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Posted: 10/30/2004 5:46:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 7:09:07 AM EST by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 5:52:41 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 5:54:23 AM EST by dport]
Seems like the larger sample sizes go to Bush. Zogby is the only one with a fairly large sample size that does not. If he is including Friday night numbers that could explain the Bush drop. I'd expect to see Bush maintaining a 1 point lead in Rasmussen this weekend because of the weekend polling.

ETA: Yep, Zogby is the only one with a sample size of over 1k that is showing a Kerry lead or a tie.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 5:53:47 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 5:53:59 AM EST by spm681]

So he grabs on to the one poll that Shows Kerry ahead in Florida... uh huh... Looking good boys, looking food!



That was the first thing that jumped out at me when I opened up EV this morning. He's grasping for straws I wonder about Michagan though. Add the FL 27 and you end up with 307 EC Votes. Not bad, but I think it is going to be higher, in the 320+ range.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:03:13 AM EST

Originally Posted By spm681:
That was the first thing that jumped out at me when I opened up EV this morning. He's grasping for straws I wonder about Michagan though. Add the FL 27 and you end up with 307 EC Votes. Not bad, but I think it is going to be higher, in the 320+ range.




+1 Also add Hawaii, they wouldn't send the VP that far if they didn't think they could get it.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:06:23 AM EST
Bush can win without Florida!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:17:51 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 6:18:46 AM EST by Greenhorn]
I predict that Bush will get 336 electoral votes. I think he will win the following states:

AK, HI, AZ, NM, NV, UT, TX, CO, ID, WY, MT, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, TN, KY, VA, WV, OH, IN, MI, PA, NJ, NH.

Kerry will get:

CA, OR, WA, MN, WI, IL, NY, DE, VT, DC, MD, CT, RI, MA, ME.

This is based on past history. Florida is looking very promising, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New Hamshire have been for Bush much of the time, etc.

This is a somewhat pessimistic list as far as I'm concerned.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:20:46 AM EST
I love that even this leftie website has Bush winning. I feel a lot more secure.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:21:39 AM EST
What's funny is he thinks Kerry is going to pull it out on his final map. I can't wait for next Wednesday.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:51:16 AM EST
Are these all post bin Laden tape polls or were some of them polled before the tape had come out?
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 6:54:13 AM EST
my GUESS is that this data comes BEFORE the Bin Laden tapes came out.

only a guess.......
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:08:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By TexasRooter:
What's funny is he thinks Kerry is going to pull it out on his final map. I can't wait for next Wednesday.



I don't think that it will be over by Wednesday.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:09:09 AM EST
Looks like my Rasmussen prediction was right. It has Bush at 47.9 and Kerry at 47.1. With leaners it has W at 48.8 and JK at 48.3. Its Friday night polling that did this. I trust Friday afternoons numbers more than I trust today's.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:11:36 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:13:02 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Friday nights numbers MIGHT have included the Bin Laden tape, but fewer Republicans are home Friday night and we usually have a steep drop over the weekend. Guys look at the futures market, this is the most timely snapshot of the electorate as people are putting their money where their beliefs are and there is no bias introduced by time of day or by how questions are phrased.



Wall Street also loved the Bin Laden tape, the upsurge was almost instintanious.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:14:09 AM EST
I doubt the Bin Laden tape had any affect on Friday's numbers. It was released at a time normal Americans stop paying attention to the news and start paying attention to the weekend. Especially this weekend with Halloween, parties, school dances, high school football, etc.

I'm afraid the next three days worth of polling data isn't going to be worth a shit.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:15:48 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:18:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
dport you are right in many ways... bottom line, Kerry's surge is dead and the Osama tape is going to break leaners to Bush... especially mothers.



Remember the polling data prior to the last election was wrong by about two to five points, depending on the source, mainly because of the late-breaking Bush DUI story and the polling over the weekend didn't pick it up. I think this story is going to have the opposite effect for Bush this year, and I don't expect the pollsters to pick it up this year either.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:18:27 AM EST
Ding Dong Kerry's Career is dead.......
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:19:46 AM EST
Thnaks for the info.

While out & about this morning, I saw two small houses up in the old section of town.

One homeowner had their Bush/Cheny sign out front, the other homeowner had pulled their Kerry/Edwards sign up and put it next to their trash can.

I hope it's a symbol of what's to come.

Scott
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:21:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By J_Smith:
Ding Dong Kerry's Career is dead.......



He'll still be a senator.

