cliff we went over......HUGE....It was over 12,000.....now it's 880 or so....
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:41:32 AM EDT
[#22]
The Baltic Dry Index is one of those odd measurements that acts as a pretty good measurement of economic activity.  The US analog would be UPS and Fedex's share prices.

One of the reasons the Baltic Dry Index gets a lot of attention is that it is an historical predeictor of world economic activity; it goes up substantially before other indices do.  That's what makes the chart interesting - dead flat and staying that way.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:42:38 AM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.



Me too.  ...Was it just five years ago?
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:44:27 AM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.





Source


Edit: Note that the absolute values are not that important for what is being discussed.  What matters is relative change.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:45:07 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
The Baltic Dry Index is one of those odd measurements that acts as a pretty good measurement of economic activity.  The US analog would be UPS and Fedex's share prices.

One of the reasons the Baltic Dry Index gets a lot of attention is that it is an historical predeictor of world economic activity; it goes up substantially before other indices do.  That's what makes the chart interesting - dead flat and staying that way.


You can tell what Christmas sales are going to be like in October!
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:49:30 AM EDT
[#26]
Mining looks pretty bad too. People don't need minerals if they aren't producing.

Europe is still barely teading water. But yet gold is falling. Somtimes you get mixed signals.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:52:58 AM EDT
[#27]
I'm sure that's just doing that because fuel prices are going down right?
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:53:40 AM EDT
[#28]



Quoted:



Quoted:

I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.







http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/bdi.png



Source





Edit: Note that the absolute values are not that important for what is being discussed.  What matters is relative change.
Interesting that the big drop coincides with Obummer getting in office.





 
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:56:24 AM EDT
[#29]



Quoted:


Mining looks pretty bad too. People don't need minerals if they aren't producing.



Europe is still barely treading water. But yet gold is falling. Sometimes you get mixed signals.


Is gold used in enough manufacturing that a manufacturing slowdown could cause a price drop?



 
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:56:40 AM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you print it out and there's unintended lines on the page, I'll tell you what that means and how to fix it.

For an actual analysis of the meaning of the data, I rely on you fuckers.


What it means is that there is very little in the way of commercial international shipping activity going on. Meaning that nobody is producing anything and nobody is buying anything. That's the 5 second version.


zerohedge has been alluding to this fact for weeks.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:56:48 AM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.



http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/bdi.png

Source


Edit: Note that the absolute values are not that important for what is being discussed.  What matters is relative change.
Interesting that the big drop coincides with Obummer getting in office.

 


Predates it slightly.  Remember the recession?
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:57:49 AM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm curious what the chart looked like prior to 5 years ago.



http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/bdi.png

Source


Edit: Note that the absolute values are not that important for what is being discussed.  What matters is relative change.
Interesting that the big drop coincides with Obummer getting in office.

 


Not really.  You may recall that there was a financial crash happening around the same time that had been building up for a few years before Obama even announced his candidacy?  I think I heard something about it on the news once or twice.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 6:59:22 AM EDT
[#33]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you print it out and there's unintended lines on the page, I'll tell you what that means and how to fix it.

For an actual analysis of the meaning of the data, I rely on you fuckers.


What it means is that there is very little in the way of commercial international shipping activity going on. Meaning that nobody is producing anything and nobody is buying anything. That's the 5 second version.


zerohedge has been alluding to this fact for weeks.


I became aware of it through Alt Market.....Good info. in any event. One thing I should point out about the dramatic drop off is that there was also a huge ship building boom in the mid 2000's, it resulted in a collapsed S. Korean economy sector when it tanked....some would say that over capacity is the real reason the index has not come back up to pre crash levels, again, it takes 2-3 years to build a dry container ship, difficult to forecast demand that far out....
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:01:22 AM EDT
[#34]
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:04:08 AM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.


If this is true, what's the reason behind the relatively flat shipping costs? The ship bubble that Will just mentioned?
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:12:31 AM EDT
[#36]
Quoted:
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.


I am not in commercial shipping, just an interested observer. Anything you could share would be much appreciated.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:14:58 AM EDT
[#37]
I read zerohedge...I can't even keep up with most of these charts and analysis



Shit's down, and it appears like it's going to get worse (at least in the short term) is an easy summation





Speed
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:18:11 AM EDT
[#38]
Quoted:
Quoted:
But.....but....Bernanke says we avoided a crises, so did Obama.....your a liar!


The chart don't lie!


I believe everything I read, the internet does not lie
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:22:36 AM EDT
[#39]



Quoted:


OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.

Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.

The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;

One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.

One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  

There is a waiting list for new ship builds.

Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.

Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.

