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Posted: 5/26/2022 6:09:26 PM EDT
[#1]
Dead cat bounce.
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Posted: 5/26/2022 6:13:49 PM EDT
[#2]
Bought more today -
Amazon Ford Tilray Canopy Growth Camping World |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 6:14:40 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bought more today - Amazon Ford Tilray Canopy Growth Camping World You'll get more chances to buy at a lower rate soon. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:25:47 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You'll get more chances to buy at a lower rate soon. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Bought more today - Amazon Ford Tilray Canopy Growth Camping World You'll get more chances to buy at a lower rate soon. And where are you getting the cash to buy? This is when I make my most money. So yummy! Lower please! I’m fucking giddy at the prices. Flat out giddy. I’m a little cash poor (fuck the irs). |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:34:11 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I predict that it will keep going up and down. QFT |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:37:33 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When we get to new all times highs, which WILL happen you made 20% Average bear is like 11 months. So in a year or two you can make 20% The longest bear of record is only 2.8 years, the Great Depression. Now is when you make the most money. Risk=reward. Emotions=losing. It’s just math. Math has no emotion. It just is. Just look at the last few bear mkts for example of just how much much money can be made if you remove emotion and just keep buying. Jesus man, you just need to quit for awhile, it's actually getting embarrassing... |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:39:17 PM EDT
[#7]
I was wondering too. I kinda think it will start dropping again after the June fed meeting when they likely raise rates again but who knows. Anything is possible.
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:40:43 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s amazing to see Apple and Googl with ~ 20 P/E’s I’m making buys that would make the Spidey proud indeed. FB with a P/E of 14? I had to buy a few thou, just in case the Metroverse bet pays off. Yes, I hate all of them, but I’ve decided to never bet against people’s stupidity. Now, I’m betting On it! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I anticipate in 10 years you’ll be very happy you bought the fuck out of these prices. Remember bear markets are very short lived and the bull returns extremely fast. And we’re not even in bear. Tech is on sale bigly. It’s amazing to see Apple and Googl with ~ 20 P/E’s I’m making buys that would make the Spidey proud indeed. FB with a P/E of 14? I had to buy a few thou, just in case the Metroverse bet pays off. Yes, I hate all of them, but I’ve decided to never bet against people’s stupidity. Now, I’m betting On it! I bought into google mostly around 2400-2500 to get in before the split. I wish I had waited. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:40:51 PM EDT
[#9]
lol number go down till politicians are expelled
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:41:53 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As a long term permabull I kinda look at it like this: In high volatility the bears can make a ton of money quickly, but you can’t make that without increased risk In bear the long term bulls still make money, likely not nearly as much, but with less risk Dollar cost averaging is NOT to maximize returns. It smooths out risk. This is where I don’t like periodic investing being called “DCA”, they are different. It’s a cashflow mgmt thing Which is why I opened a SBLOC as a cash flow buffer. Also have a HELOC. These allow me to drain cash when we see this. Now is when you make the most money. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Lots of bears here. Which is fine. Bears make money, too. Just last week, I bought some AAPL puts for a daytrade. Made a little less than 25% that day. What are you guys buying to take advantage of your bearish predictions? Puts? Shorts? What's your strategy? I short index futures. For a "predication" most people would be better off with puts. Predicting the market is also a great way to give away money. As a long term permabull I kinda look at it like this: In high volatility the bears can make a ton of money quickly, but you can’t make that without increased risk In bear the long term bulls still make money, likely not nearly as much, but with less risk Dollar cost averaging is NOT to maximize returns. It smooths out risk. This is where I don’t like periodic investing being called “DCA”, they are different. It’s a cashflow mgmt thing Which is why I opened a SBLOC as a cash flow buffer. Also have a HELOC. These allow me to drain cash when we see this. Now is when you make the most money. How are the bulls making money during bear ? Unless you might they'll be making money in the long term future by holding. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:44:44 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And where are you getting the cash to buy? This is when I make my most money. So yummy! Lower please! I’m fucking giddy at the prices. Flat out giddy. I’m a little cash poor (fuck the irs). What's you're rate of return this year? 
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Posted: 5/26/2022 7:53:06 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The economy is a mess, both domestically and overseas. We have the makings of WW3 unfolding and an administration with a dementia patient as the figurehead and run by avowed Marxists. So you tell me. Lol so true |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:01:34 PM EDT
[#13]
We shall see. I believe this is a bear market rally. Lots of indices and stocks will try to climb back to their 50 or 200 day moving averages, which is typical action for a bear market rally.
