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Posted: 9/18/2009 2:53:06 AM EST
As the bears and gloom and doomers sit idley by, frozen steadfast in their beliefs we are going off a cliff, the Dow is poised to eclipse 10,000 - a fat 52% gain since March 9. Those that sold or stayed on the sidelines succumbed once again to the herd mentality and talking heads.

The question is why has it risen so much and where do we go from here?

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 2:54:28 AM EST
Originally Posted By hicap:
As the bears and gloom and doomers sit idley by, frozen steadfast in their beliefs we are going off a cliff, the Dow is poised to eclipse 10,000 - a fat 52% gain since March 9. Those that sold or stayed on the sidelines succumbed once again to the herd mentality and talking heads.

The question is why has it risen so much and where do we go from here?



I'm glad I didn't sell anything and invested like mad while it was in the shitter. Yes, I know we're only seconds away from impending collapse.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 2:56:55 AM EST
false rally?
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:13:26 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 3:14:57 AM EST by Mazeman]
Diversification, and dollar cost averaging. Yes, the old rules still apply. I also own bonds and precious metals and cash, etc. It feels nice to have kept buying when the Dow was at its low.

Market timing is fraught with difficulty. I basically change my allocation percentage as I age, not according to what I think might happen.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:16:11 AM EST
Originally Posted By hicap:
As the bears and gloom and doomers sit idley by, frozen steadfast in their beliefs we are going off a cliff, the Dow is poised to eclipse 10,000 - a fat 52% gain since March 9. Those that sold or stayed on the sidelines succumbed once again to the herd mentality and talking heads.

The question is why has it risen so much and where do we go from here?



[sarcasm]Obama has saved the world! Woohoo![/sarcasm]




Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:17:14 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 3:18:10 AM EST by Popobawa]
edit: fukit, this board code interpreter sucks.

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:18:03 AM EST
High-frequency trading. You don't invest in this market, but that's not to say you can't make good money trading the beast until it crashes into oblivion.

(Hint: You're being lied to)

Tickerforum
Market-Ticker
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:28:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 3:31:58 AM EST by Jeeper21]
If we collapse, the money gained from selling off stock will be just as worthless as the money of those who bought them. Buying low when the market is shit will produce a Win situation when it recovers. If it becomes a lose, everyone is fucked anyway.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:34:00 AM EST
I invested in 40 acres with water on it.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:35:49 AM EST
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:37:43 AM EST
Originally Posted By max229:
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE.


Yes they will.

I do think the current Dow is due for another fall before it stays above 10k.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:38:01 AM EST
Originally Posted By max229:
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE.


I've been very busy at work for 3 straight weeks. We sell Heavy Equipment Tractor Parts.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:39:29 AM EST

Originally Posted By usptac:
High-frequency trading. You don't invest in this market, but that's not to say you can't make good money trading the beast until it crashes into oblivion.

(Hint: You're being lied to)

Tickerforum
Market-Ticker

Hush! The recession is over and they have fixed all of the problems with the banks and real estate!


Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:40:16 AM EST
even the government says we are following exactly in the same false foot steps that brought the last collapse.

oh well.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:41:46 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 3:54:54 AM EST by readytorock556]
Get out befor oct, here it may be a bad month...
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:42:39 AM EST
Originally Posted By max229:
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR.


If the dow every gets to that point it will be b/c the dollar has no value at all.

Maybe the dow should be up to 12, 13, even 16k––-it should be going up w/ all the manipulations, injections, bail out, tarps, etc––-$24 TRILLION worth!

It's called inflation.

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:46:07 AM EST
It's all false, nothing is ever good, nothing has ever been good, it's all a lie and always has been, it's a conspiracy, we're all doomed, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:49:09 AM EST
Originally Posted By sherrick13:

I do think the current Dow is due for another fall before it stays above 10k.


Looks like a retest of the 9400 level. If it holds then climbs it'll hover at 9900 for awhile.

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:52:08 AM EST
Have any new jobs been created?

