Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
BCM
Member Login

Site Notices
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:17:23 AM EDT

Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model that's correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 shows big WIN for Romney

   Forecast predicts loss for Obama with 218 votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney
   University of Colorado model concludes all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida
   Contrasts latest figures which predicts 282.6 votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney
   New poll shows slightly more Americans are expecting Obama to win in November
   Obama enlists the help of former President Bill Clinton in new TV ad blitz on the economy


A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2192464/Bad-news-Obama-Electoral-College-model-correctly-predicted-presidential-elections-1980-opts-ROMNEY.html
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:27:35 AM EDT

 
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:31:01 AM EDT
Interesting conclusion, especially considering their accuracy thus far. But it is predicated on ALL the swing States going to Romney. I can see even a majority of swing States, I'm not so sure all of them will.

Link to play your own electoral map games

ETA: Best I can make it work out on how I think the swing states will slide, is Obama 274 / Romney 264.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:31:03 AM EDT
Hopefully they will continue batting a thousand.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:33:04 AM EDT
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:34:25 AM EDT
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


I would prefer he lose both.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:35:43 AM EDT
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be great.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:39:42 AM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be great.


Could you even being to imagine the meltdown
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:42:52 AM EDT
Even though I am not a big Romney fan, it would be sweet if this happens. So much liberal schadenfraude.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:43:02 AM EDT
This is the best political news I have heard in a LONG time.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:43:36 AM EDT
I don't trust it




 
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:48:06 AM EDT
Quoted:
I don't trust it

 


Trust, but verify....
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 11:59:46 AM EDT
If Obama wins America loses
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:05:40 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:06:05 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:07:08 PM EDT
You know how I see them writing this stuff? "Hey ed flip the coin heads obama tails romney!"
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:11:26 PM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be great.


Could you even being to imagine the meltdown


You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest?
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:12:43 PM EDT
Start packing you bags asshole, January will be here before you know it.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:14:51 PM EDT
A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.


Kenneth Bickers got his BA from TCU in 1981 - so I am guessing that his model didn't "foretell" every election since 1980 - or it would be a much better known model and professor.  I am guessing a more accurate description is that the model was developed more recently using historical data  to test it (the benefit of hindsight) and that the model predicts a win for Romney

Those tend to be tricky business - for example, while 6 out of 9 models in the 2008 election correctly predicted the winner; most of them missed the electoral count by a wide margin - and when you are talking states with 18, 20 electoral votes, that can make a difference.
Link Posted: 8/23/2012 12:20:36 PM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be great.


Could you even being to imagine the meltdown


The butt hurt would be beyond anything ever witnessed by mankind.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:01:50 AM EDT
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university).  As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000).  The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data.

The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney).  I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story.  This story goes into a lot more specific detail.  Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:03:34 AM EDT
Quoted:
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university).  As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000).  The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data.

The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney).  I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story.  This story goes into a lot more specific detail.  Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call.


I wonder if the model takes vote fraud into account.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:07:09 AM EDT
Bullshit.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:08:38 AM EDT


I live in rural downstate, so my vantage point hardly matters, but I see a ton of signs in my are that simply say "sign's up to defeat obama"

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:11:36 AM EDT
Dupe
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:14:23 AM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


I would prefer he lose both.


I'd rather they not feel motivated.

A total crushing defeat will slow them down a lot more than any "lesser" loss.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:17:49 AM EDT


Quoted:

i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


Not me.

Do we really want to go through the crap they were pulling during Bush?

And, an enraged liberal group is a group that will turn out in droves in '14 and '16.



Nick

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:20:28 AM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
I found an update on this story that was interesting (http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university).  As I thought, the model is a retoractive model, it has never successfully predicted a Presidential election before it happened; however, the model did retroactively predict several elections that are normally very difficult to predict (1980, 1992 and 2000).  The fact that the model correctly predicted the 2000 outcome of electoral vote/popular vote was interesting, especially since the model relies almost entirely on economic data rather than polling data.

The authors updated their model to show a Romney 330 Obama 208 electoral vote (they now have New Mexico being a close fought battle for Romney).  I'll be shocked if Romney wins by numbers that lopsided; but for people who were interested in the original story.  This story goes into a lot more specific detail.  Also of the 13 models in the same publication, 5 predict an Obama win, 5 predict a Romney win, and 3 call it too close to call.


I wonder if the model takes vote fraud into account.


Well, if it correctly predicted 2000, 2004, and 2008 then I would say it must account for it somehow, though it doesn't appear to have any direct relation to vote fraud.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:20:47 AM EDT
This only happens if you assholes go and vote!
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:22:12 AM EDT
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


I would prefer he lose both.


