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Posted: 10/31/2004 4:25:53 AM EDT
Well no new map up yet... maybe its just toooooo scary! Being Halloween and all... mwuahahahahahahaha!
 Zogby is showing a tie, which means we had a good Saturday to bring it up from 1 down on a three day rolling average. A good weekend day would equate to getting a VERY good weekday. I'm guessing we are starting to see the Osama tape having some beneficial effects for us.
Iowa Political Futures   Tradesports  The current bid is above 55 for Bush futures on the Iowa market and look at the surge in Tradesports! Real Clear Politics Electoral Map  Kerry 190 Bush 232 GET YOUR MAGGOT-FACED PIMPLY ASSES TO THE POLLS AND VOTE! VOLUNTEER, WE HAVE TO SAVE THIS COUNTRY! |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 4:51:12 AM EDT
[#1]
Two more days, just two more days. I am convinced Bush is going to win but this shit's starting to take a toll. Zogby is a hack and I'm not sure I trust anything this guy put's out any more even if favorable to us. I would not be surprised if Monday he shows Kerry up by 3 to 5 in Ohio. Look at his numbers of Minnesota for the last week or so. Very inconsistent.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 4:55:05 AM EDT
[#2]
I think Daschle is dumped, if that is any condolence.
 (Thune in good lead after months of being in a dead heat)
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:14:53 AM EDT
[#3]
That is frikken awesome news, Brass. Hope it pans out that way tomorrow. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:28:32 AM EDT
[#4]
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE GOD LET THAT BE TRUE! Mike |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:30:23 AM EDT
[#5]
How come RCP shows Hawaii as being in Kerry's column? While it wouldn't surprise me, I'd been hearing that it was too close to call.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:35:56 AM EDT
[#6]
TAG
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:37:06 AM EDT
[#7]
Only one poll, the most recent here, shows Bush with a lead, 1%, and the others show double digit Kerry margins. Every state here has a poll history that you can click on. uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php Hawaii Polls Date Poll Source Spread Kerry Bush Nader Und M.O.E. Sample #C 2004-10-20 SMS Research B +1 45% 46% 0% 9% 4% 612 L 5 2004-09-11 ARG K +10 51% 41% 4% 4% 4% 600 L 0 2004-08-03 SMS Research K +7 48% 41% 0% 11% 4% 681 L 1 2000-11-07 2000 Election Result K +22 58% 36% 6% 0% 0% 367,951 L 0 |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:40:55 AM EDT
[#8]
If Daschle were to go down that would be fucking awesome. That would be a huge kick in the nuts for the DEM. Who do you think the Dems would put up as minority leader??? Kerry when he loses??
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:42:53 AM EDT
[#9]
I'm laughing as all the new national polls are coming out as ties... Fox, Washington Post, ARG, Zogby... bottom line, I don't think anybody wants to risk their reputation by showing anybody with a lead and calling it wrong.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:43:24 AM EDT
[#10]
He's updated the map.
ETA: oops my bad - Got the right one now. Kerry 283 Bush 246 |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 5:44:42 AM EDT
[#11]
Cabby, that's the October 30 map... check the properties
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:04:05 AM EDT
[#12]
When NJ goes Bush it'll all be over but the crying.
It can only happen if you get out and VOTE! |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:18:14 AM EDT
[#13]
Well the hack did what we knew he would, he used zogby instead of the Mason Dixon polls which were the most recent polls.
Kerry 283 Bush 246 |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:20:27 AM EDT
[#14]
Michigan and Ohio must go for Bush.
I'll see to Michigan, but you Buckeyes need to get off of your asses!
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:20:57 AM EDT
[#15]
This is interesting
I say it's Al Gore
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:22:19 AM EDT
[#16]
Is that including the "dead" indian voters? |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:25:17 AM EDT
[#17]
that's fine by me... Mason Dixon has a better track record, I'll go with them |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:26:08 AM EDT
[#18]
I think the guy is going to come out of the closet as a Bush supporter.
