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Posted: 5/4/2004 6:15:43 PM EDT
...I think we're all in denial. The AWB will not sunset. I have talked to just about EVERYBODY I know that might have a clue. Absolutely no one (cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys, politaically in-the-know folks, etc.) thinks there might even be the slightest chance we will get our folding stocks and flash suppressors come September. This is about the only site where people are convinced that the AWB WILL indeed sunset. Either I am missing something BIG, or we're all in denial and need to come to grips.

I would absolutely love to see the AWB drop, but I don't believe it will.

Please don't flame too hard.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:18:03 PM EDT
No way. It'll never pass the House.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:18:42 PM EDT
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:21:21 PM EDT
Yeah, and all thoes people are so used to their 90 buck glock mags, 1400 buck preban rifles, etc.


Its the class III syndrome all over again


people just trying to protect their "investment"
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:22:13 PM EDT
Two choices, either it sunsets, or the camel's back breaks. I'm betting on the former.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:26:08 PM EDT

cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys


because they don't want it to set.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:26:29 PM EDT
Why would you ask a cop about the AWB???

That's like asking me about computer chips and processors.

Just because I can use one, doesn't make me an expert on all facets of them including legal issues.

<­BR>

The above is not intended as a slight against LEO, at all. It's just that overall, most cops are big into guns.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:32:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/4/2004 6:33:00 PM EDT by neilfj]
Ranked according to knowledge of the AWB...lowest to highest..

Gun Show Guys
Gun Store Guys
politicians
Cops/Feds - Tie
Rock
Tree
Lawn Ornament
Hamster
Gerbil
Dog

A­s Aimless said, there is very little time remaining. Even with the summer break coming up, everyone is concentrating on the Presidental Election, House and Senate elections and the conventions. There is probably less than days available for the gov. to do anything about getting a new AWB in place. It might be back in November, once the elections are done and everyone gets back to Washington, but odds are slim (and getting slimmer every day) that anything will happen by Sept.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:32:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Offspring:

cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys


because they don't want it to set.



Exactly

Besides what insider info do these guys claim to have? How does their occupation provide them with more insight than the rest of us?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:33:33 PM EDT
I have a few cops/feds that I like to go shooting with and yes-they're VERY into guns-especially preban units-they hate the stupid AWB rules as much as I do. I hopw you all are right-I'm dyin' to build me a Commando and by a folding stock AK-74.

What are some reasons (in detail) as to why you think the AWB will drop?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:37:46 PM EDT
If the AWB doesn't sunset, I think GWB will lose the election. I will vote Libetarian rather than support a gun grabber.

Then again you may be right, GWB did ban Norinco, and his pappy also took our gun rights.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:38:55 PM EDT
It has all been laid out for you. It will never pass the current House.

Cops, gun store owners, feds, and gun SHOW people especially, have no inside info that the rest of us would not be privy to.

Most of us here probably keep up with the goings on in Congress more than any of those.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:40:20 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:
If the AWB doesn't sunset, I think GWB will lose the election. I will vote Libetarian rather than support a gun grabber.

Then again you may be right, GWB did ban Norinco, and his pappy also took our gun rights.



Norinco got their dick in a wringer for being sneaky bastards. It's not just their guns, it's a lot of other things too.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:40:54 PM EDT
It's getting near the time when nothing will resurrect the AWB.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:45:48 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Brahmzy:

What are some reasons (in detail) as to why you think the AWB will drop?



You mean other than they tried to pass an extension a month ago in the Senate and it failed miserably?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:46:25 PM EDT
Why worry?

Its gone
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:49:53 PM EDT
I base my thoughts on the fact that Feinstein is not raising more of a fuss about this than she has. Neither is Schumer. I think that to be effective support for Kerry they need to back off the AWB. Some more intelligent members of the Dem party realize that anti-gun is not a winner as an election issue. They will come back to it if they get the chance, when it is not a wedge issue.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:54:53 PM EDT
So if it does end, is there going to be a 'window' of time in which we will see Asenal, Atlantic, ORF, Bushy, DPMS and others building 'real' guns? What if this window is only 'til November as someone said?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:56:43 PM EDT
Don't flame to hard?