We have: 1) At the very least 3 more .50 rate hikes, and probably more after that per the latest fed meeting minutes. Bad for bonds, bad for stocks. 2) Quantitative tightening starting next week I believe. 3) Oil at 114/barrel, with inflation raging 4) Complete scum for politicians quite happy with (3) 5) Consumers running on fumes and as a result companies running out of pricing power = margin compression 6) Layoffs appear to be picking up due to the above, money running dry for unicorns If we werent in what I believe is the early innings of the largest real estate bubble bursting and we didnt have the above conditions I might think some stocks are on sale. Based on the above, I'm looking for opportunities on both the short and long side. Short garbage thats moon shotting with no change in their horrible fundamentals, long commodity based investments on pull backs. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:04:04 PM EDT
[#14]
Another vote for dead cat bounce.
Monetary heroin requires increasing doses to attain the same effect as the previous dose. To get the monetary heroin the Fed goes brrrrrrrrrrrr! People who aren't into the asset class that the Fed favors loses out (hence the rich like Blackrock/Vanguard and other hedge funds and indidivuals do get richer). However, we're reaching point where only the uber rich will survive b/c of inflation. If you think it's single digit you're quaffing the BLS statistics. Why did Congress give itself something like a 20-25% pay raise? This is not capitalism but chrony capitalism. We should have allowed the TBTF fail. We'd would have recovered from it but the delay on exacerbates how it adversely affects society and lengthens the recovery. End los federales, before los federales ends you. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:10:07 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What's you're rate of return this year? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And where are you getting the cash to buy? This is when I make my most money. So yummy! Lower please! I’m fucking giddy at the prices. Flat out giddy. I’m a little cash poor (fuck the irs). What's you're rate of return this year? I give zero fucks about this year. I do however give much fucks about 10 year. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:11:35 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How are the bulls making money during bear ? Unless you might they'll be making money in the long term future by holding. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Lots of bears here. Which is fine. Bears make money, too. Just last week, I bought some AAPL puts for a daytrade. Made a little less than 25% that day. What are you guys buying to take advantage of your bearish predictions? Puts? Shorts? What's your strategy? I short index futures. For a "predication" most people would be better off with puts. Predicting the market is also a great way to give away money. As a long term permabull I kinda look at it like this: In high volatility the bears can make a ton of money quickly, but you can’t make that without increased risk In bear the long term bulls still make money, likely not nearly as much, but with less risk Dollar cost averaging is NOT to maximize returns. It smooths out risk. This is where I don’t like periodic investing being called “DCA”, they are different. It’s a cashflow mgmt thing Which is why I opened a SBLOC as a cash flow buffer. Also have a HELOC. These allow me to drain cash when we see this. Now is when you make the most money. How are the bulls making money during bear ? Unless you might they'll be making money in the long term future by holding. That’s the entire point. I think in 10-20 year chunks. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:16:05 PM EDT
[#17]
Grabbed Target at a PE of something like 15.
More VOO. SCHD on a very slight sale. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:17:24 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I predict that it will keep going up and down. I will predict that it will go up and down with up about 7% in an average year. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:17:29 PM EDT
[#19]
There’s too much going on to predict it.
If China keeps locking down for covid19 5 years from now, our inflation will never go away and hence high interest rates. If China starts war with Taiwan, stocks No like. Then again, it could be over now. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 8:19:38 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will predict that it will go up and down with up about 7% in an average year. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I predict that it will keep going up and down. I will predict that it will go up and down with up about 7% in an average year. It’s actually 10%. 7% is conservative and inflation adjusted for planning purposes. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:53:20 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I bought TQQQ and SOXL, which is a bull trade. Anybody buy SQQQ, which is what to buy if you think we are heading down? I bought SQQQ last week, held it a couple days, and sold for a 24% profit. I started nibbling again on it again today. <$50 has my interest. Also picked up some AAPL, MSFT, & COST. planning on buying more if they decrease. I don't feel we hit bottom yet. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:06:35 PM EDT
[#22]
Anyone who evaluates the current economic conditions and comes out with a positive assessment isn't worth listening to. There may be small upswings here and there, but the current combination of soaring prices, supply and worker shortages, and increasing interest rates following record home prices is a recipe for meltdown. The economy's nuts are in a vice, and if diesel fuel goes up another dollar a gallon that's three more turns on the handle
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:10:33 PM EDT
[#23]
I'm not convinced we've found bottom.
I'm having fun with my fuck around and find out account though. Went all in on NVDA for today's ride. 
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:11:43 PM EDT
[#24]
Put money in every month. Don’t try to time the market.
