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Posted: 6/23/2017 11:49:23 AM EST
Thursday on ABC’s “The View,” Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez said the close votes in recent special election losses for the Democratic Party meant if they were to continue taking their margins of losing down by 20 points, they were “going to take 50 seats.”

Perez said, “I was disappointed Tuesday, but this was Newt Gingrich’s old seat. Democrats haven’t won there in 37 years.”

He continued, “All of the seats that have been in play, the congressional seats are beat red districts. You appoint cabinet secretaries from beat red districts, so you don’t lose ground in the House. We lost the Price seat in Atlanta by 24 points in November, and we cut that margin by 20 points. The Kansas seat a few months back, we were supposed to lose that by 30 and lost by single digits. There are 71 congressional districts right now that are more competitive than the Georgia 6th race.”

“We need to take 24 seats to take the House. If you look at our history, the last three times we have had single party control sometimes it was Democrats and sometimes Republicans,” Perez added. “The following midterm election the party out of power won 28 seats. If some of you read Nate Silver, if we keep taking the margins down by 20 points like we have done, we’re going to take 50 seats. You know what, history — past is not always prologue. I don’t come to you today saying I guarantee that, but what I do know is I think our values are spot on.”
View Quote
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2017/06/22/dnc-chair-perez-post-trump-special-election-losses-mean-going-take-50-seats/
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:50:15 AM EST
He's clearly mentally ill.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:50:23 AM EST
Delusional
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:50:42 AM EST
Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:51:34 AM EST
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii­iiiiiiiiiiiiiiight......
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:51:44 AM EST
He's right. The DNC and the MSM should continue the exact same strategy they've been using since 2008 and really show republicans how elections are won!

There's no stopping them this time!
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:52:40 AM EST
Nate Silver.   lol
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:52:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:01:24 PM EST by Mal_means_bad]
Stolen from waterglass:



ETA: articles regarding "ghost candidate" Stooksbury; $0 raised, no social media, no published photograph, no interviews granted:  dailykos  current affairs
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:53:33 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
Stolen from waterglass:

https://i.redd.it/1cecy026355z.png
View Quote
Solid ROI there 
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:54:03 AM EST
Some seats are feasible.

50 seats is too many seats. They'd have to go to the chair store or order online in bulk from Office Depot to get that many.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:54:46 AM EST
Martin Armstrong today:

Despite having Hollywood, Google, Mainstream Media, and countless violent activists, the Democrats still can’t beat Trump. They just do not comprehend what is going on. There have been four congressional special elections this year where Democrats and Republicans have gone head-to-head. The Democrats have lost every one.

Even the Georgia election, which was not a Special election, Mr Ossoff finished first scoring a win. California does not count for it is just too far to the left to matter anymore.
Nevertheless even Georgia’s election result was devastating to Democrats nationwide. Even with all the yelling, screaming, gory plays assassinating Trump to cheers, and Broadway plays stopping to ridicule Republicans in the audience like Hamilton in New York, Democrats should win.

Even with protests, and media coverage that is so anti-Trump who has low approval ratings, according to the media, the Democrats should be able to win something if Trump is really regarded as being toxic. So what’s going on?

When we look at the trend of the Democrats, they have been losing ground since World War II. They have been scoring lower highs and lower lows and this reflects a BEAR MARKET.

This is part of the collapse in socialism coming because they just do not get it. The average person has been losing lifestyle standards ever since.

The Gallup Poll has reported that 44% of Americans believe it is likely that today’s youth will have a better life than their parents. This has declined even since the 2007-2009 in the midst of this “recovery” as they call it. In fact, this is the lowest poll on record for a trend dating back to 1983. We always thought linearly and our children would always have it better than we did. No more!

You just can’t keep raising taxes and yelling about the rich while secretly cutting deals and taking money under the table. Raising taxes on the rich has NEVER lowered anyone else’s taxes or improved the life of the poor even once.

------SNIP----

The French elections saw something astonishing. Le Pen beat every mainstream party – socialist and conservative. Put this is American terms, and imagine an election where the Republican and Democrats cannot even make it to the elections.
That is what happened in France.

