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Posted: 11/12/2008 4:59:45 PM EDT
Economists differ on the definition, and typically only agree after the fact, but at some point all but those in permanent denial accept that it  is occurring, or has become inevitable.

Post when you believe it is inevitable or is occurring.

I am of the opinion it has become inevitable as of now.

If you think it will never happen, what will turn the tide?
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:05:08 PM EDT
All we need is Hope.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:06:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/12/2008 5:13:58 PM EDT by SS109]
Not yet.

A depression is when I lose my job. Honestly I don't know anyone who has lost their house or their job yet.

Edit: I lied, my company cut back 5% of their workforce last quarter, mainly trimming the fat since we are now hiring again.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:07:00 PM EDT
It is happening as we speak and the .gov knows it, which is why the govt is bankrupting the country trying to shore up the status quo. It will take 3-5 years to become evident, just like last time
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:08:06 PM EDT
One more down quarter and it's offical. We will know January for sure.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:08:09 PM EDT
11-4-2008

I believe that this country's econimic woes were mfg by the liberal press to destroy Pres Bush and to ensure Obama's win.  They will start trumpeting how fabulous everything is very soon.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:08:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/12/2008 5:09:21 PM EDT by st0newall]
found this..

A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

i give it a 75% chance of happening in the next 24 months.

couldna help but see your avatar which was a creation of the depression..

The NIRA was overturned in May,1935 when the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously ruled in the case Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States (295 U.S. 495, 1935), sometimes called the "sick chicken" case, that the Act infringed upon states' authority, unreasonably stretched the Commerce Clause, and gave legislative powers to the executive branch in violation of the Nondelegation doctrine. Moreover, the opinion fell back on the question of constitutional authority by stating, "extraordinary conditions do not create or enlarge constitutional powers."[3] By then the NRA program had become unpopular and there was no effort to rewrite the legislation.[4]

NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY ACT



There is controversy over the effectiveness of this Act.[5] Section 7(a) helped promote the formation of labor unions, and led to the establishment of the National Labor Board. The Act's lack of clarity and enforcement powers regarding unions led to passage of the Wagner Act in 1935, which incorporated Section 7(a).
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:08:28 PM EDT
Originally Posted By webtaz99:
All we need is Hope.


.........immediately followed by change.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:10:08 PM EDT
Only after 2 consecutive years of negative GDP growth.  The MSM will not admit it under an Obama administration until they have to.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:11:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/12/2008 5:12:30 PM EDT by omega62]


Originally Posted By AROptics:

Economists differ on the definition, and typically only agree after the fact, but at some point all but those in permanent denial accept that it is occurring, or has become inevitable.



Post when you believe it is inevitable or is occurring.



I am of the opinion it has become inevitable as of now.



If you think it will never happen, what will turn the tide?



You do realize your avatar is from FDR's National Recovery Act, and not the National Rifle Association, right?



Just seems appropriate to your topic!



EDIT: I see someone beat me.

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:12:48 PM EDT
Originally Posted By epnurse:
Only after 2 consecutive years of negative GDP growth.  The MSM will not admit it under an Obama administration until they have to.


That may actually help out the economy. Like when the goverment lies about inflation.

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:15:51 PM EDT
From Wiki:


"...a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations..."


Q1/Q2 next year, IMO, for all the bailout chickens to come home to roost.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:19:10 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/12/2008 5:19:32 PM EDT by AROptics]
Originally Posted By st0newall:
found this..

A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

i give it a 75% chance of happening in the next 24 months.

couldna help but see your avatar which was a creation of the depression..

The NIRA was overturned in May,1935 when the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously ruled in the case Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States (295 U.S. 495, 1935), sometimes called the "sick chicken" case, that the Act infringed upon states' authority, unreasonably stretched the Commerce Clause, and gave legislative powers to the executive branch in violation of the Nondelegation doctrine. Moreover, the opinion fell back on the question of constitutional authority by stating, "extraordinary conditions do not create or enlarge constitutional powers."[3] By then the NRA program had become unpopular and there was no effort to rewrite the legislation.[4]

NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY ACT

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3b/NewDealNRA.jpg

There is controversy over the effectiveness of this Act.[5] Section 7(a) helped promote the formation of labor unions, and led to the establishment of the National Labor Board. The Act's lack of clarity and enforcement powers regarding unions led to passage of the Wagner Act in 1935, which incorporated Section 7(a).


My avatar is as simple as the fact that sign was posted in Ike Godsey's store in the old TV series The Waltons [set in part during the Great Depression]. I have always known it wasn't the National Rifle Association, I just thought of it as an evocative symbol [it is to me] of the times we are in for...

