It depends on what caliber you're talking about. To a certain extent, even the price of new factory mil calibers is driven by the low end market - the cheap steel cased imports and surplus. The surplus market is always somewhat fickle - it's here in huge quantities and gone - and increased UN control of small arms and ammo has affected its availability, even it someone is dumping a ton, they might be destroying it vs. selling now. I don't think we'll be seeing surplus 5.56 for $.10/round anymore (remember those huge 4500? round plastic tubs of SB?), 7.62x51 for $0.15/round (outside of the above, I think most of it is probably already gone), or 8mm for $0.08/round (again, probably mostly gone). If Barry stops imports, we're double-f'ed, as that will completely cut off not only foreign surplus, but wolf, etc.
We might, however, see reloading components drop to a more sane level, and be able to get, say, our value packs of WWB 9mm for <$19/box at wallyworld again, though.