Nope? Then who cares.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:54:43 AM EST
Karl Denninger has presented enough evidence to convince me that the major banks are still hiding huge amounts of bad debt (not foreclosing on delinquent mortgages which would mean they would have to sell the house at a loss, but rather keeping the mortgage on the books at face value when it has no chance of ever being repaid, etc.) Whether this will require another huge bailout or if they can maintain sufficient cashflow to eventually grow their way out of the problem remains to be seen. IMO, it's not going to be pretty unless there's a huge positive change in the employment situation RFN.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:56:20 AM EST
Dow = Good for the moment.

Commercial real estate = just about to go in the shitter.

When that happens the equations will change.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:58:59 AM EST
Originally Posted By hicap:
As the bears and gloom and doomers sit idley by, frozen steadfast in their beliefs we are going off a cliff, the Dow is poised to eclipse 10,000 - a fat 52% gain since March 9. Those that sold or stayed on the sidelines succumbed once again to the herd mentality and talking heads.

The question is why has it risen so much and where do we go from here?



Monetizing the Debt or 'Printing' Money will stimulate anything,

What has really changed?
Take out all Government Stimulus, what would WE be left with?
This is delaying the inevitable, and making it worse with the amount of 'DEBT' being forced onto US, the Taxpayers.

I can't wait to hear the Spin about all of these 'Gains' in a few years....Inflation Adjusted ?

What good are Manipulated Gains, when each dollar is worth Less.

Capitalism isn't defined by the Stock Market. Ponzi Scheme is more appropriate


Link Posted: 9/18/2009 3:59:09 AM EST
how much of the "volume" was trading of essentially worthless [tax-payer subsidized] companies?

C, BAC, Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, AIG, etc?

What companies got bailout money, but went on to boast of record profits (on the order of $50-100billion PER DAY) in the heart of the "recession," just after the government affiliates let their only competitor be sold off for parts? Who lost program code that could be used to "manipulate the market" by their own admissions - and who's mainframe computers sit right next to the NYSE servers? Who has ex-employees at every major position within government (bernake, Paulson, Geitner, too many more to list)?

Goldmann Sachs anyone?

there's a lot of juice behind the scenes - there's no way to compete with the Big Boys and their high-powered Toys, but you can ride the coat-tails and leech.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:11:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 4:12:27 AM EST by America-first]
This video; watch it.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/search-results/m/26074379/dow-jones-past-ten-years-in-trading.htm

This is why buy and hold forever is a suckers game; you need to trade actively to convert paper gains into real gains.

This current market is suspended in thin air.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:13:41 AM EST
Originally Posted By Chairborne:
Originally Posted By hicap:
As the bears and gloom and doomers sit idley by, frozen steadfast in their beliefs we are going off a cliff, the Dow is poised to eclipse 10,000 - a fat 52% gain since March 9. Those that sold or stayed on the sidelines succumbed once again to the herd mentality and talking heads.

The question is why has it risen so much and where do we go from here?



I'm glad I didn't sell anything and invested like mad while it was in the shitter. Yes, I know we're only seconds away from impending collapse.


<–––– waiting for the inevitable arfcom "Now's the time to sell everything and buy gold!"
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:17:04 AM EST
"Now's the time to sell everything and buy gold!"

Not really.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:19:24 AM EST
Ask Why
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:22:42 AM EST
Originally Posted By agillig:
Have any new jobs been created?

Nope? Then who cares.


Stocks are a leading indicator.

Jobs are a lagging indicator.

Been that way for decades.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:24:47 AM EST
We bailed out all those hedge funds. They are investing again. Probably to our downfall.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:25:09 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 4:28:06 AM EST by TRW]
Simple math. Stock price = company book value / number of outstanding shares.

Stock prices are tied to earnings. Good earnings obviously means a higher book value. Higher book value (so the theory goes) means higher share price, etc, etc.

The economy is pretty shitty right now but after the precipitous drop (crash) of a year ago, the market finally bottomed out and when the market crashes, there is no place for it to go but up, especially on the blue chips. Whether this current trend continues is the big question.