Similarly overreaching and unconstitutional efforts by Obama should be expected.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:20:04 PM EDT
Today's Financial Times reports that Johm Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch, says that "The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions comparable with the period after the 1929 crash".

LINK

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:20:46 PM EDT
We are in the early stages of one........theres just too much optimistic bullshit being slung around.

Dont believe it.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:23:12 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Z_0:
Today's Financial Times reports that Johm Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch, says that "The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions comparable with the period after the 1929 crash".

LINK



requires a password....
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:23:25 PM EDT
November 4th.

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:25:20 PM EDT
Originally Posted By ranchhand:
11-4-2008

I believe that this country's econimic woes were mfg by the liberal press to destroy Pres Bush and to ensure Obama's win.  They will start trumpeting how fabulous everything is very soon.


You're right, they've did that for the last three elections (at least).  I just hope they haven't gone too far this time.

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:27:33 PM EDT
Depression.  Not close yet.  

Recession. Yep.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:28:08 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Mach:
It is happening as we speak and the .gov knows it, which is why the govt is bankrupting the country trying to shore up the status quo. It will take 3-5 years to become evident, just like last time


I'm very much inclined to believe this at this juncture.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:28:23 PM EDT
Originally Posted By st0newall:
Originally Posted By Z_0:
Today's Financial Times reports that Johm Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch, says that "The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions comparable with the period after the 1929 crash".

LINK



requires a password....


Sorry you are having problems.  It works for me and I don't have an account.  It has a box for logging in but I can still read the article.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:28:29 PM EDT
Originally Posted By AROptics:
Originally Posted By st0newall:
found this..

A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

i give it a 75% chance of happening in the next 24 months.

couldna help but see your avatar which was a creation of the depression..

The NIRA was overturned in May,1935 when the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously ruled in the case Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States (295 U.S. 495, 1935), sometimes called the "sick chicken" case, that the Act infringed upon states' authority, unreasonably stretched the Commerce Clause, and gave legislative powers to the executive branch in violation of the Nondelegation doctrine. Moreover, the opinion fell back on the question of constitutional authority by stating, "extraordinary conditions do not create or enlarge constitutional powers."[3] By then the NRA program had become unpopular and there was no effort to rewrite the legislation.[4]

NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY ACT

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3b/NewDealNRA.jpg

There is controversy over the effectiveness of this Act.[5] Section 7(a) helped promote the formation of labor unions, and led to the establishment of the National Labor Board. The Act's lack of clarity and enforcement powers regarding unions led to passage of the Wagner Act in 1935, which incorporated Section 7(a).


My avatar is as simple as the fact that sign was posted in Ike Godsey's store in the old TV series The Waltons [set in part during the Great Depression]. I have always known it wasn't the National Rifle Association, I just thought of it as an evocative symbol [it is to me] of the times we are in for...

Similarly overreaching and unconstitutional efforts by Obama should be expected.


interestingly the economy of today is based much more on consumption than production.. buying stuff.. lots of stuff produced is for consumption, not necessarily as a basic need or part of infrastructure or capital goods.. as such, its somewhat discretionary and so doesn't need to be purchased.. so what happens when the herd freezes in the headlights and decides it aint gonna spend anything it doesnt absolutely have too? could the results be worse than 29?......
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:30:55 PM EDT
An economic recession is when other people have financial problems. An economic depression is when YOU are affected.

We're in a recession.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:31:33 PM EDT
Here is the article for those who are having problems.

Merrill chief sees severe global slowdown
By Greg Farrell in New York
Published: November 11 2008 14:42 | Last updated: November 11 2008 20:06
The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic prop ortions comparable with the period after the 1929 crash, John Thain, chairman and chief executive of Merrill Lynch, warned on Tuesday.

Speaking at the company’s annual banking and financial services conference, Mr Thain said while he was cautiously optimistic about the future of the financial services industry, he lacked optimism about the near-term prospects of the US economy and global markets.

“Right now, the US economy is contracting very rapidly. We are looking at a per iod of global slowdown,” he told investors. “This is not like 1987 or 1998 or 2001. The contraction going on is bigger than that. We will in fact look back to the 1929 period to see the kind of slow down we’re seeing now.”

Mr Thain also said the economic problems afflicting the US, where housing prices and other asset values were falling, would wreak havoc across the world.

“There is no such thing as decoupling,” he said, referring to the popular theory that emerging markets could sustain reasonable growth even while the world’s leading economies suffered recessions. “All equity markets are linked. Each individual economy will be more or less affected, depending on reliance on global trade and commerce.”

But Mr Thain expressed cautious optimism about the financial services industry. Referring to the US government’s $700bn bail-out package and the direct infusion of $125bn to recapitalise the country’s biggest banks, he said “all of that is starting to take effect”.

