Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
11/20/2019 5:07:11 PM
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Posted: 10/31/2004 3:25:53 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 3:27:20 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 3:51:12 AM EST
Two more days, just two more days. I am convinced Bush is going to win but this shit's starting to take a toll. Zogby is a hack and I'm not sure I trust anything this guy put's out any more even if favorable to us. I would not be surprised if Monday he shows Kerry up by 3 to 5 in Ohio. Look at his numbers of Minnesota for the last week or so. Very inconsistent.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 3:55:05 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:14:53 AM EST

Originally Posted By brasspile:
I think Daschle is dumped, if that is any condolence. (Thune in good lead after months of being in a dead heat)


That is frikken awesome news, Brass. Hope it pans out that way tomorrow.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:28:32 AM EST

Originally Posted By brasspile:
I think Daschle is dumped, if that is any condolence. hune



PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE GOD LET THAT BE TRUE!



Mike
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:30:23 AM EST
How come RCP shows Hawaii as being in Kerry's column? While it wouldn't surprise me, I'd been hearing that it was too close to call.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:35:56 AM EST
TAG
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:37:06 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 4:39:36 AM EST by nightstalker]

Originally Posted By 71-Hour_Achmed:
How come RCP shows Hawaii as being in Kerry's column? While it wouldn't surprise me, I'd been hearing that it was too close to call.



Only one poll, the most recent here, shows Bush with a lead, 1%, and the others show double digit Kerry margins. Every state here has a poll history that you can click on. uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php

Hawaii Polls

Date
Poll Source
Spread
Kerry
Bush
NaderUnd
M.O.E.
Sample
#C

2004-10-20
SMS Research
B +1
45%
46%
0%
9%
4%
612 L
5

2004-09-11
ARG
K +10
51%
41%
4%
4%
4%
600 L
0

2004-08-03
SMS Research
K +7
48%
41%
0%
11%
4%
681 L
1

2000-11-07
2000 Election Result
K +22
58%
36%
6%
0%
0%
367,9­51 L
0
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:40:55 AM EST
If Daschle were to go down that would be fucking awesome. That would be a huge kick in the nuts for the DEM. Who do you think the Dems would put up as minority leader??? Kerry when he loses??
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:42:53 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:43:24 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 5:35:24 AM EST by Cabby]
He's updated the map.



ETA: oops my bad - Got the right one now.

Kerry 283
Bush 246
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:44:42 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:04:05 AM EST
When NJ goes Bush it'll all be over but the crying.

It can only happen if you get out and VOTE!
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:18:14 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 5:18:38 AM EST by spm681]
Well the hack did what we knew he would, he used zogby instead of the Mason Dixon polls which were the most recent polls.

Kerry 283
Bush 246
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:20:27 AM EST
Michigan and Ohio must go for Bush.

I'll see to Michigan, but you Buckeyes need to get off of your asses!
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:20:57 AM EST
This is interesting


Tomorrow is the big day when the Votemaster comes out of the closet into broad daylight. If you are curious, be sure to check back tomorrow.




I say it's Al Gore
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:22:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By brasspile:
I think Daschle is dumped, if that is any condolence. (Thune in good lead after months of being in a dead heat)




Is that including the "dead" indian voters?
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:25:17 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:26:08 AM EST
I think the guy is going to come out of the closet as a Bush supporter.

And NO WAY IN HELL is Kerry winning Florida, IA, NM, or NV - and I think Bush WILL take WI and NH.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:27:13 AM EST
A good day for an Op-ed piece from Kerryville:

Read all about it Here.

Not only does it parallel many of my views of Bush (he ain't perfect, but I'm definitely supporting the man, warts and all: and who said we were all perfect?), it succinctly sums up Kerry: Spineless.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:29:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 5:31:43 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:31:42 AM EST

Originally Posted By Greywolf2112:
I think the guy is going to come out of the closet as a Bush supporter.

And NO WAY IN HELL is Kerry winning Florida, IA, NM, or NV - and I think Bush WILL take WI and NH.



I'm personally going to hand Florida to GWB. Kerry can kiss my Florida Cracker ass.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:39:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 5:51:55 AM EST by spm681]

He shows Bush leading in two New Mexico polls... one by 9 and he gives it to Kerry????


Well the ARG poll did come out after the Zogby poll. This guy is a hack just like zogby.

One thing of note, I was reading about his system upgrades and how many servers he is running and so forth. This guy has some cash tied up in what he is hosting and as far as I can tell has no sponsors on his site, so either

A. he has some cash to burn
B. Someone is bankrolling him.

The fact that he has decided to unmask makes me think he is some one we already know??

Skinner??
Zogby??
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:42:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:53:45 AM EST

I've said it, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada are our's... so is Ohio... game, set, match!



I think you can add Iowa and Wisconcin as well and I would say a 75% chance on Minnesota.

Link Posted: 10/31/2004 5:55:04 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I've said it, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada are our's... so is Ohio... game, set, match!

Get out and vote and prove me right people!



Did my part on Thursday...

+1 early vote

GWB
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:00:22 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:06:59 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:13:35 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:21:33 AM EST
Has anyone ever heard of Election Projection??