The market is pretty skittish right now. Everything that Obama or Congress says or does has possible short and long term financial impacts on every company in America. If he farts, that could be interpreted as reduced future earnings and is thus quickly reflected in the stock price. Bank bailouts, stimulus packages nobody can pay for, and all this talk of socialism, government interference and takeovers, and possible huge tax hikes has both intended and unintended consequences on the current and future economy.

Through short sightedness, stupidity, and emotionalism; this country voted in this congress and president, and is NOW getting exactly what they deserved and asked for.

"The business of America is business"
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:26:31 AM EST
Originally Posted By Jeeper21:
If we collapse, the money gained from selling off stock will be just as worthless as the money of those who bought them. Buying low when the market is shit will produce a Win situation when it recovers. If it becomes a lose, everyone is fucked anyway.


Exactly. Gold, if we're honest, is just another worthless currency if the S really does HTF. What practical use does gold have after the collapse of society? The only advatage it has over paper is that it is of a limited supply and can't be inflated by over-printing. Look at Katrina. People weren't trading with gold; they were bartering for bottled water and food.

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:28:28 AM EST
After october 1929, the Brits and Americans created piles of cash and lowered rates to "rally the market".

Then the market lost ~50% of its value then by April 1930 had regained ~48%. All the while unemployment crept up, more businesses failed and work slowed.

Once the reality became obvious, the markets slid to reflect what was ACTUALLY happening. The market then lost 89% of its value.


The exact same thing is happening now with the ADDITION of huge investment firms that are forcing the markets higher to hide the truth, because folks like Soros and Buffett are in Obama's pocket. or they share pockets, but they are working together to create a false market that does not reflect what is ACTUALLY happening.

Consumer spending continues to fall, manufacturing WORLDWIDE is plummeting, jobs are being lost and at the same time the wolves (Iran, Korea, Russia, China, Venezuela) are circling and arming, while we appease them. This is the 1930s all over again. A commie in the White House and an economy being forced into destruction on PLAN. And danger at our doorstep.

People, you have GOT to think about more then just the DOW number as the end all be all to indicate prosperity. You also have to think more then 1 year out. The next 10-20 years is going to be a rough ride.

I doubt many people in 1929 or 1930 thought that what was happening would not be recovered from until 1954 and the deaths of MILLIONS of people worldwide.

This is more then just about simple markets or money. The world has been placed on a dangerous path. The only thing that evil needs to succeed is for good men to sit by and do nothing.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:29:33 AM EST
Originally Posted By PAEBR332:
Originally Posted By agillig:
Have any new jobs been created?

Nope? Then who cares.


Stocks are a leading indicator.

Jobs are a lagging indicator.

Been that way for decades.


+1. Unemployment numbers have started to flatten out. I think we'll have a small pullback where people take some profits when we hit 10k (kinda like when we hit 9500). It's a natural resistance level and if we break out I think our economy is slowly improving to the point where it will be able to sustain a legitimate rally. For the guys sitting on the side...... The S&P has been up 49% since march, interest rates were at all time low with pretty mcuh nowhere to go except up. The idiots thinking that "gold will save us all" are going to be in for a sharp surprise again when an ounce will drop to $600 in value. The only thing that really needs to thaw out at this poitn is the credit market. Institutions are unwilling to lend out large sums of money for two primary reasons: regulators have upped reserve requirements and some have been using a portion of their funds to plug up holes in their books. More of the former than the latter. Until they can get the M2 money supply floating around, and people begin spending we'll still be stuck in "recession". Oh and btw, whoever thinks that Obama has anything to do with improving the markets has no idea how markets work. It's a natural eceonomic cycle.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:38:33 AM EST
Gold topping $1000 regularly now.

Oil going down in price, but gas price rising (around here) >5% in one hour.

Audit the Fed to find out just how much money has been injected into the stock market to keep it afloat.




















Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:39:22 AM EST
Originally Posted By JimsZR2:
Originally Posted By max229:
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE.


