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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:27:35 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:31:01 AM EDT
[#2]
Interesting conclusion, especially considering their accuracy thus far. But it is predicated on ALL the swing States going to Romney. I can see even a majority of swing States, I'm not so sure all of them will.
Link to play your own electoral map games ETA: Best I can make it work out on how I think the swing states will slide, is Obama 274 / Romney 264. |
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:31:03 AM EDT
[#3]
Hopefully they will continue batting a thousand.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:33:04 AM EDT
[#4]
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:34:25 AM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. I would prefer he lose both. 
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:35:43 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.  That would be great.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:39:42 AM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be great.Could you even being to imagine the meltdown 
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:42:52 AM EDT
[#8]
Even though I am not a big Romney fan, it would be sweet if this happens. So much liberal schadenfraude.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:43:02 AM EDT
[#9]
This is the best political news I have heard in a LONG time.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:43:36 AM EDT
[#10]
I don't trust it
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:48:06 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
I don't trust it Trust, but verify.... |
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:59:46 AM EDT
[#12]
If Obama wins America loses
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:05:40 PM EDT
[#13]
This looks like outstanding news:
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/ |
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:06:05 PM EDT
[#14]
I hope to God this is right. 4 years of a lame duck Obama and you won't recognize this country.
Especially with the ages of 2 of the conservative SCOTUS justices.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:07:08 PM EDT
[#15]
You know how I see them writing this stuff? "Hey ed flip the coin heads obama tails romney!"
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:11:26 PM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be great.Could you even being to imagine the meltdown You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest? |
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:12:43 PM EDT
[#17]
Start packing you bags asshole, January will be here before you know it.
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:14:51 PM EDT
[#18]
A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
Kenneth Bickers got his BA from TCU in 1981 - so I am guessing that his model didn't "foretell" every election since 1980 - or it would be a much better known model and professor. I am guessing a more accurate description is that the model was developed more recently using historical data to test it (the benefit of hindsight) and that the model predicts a win for Romney Those tend to be tricky business - for example, while 6 out of 9 models in the 2008 election correctly predicted the winner; most of them missed the electoral count by a wide margin - and when you are talking states with 18, 20 electoral votes, that can make a difference. |
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Posted: 8/23/2012 12:20:36 PM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be great.Could you even being to imagine the meltdown The butt hurt would be beyond anything ever witnessed by mankind. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:01:50 AM EDT
[#20]
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university). As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000). The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data.
The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney). I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story. This story goes into a lot more specific detail. Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:03:34 AM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university). As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000). The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data. The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney). I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story. This story goes into a lot more specific detail. Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call. I wonder if the model takes vote fraud into account. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:07:09 AM EDT
[#22]
Bullshit.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:08:38 AM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
This looks like outstanding news: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/ I live in rural downstate, so my vantage point hardly matters, but I see a ton of signs in my are that simply say "sign's up to defeat obama" |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:11:36 AM EDT
[#24]
Dupe
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:14:23 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. I would prefer he lose both. I'd rather they not feel motivated. A total crushing defeat will slow them down a lot more than any "lesser" loss. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:17:49 AM EDT
[#26]
Quoted: i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. Not me. Do we really want to go through the crap they were pulling during Bush? And, an enraged liberal group is a group that will turn out in droves in '14 and '16. Nick |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:20:28 AM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university). As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000). The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data. The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney). I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story. This story goes into a lot more specific detail. Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call. I wonder if the model takes vote fraud into account. Well, if it correctly predicted 2000, 2004, and 2008 then I would say it must account for it somehow, though it doesn't appear to have any direct relation to vote fraud. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:20:47 AM EDT
[#28]
This only happens if you assholes go and vote!
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:22:12 AM EDT
[#29]
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. I would prefer he lose both. I hope he loses huge to show the liberals that they are not the majority. They are just noisier. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:31:01 AM EDT
[#30]
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:33:32 AM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. I'd buy that for a dollar!
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:37:28 AM EDT
[#32]
if the electoral college was no more, BHO would lose big.
