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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:29:59 AM EDT
 Kerry 257 Bush 274 I can't see the map right now because it is loading so slow, not sure what has changed since yesterday.
Zogby has dropped from 3 point Bush lead to a 1 point Bush lead as Saturday fell off the three day rolling average. I expect you will see Rasmussen up 1 to 2 for Bush today.  Iowa Political Futures Market  We are showing about an overall 55/45 split for Bush which is still leading the national polls. There seem to be a lot of folks hedging their bets that it won't be a Bush victory greater than 52%. Kerry is seeing a surge in those who think he will win with less than 52%, but so are we. Will be interesting to see what happens today and whether this is a reaction to the NYT's lies. Realclearpolitics Electoral Map  Kerry 228 Bush 234 Florida by most accounts is going to go Bush, Ohio is course important... but if the rest of this map holds true Bush can win without it. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:35:33 AM EDT
[#1]
I can't wait until this is all over. It's really stressing me out!
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:37:11 AM EDT
[#2]
+1 |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:38:10 AM EDT
[#3]
Amen, brother! I'm getting seasick just trying to keep track of all this sh!t! Dear Lord, please help my heart! Allow W to win! Our country needs him! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:39:02 AM EDT
[#4]
+1,000,000,000  If I get in one more argument/discusion with a liberal I am going to snap 
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:40:04 AM EDT
[#5]
+2 |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:41:08 AM EDT
[#6]
-1 Not stressed in the least. Bush will take this one. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:43:03 AM EDT
[#7]
Yes, its getting to me as well... and I do this for a living. The good news is there really can't be anything more to throw at the president and there has been a pretty violent backlash from the media over how the NYT's story was handled. Can't wait to get to my office and see that stack of newspapers on my desk and whether they are lambasting it or not.
Take heart in this, I saw Frank Luntz being interviewed last night and he felt because Bush was doing as strongly as he is in Gore states that Kerry might have to pull a hat trick of Florida, Ohio and Penn to win... that is going to be very difficult to pull all three. We just need to make sure we get all Republicans and Bush supporters to the polls and fight fraud wherever we see it. Take Tuesday off from work and vlunteer for the party! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:46:10 AM EDT
[#8]
Rasmussen: Late deciding voters breaking for Bush
See details here (link) Add this to the equation: In early voting 51 percent say they went for Bush, 47 percent for Kerry. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:53:36 AM EDT
[#9]
From www.electoral-vote.com:
The Los Angeles Times has a story today that explains why this election is so much more emotionally charged than previous ones. It is not about economics, but part of a cultural war. A new LA Times poll shows Bush doing well among lower and middle income whites, whereas Kerry leads among whites earning more than $100,000 a year despite his promise to roll back the Bush tax cuts for people making more than $200,000 a year. As president, Bush has enacted big tax cuts for the rich but the rich are voting for Kerry. What's up here? The same poll shows that 2/3 of the people who attend a house of worship at least once a week are voting for Bush, whereas 60% of those who attend religious services less than once a week are voting for Kerry, in part because these voters recoil at Bush's constant use of religious imagery. Lower income whites like Bush's proposal to ban gay marriage but only a quarter believe his policies have been good for the economy. In contrast, affluent whites who have benefitted the most from the Bush tax cuts believe Bush's policies have hurt the economy. In short, far more than in previous years, economic policy is taking a back seat to cultural issues. The real divide seems to be between deeply religious lower income, lower education, voters living in small towns and rural areas who have conservative values on abortion and gay marriage versus higher income, higher education, secular, urban voters who have progressive views on cultural issues. Maybe James Carville was wrong: It's NOT the economy, stupid. With this background and the fact that eight of the nine Supreme Court justices are past the traditional retirement age of 65 and four of them have been treated for cancer, it is likely that the choice of who the next president will nominate to the Court will weigh increasingly heavily on the minds of many voters as we approach election day. For more on this issue, see this story also, in the LA Times. Are they trying to say that people who live in rural areas are ignorant back-woods hicks who really aren't bright and because they don't know better, they are voting for Bush? Most of the Kerry supporters I know are unable to tie their own shoe laces, let alone carry on deep, meaningful discussion about international affairs or tax policy. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:58:52 AM EDT
[#10]
WOOP! WOOP! My liberal bias detector just pegged. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 4:58:54 AM EDT
[#11]
The "superior intellect" of Kerry is a myth. According to both candidates military records Bush IQ is 5 - 8 points higher than Kerry. Add to that the fact that Bush got degrees from Yale and Harvard while Kerry settled for Yale and Boston College.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:01:59 AM EDT
[#12]
Of course. You should try hanging out around a big university sometime and hear the disdain with which they speak of Bush supporters (I work at Ohio State). |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:03:16 AM EDT
[#13]
Hell, I live 4 miles from Virginia Tech's campus |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:13:13 AM EDT
[#14]
i really cannot wait for this to be over
bush will win |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:16:25 AM EDT
[#15]
+ 1 .... uh or -2 ? I agree! 