Hah. Fat chance.


I will not indulge in any personal attacks, as that's not my way and it's not allowable here in any event, but I can assure you, the people you've been talking to have NO clue and were talking out their asses. It's that simple.

Do you know how Congress works?

Fact: Any given bill can only be introduced ONCE in a legislative (calendar) year. A bill achieving the same purpose as one that was previously voted down is NOT allowed in that year.

Feinstein's AW ban extension amendment was attached to a bill that was voted down, therefore it is NOT possible for THAT bill, or one accomplishing the same result, to be introduced again during this year.

That's that. They played, they lost, we won. End of story.


Going further than necessary....if a bill were to be introduced to extend the ban, it MIGHT pass the Senate, but would it pass in the House?

No freaking way. Zip, zero, nada chance.

Again, do you know how Congress works?

If a bill doesn't pass BOTH Houses (Senate and House of Representatives) of Congress, it can NOT become law. It's not an either/or situation for a bill, it's a BOTH TOGETHER situation.

It's all but totally impossible for such a bill to pass in the House, which means it's all but impossible for such a bill to pass.


Those are the facts, Jack.

Start hanging out with smarter people. Clearly the ones you've been talking to are as dumb as rocks, at least when it comes to the realities surrounding the CERTAIN sunset of the 1994 assault weapons ban.

CJ
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 6:59:49 PM EDT
Uhhh, the AWB WILL sunset.
The only question is: Does Congress think assault weapons are a significant enough threat to pass more legislation, even after all the high profile studies saying that the AWB did not affect crime one bit, as well as the admission that it isn't even supposed to address crime?
The AWB will sunset. However, it is quite unlikely that it will even come up on the floor again. The reps don't want to keep farting around with such a worthless concept.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:01:22 PM EDT
It's simple.

Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:02:20 PM EDT
The only way it might get thru is attached to a spending/budget type bill "that has to be passed to keep the government running" or some such bullshit.
Slim Chance of such, but I am enough of a pessimist to be guarded.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:03:51 PM EDT
Parts of the patriot act are set to expire, right?

When does that occur?


AWB renewal attachment opportunity?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:04:05 PM EDT
I think it'll be a big window. Years at the least. Bush is likely to win re-election and the Republicans are expected to gain seats in Congress (both good news for gun owners). I don't think there's much to worry about unless the Dems retake either Congress or the White House.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:06:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/4/2004 7:06:51 PM EDT by Tanker06]

Originally Posted By neilfj:
Ranked according to knowledge of the AWB...lowest to highest..

Gun Show Guys
Gun Store Guys
politicians
Cops/Feds - Tie
Rock
Tree
Lawn Ornament
Hamster
Gerbil
Dog



My schnauzer says that she's highly offended by the above, inferring that a
politician is smarter than she, or the snacks (Hamster/Gerbil combo)....
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:06:39 PM EDT
Yep, I'm in denial and I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:09:08 PM EDT

Originally Posted By neilfj:
Ranked according to knowledge of the AWB...lowest to highest..

Gun Show Guys
Gun Store Guys
politicians
Cops/Feds - Tie
Rock
Tree
Lawn Ornament
Hamster
Gerbil
Dog



Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:10:48 PM EDT
For those that keep harping on it being attached to other bills, what part of cmjohnson's post did you not understand?
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:17:53 PM EDT
Don't feed the .

This guy just wants to see a flaming folder.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:28:31 PM EDT
Hey 762, I am not a troll, just mis-informed I guess. No reason to bash me personally.
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:32:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By cmjohnson:
Don't flame to hard?

Hah. Fat chance.


I will not indulge in any personal attacks, as that's not my way and it's not allowable here in any event, but I can assure you, the people you've been talking to have NO clue and were talking out their asses. It's that simple.

Do you know how Congress works?

Fact: Any given bill can only be introduced ONCE in a legislative (calendar) year. A bill achieving the same purpose as one that was previously voted down is NOT allowed in that year.