Many of the independants and republicans here behind the Iron Curtain of Democratica would be more inclined to vote if NY,NJ, CA, IL ,CT,MA etc. werent all in the win column before the friggin election. It effects people alot when they think their vote means nothing. Hurts local elections too. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:40:02 AM EDT
[#33]
Quoted:
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok. What's so odd about that? Feed it the data up to the same point in the race for every prior election, produce a result. If it picks the winner in the other races, stands to reason it might do ok with the present election. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:42:18 AM EDT
[#34]
Quoted: Quoted: Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok. What's so odd about that? Feed it the data up to the same point in the race for every prior election, produce a result. If it picks the winner in the other races, stands to reason it might do ok with the present election. The metrics used to estimate winners have been shifting over recent elections though, haven't they? Especially here in 2012 where people directly hurt by Obama's policies can still be convinced it's Bushes fault.  |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 5:45:57 AM EDT
[#35]
Let's hope.
I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary... |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:00:41 AM EDT
[#36]
Quoted:
Let's hope. I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary... If you think Matthews had a meltdown over the Obama debate performance; can you imagine what he would look like if Romney picks up 330 EV? |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:04:02 AM EDT
[#37]
Quoted: Quoted: Let's hope. I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary... If you think Matthews had a meltdown over the Obama debate performance; can you imagine what he would look like if Romney picks up 330 EV? Might actually get to see a real exploding head. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:06:21 AM EDT
[#38]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be great.Could you even being to imagine the meltdown You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest? This. Who here thinks that our culturally diverse urban centers will take kindly to the explanation of the electoral college if the first black democrat president, The Giver of Gifts, is replaced in that situation? Who here thinks the media will actually try to offer the explanation, as opposed to doing their best at stirring the pot? The butthurt would be quickly forgotten when the cities start to burn.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:08:43 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted: This looks like outstanding news: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/ This would be slapping Obama in the face with a wet noodle |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:11:31 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok. That's the most important part of predictive analysis. Anyone can say "my model predicts the future!" The key is building a model, then putting in historical data, and seeing if the results=reality. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:14:42 AM EDT
[#41]
Please baby Jesus.
Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:16:24 AM EDT
[#42]
I wouldn't advice reading the comments in that article if you value your sanity.
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:16:58 AM EDT
[#43]
*fingers crossed*
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:19:55 AM EDT
[#44]
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be fuckng hilarious. 
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:20:50 AM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
This looks like outstanding news: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/ I want to be watching msdnc on election night if he loses Illinois, it would be fucking awesome to watch the news guy Maddow....have a stroke
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:22:07 AM EDT
[#46]
Official obama reelection portrait:
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:27:09 AM EDT
[#47]
Quoted: i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. While that would be hilarious, I'd rather Obama suffer a crushing electoral and popular defeat. He needs to really feel the collective boot of America on his ass, and other politicians need to see it too. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 6:38:49 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years. That would be great.Could you even being to imagine the meltdown You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest? This. Who here thinks that our culturally diverse urban centers will take kindly to the explanation of the electoral college if the first black democrat president, The Giver of Gifts, is replaced in that situation? Who here thinks the media will actually try to offer the explanation, as opposed to doing their best at stirring the pot? The butthurt would be quickly forgotten when the cities start to burn. Even if the media tried to explain there would be civil unrest. While ACORN is gone, the operatives didn't evaporate or move on to productive labor. They are still in the cities and they are still capable of enflaming the population. An electoral college win by WMR which occurred in the face of a popular vote loss would be just the spark they would need to get people out in the streets. One other thing to think about: If civilian disarmament ("gun control") legislation made it to the President's desk, he would sign it. Why? Because to get passed it would have to be supported by most people and as a result be supported by majorities in both parties. That's very unlikely. Something dreadful would have to happen to induce most people and a majority of Senators and Representatives in both parties to support "gun control". Something dreadful like two or three years of widespread civil unrest. 
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Posted: 10/8/2012 7:53:59 AM EDT
[#49]
Quoted:
Dupe You're calling "DUPE" on a thread posted in August and bumped today? lol. |
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Posted: 10/8/2012 7:57:20 AM EDT
[#50]
Please lord be true.
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