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:30:28 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Anyone who evaluates the current economic conditions and comes out with a positive assessment isn't worth listening to. There may be small upswings here and there, but the current combination of soaring prices, supply and worker shortages, and increasing interest rates following record home prices is a recipe for meltdown. The economy's nuts are in a vice, and if diesel fuel goes up another dollar a gallon that's three more turns on the handle Ok - So how are you trading your bearish conviction. If your assessment is correct, you must be positioning yourself to profit on the next downswing. Please share your trade philosophy, along with a recent position or two. I would like to see how your trades play out. I've already posted my purchase of TQQQ and SOXL, and my reasoning. Others can learn from my trades whether they win or lose. Please let us learn from your actual trades. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 7:23:07 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Put money in every month. Don’t try to time the market. Are you retired or still working? |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 9:45:34 AM EDT
[#27]
So far this Friday morning the bulls are still in control. Will be interesting to see if the sellers
show up later. Yesterday, the S&P 500 was up 2% and the Nasdaq 2.68%. Volume wasn't spectacular though. I'm watching the 4200 level on the S&P, that will be telling, in my opinion. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 9:47:46 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Are you retired or still working? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Put money in every month. Don’t try to time the market. Are you retired or still working? Semi-retired. Working three days a week. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 1:48:03 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s actually 10%. 7% is conservative and inflation adjusted for planning purposes. The question is does that rule still hold true. What is the average return including inflation now? That being said, nothing really can match that average return rate. Its just a question if even that is out pacing inflation now. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 2:15:14 PM EDT
[#30]
here's my prediction:
near term, few weeks, rally continues with vigor, as most people believe the worst is over and remaining pain is factored into the price, inflation will be kept in check. late june, we will get more data that will be worse than anticipated, and market will decline again. then the real pain starts and we get a major correction. as i understand it, at the moment - savings is declining fairly rapidly - credit card usage is going up - consumer sentiment is lowest in 10 years i assume that's factored in, but mostly, i think the inflation and food shortages in second half of year are what's going to drive the market down. but i think this rally has a week or two of legs also, "sell in May and go away" (in response to the request above for positions, my trading account is up 23% YTD. My IRA is flat because I've been in cash and land since Nov. My only position now is tsla 19AUG 750 calls which i bought (18MAY) on the way down when the stock was about $700. It dropped to $630 or so, then rebounded to $752 at the moment, so I'm actually in the money. Could go anywhere now though, but i plan to hold a while) |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 2:15:23 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The question is does that rule still hold true. What is the average return including inflation now? That being said, nothing really can match that average return rate. Its just a question if even that is out pacing inflation now. I'm deep in oil, sold off retail and 20% cash. up $68K for the year. 
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Posted: 5/27/2022 2:29:06 PM EDT
[#32]
Expect a big dip on Monday or Tuesday.
People are playing the uncertainty and will be selling short. Had you bought $10,000 in Tesla on Tuesday, you would have made 15% selling today. That's big money for the players that dump millions and sell. Cathie Woods, the bitch herself, is snapping up Tesla (16m), Zoom and Nvidia(44m). |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 2:34:23 PM EDT
[#33]
odds of a dip monday are near zero.
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Posted: 5/27/2022 2:35:48 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: odds of a dip monday are near zero. Ya think? 
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:26:41 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ya think? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: odds of a dip monday are near zero. Ya think? People don’t think market holidays be like they is, but they do |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:33:30 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I predict that it will keep going up and down. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:36:32 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: odds of a dip monday are near zero. Please please please somebody bet him a case of Pmags that is not to be construed as a bet of any kind |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:41:58 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Expect a big dip on Monday or Tuesday. People are playing the uncertainty and will be selling short. Had you bought $10,000 in Tesla on Tuesday, you would have made 15% selling today. That's big money for the players that dump millions and sell. Cathie Woods, the bitch herself, is snapping up Tesla (16m), Zoom and Nvidia(44m). I think Cathie Woods is a pretty reliable contrarian indicator. Didn't she get her 'Guru' status by having like one year of outperformance and all the rest are total flops? Her precious ARKK is down 50% so far this year. I would be inclined to short anything she buys. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:43:42 PM EDT
[#39]
Shorting Cathy is popular enough there’s an easy vehicle to do so. SARK
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:46:53 PM EDT
[#40]
This week was the calm before the storm I think.
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Posted: 5/27/2022 3:52:41 PM EDT
[#41]
The 61.8 line is the percentage of a likely reversal. The last time it hit that line was when the current down trend started. The green line below that was soft support, and it bounced off of it giving us the current rally.
My amature WAG says 33150 is resistance. If it breaks that, it'll run up to 33900 to 34000 where it'll meet firm resistance again. If it stays above 33500, it might be the begining of an upturn. Edit to adjust numbers.  Attached FileThis pic is from last week.  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 4:15:53 PM EDT
[#42]
Another day for the bulls. S&P up 2.5% and Nasdaq over 3.