Feinstein's AW ban extension amendment was attached to a bill that was voted down, therefore it is NOT possible for THAT bill, or one accomplishing the same result, to be introduced again during this year.

That's that. They played, they lost, we won. End of story.


Going further than necessary....if a bill were to be introduced to extend the ban, it MIGHT pass the Senate, but would it pass in the House?

No freaking way. Zip, zero, nada chance.

Again, do you know how Congress works?

If a bill doesn't pass BOTH Houses (Senate and House of Representatives) of Congress, it can NOT become law. It's not an either/or situation for a bill, it's a BOTH TOGETHER situation.

It's all but totally impossible for such a bill to pass in the House, which means it's all but impossible for such a bill to pass.


Those are the facts, Jack.

Start hanging out with smarter people. Clearly the ones you've been talking to are as dumb as rocks, at least when it comes to the realities surrounding the CERTAIN sunset of the 1994 assault weapons ban.

CJ


Not entirely true, and why is it there is no like to the "once" per year law or admin rule?

Two slightly different bills can go to a final committe, and the differences worked out with a final, identical bill being passed.

I'd be all but convinced if someone could back up that "once per year" thing with a rule of law....
Link Posted: 5/4/2004 7:33:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/4/2004 7:34:36 PM EDT by mcgredo]
The odds are pretty good it will expire. The Democrats don't want gun control as an issue in the presidential election. While it's popular with their base, It plays badly in swing states. They probably lost several states (like West Virginia) in the last election because of gun control. And all we need to get our way is benign neglect. on the part of our opponents.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 6:20:25 AM EDT

Originally Posted By raven:
No way. It'll never pass the House.



I didn't think it had to pass anything. Unless you mean pass in the "dying" sense.

No doubt it's on the top of some of the key gun grabbing liberals list of things to fuck up even more, and I have my doubts it'll sunset as well, but they are going to have to really sneak it in under the radar or attach to a piece of legislation that simply can be turned down. I think they were testing the water with S659... that was the litmus test for their maneuvering a new AWB into the books. The pro gunners have set the range limits and as long the the gun grabber stay within those limits they'll probably get it passed.

Hope is a powerful emotion, but it doesn't stop those pens from moving across the table when it's time to keep the jack boot on our necks.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 6:44:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/5/2004 6:44:57 AM EDT by NewbHunter]

Originally Posted By neilfj:
Ranked according to knowledge of the AWB...lowest to highest..

Democrats
Gun Show Guys
Gun Store Guys
all other politicians
Cops/Feds - Tie
Rock
Tree
Lawn Ornament
Hamster
Gerbil
Dog

A­s Aimless said, there is very little time remaining. Even with the summer break coming up, everyone is concentrating on the Presidental Election, House and Senate elections and the conventions. There is probably less than days available for the gov. to do anything about getting a new AWB in place. It might be back in November, once the elections are done and everyone gets back to Washington, but odds are slim (and getting slimmer every day) that anything will happen by Sept.



Fixed it for you.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 7:03:22 AM EDT
So duz dat meen ifn da 'salt 'rafle ban 'spires.Kin we make msheen guns 'gin? B'cause Iem a wontin onea dem.Will we be aba to git demdar H and K 'salt 'rafles fer $250.00 'gin?I be a wontin onea dem 'salt rafles an ya kun bie 'em fer kupple hunnert dollaha.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 7:10:42 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brahmzy:
...I think we're all in denial. The AWB will not sunset. I have talked to just about EVERYBODY I know that might have a clue. Absolutely no one (cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys, politaically in-the-know folks, etc.) thinks there might even be the slightest chance we will get our folding stocks and flash suppressors come September. This is about the only site where people are convinced that the AWB WILL indeed sunset. Either I am missing something BIG, or we're all in denial and need to come to grips.

I would absolutely love to see the AWB drop, but I don't believe it will.

Please don't flame too hard.