And NO WAY IN HELL is Kerry winning Florida, IA, NM, or NV - and I think Bush WILL take WI and NH. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:27:13 AM EDT
[#19]
A good day for an Op-ed piece from Kerryville:
Read all about it Here. Not only does it parallel many of my views of Bush (he ain't perfect, but I'm definitely supporting the man, warts and all: and who said we were all perfect?), it succinctly sums up Kerry: Spineless. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:29:35 AM EDT
[#20]
What the fuck?
So the little shit shows Bush leading in two Florida polls, and Kerry in one and he gives it to Kerry? He shows Bush leading in two New Mexico polls... one by 9 and he gives it to Kerry????  ETA... and he shows Bush leading in two polls in Nevada and tied in the other and he says its undecided?  Off the fucking deep end... move Florida, New Mexico and Nevada into Bush's column and its over, we win! |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:31:42 AM EDT
[#21]
I'm personally going to hand Florida to GWB. Kerry can kiss my Florida Cracker ass. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:39:11 AM EDT
[#22]
Well the ARG poll did come out after the Zogby poll.  This guy is a hack just like zogby.One thing of note, I was reading about his system upgrades and how many servers he is running and so forth. This guy has some cash tied up in what he is hosting and as far as I can tell has no sponsors on his site, so either A. he has some cash to burn B. Someone is bankrolling him. The fact that he has decided to unmask makes me think he is some one we already know?? Skinner?? Zogby?? |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:42:55 AM EDT
[#23]
I've said it, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada are our's... so is Ohio... game, set, match!
Get out and vote and prove me right people! |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:53:45 AM EDT
[#24]
I think you can add Iowa and Wisconcin as well and I would say a 75% chance on Minnesota. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 6:55:04 AM EDT
[#25]
Did my part on Thursday... +1 early vote GWB |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:00:22 AM EDT
[#26]
Even Fox news are disavowing their own poll today. It shows women supporting Bush and MEN supporting Kerry!
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:06:59 AM EDT
[#27]
You can not get a good polling sample on the weekend before... these things are being rushed and they are doing shoddy work.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:13:35 AM EDT
[#28]
Just checked the markets... they are holding with Bush around 55... so the polls don;t seem to be phasing investors. I also checked the betting lines being offered by bookies... All are in Bush's favor.
www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:21:33 AM EDT
[#29]
Has anyone ever heard of Election Projection??
He is predicting that Bush wins 356 to Kerry's 182 I can live with that. I think he might even be close give or take 15 EC votes. Election Projection |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:38:49 AM EDT
[#30]
I love these polls. I hope that they remain as inconclusive as they have been. Perhaps they will provide motivation for the Americans that still love our country to make every possible effort to get to the polls and vote.
BTW, those of you that are LEOs, lighten up on enforcing anti drug laws for just a bit. "Their" voters are much more likely to partake of that nonsense than "our" voters. That would be good for "us" next Tuesday. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 7:52:41 AM EDT
[#31]
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Posted: 10/31/2004 8:04:38 AM EDT
[#32]
He is a right winger... not that he is wrong, but he is not without bias. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 8:39:25 AM EDT
[#33]
Today:
 Anybody remember this?  Methinks this guy knew his shit! Read More: denbeste.nu/special/polltrends.shtml Edit: You will have to click the link to see the graph. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 9:14:21 AM EDT
[#34]
You bet I'm voting. I may not be in a swing state, but I haven't missed any opportunities to vote since I got back from Venezuela in 1996. Living outside the USA gives you a keen understanding of what a good thing we have here, and why we need to be involved in protecting the good that we have. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 9:53:40 AM EDT
[#35]
I’m just about ready for a straightjacket, myself.  To me (at the risk of showing my age), this is the most important presidential election since McGovern ran against Nixon in 1972. If Kerry wins, this country is truly hosed!  I had expected a swing toward Bush about now, and it isn’t happening!! The margins really do seem to be thin! And I continue to be deeply concerned about voter fraud in Ohio.  /whine mode off |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:20:09 AM EDT
[#36]
HM, that is a very interesting link. I think there is something to be said for his argument. Bottom line, I think you are seeing this tightening in polls because a tight race means a demand for more polls. You can bet that there will be a new poll for Washington Post and Fox tomorrow, likely Tipp as well. This is how pollsters make their money.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:22:25 AM EDT
[#37]
The Redskins are losing to the Pack.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:25:55 AM EDT
[#38]
Yeah, and I see more Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers than Bush/Cheney... The Red Sox managed to end the curse... all of these stupid "predictors" will be "proven" wrong at some point. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:26:33 AM EDT
[#39]
agreed. and this gives the news something to talk about. What would they do to fill the hours if the polls said, "President Bush lead nationally by 5%, and in every battle ground state but 2" |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:41:38 AM EDT
[#40]
The guy that does electoral-vote is a left winger. His map is basically useless. Anybody citing zogby, ARG, or democracy corps for polling numbers needs to have their pundit license revoked. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:53:53 AM EDT
[#41]
45 states.