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:17:17 AM EDT
[#16]
So what happend to the Republicans polling poor over the weekend and the great numbers that Bush was supposed to have today?
If Zogby's 3 day average went from +3 two days ago, +3 yesterday, to +1 today, doesn't that mean Bush's numbers went down big time instead of going up like you had said? |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:19:24 AM EDT
[#17]
Youre telling me, I cant friggin sleep. Im glad so many of you other guys are confident that Bush will win. I guess im a pessimist. I do think he win, win but it may be a squeker. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:21:47 AM EDT
[#18]
Zogby = Democrat cheerleader........ ignore Zogby The Rasmussen 3 day tracking Poll had a corrupt sample on Saturday which put Kerry up by 2 on Monday (first time in months). Yesterday the Ras poll had Bush and Kerry even at 48 because the rogue sample is being weighted by the normal data of Sun and Mon. Expect Bush by +2 today as the rogue Sat sample rolls off. The good news is other Polls like Quinnipiac are showing an erosion of Kerrys base. The Brand New Quinnipiac Poll in New Jersey has it Bush 46% - Kerry 46% - Nader 2%. Very, very, bad news for Kerry. So much for Charlie Cook and Chris Matthews statements saying Kerry has the momentum. For the record, Quinnipiac is one of the most trusted polling groups for NY, NJ, CT, and FL. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:22:21 AM EDT
[#19]
Kerry for used car salesman Bush for President |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:23:30 AM EDT
[#20]
Liberal = bigot in total delusional denial
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:23:47 AM EDT
[#21]
anyone ever pondered the amount of $$$ being spent to predict what we'll all know in less than a week (and some of us already know it!)?
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:26:19 AM EDT
[#22]
I'm just very worried about voter fraud. The demonrats will stop at nothing to win this election.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:29:37 AM EDT
[#23]
Well, I'm moving to Research Triangle Park in NC, which is anchored by THREE colleges. Not only am I going to heold THEM in contempt for their contempt of ME, I'm going to hold them in contempt for being such a pu$$y-whipped bunch of civilian "I teach because I can't do" BS artists. You never, EVER, want to turn on the arrogance of a Service Academy graduate. ANY Service Academy! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:29:38 AM EDT
[#24]
Wisconsin is leaning towards Kerry today. (we'll see)
The map doesn't show the recent Qunnipiac Poll that has a TIE in New Jersey. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:32:27 AM EDT
[#25]
Be wary. The democrats will be cheating major big time this November. They will not pull any punches. They see cheating as a valuable way to win when the numbers are this close. It's the same reason they are pulling up all the Bush/Cheney signs all over the nation.
JAH |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:38:20 AM EDT
[#26]
HR,
Is there any indication of a weakening in the GOP leadership to show the "bomb"? At what point do we tell the truth and nuc the bastard? This race SEEMS to be way too close for me. I'd really like my president to be a few more points ahead. The problem with a close race is that the ABA boyz are going to be filing a flurry of briefs, sueing the shit out of everyone while Monsieur Kerry screams that he "won" and announces his fucking cabinet!
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:40:21 AM EDT
[#27]
+1. I wish it was over. Romans 13:1 and Daniel 2:21, I know, but I am still worried. And buying my first AR is a little out of my budget right now.... |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:41:55 AM EDT
[#28]
Ohio will go to Bush. My magic 8 Ball tells me so. And it's never lied to me before.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:45:57 AM EDT
[#29]
"The Map" is run by a Democrat shill ... Use it for geography reference only....Take no Stock of It! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:49:33 AM EDT
[#30]
Gents, make your own "electoral maps".
Here's an Interactive Map Here's The Latest BattleGround State Polls |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:52:18 AM EDT
[#31]
Actually....it's starting to wear on me also. Kerry is coming on stronger than I expected. SO GET OUT AND VOTE! 45 States!!!!!!!!! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:54:07 AM EDT
[#32]
So whats the deal with the "rouge sample"? How'd it get in? I dont think i fully understand.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 5:55:07 AM EDT
[#33]
LW, last time I spoke to anybody (yesterday) I was told no decision has been made yet. The way I look at it is Thursday is the very last day I would think about releasing anything. You could push Friday, but that is really REALLY pushing it.
