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Posted: 10/24/2004 2:19:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/25/2004 5:16:23 AM EDT by Cincinnatus]
Take the State Polls from Real Clear Politics' Battle Ground Polls

And cross reference those polls with this Interactive Electoral College Map

Give Kerry the benefit of the doubt on all of the current polls.

Doing this, Kerry wins:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Jersey

Bush wins:

Wisconsin
Hawaii(?!)
W Virginia
Colorodo
Arizona
Iowa


Minnesota, Florida, Ohio are all tied.

Okay, give Ohio to Kerry. Give him Minnesota, too.

Bush STILL wins, IF he wins Florida.

If Kerry wins Florida, Bush HAS to win Ohio, Minnesota AND a few more EVs (like NH or NM).

If Bush wins Florida, Kerry needs to win Ohio, Minnesota AND Wisconsin, in order win.



It really just comes down to Florida.
Again.


If Kerry wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Ohio...

...and Bush wins Hawaii, New Hampshire and Florida...

We'll have a tie, at 269 EV's apiece.


Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:21:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/24/2004 2:22:53 PM EDT by raf]
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:22:57 PM EDT
Quite a POPULAR Governor, at that.

Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:24:42 PM EDT
Dear God......... not Kerry!

PLEASE!
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:24:56 PM EDT
Bush will win Florida. End of story.

Bush will win the election.
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:14 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Cincinnatus:
We'll have a tie, at 269 EV's apiece.



If that happens, then it goes to the current Senate for a vote, right? BUSH WINS!!!
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:23 PM EDT
Check this out:

Bush is 46%, Kerry 45% in Hawaii. But this is most interesting:

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.

starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/index2.html
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/24/2004 2:27:45 PM EDT by Cincinnatus]
KEEP IN MIND.
I gave Kerry the HUGE benefit of the doubt in this analysis.
New Hampshire and New Mexico are for the most part TIED, also.

I just want to avoid wishful thinking.

Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:55 PM EDT

Originally Posted By raf:
Hmmmmmmm... Isn't Jeb Bush Governor of Florida?

And that's predictions.




Jeb has a 69% Approval rating down here!
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:26:58 PM EDT

Originally Posted By spm681:
Bush will win Florida. End of story.

Bush will win the election.



+1 Very true...Bush will get at least 300 Electoral Votes...it's not even gonna be close...
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:33:09 PM EDT
If I had to bet my life on it - I would say Kerry.

I know Bush is ahead, but the MSM is going to give Kerry a major tilt over the next week.
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:38:39 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:42:14 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Killbot:
If I had to bet my life on it - I would say Kerry.

I know Bush is ahead, but the MSM is going to give Kerry a major tilt over the next week.



Okay, what's "MSM"?
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:43:26 PM EDT

MSM"?



main stream media, ie dan rather
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:44:45 PM EDT

Originally Posted By spm681:

MSM"?



main stream media, ie dan rather



Thanks.
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:45:44 PM EDT
I think that the Bush Team is ready to ride out any last minute surges.
I'm sure (or at least hoping) that they have counter attacks prepared.

We'll see.
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:46:47 PM EDT
Too bad that Fox News is pulling in more viewers than the rest of the MSM combined.
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 2:54:04 PM EDT
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 3:01:15 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Sin_Bin:
tinypic.com/e3wwj



Now imagine that pic with Skerry in it instead of GWB.
I was disgusted with Klinton but I truly HATE Skerry with a passion !!
Link Posted: 10/24/2004 3:16:46 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SPECTRE:

Originally Posted By Sin_Bin:
tinypic.com/e3wwj



Now imagine that pic with Skerry in it instead of GWB.



I can't bring myself to imagine that.

Link Posted: 10/24/2004 5:07:16 PM EDT
New Zogby has Bush UP in OHIO AND FLORIDA.
Link Posted: 10/25/2004 4:36:12 AM EDT
Good Morning
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