Mr Thain noted US dollar London interbank offered rates were starting to come down and the commercial paper market was starting to see a return of liquidity. Merrill itself recently issued some three-month commercial paper, he said, instead of the overnight paper that had dominated the market in recent weeks.

Still, he added, there remains “a huge amount of dislocation in credit markets. Although things are starting to improve, this is going to be a long process”.

Mr Thain was most optimistic about the forthcoming combination of his company with Bank of America. The deal would give Merrill Lynch’s wealth management advisers access to BofA’s “huge pool of wealthy individuals”, he said.

Shareholders of both companies are expected to vote on the deal on December 5, with the transaction closing on or about December 31, Mr Thain said.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:31:49 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Baldmonk:
One more down quarter and it's offical. We will know January for sure.



I am certain that when the 4th quarter results come out in January, we will officially be in a recession.

Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:33:00 PM EDT
If they(.gov) continue to get invovled in the financial world, it will be soon, very soon.
They need to step out and let the .biz handle its own
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:34:04 PM EDT
I think we've been in a recession since spring.  Everytime the economic numbers come out, they just look a little screwy.  I think the media has been trying to make the economy seem better than it is, at least right up untill the election, when they started screaming how bad it really was, because they knew it would help Obama.

Soon they will go right back to telling us how everything is "improving", as we spiral into hell.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:39:44 PM EDT
4th qtr 2008, will last until 2nd qtr 2010.......
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:45:13 PM EDT
Producing stuff may be overrated.  Back in the '30s a lot of people were poor and didn't have much.  Now people rent out storage to put all their crap in.

But we're in a recession, possibly the worst since '80.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:45:57 PM EDT
I think it is very likely that we are now in a recession.  We had slightly negative third quarter growth but the path is all down.  My favorite indicator for a recession––a huge sale on Walt Disney World vacation packages––was announced four days ago.  

We'll know for sure in late January.  The truly bad news is that this is just the beginning, and pretty mild for now.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:48:59 PM EDT
In.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 5:57:01 PM EDT
When my patients start to pay me in chickens.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 10:04:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/12/2008 10:31:34 PM EDT by AROptics]
Just in: 3rd quarter German (largest eurozone economy) GDP contracts 2 1/2 times faster than forecast.

German economy officially in recession.

British Telecom cuts 10,000 jobs.
Link Posted: 11/12/2008 10:17:02 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Mach:
It is happening as we speak and the .gov knows it, which is why the govt is bankrupting the country trying to shore up the status quo. It will take 3-5 years to become evident, just like last time



This...
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 3:47:31 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Z_0:
Here is the article for those who are having problems.

Merrill chief sees severe global slowdown
By Greg Farrell in New York
Published: November 11 2008 14:42 | Last updated: November 11 2008 20:06
The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic prop ortions comparable with the period after the 1929 crash, John Thain, chairman and chief executive of Merrill Lynch, warned on Tuesday.

Speaking at the company’s annual banking and financial services conference, Mr Thain said while he was cautiously optimistic about the future of the financial services industry, he lacked optimism about the near-term prospects of the US economy and global markets.

“Right now, the US economy is contracting very rapidly. We are looking at a per iod of global slowdown,” he told investors. “This is not like 1987 or 1998 or 2001. The contraction going on is bigger than that. We will in fact look back to the 1929 period to see the kind of slow down we’re seeing now.”

Mr Thain also said the economic problems afflicting the US, where housing prices and other asset values were falling, would wreak havoc across the world.

“There is no such thing as decoupling,” he said, referring to the popular theory that emerging markets could sustain reasonable growth even while the world’s leading economies suffered recessions. “All equity markets are linked. Each individual economy will be more or less affected, depending on reliance on global trade and commerce.”

But Mr Thain expressed cautious optimism about the financial services industry. Referring to the US government’s $700bn bail-out package and the direct infusion of $125bn to recapitalise the country’s biggest banks, he said “all of that is starting to take effect”.

Mr Thain noted US dollar London interbank offered rates were starting to come down and the commercial paper market was starting to see a return of liquidity. Merrill itself recently issued some three-month commercial paper, he said, instead of the overnight paper that had dominated the market in recent weeks.

Still, he added, there remains “a huge amount of dislocation in credit markets. Although things are starting to improve, this is going to be a long process”.

Mr Thain was most optimistic about the forthcoming combination of his company with Bank of America. The deal would give Merrill Lynch’s wealth management advisers access to BofA’s “huge pool of wealthy individuals”, he said.

Shareholders of both companies are expected to vote on the deal on December 5, with the transaction closing on or about December 31, Mr Thain said.



Like we should trust what the Merrill guy says, didn't he run his company into the ground?