Any State that elects Ted Kennedy in perpetuity will keep Kerry drawing a .gov check, forever.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:23:34 AM EST
I'll be glad when Tuesday is over with
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:23:59 AM EST
DON'T GET COMPLACENT... GO OUT AND VOTE !!!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:24:36 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 7:29:16 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]
Hiram, what's your take on Ohio.
All the Ohio polls are looking bad, at first glance.
Are they rolling polls?

_________________________________________________________________________________


As an aside, you guys would not believe the amount of van rentals going out for the Republican party this week. I work for a rental company in Columbus, at the airport.

They are more organized than I have ever seen or heard mentioned. There are volunteers in town from nearly every state in the country. And the folks coming in are pretty good lookin, motivated folks. Which stands to reason, since they flew into the state on their own dime (most of them, I would suspect paid for themselves). Bush Cheney has the common sense to purchase fleet insurance to cover their rentals. (with the exception of the election day vans, which are driven by anyone and everyone) The Dem's have been purchasing complete coverage on every rental, for the past 6 months, to the tune of about $45/day (the insurance, not including the rental cost). I look at it like this... it just means the Dems can run less ads because they are wasting money on car rental insurance. And my bonuses are larger. Don't say Kerry never did anything for me.

Contrast that with Dem's, who are also renting vans, but are looking pretty damn rough when they come in. They look like they went down to the ghetto to pick up volunteers. Out of about 40 rented cars, 2 have been impounded with drug charges, so far. One was "given" to a friend, and recovered in Pennsylvania, full of pot. Both cars were recovered trashed, and looking as though the drivers were living out of the cars.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:28:26 AM EST

Originally Posted By StealthyBlagga:
DON'T GET COMPLACENT... GO OUT AND VOTE !!!



A big +1!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:37:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:39:48 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:40:18 AM EST
That makes my mouth hurt just reading it.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:42:24 AM EST
Don't want to be too negitive here, but one thing that can never be factored in poles is fraud.

Fraud is such a rampent issue (much more than reported)
All they have to do is get bus loads of people and drive them from polling station to station spending the entire day voting, and you just have to do this in the couple of battle ground states.
We get WI local TV, and IIRC there are NO real checks to insure someone is who they say they are or is voting where they should, or not voting twice.
The media has really dropped the ball on this story (big suprise).

Remember dead people vote Democrat over Republican by 10 to 1.

Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:43:40 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 7:45:53 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
For the time being, maybe these will help hold you until I can find something else


Zogby | 10/26-10/29 601 LV 4.1 46 45 - Bush +1
Mason-Dixon | 10/26-28 1500 LV 2.6 48 45 - Bush +3
LA Times | 10/22-10/26 585 LV 4.0 44 50 - Kerry +6
Survey USA| 10/23-10/25 831 LV 3.5 47 50 - Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25 600 LV 4.0 47 49 - Kerry +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 537 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4



The two most recent polls are Zogby and Mason Dixon (with perhaps the best state polling record) and they are showing Bush up in Ohio.



OK, it looks like you are looking at the same poll I looked at last night... RealClearPolitics' conglomeration of state polls.
Yesterday they had Kerry up by 2.5%
Today, Kerry up by .5%


It does worry me, because of fraud, as I've mentioned before.
I really find it hard to believe Bush isn't up by 5%, so when I see Kerry up by .5%, that is troubling.


Does the LA TImes poll seem outrageous?
If you take it out, the remaining polls look more promising.
Could they be calling all northern Ohio area codes for their poll?
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:44:05 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:46:24 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:47:29 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 7:51:38 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]

We have folks in place to cut way back on fraud... you'll never eliminate it, but we are being very aggressive on the issue this year.


Can you give some indication of how that works?
Hopefully it's not some Top Secret Op.

Say you see a busload of folks come in.
What do you do?

Can you ask for ID in Ohio?
Can you frag them?
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:48:58 AM EST

Originally Posted By dport:

Originally Posted By StealthyBlagga:
DON'T GET COMPLACENT... GO OUT AND VOTE !!!



A big +1!



If I have to fight my way to the polling booth shooting arab bombers as I go I will be there and I will be voting for Bush. He's not my favorite president of all time but he light years better than that fucking dishonerable, lieing, two faced, piece of shit that the Dems are running. I do not want my country in his hands.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:50:32 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 7:51:03 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]
I disagree. Even with his flaws, Bush is one of the better, perhaps great (requires re-eelction and completion of project) Presidents, because he has a clear vision for the future, and has undertaken a monumental project, by attempting to clean up the Middle East. If he/we succeed(s), the rewards will be reaped for generations.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:55:21 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 8:00:38 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]


Right Track-Wrong Track/Direction of Country

Poll Date ..................Right Dir. Wrong Dir. Spread
RCP Average 10/20 - 10/29 41.0% 53.0% -12.0%

Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 39% 56% -17%
FOX News (LV) 10/27 - 10/28 42% 46% -4%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 41% 53% -12%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 40% 56% -16%
Rasmussen 10/20 - 10/22 43% 54% -11%




This poll is what is holding Bush back, and I don't understand why it is the way it is.
Are people really that pessimistic?
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:57:06 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 7:59:10 AM EST
I had the impression you were in Northern Ohio.
That's why I asked.
That's what I get for assuming.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:00:17 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:03:27 AM EST
Best thing is, aparently, we don't need Florida!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:07:09 AM EST
Yeah, but it seems like we'll get Florida easier than Ohio.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:09:52 AM EST

Originally Posted By Leisure_Shoot:


Right Track-Wrong Track/Direction of Country

Poll Date ..................Right Dir. Wrong Dir. Spread
RCP Average 10/20 - 10/29 41.0% 53.0% -12.0%

Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 39% 56% -17%
FOX News (LV) 10/27 - 10/28 42% 46% -4%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 41% 53% -12%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 40% 56% -16%
Rasmussen 10/20 - 10/22 43% 54% -11%




This poll is what is holding Bush back, and I don't understand why it is the way it is.
Are people really that pessimistic?



When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 the "Right Direction" number was only 36 percent!!

GunLvr
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:13:08 AM EST


go bush
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:15:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:
When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 the "Right Direction" number was only 36 percent!!
GunLvr



That's a comfort.
Sort of.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:17:57 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:18:22 AM EST
Voter fraud + land sharks = hung election. It isn't JUST the electoral college vote. It is also how close the votes are in each state.

I hope and pray that the President kicks Kerry's ass...but in every single race that is within say...5K votes...you will see the lawyers contesting it.

During this period...Kerry will declare himself the winner and name his cabinet.

At that point, we have all just entered the Twilight Zone...dropped a tab of acid and put on our Doors album.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 8:22:30 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
Bush can win without Florida!




It dosen't matter though, Bush WILL take Florida!
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:01:51 AM EST
I pulled this from the horse race blog, its on polls

9. Let me give you some advice about polling. We will see many polls this weekend. Here is what I will be doing.

Polls to watch this weekend:
Gallup
Time
Pew
Strategic Vision
Quinnipiac
Mason-Dixon
Battleground

Polls to avoid this weekend:
Zogby
ICR
TIPP
Rasmussen
Surv­ey USA
Democracy Corps
ARG
Newsweek
Any poll you have never heard of

Note that if you are still inclined to believe Zogby, check out this line from a WaPo article, which reader David has pointed out to me:
[T]he Zogby poll published in the Rapid City Journal ... showed Republican Thune leading Daschle, 48.5 percent to 45.5 percent, just within the margin of error. At first, however, the poll had shown an even larger Thune lead, which seemed so improbable that the pollsters adjusted their voter turnout estimates and arrived at the narrower gap.
Any scientist who changes his method a posteriori should not be called a scientist. He should be called a hack.



The Horserace Blog

I think the polls as they stand now are what we should go with. I don't think Bin Laden will be picked up in the polls before Tuesday and using Hirams take on polls on weekends we should see the polls tied or Kerry ahead on Sunday and Monday.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:14:50 AM EST
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 10:43:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: 10/30/2004 10:53:32 AM EST by ASUsax]
I have only one thing to say...

W
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 2:53:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By Leisure_Shoot:


Right Track-Wrong Track/Direction of Country

Poll Date ..................Right Dir. Wrong Dir. Spread
RCP Average 10/20 - 10/29 41.0% 53.0% -12.0%

Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 39% 56% -17%
FOX News (LV) 10/27 - 10/28 42% 46% -4%
GW-Battleground 10/25 - 10/28 41% 53% -12%
Newsweek 10/21 - 10/22 40% 56% -16%
Rasmussen 10/20 - 10/22 43% 54% -11%




This poll is what is holding Bush back, and I don't understand why it is the way it is.
Are people really that pessimistic?



Right track wrong track doesn't mean crap.

All of the christian conservatives and people to the right of bush may think the country mis going in the wrong direction, but they sure as hell won't be voting for kerry.
Link Posted: 10/30/2004 3:00:43 PM EST

Originally Posted By Leisure_Shoot:
I disagree. Even with his flaws, Bush is one of the better, perhaps great (requires re-eelction and completion of project) Presidents, because he has a clear vision for the future, and has undertaken a monumental project, by attempting to clean up the Middle East. If he/we succeed(s), the rewards will be reaped for generations.



I agree. Poised as few have ever been to get things done.
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