I hope he loses huge to show the liberals that they are not the majority.  They are just noisier.



Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:31:01 AM EDT
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok.
 
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:33:32 AM EDT
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.



I'd buy that for a dollar!

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:37:28 AM EDT
if the electoral college was no more, BHO would lose big.
Many of the independants and republicans  here behind the Iron Curtain of Democratica would be more inclined to vote if NY,NJ, CA, IL ,CT,MA etc.
werent all in the win column before the friggin election.
It effects people alot when they think their vote means nothing.
Hurts local elections too.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:40:02 AM EDT
Quoted:
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok.  


What's so odd about that?  Feed it the data up to the same point in the race for every prior election, produce a result.  If it picks the winner in the other races, stands to reason it might do ok with the present election.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:42:18 AM EDT



Quoted:



Quoted:

Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok.  




What's so odd about that?  Feed it the data up to the same point in the race for every prior election, produce a result.  If it picks the winner in the other races, stands to reason it might do ok with the present election.


The metrics used to estimate winners have been shifting over recent elections though, haven't they? Especially here in 2012 where people directly hurt by Obama's policies can still be convinced it's Bushes fault.



 
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 5:45:57 AM EDT
Let's hope.

I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary...
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:00:41 AM EDT
Quoted:
Let's hope.

I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary...


If you think Matthews had a meltdown over the Obama debate performance; can you imagine what he would look like if Romney picks up 330 EV?
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:04:02 AM EDT



Quoted:



Quoted:

Let's hope.



I may actually watch MSNBC on election night just to see them have a collective coronary...




If you think Matthews had a meltdown over the Obama debate performance; can you imagine what he would look like if Romney picks up 330 EV?


Might actually get to see a real exploding head.





 
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:06:21 AM EDT



Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:

i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.




That would be great.




Could you even being to imagine the meltdown




You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest?


This. Who here thinks that our culturally diverse urban centers will take kindly to the explanation of the electoral college if the first black democrat president, The Giver of Gifts,  is replaced in that situation? Who here thinks the media will actually try to offer the explanation, as opposed to doing their best at stirring the pot?

 



The butthurt would be quickly forgotten when the cities start to burn.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:08:43 AM EDT





This would be slapping Obama in the face with a wet noodle



 
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:11:31 AM EDT
Quoted:
Retroactive prediction. Uh huh. ok.  


That's the most important part of predictive analysis. Anyone can say "my model predicts the future!" The key is building a model, then putting in historical data, and seeing if the results=reality.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:14:42 AM EDT
Please baby Jesus.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:16:24 AM EDT
I wouldn't advice reading the comments in that article if you value your sanity.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:16:58 AM EDT
*fingers crossed*

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:19:55 AM EDT
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be fuckng hilarious.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:20:50 AM EDT


I want to be watching msdnc on election night if he loses Illinois, it would be fucking awesome to watch the news guy Maddow....have a stroke
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:22:07 AM EDT
Official obama reelection portrait:

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:27:09 AM EDT



Quoted:


i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


While that would be hilarious, I'd rather Obama suffer a crushing electoral and popular defeat.  He needs to really feel the collective boot of America on his ass, and other politicians need to see it too.



 
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 6:38:49 AM EDT
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
i hope obama wins the popular, but loses the electoral - to enrage liberals for the next 4 years.


That would be great.


Could you even being to imagine the meltdown


You're really looking forward to a couple of summers of widespread civil unrest?

This. Who here thinks that our culturally diverse urban centers will take kindly to the explanation of the electoral college if the first black democrat president, The Giver of Gifts,  is replaced in that situation? Who here thinks the media will actually try to offer the explanation, as opposed to doing their best at stirring the pot?  

The butthurt would be quickly forgotten when the cities start to burn.


Even if the media tried to explain there would be civil unrest.
While ACORN is gone, the operatives didn't evaporate or move on to productive labor. They are still in the cities and they are still capable of enflaming the population. An electoral college win by WMR which occurred in the face of a popular vote loss would be just the spark they would need to get people out in the streets.

One other thing to think about: If civilian disarmament ("gun control") legislation made it to the President's desk, he would sign it. Why? Because to get passed it would have to be supported by most people and as a result be supported by majorities in both parties.
That's very unlikely. Something dreadful would have to happen to induce most people and a majority of Senators and Representatives in both parties to support "gun control". Something dreadful like two or three years of widespread civil unrest.  

Link Posted: 10/8/2012 7:53:59 AM EDT
Quoted:
Dupe


You're calling "DUPE" on a thread posted in August and bumped today? lol.
Link Posted: 10/8/2012 7:57:20 AM EDT
Please lord be true.
Arrow Left Previous Page
Page / 2
Top Top