He is predicting that Bush wins 356 to Kerry's 182

I can live with that. I think he might even be close give or take 15 EC votes.

Election Projection
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:38:49 AM EST
I love these polls. I hope that they remain as inconclusive as they have been. Perhaps they will provide motivation for the Americans that still love our country to make every possible effort to get to the polls and vote.

BTW, those of you that are LEOs, lighten up on enforcing anti drug laws for just a bit. "Their" voters are much more likely to partake of that nonsense than "our" voters. That would be good for "us" next Tuesday.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:52:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Even Fox news are disavowing their own poll today. It shows women supporting Bush and MEN supporting Kerry!

that FoxNews poll is all fucked up.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 7:04:38 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 7:39:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 7:44:20 AM EST by HeavyMetal]
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 8:14:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I've said it, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada are our's... so is Ohio... game, set, match!

Get out and vote and prove me right people!



You bet I'm voting. I may not be in a swing state, but I haven't missed any opportunities to vote since I got back from Venezuela in 1996. Living outside the USA gives you a keen understanding of what a good thing we have here, and why we need to be involved in protecting the good that we have.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 8:53:40 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I'm laughing as all the new national polls are coming out as ties...


I’m just about ready for a straightjacket, myself.

To me (at the risk of showing my age), this is the most important presidential election since McGovern ran against Nixon in 1972. If Kerry wins, this country is truly hosed!

I had expected a swing toward Bush about now, and it isn’t happening!! The margins really do seem to be thin!

And I continue to be deeply concerned about voter fraud in Ohio.

/whine mode off
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:20:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:22:25 AM EST
The Redskins are losing to the Pack.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:25:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:26:33 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
HM, that is a very interesting link. I think there is something to be said for his argument. Bottom line, I think you are seeing this tightening in polls because a tight race means a demand for more polls. You can bet that there will be a new poll for Washington Post and Fox tomorrow, likely Tipp as well. This is how pollsters make their money.


agreed. and this gives the news something to talk about. What would they do to fill the hours if the polls said, "President Bush lead nationally by 5%, and in every battle ground state but 2"
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:41:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:

Originally Posted By spm681:
Has anyone ever heard of Election Projection??

He is predicting that Bush wins 356 to Kerry's 182

I can live with that. I think he might even be close give or take 15 EC votes.

Election Projection



He is a right winger... not that he is wrong, but he is not without bias.



The guy that does electoral-vote is a left winger. His map is basically useless.

Anybody citing zogby, ARG, or democracy corps for polling numbers needs to have their pundit license revoked.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:53:53 AM EST
45 states.


That has been, and continues to be, my prediction.


It will only happen if we all go vote.

President Bush needs our support.

Link Posted: 10/31/2004 9:59:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/31/2004 10:00:45 AM EST by Zaphod]
Jimminy Christmas!

Listening to FNC a few minutes ago I was almost convinced we were going to LOSE!

I vote tomorrow!


My straightjacket size is XL, please!
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 11:41:34 AM EST

Originally Posted By Zaphod:
Jimminy Christmas!

Listening to FNC a few minutes ago I was almost convinced we were going to LOSE! hock.gif

I vote tomorrow!


My straightjacket size is XL, please! hacko.gif


No kidding. Friday I vowed not to watch any more news untill Tuesday night; but I couldn't and every time I lose controll and flip back to Fox I get a sinking feeling. Don't get me wrong I WILL vote, but I'ts going to be a LOOONG 2 days listening to the asshats on TV.

Mike
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 11:42:38 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 11:48:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
ummmmmm the News gets viewership by keeping people on the edge of their seats... they are playing you.




If that's the reason, let me tell you: IT'S WORKING!

CLEAR!

­ZAP!

CLEAR......!
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 11:56:46 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
ummmmmm the News gets viewership by keeping people on the edge of their seats... they are playing you.



Link Posted: 10/31/2004 12:17:08 PM EST
Two questions for the experts here:

What are the internal poll numbers that I have heard refered to on T.V. and on a couple of threads here on arfcom? Are they something not released to the public or am I just ignorant?

And why is Fox News so negative about W winning. I read the electoral map threads everyday and start feeling optimistic, then I turn on Fox and it's Bush trails behind skerry.

This shit is killing me & the Mrs....I early voted on wednesday, might just have to vote again.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 12:25:32 PM EST
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 12:27:04 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Well as mentioned above, the news stations keep people tuned in by suspense... a neck and neck race keeps you on the edge of your seat. A 5 point lead is less interesting.

Internals can be two things. The internals of the public polls are the details that comprise it... how many people sampled, gender and party breakdown, income, are they likely to vote (have they voted before), where they live, age, the questions asked, favorable or unfavorable opinions and so on.

A campaign's internals are the private polls we contract to tell us what is REALLY going on. They are closely held and definitely not for public consumption. They tend to be more accurate because the pollster knows to produce the truth... We will acept bad news as long as it is accurate. A pollster who can not accurately predict will not be hired again... So tell us the truth, whatever it is. These are the polls we use to plan our strategy, what issues are selling, which states to focus on, etc.


So give it up you secretive fucker.
we won't tell.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 12:35:02 PM EST
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Top Top