I've been very busy at work for 3 straight weeks. We sell Heavy Equipment Tractor Parts.


Because very few people are buying NEW tractors?
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:40:09 AM EST
the dow is not an indicator of the economy. people just think it is because it's on the news every night
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:40:46 AM EST
PE ratios of 20 to one are totally normal, at this point in the business cycle, right? This rally is totally supported by the underlying fundamentals, right?

It has nothing to do with the drop in the dollar, supercharged leverage with funds provided by the Fed, speculation, high frequency trading, or any manipulation whatsoever, right? Happy days are here again, and we should buy, buy, buy or be priced out forever, right? Insider stock trades are at twenty to thirty to one on the sell side, just as they were before the fall from 14000, so that means we should all buy now, since the insiders are all dumping their stock, right? Get it while it's "cheap", right?

Ben Bernanke has declared the recession over. So it must be all good, right? This is just another business cycle recession caused by the Fed, right? No inflationary after-effects, or post-stimulus slump, right? It doesn't matter that 80% of all major international economic growth is a direct result of governments' stimulus efforts, right?

Some of you people need to adjust your time frames. Humans think in terms of hour to hour, day to day, while we need to plan in terms of years or decades, unless you are some kind of "day trader".

Everyone with a brain saw this rally coming since at least March. The REAL question, for the smart kids in the class, is where does it go from here?



Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:42:50 AM EST
Oil has risen to $70 a barrel and rising above that ($72 on Bloomberg). Or did you mean something else?
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Gold topping $1000 regularly now.

Oil going down in price, but gas price rising (around here) >5% in one hour.

Audit the Fed to find out just how much money has been injected into the stock market to keep it afloat.



Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:46:14 AM EST
With dollar cost averaging and me not going into panic, I have already gained back 85% of my losses from the worrst market crash in recent history.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:48:01 AM EST
Originally Posted By EagleArmsHBAR:
With dollar cost averaging and me not going into panic, I have already gained back 85% of my losses from the worrst market crash in recent history.


Unpossible!

Every expert on ARFCOM has assured me that gold is the only viable investment right now and that this is just a sucker's rally brought about by shadow groups manipulating the market. Karl Denninger is the only true path to enlightenment and enrichment.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:52:58 AM EST
Originally Posted By EagleArmsHBAR:
With dollar cost averaging and me not going into panic, I have already gained back 85% of my losses from the worrst market crash in recent history.


I'm in exactly the same boat, but I bought some individual stocks that were beat down and they've been paying me back handsomely, so I'm probably at 90-95% of where I was pre-crash.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:55:15 AM EST



Everyone with a brain saw this rally coming since at least March.....




Well, then there must be a lot of ARFCOMERs without brains. I remember all those doom and gloom threads in March continuing to advise people to bail out of the market and avoid stocks. I was criticized for saying that March was the bottom. Those threads have continued every week since March. Reading those thousands of posts shows that a lot of people missed this 50% run up.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:58:09 AM EST
Originally Posted By Mazeman:



Everyone with a brain saw this rally coming since at least March.....




Well, then there must be a lot of ARFCOMERs without brains. I remember all those doom and gloom threads in March continuing to advise people to bail out of the market and avoid stocks. I was criticized for saying that March was the bottom. Those threads have continued every week since March. Reading those thousands of posts shows that a lot of people missed this 50% run up.


But, but, but... Karl Denninger says...
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 4:58:45 AM EST
im within 10k of where i was before the crash
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:04:12 AM EST
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Originally Posted By JimsZR2:
Originally Posted By max229:
It will be nearing 20K and people here will still be talking about the IMPENDING COLLAPSE.


I've been very busy at work for 3 straight weeks. We sell Heavy Equipment Tractor Parts.


Because very few people are buying NEW tractors?



We are doing repairs to trucks that I haven't seen in the 16 years I have been with my company. We were told a while back that NOTHING,short of a totaled accident job will go away.