Dude most of the poeple you talked to DON'T have a clue. Most cops couldn't even tell you the differeance between a pre and post ban(unless they are gun nuts like us). Hell most politicians couldn't tell you the difference. Gun show guys? Yah thats good one. Most gun stores I'm sure wouldn't want the ban to end. I've read a couple stories about gun shop owners saying they want to see the ban stay. And politicaly in the know people, unless they work of a politician don;t really know shit.

It;s ok if you want to believe that it won't sunset. Me I prefer to try and be positive and continue to get on my elected officials to make sure they know what I think. My House rep doesn't support the renewal of the AWB either does one of my two senators. "Mr. CFR" himself Russ Feingold. THe only senator in this state that does suporrt it is "nobodys senator but his own" Herb Kohl.

Link Posted: 5/5/2004 7:22:11 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brahmzy:
...I think we're all in denial. The AWB will not sunset. I have talked to just about EVERYBODY I know that might have a clue. Absolutely no one (cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys, politaically in-the-know folks, etc.) thinks there might even be the slightest chance we will get our folding stocks and flash suppressors come September. This is about the only site where people are convinced that the AWB WILL indeed sunset. Either I am missing something BIG, or we're all in denial and need to come to grips.

I would absolutely love to see the AWB drop, but I don't believe it will.

Please don't flame too hard.



Roll me one out of your bag.

If introduced today, the bill won't have time to make it to President Bush's desk.

I'm stocking up on, well, stuff.

In the spirit of imbroglio, peace be with you.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 7:33:23 AM EDT
I may be superstitious, but I think that renewal of the AWB would mean that Bush would lose the presidency. Dole voted anti-gun and lost. If Bush votes anti-gun I think that he will lose too.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 7:39:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/5/2004 7:40:28 AM EDT by uns69]

Originally Posted By Brahmzy:
...I think we're all in denial. The AWB will not sunset. I have talked to just about EVERYBODY I know that might have a clue. Absolutely no one (cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys, politaically in-the-know folks, etc.) thinks there might even be the slightest chance we will get our folding stocks and flash suppressors come September. This is about the only site where people are convinced that the AWB WILL indeed sunset. Either I am missing something BIG, or we're all in denial and need to come to grips.

I would absolutely love to see the AWB drop, but I don't believe it will.

Please don't flame too hard.



I have never been to Egypt [[ [[[
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 8:08:18 AM EDT
As a standalone bill, the AWB is dead.

I am encouraged that the NRA really stood up for us when it came time to vote down the Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 8:21:24 AM EDT
The question as to whether the ban will sunset has already been answered...in the Ban itself in 1994! The AWB had a planned shelf life of 10 years and that is all. This AWB has to expire 10 years to the day from it's inception (IIRC Sept 13, 2004).

To make your question accurate, you would need to ask what the chances are that another AWB would be able to be passed into law and take the expiring AWB's place. The Democrats and MMM want a tougher AWB to take it's place, some reports indicate that a few Republicans want a lesser AWB in place while the concensus is that the majority of our current elected Congressmen and women want no new AWB. This concensus is supported by the resounding defeat of the add-on Feinstein sponsored ammendment to the proposed legislation.
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 8:32:44 AM EDT
Seriously...My biggest fear is that another ban will take the place of the AWB. I doubt it will happen, but anything is possible. I just hope the politicians finally see that we need to enforce existing laws and stop trying to find the answers in new idiotic laws that affect law abiding citizens
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 8:54:34 AM EDT
Gun Store Guy: "Nope, the ban isn't going to sunset, if anything it'll get expanded, so you better buy this Bushmaster now!"

Gun Show Guy: "Nope, the ban isn't going to sunset, so you better buy this pre-ban rifle now!"

Cop: "You made me put down my donut for that?"

Fed: "Is that thing legal?"

Politician: "Gun controll? I'm up for re-election this year!"
Link Posted: 5/5/2004 10:26:38 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Brahmzy:
I have talked to just about EVERYBODY I know that might have a clue.





Absolutely no one (cops, feds, gun shows guys, gun store guys, politaically in-the-know folks, etc.)



So this is your example of people who might have a clue? Forget about starting your own political commentary website.
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