I was tempted to sell my TQQQ and SOXL, but was looking for a sharp up spike to sell. Didn't get it, instead they hugged the 20MA in an orderly uptrend pretty much all day. Both are up about 25% from my entry, but look like they can go more. However, we now have a 3 day weekend. Who knows what kind of market shaking news will happen. Another however, this is almost June, the election is November. That's not a lot of time for the democrats to spin up a lot of much needed good economic news. I'm expecting a lot of pressure to have positive economic news dominating the headlines. If that's the case, the bulls may stay in control for awhile. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 4:27:51 PM EDT
[#43]
Best week since November 2020. Nice.
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Posted: 5/27/2022 4:35:38 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s actually 10%. 7% is conservative and inflation adjusted for planning purposes. I use 4% for my planning purposes. I don't want to be caught short. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 4:38:48 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I use 4% for my planning purposes. I don't want to be caught short. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It’s actually 10%. 7% is conservative and inflation adjusted for planning purposes. I use 4% for my planning purposes. I don't want to be caught short. 4% withdrawl is a “sate” conservative estimate that includes inflation. That’s withdrawl rate, not growth. I was talking historical returns being 10% and when adjust for inflation turns out a little higher than 7%. It can be higher depending on which 30 year window you choose. That’s why 7% is conservative, adjusted for inflation. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 4:45:57 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Best week since November 2020. Nice. Not really. A bunch of smaller ups are preferable and more likely to indicate a longer up trend. One big quick up week means it’s prob headed back down soon. Most of the markets biggest up days are in bear markets. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 5:26:43 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not really. A bunch of smaller ups are preferable and more likely to indicate a longer up trend. One big quick up week means it’s prob headed back down soon. Most of the markets biggest up days are in bear markets. From your posts, I'm kinda thinking you might be a real trader with a lot of experience. If so, do you have any expertise in the FAANG stocks. (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) I follow FNGU, which is the leveraged ETF for the FAANGs. FNGU closed today at 9.72. It's recent high was 50.05, which suggests a lot of profit potential in a recovery. I confess to being a dunce when it comes to these particular tech stocks. I'm not much of a user of any of them. I'm wondering if they are more of a 'fad', or if they really have value and a high likelihood of resuming their market leadership. Do you have any thoughts regarding this? |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 6:26:07 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not really. A bunch of smaller ups are preferable and more likely to indicate a longer up trend. One big quick up week means it’s prob headed back down soon. Most of the markets biggest up days are in bear markets. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Best week since November 2020. Nice. Not really. A bunch of smaller ups are preferable and more likely to indicate a longer up trend. One big quick up week means it’s prob headed back down soon. Most of the markets biggest up days are in bear markets. The last point is extremely true. Market comes out of bear real fucking quick. Like days quick. But sp500 isn’t in bear. Not since March 2020. Just. Keep. Buying. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 6:36:07 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From your posts, I'm kinda thinking you might be a real trader with a lot of experience. If so, do you have any expertise in the FAANG stocks. (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) I follow FNGU, which is the leveraged ETF for the FAANGs. FNGU closed today at 9.72. It's recent high was 50.05, which suggests a lot of profit potential in a recovery. I confess to being a dunce when it comes to these particular tech stocks. I'm not much of a user of any of them. I'm wondering if they are more of a 'fad', or if they really have value and a high likelihood of resuming their market leadership. Do you have any thoughts regarding this? I was a broker during the original dot com boom when stuff like yahoo and uunet and other early techs were doing their thing. I quit when commissions dropped from hundreds of dollars per trade to $10 per trade. I’m also a CCIE and worked for ibm during the dotcom crash when it was a fortune 10 company. I still work for a big tech company but try to trade crude (CL) and S&P500 (ES) futures and tech stock options about an hour per day at the open if work doesn’t interfere. For futures im a retracement trader. For options I’m a momentum trader, though for several years I did my own strategy I called double long theta. I’ve been an amateur for 20 years and my opinions aren’t worth more than anyone else’s. That said, my opinion is Apple Amazon and Google are legit blue chips that will prob still be around after I’m dead. FB and Netflix prob won’t. I called them blue chips because I think they’re past their massive growth phase and will soon be paying big dividends to drive their stock prices. The market clearly believes they’re not growing much which is why they’re plummeting (and fed raising rates). My guess is they’ll prob bounce back some. But I doubt they get anywhere near their previous high anytime soon. And I personally wouldn’t want to invest in the bundle. Also I wouldn’t do highly leveraged stuff with anything other than play money you expect to lose |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 6:37:37 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Best week since November 2020. Nice. How many weeks have we been down now? I mean, this rally was either going to happen or history was going to be made in real time |
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