Swire, in answer to your question, Ren answered it perfectly. Today is Wednesday, I told everybpdy on Monday that I would look at this afternoon's Rasmussen numbers and have an idea of the trend. To go from two down to a tie means we had a very good polling day Monday. If yesterday was as good we could easily be two up today. I'll say it again, I don't want to hear bellyaching from anybody that isn't out dowing literature drops in their neighborhoods, who aren't volunteering for the county Republican operations to get out the vote, who aren't offering to drive shut-in Republicans to the polls, who aren't donating what they can... We will win for this reason and this reason only... we have a better ground game. We rely upon fired up volunteers. The Dems rely upon hired firms to handle their GOTV activities and registrations and such. Paid workers will never be as motivated as volunteers. So if you are scared, get off your butt and get involved! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:00:54 AM EDT
[#34]
And give more to the Swiftb Boat Vets. This weekend is going to be good.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:01:01 AM EDT
[#35]
Well, it was reported yesterday that on Saturday Rassmussen had included the question, "Do you support a return to the draft," in their poll, which turns their poll into a push poll. It skewed the raw data to Kerry. see below....By Monday the data had already moved back strongly to Bush. Look for that trend to continue and move Bush from the current 48-48 tie (3-day tracking poll) to at least +2 today. Rasmussen posts updates at noon Eastern so you can see if my prediction is on track. Saturday raw data Bush 43.7 Kerry 48.1 Sun Bush 48.3 Kerry 47.8 Mond Bush 51.4 Kerry 47.5 |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:07:32 AM EDT
[#36]
Technically not a push poll... a push poll implys the question was asked with the intent of introducing bias against a candidate and to force the poll into a desired direction. I think Scott was probably trying to gauge how much of an issue it was for voters and upon seeing how it effected the numbers he quickly dropped the question as any responsible pollster would.
What Scott SHOULD have done was a control sample with that question asked to gauge effect, not use it in his normal sample... especially when people are following the polls so closely and one can impact another as it does form a sense of security or insecurity for your candidate. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:14:04 AM EDT
[#37]
Ok thanks guys, a little clearer now. I had planned on checking back at rasmussen at 1200 I left the webpage open to refresh at that time.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:18:49 AM EDT
[#38]
A quick average of the Bush data (43.7+48.3+51.4) / 3 = 47.8 and Kerry data (48.1+47.8+47.5) = 47.8 shows the basis for Tuesdays 48 - 48 tie if you roll off Saturday raw data and use a conservative number like Sun B48.3 K47.8 Today's 3 day tracking number can be predicted like this: Bush (48.3+51.4+48.3) / 3 = 49.3 Kerry (47.8+47.5+47.8) / 3 = 47.7 But I expect a better number today for Bush. That is why I predict as I do. Cross your fingers! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:45:59 AM EDT
[#39]
6 more days...then bliss
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:46:48 AM EDT
[#40]
Quinnipiac Poll (link) |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 6:51:09 AM EDT
[#41]
Where have you been Hielo? I haven't seen you around for a long time. I was beginning to think you were lost in your bathroom! |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 7:36:39 AM EDT
[#42]
Me too. Good to have you back. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:03:47 AM EDT
[#43]
If it doesn't get released. You guys are going to have to enlighten us when this is all over. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:11:12 AM EDT
[#44]
Sorry guys, its not my call whether to release anything or not. I am nothing if not discreet.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:12:57 AM EDT
[#45]
Not even when this is all over? |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:14:53 AM EDT
[#46]
well the new rasmussen show bush now at 48.8% and kerry at 47%
also shows a 4 point lead in OH. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:16:38 AM EDT
[#47]
Keeping way too busy. In fact, I haven't gotten to see my bathroom for the past 2 1/2 weeks. I was going through withdrawl. |
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:19:03 AM EDT
[#48]
Haven't seen an add from W or sKerry til last week, now both are pushing adds over in the Caliban.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:20:16 AM EDT
[#49]
Just looking at Rasmussen's numbers it looks like Sunday was a really bad day for W. Looks like he held a lead even with Saturday's numbers, but once Sunday came along there was almost a two and a half point swing in one day(W -1.2, JK +1.2). I think tomorrow's numbers will be the most accurate having three days of weekday polling.
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Posted: 10/27/2004 8:27:06 AM EDT
[#50]
who has a more updated poll for WI? Rasmussen shows sept as the latest.
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