I am getting hammered by travel companies trying to get me to take a cruise, I don't think so, not this year.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 3:49:33 AM EDT
Originally Posted By webtaz99:
All we need is Hope.


And spare change
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 3:52:29 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 3:57:09 AM EDT
I just got a job and start FT tonight. My economic depression is over.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 5:11:51 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 5:40:44 AM EDT
Things will be bad for a lot more people than usual.  Life has tough bumps.  I personally would not know anything was amiss were it not for the media.  Keep on keeping on.  Panic is not a recipe for success.  

If people took the above more to heart, we would not have the .gov problems we have now.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 6:09:57 AM EDT
Originally Posted By SS109:
Not yet.

A depression is when I lose my job. Honestly I don't know anyone who has lost their house or their job yet.

Edit: I lied, my company cut back 5% of their workforce last quarter, mainly trimming the fat since we are now hiring again.


Drive down my street.  There are eight houses on my block and they were all occupied last year.  Now three are vacant.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 6:12:50 AM EDT
Next year after poor retail sales, watch these companies.

Link Posted: 11/13/2008 6:13:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/13/2008 6:14:22 AM EDT by James23]
I'm not an economist, but I have seen one on TV.

Not a depression yet, but pieces are in place. Job cuts / unemployment is what will turn the tide.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 6:47:43 AM EDT
We are currently in recession and have been for a little while. Depression? Not yet..... but when the bailouts fail and Obama raises taxes and more layoffs occur I think you'll see it start to happen. Ask this question again next year.
Link Posted: 11/13/2008 7:04:01 AM EDT
Originally Posted By jt325i:
We are currently in recession and have been for a little while. Depression? Not yet..... but when the bailouts fail and Obama raises taxes and more layoffs occur I think you'll see it start to happen. Ask this question again next year.


Not according to Sherrick.  However the difference between 0.01 growth and -0.01 growth is close enough for me to say 'We are currentyly in recession'

Link Posted: 11/13/2008 7:52:25 AM EDT
I began to notice I wasn't having much fun anymore around 1978.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:22:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/19/2008 12:25:28 PM EDT by AROptics]
The Market has closed in the 7000's. Germany, Japan, Canada officially in recession. Bailout Bill a total flop in terms of getting credit flowing, and the auto industry saying it is going under without billions of taxpayer money.

Seriously, where do you think are we headed economically?

Any happy news from Dave_A or Sherrick?
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:30:41 PM EDT
Originally Posted By AROptics:
The Market has closed in the 7000's. Germany, Japan, Canada officially in recession. Bailout Bill a total flop in terms of getting credit flowing, and the auto industry saying it is going under without billions of taxpayer money.

Seriously, where are we headed economically?

Any happy news from Dave_A or Sherrick?


Ohhhh, they'll be along shortly after they have licked their windows clean to enlighten the uneducated masses with their usual blathering bullshit, mockery, ridicule, and chicken little jokes.

They never pass up a chance to show off their infinate clueless ignorance.
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:34:21 PM EDT
I layed of 1/3 of my workforce


I don't care what you choose to call it

it sucks

first time I have shed tears over my job that I can remember
Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:39:22 PM EDT
Originally Posted By TaterSalad:
Originally Posted By AROptics:
The Market has closed in the 7000's. Germany, Japan, Canada officially in recession. Bailout Bill a total flop in terms of getting credit flowing, and the auto industry saying it is going under without billions of taxpayer money.

Seriously, where are we headed economically?

Any happy news from Dave_A or Sherrick?


Ohhhh, they'll be along shortly after they have licked their windows clean to enlighten the uneducated masses with their usual blathering bullshit, mockery, ridicule, and chicken little jokes.

They never pass up a chance to show off their infinate clueless ignorance.
I doubt it, even the terminally stupid get the message at some point.

Link Posted: 11/19/2008 12:47:31 PM EDT
Originally Posted By galogger:
Originally Posted By TaterSalad:
Originally Posted By AROptics:
The Market has closed in the 7000's. Germany, Japan, Canada officially in recession. Bailout Bill a total flop in terms of getting credit flowing, and the auto industry saying it is going under without billions of taxpayer money.

Seriously, where are we headed economically?

Any happy news from Dave_A or Sherrick?


Ohhhh, they'll be along shortly after they have licked their windows clean to enlighten the uneducated masses with their usual blathering bullshit, mockery, ridicule, and chicken little jokes.

They never pass up a chance to show off their infinite clueless ignorance.
I doubt it, even the terminally stupid get the message at some point.



That's just it though. A normal stupid idiot will occasionally understand that they are a dumbass and just STFU.

When someone is so mentally retarded that they live in their own delusional universe, they never understand just how truly stupid and out of touch with reality they are.
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