That has been, and continues to be, my prediction. It will only happen if we all go vote. President Bush needs our support. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 10:59:04 AM EDT
[#42]
Jimminy Christmas!
Listening to FNC a few minutes ago I was almost convinced we were going to LOSE!  I vote tomorrow! My straightjacket size is XL, please! 
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Posted: 10/31/2004 12:41:34 PM EDT
[#43]
No kidding. Friday I vowed not to watch any more news untill Tuesday night; but I couldn't and every time I lose controll and flip back to Fox I get a sinking feeling. Don't get me wrong I WILL vote, but I'ts going to be a LOOONG 2 days listening to the asshats on TV. Mike |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 12:42:38 PM EDT
[#44]
ummmmmm the News gets viewership by keeping people on the edge of their seats... they are playing you.
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Posted: 10/31/2004 12:48:21 PM EDT
[#45]
If that's the reason, let me tell you: IT'S WORKING! CLEAR! ZAP! CLEAR......! |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 12:56:46 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 10/31/2004 1:17:08 PM EDT
[#47]
Two questions for the experts here:
What are the internal poll numbers that I have heard refered to on T.V. and on a couple of threads here on arfcom? Are they something not released to the public or am I just ignorant? And why is Fox News so negative about W winning. I read the electoral map threads everyday and start feeling optimistic, then I turn on Fox and it's Bush trails behind skerry. This shit is killing me & the Mrs....I early voted on wednesday, might just have to vote again. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 1:25:32 PM EDT
[#48]
Well as mentioned above, the news stations keep people tuned in by suspense... a neck and neck race keeps you on the edge of your seat. A 5 point lead is less interesting.
Internals can be two things. The internals of the public polls are the details that comprise it... how many people sampled, gender and party breakdown, income, are they likely to vote (have they voted before), where they live, age, the questions asked, favorable or unfavorable opinions and so on. A campaign's internals are the private polls we contract to tell us what is REALLY going on. They are closely held and definitely not for public consumption. They tend to be more accurate because the pollster knows to produce the truth... We will acept bad news as long as it is accurate. A pollster who can not accurately predict will not be hired again... So tell us the truth, whatever it is. These are the polls we use to plan our strategy, what issues are selling, which states to focus on, etc. |
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Posted: 10/31/2004 1:27:04 PM EDT
[#49]
So give it up you secretive fucker. we won't tell. 
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Posted: 10/31/2004 1:35:02 PM EDT
[#50]
Sorry guys, no can do. Would love to... but the rules are very strictly enforced. There is a lot of stuff I'm not cleared to know and I have been begging like a school girl for two days because I'm told there might be something big... You think its hard on you guys? I told my chairman the other day that its like being in a plexiglass box with the hottest redheads having an orgy just inches away... you can;t get to them and you can't even reach your cock... sheer torture!
Suffice it to say, I think it will be very difficult for Kerry to win... not impossible, but the odds are against him. I think he needs to win Florida, Ohio and PA to pull it off. |
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