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Posted: 12/28/2002 6:22:07 PM EST
I've been doing a bit of reading about what many fear will happen if we go to war with Iraq: a North Korean invasion of the South. Below is a long, but very detailed speculative plan about how such an event would unfold: [URL=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027-1.htm]Phase 1 - DPRK Attack[/URL] [URL=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027-2.htm]Phase 2 - ROK Defense[/URL] [URL=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027-3.htm]Phase 3 - US Counterattack[/URL] Thoughts? -kill-9
Link Posted: 12/28/2002 8:07:03 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/28/2002 8:11:53 PM EST by Adam_White]
I have to warn you that most of us with any real knowledge on the subject will not be discussing it here. That said, the US and ROK run exercises - using the most advanced computer simulations technologies available and incorporating the latest classified intel and other info - year after year. These are all based on the rough outline provided in your links. The actual OPLAN (OPLAN 5027-98) has much more detail - actual units, locations, etc, but is classified. Each simulation we fight goes a little different, but I like to think we learn something more each time. We've been preparing for this since 1952. Two years ago I actually had the pleasure of listening to the governor of my curent province give a speech on re-unification. He lamented on the fact that many in the young generation seemed to desire re-unification even if it was under Communist rule. He made a great comment that there would only be one way the communists would unify the Korean Peninsula - that would be if the South capitulated. The other two scenarios - either the north surrendering (ala E. Germany) or the North attacking again - would also lead to re-unification - but in this case it would be under ROK rule. He made me smile. He got the crowd pretty pumped up too. Adam
Link Posted: 12/28/2002 8:34:35 PM EST
I'm calling bullshit. It's good intel, it's just 2 years old. Check the bibliography.
Link Posted: 12/28/2002 8:52:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/29/2002 2:48:56 AM EST by Adam_White]
Originally Posted By NSFJojo: I'm calling bullshit. It's good intel, it's just 2 years old. Check the bibliography.
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Uhh... The plans don't change here that often. Heck, our current war plan is 4 years old. Of course, I'm sure there are staff guys well above me who have already adjusted for different units / time scales and who do so continuously. That being said, the [i]unclassified[/i] details in those links are as valid now as ever. There are no secrets in that regard. Our plan for some time - should the North Koreans attack again - has been just as described. That is still our plan. We have no plan to just re-establish the ROK at its current boundaries. The war was never finished - but if the North decided to re-initiate force, we will damn sure finish it this time.
Link Posted: 12/28/2002 8:58:40 PM EST
kill-9: Also, since you seem interested: There is more to the plan than that. There is also a mission to evacuate the JSA, a huge counterfire mission that our artillery guys will be involved in as the rest of us transition to out wartime locations, and a huge operation to remove US noncombatants from the theater. It's really all quite detailed. USFK is like a football team that has been rehearsing the same plays for 50 years now. The players may keep changing, but the playbook does not.
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 4:17:28 AM EST
Thanks for the info, Adam. btw, what's the JSA? -kill-9
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 4:42:05 AM EST
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 4:43:07 AM EST
Originally Posted By NSFJojo: I'm calling bullshit. It's good intel, it's just 2 years old. Check the bibliography.
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When I was there in the early 90's it was pretty much the plan. It doesn't change all that much. Most people don't understand the way the military ACTUALLY plans things. We had planned "Plan Orange" in teh 1920's for a war with Japan for control fo the Pacific. We had planned in the 1920's for an invasion of Panama (and used the same plan for Operation Just Cause). We had been rehearsing the Gulf War physically for 15 years that I know of BEFORE we had to execute the plan for real. We had planned and rehearsed WWIII in Europe, and that plan never changed in the ten years I spent in the Army. We just never had to execute it. Heck, the current Iraq operation has been rehearsed since the end of the last Gulf War, and that's about ten year's of practice. We've been training and rehearsing for the next Korean War for fifty years. Alot of people are acting like this is something brand new or some great unkown threat that we have to scramble to meet. The only reason they think this way is because to most of the sheeple it is a geat unkown. The US media doesn't bother reporting anything that doesn't sell airtime or copy. We're FAR better prepared for the next Korean War than we ever were for the Gulf War. As for detail, obviously those oplans that are linked are just unclassified general forms of what is going to happen. Ours were VERY detailed, and our intel was VERY up to date. So detailed and up to date that I'm not going to discuss it here, and that was a decade ago. I'm not making it out to be a cakewalk. I've been there, and there's going to be a whole lotta dead GIs if the SHTF there. The US has gotten used to low body count wars, and that may be a problem for us in the future if we really have to fight a hard won war. But if the North Koreans try to shoot their way out of their current problems, they aren't going to make it. Additionally, all this posturing, provoking, etc is NOTHING NEW! This is business as usual with them. When you think about Korea, don't think like an American, think like an Asian. Thinking like Americans when dealing with Asians is what gave us Vietnam. Ross
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 5:33:39 AM EST
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 6:28:17 AM EST
Note that the plan assumes good weather, allowing us to bring air power into play, it assumes that we will mostly hold the NKPA at the DMZ, and that the ROKs will fight.
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 6:28:54 AM EST
Exactly. The only real value plans have is to estimate the assets needed, and a starting point. Anything else requires the opponent to perform as you want him to. When things start to move, then a decent short term plan is needed. Something about a "Good plan, executed now, is preferable to a perfect plan executed next week." (I guess Patton was too good and to knowledgeable about what really was going on to be allowed to live).
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 7:54:04 AM EST
Originally Posted By Paul: I know that North Korea has no ballastic missle submarines so are we led to believe that they have [b]90[/b] attack "submarine combat vessels? Again I doubt that they have 9 active, modern, and servicable subs let alone 90 attack submarines.
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There's also lots of rumors that North Korea has a domestically-produced T-90 tank variant instead of the many T-55s and T-62s they're known to have. It's probably propaganda put there by the North Koreans to instill "fear" in the "imperialists".
Originally Posted By Sylvan: That seems like a hell of a lot of publically released info. I have fought 5027 a number of times at the various computer exercises in Yong San. I was fairly shocked at the level of detail, though a lot (thankfully) was missing. On the other hand, remember Eisenhower. Before the battle, the plan is everything. Once the battle starts, throw the plan away.
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The details will change when / if war actually breaks out. This way the North Koreans will be waiting at locations for us like Iraq was waiting for that Marine amphibious beach assault during the Gulf "War". [:D]
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 6:54:07 PM EST
Originally Posted By Adam_White: There is also a mission to evacuate the JSA
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What's "the JSA"? -kill-9
Link Posted: 12/29/2002 10:04:11 PM EST
Originally Posted By kill-9:
Originally Posted By Adam_White: There is also a mission to evacuate the JSA
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What's "the JSA"? -kill-9
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Sorry - I have been here too long. JSA is "Joint Security Area" - it is where the peace talks were held between the north and the south - and any future talks will be held. It is also where the famous axe murders occured back in the '70s. We have several troops patrolling up there constantly - they would have to be evacuated quickly since they are extremely vulnerable. There was an excellent movie made a few years back ("JSA") with an incredibly realistic set. If you have access to foreign films and / or have a code-free DVD player I highly recommend it. While the movie is clearly fiction, the background info and setting is extremely accurate and detailed. Adam
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