The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.

The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.
Baltic Dry wouldn't cover that.





 
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:22:43 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Quoted:
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.


If this is true, what's the reason behind the relatively flat shipping costs? The ship bubble that Will just mentioned?


I cant answer your question, I wish I could, I would be a rich man.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:24:03 AM EDT
[#41]
Quoted:

Quoted:
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.
Baltic Dry wouldn't cover that.

 

RIF.  I quoted The Sunday Times, not BDI.

Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:27:52 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:
Fuck bloomberg shit


The Bloomberg Business Channel is one of the very few channels I can stand to watch. It's pretty informative.

Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:28:25 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Without googling it, what am I looking at?


A measure of the health of the world economy. Basically what you are looking at is the cost of shipping goods on container ships. Shipping "space" is like any other commodity, there is a limited quantity and lead times are very long to add capacity- it takes 2-3 years to build a new dry container ship. The costs of shipping right now are just over break even operating costs of the ships- meaning there is a shitload of capacity just sitting around- people are quoting shipping costs that essentially just let them keep the boat afloat so to speak..... That means nobody is shipping anything, meaning nobody is making or buying anything.


Interesting.  Thanks for the spelling that out.  I had no clue.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:30:27 AM EDT
[#44]
Quoted:
But.....but....Bernanke says we avoided a crises, so did Obama.....your a liar!


It only makes sense to deny how bad things are. Say we are truly screwed, spending will stop.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:31:03 AM EDT
[#45]
Shipping is no different then other buisnesses.  Some companies dont stretch themselves too thin and know to save money when its flowing strong.
3-5 years ago when day rates were anywhere from 20 to 50K a day, some people put that in the bank and others ordered lots of new ship builds thinking that by the time they were delivered the rates would still be that high.  Now the rates have bottomed out and companies are left with new ships that they paid a premium for.
Smart companies who banked their money now come on the scene and buy these new builds for 50 cents on the dollar and make out like a bandit.
Money from China comes onto the scene and buys 30 ships at a time for pennies on the dollar and now you have a profitable company.(this actually happened, a company was formed overnight)
LNG/LPG is big business right now with some chartering for 95K per day.
The offshore sector is big business right now.  Lots of money flowing in the offshore area, drilling, storage, windpower, etc.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:32:32 AM EDT
[#46]
Tagged for later study because I've heard of the Baltic Dry Index but have only a vague inkling of what it means.

Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:43:11 AM EDT
[#47]
Quoted:
OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.
Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.
The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;
One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.
One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  
There is a waiting list for new ship builds.
Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.
Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.
The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.
The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.


While shipping is growing, that's not what the Index measures - it's the price of shipping, which is a supply/demand relationship.  Projecting growth out to 2030 doesn't take yearly fluctuations into account.

The fact that the price has remained flat means that, as shipping tonnage increases, shipping assets are being placed into service at a corresponding rate.  Given the lag between order and delivery, that implies a steady, slow growth rate. Which, in practical (you and me) economic terms, means no growth.  What we want to see is the rates going up, because that would mean that the economy is moving faster than the pace of shipping capacity.  Yards are backordered because they don't see a justification in expanding more capacity.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:46:16 AM EDT
[#48]
I believe the Baltic Dry is too volatile and a shitty overall indicator to gauge world economic health.  There are too many moving parts and factors.  Oh, I am sure the ZeroHedge Boys have a wailing and nashing of teeth going on but meh.
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:49:07 AM EDT
[#49]



Quoted:



Quoted:




Quoted:

OP, are you in commercial shipping?  I am and I will warn you to not believe everything you read.

Shipping is growing.  Lloyds, along with some other experst did a shipping study and their data shows a solid growth up to 2030.  Thats as far out as they went, the study showed a growth of almost 50% by 2030 with China dominating the shipping industry.

The Sunday Times, a UK paper just ran a story showing;

One Japanese based container line had over 200% growth this year.

One tanker operator increased his wealth to over 13 billion this year, all owned by one man.  

There is a waiting list for new ship builds.

Several shipping companies and ship owners grew their wealth more than other billionaires, millioniares in other industries.

Ports around the world are expanding to accomodate the growth and more container storage.

The Singapore Shipping Trust forecasts growth for the maritime industry.

The industry has had some black eyes, some companies went belly up but there is growth, I am seeing it and feeling it.
Baltic Dry wouldn't cover that.



 


RIF.  I quoted The Sunday Times, not BDI.



This thread is a pity party for BDI. I was just explaining that your insightful information would not be reflected in the chart some of us are freaking out over.





 
Link Posted: 4/24/2013 7:52:26 AM EDT
[#50]
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