Election Predictions, based on current Polls (edit 10/24 PM)....

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Election Predictions, based on current Polls (edit 10/24 PM)....

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:19:16 PM EDT

Take the State Polls from Real Clear Politics' Battle Ground Polls

And cross reference those polls with this Interactive Electoral College Map

Give Kerry the benefit of the doubt on all of the current polls.

Doing this, Kerry wins:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Jersey

Bush wins:

Wisconsin
Hawaii(?!)
W Virginia
Colorodo
Arizona
Iowa

Minnesota, Florida, Ohio are all tied.

Okay, ~~give Ohio to~~ Kerry. Give him Minnesota, too.

Bush STILL wins, IF he wins Florida.

If Kerry wins Florida, Bush HAS to win Ohio, Minnesota AND a few more EVs (like NH or NM).

If Bush wins Florida, Kerry needs to win Ohio, Minnesota AND Wisconsin, in order win.

It really just comes down to Florida.
Again.

If Kerry wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Ohio...

...and Bush wins Hawaii, New Hampshire and Florida...

We'll have a tie, at 269 EV's apiece.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:21:45 PM EDT

[#1]

Hmmmmmmm... Isn't Jeb Bush Governor of Florida?

And that's predictions.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:22:57 PM EDT

[#2]

Quite a POPULAR Governor, at that.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:24:42 PM EDT

[#3]

Dear God......... not Kerry!

PLEASE!

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:24:56 PM EDT

[#4]

Bush will win Florida. End of story.

Bush will win the election.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:14 PM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
We'll have a tie, at 269 EV's apiece.

If that happens, then it goes to the current Senate for a vote, right? BUSH WINS!!!

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:23 PM EDT

[#6]

Check this out:

Bush is 46%, Kerry 45% in Hawaii. But this is most interesting:

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.

starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/index2.html

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:38 PM EDT

[#7]

KEEP IN MIND.
I gave Kerry the HUGE benefit of the doubt in this analysis.
New Hampshire and New Mexico are for the most part TIED, also.

I just want to avoid wishful thinking.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:55 PM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Hmmmmmmm... Isn't Jeb Bush Governor of Florida?

And that's predictions.

Jeb has a 69% Approval rating down here!

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:58 PM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
Bush will win Florida. End of story.

Bush will win the election.

+1 Very true...Bush will get at least 300 Electoral Votes...it's not even gonna be close...

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:33:09 PM EDT

[#10]

If I had to bet my life on it - I would say Kerry.

I know Bush is ahead, but the MSM is going to give Kerry a major tilt over the next week.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:38:39 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
If I had to bet my life on it - I would say Kerry.

I know Bush is ahead, but the MSM is going to give Kerry a major tilt over the next week.

October Suprise...............

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:42:14 PM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
If I had to bet my life on it - I would say Kerry.

I know Bush is ahead, but the MSM is going to give Kerry a major tilt over the next week.

Okay, what's "MSM"?

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:43:26 PM EDT

[#13]

MSM"?

main stream media, ie dan rather

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:44:45 PM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
MSM"?

main stream media, ie dan rather

Thanks.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:45:44 PM EDT

[#15]

I think that the Bush Team is ready to ride out any last minute surges.
I'm sure (or at least hoping) that they have counter attacks prepared.

We'll see.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:46:47 PM EDT

[#16]

Too bad that Fox News is pulling in more viewers than the rest of the MSM combined.

Posted: 10/24/2004 2:54:04 PM EDT

[#17]

Posted: 10/24/2004 3:01:15 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
tinypic.com/e3wwj

Now imagine that pic with Skerry in it instead of GWB.
I was disgusted with Klinton but I truly HATE Skerry with a passion !!

Posted: 10/24/2004 3:16:46 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
Quoted:
tinypic.com/e3wwj

Now imagine that pic with Skerry in it instead of GWB.

I can't bring myself to imagine that.

Posted: 10/24/2004 5:07:16 PM EDT

[#20]

New Zogby has Bush UP in OHIO AND FLORIDA.

Posted: 10/25/2004 4:36:12 AM EDT

[#21]

Good Morning

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Election Predictions, based on current Polls (edit 10/24 PM)....

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