The boss mentioned we ain't buying anything next year either. Our capex for our department was reduced 95%.

Did I mention we are still profitable?

When I see any improvement in freight I will be the first to jump for joy.


Chris




Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:06:01 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 5:08:04 AM EST by giacutter]
But where to from here?
What's the time frame? A year, a decade?

The folks who piled into the Japanese market at 16000 in 1992 and stayed in because they were convinced the 'bottom' was in are still waiting for their money back. Dollar cost average that.

How much money have the dollar-cost averagers made since 1999, in terms of the US indeces?




Originally Posted By Mazeman:



Everyone with a brain saw this rally coming since at least March.....




Well, then there must be a lot of ARFCOMERs without brains. I remember all those doom and gloom threads in March continuing to advise people to bail out of the market and avoid stocks. I was criticized for saying that March was the bottom. Those threads have continued every week since March. Reading those thousands of posts shows that a lot of people missed this 50% run up.


Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:08:53 AM EST
When every idiot is freaking out and selling selling selling, you should be buying. When there is blood in the streets, buy.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:11:02 AM EST
Threads like remind me that we STILL have 'tards praying for a collapse just because it would make 0bama look bad.

0bama is tanking so badly, a recovering economy doesn't matter. Get over yourselves and see my sigline. Oh, and check the fry machine...I think the dinger went off.
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:13:16 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/18/2009 5:14:45 AM EST by Mazeman]

Originally Posted By giacutter:
But where to from here?
What's the time frame? A year, a decade?

The folks who piled into the Japanese market at 16000 in 1992 and stayed in because they were convinced the 'bottom' was in are still waiting for their money back. Dollar cost average that.

How much money have the dollar-cost averagers made since 1999, in terms of the indexes?




Originally Posted By Mazeman:



Everyone with a brain saw this rally coming since at least March.....




Well, then there must be a lot of ARFCOMERs without brains. I remember all those doom and gloom threads in March continuing to advise people to bail out of the market and avoid stocks. I was criticized for saying that March was the bottom. Those threads have continued every week since March. Reading those thousands of posts shows that a lot of people missed this 50% run up.


Where from here? That's impossible to predict. That's my point. Those who were certain we were going to continue to go down the shitter in March missed 50% gains since then. You can't time the market.

So the answer remains 1) diversification adjusted for age, and 2) Dollar cost averaging. People who just kept plugging away and buying stocks throughout the last year are feeling content right now. They also continued to buy bonds, precious metals, etc according to their diversification percentages.

The people that kept buying in the Depression when the Dow was down 89% made money.

Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:21:51 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/18/2009 5:25:01 AM EST
Originally Posted By phatmax:
After october 1929, the Brits and Americans created piles of cash and lowered rates to "rally the market".

Then the market lost ~50% of its value then by April 1930 had regained ~48%. All the while unemployment crept up, more businesses failed and work slowed.

Once the reality became obvious, the markets slid to reflect what was ACTUALLY happening. The market then lost 89% of its value.


The exact same thing is happening now with the ADDITION of huge investment firms that are forcing the markets higher to hide the truth, because folks like Soros and Buffett are in Obama's pocket. or they share pockets, but they are working together to create a false market that does not reflect what is ACTUALLY happening.

Consumer spending continues to fall, manufacturing WORLDWIDE is plummeting, jobs are being lost and at the same time the wolves (Iran, Korea, Russia, China, Venezuela) are circling and arming, while we appease them. This is the 1930s all over again. A commie in the White House and an economy being forced into destruction on PLAN. And danger at our doorstep.

People, you have GOT to think about more then just the DOW number as the end all be all to indicate prosperity. You also have to think more then 1 year out. The next 10-20 years is going to be a rough ride.

I doubt many people in 1929 or 1930 thought that what was happening would not be recovered from until 1954 and the deaths of MILLIONS of people worldwide.

This is more then just about simple markets or money. The world has been placed on a dangerous path. The only thing that evil needs to succeed is for good men to sit by and do nothing.


WELL SAID!

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