Stay tuned. It’s coming to a theater in the USA soon.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:55:08 AM EST
Must be that new math.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:58:27 AM EST
His IQ must be in the low single digits.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:59:18 AM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:00:08 PM EST by snakes19]
All of the special elections have had double digit increases in the percent of votes going to democrats, these are supposedly safe seats so the Republicans were able to endure that swing but if it continues nation wide in 2018 we are fucked. Imagine every election that a Republican won by 10% or less going dem, that is a LOT of flipped seats.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 11:59:21 AM EST
To be perfectly honest some of those races were closer than they should have been. This is why I keep saying we shouldn't get over confident and we need to keep hammering them on social media. 2018 will not be an easy victory and we need to keep redpilling as many average Joes as possible while humiliating the Marxists on social media to further damage their image and prevent them from spreading their bullshit to the ignorant who fall for it.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:01:23 PM EST
People are saying that this is just a repeat of the 2009 special elections where democrats held on, but then got absolutely fucked during the midterms.

  Hope that's not the case. 
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:02:33 PM EST
Disparate impact claim. Those seats should be surrendered in a social justice world to the marginalized and disfranchised. He's pleading.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:02:48 PM EST
He may be wrong but he may be right...those special elections were in traditionally red areas and were won by slim margins. If it's a toss up area or one that's been gerrymandered the fuck out of, we'll be looking at some major losses. Plus, the ongoing incompetence, willful interference, and perpetual petulance of the Rs fighting Trump are so fucking disgusting, a lot of R voters may just stay home.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:04:14 PM EST
He is absolutely 100% correct, and he should continue to believe that line of reasoning.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:06:53 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:11:06 PM EST by Kihn]
The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. They can be used to predict which districts are expected to be competitive in the 2018 elections.[4]

House

There are 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08

There are 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03

There are 20 House seats that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by Donald Trump in 2016: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-01, MN-02, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NV-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, PA-17, and WI-03

There are eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, KS-03, NJ-07, TX-07, and TX-32


https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2018
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:07:58 PM EST
If they do or don't it will have exactly dick to do with 4 special elections. It will depend on turnout.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:08:18 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:12:04 PM EST by Kihn]
Senate

The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.

There are 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

There are 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

There are four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2018
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:08:46 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:08:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:09:41 PM EST by destaccado]
One of the things I learned in a University American government class about 8 years ago is that there's only been four times in history when the party with the executive branch gained seats during the mid-term and it was always because of a major event taking place right before the election -- think September 11 2001 just before the GW Bush mid-terms where Republicans then gained seats.

The party that doesn't have the presidency is always more motivated during the mid-term elections.

Expect Republicans to lose a lot of seats. Whatever isn't accomplished by the end of next year might not get accomplished at all. That's why it's so disappointing watching Republicans sit around and do nothing.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:09:49 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator:
People are saying that this is just a repeat of the 2009 special elections where democrats held on, but then got absolutely fucked during the midterms.

  Hope that's not the case. 
View Quote
Trust me, it's not the case. Democrats have a ton of work to do before they start winning elections again. Transgender rights and combatting white privilege are not winning platforms.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:09:52 PM EST
I wonder where they learned common core math from
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:10:00 PM EST
He's right you know.  Historically the party in power loses big in mid-terms.  If they actually are losing by much less than they were expected to, then that points to them gaining momentum as well.  Now his prediction on 50 seats is just a pipe dream but one that he needs to promote to keep his base motivated.  
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:11:18 PM EST
Bath Salts.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:14:14 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:14:31 PM EST by destaccado]
The best we can hope for out of Trump's Presidency is him being able to further replace Kennedy and RBG on the Supreme Court.

Demographics are destiny and the long-term outlook doesn't look good. They're campaigning on this transgender nonsense now because that's how broke this country is now.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:15:27 PM EST
They don't have that many buses, sorry Charlie you lose again. Winning Bigly is here to stay.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:17:12 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By destaccado:
One of the things I learned in a University American government class about 8 years ago is that there's only been four times in history when the party with the executive branch gained seats during the mid-term and it was always because of a major event taking place right before the election -- think September 11 2001 just before the GW Bush mid-terms where Republicans then gained seats.

The party that doesn't have the presidency is always more motivated during the mid-term elections.

Expect Republicans to lose a lot of seats. Whatever isn't accomplished by the end of next year might not get accomplished at all. That's why it's so disappointing watching Republicans sit around and do nothing.
View Quote
Exactly. Dont get cocky. We need to win big in 2018.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:17:17 PM EST
They're still referencing Nate Silver despite his recent boo-boos. 50 seats is a bit optimistic.

We do have to work hard to get in the driver's seat though, or we will lose some seats.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:17:29 PM EST
Oh good, the Republicans can go back to claiming that the reason they're not getting stuff done and going on the offensive is because they don't have majority in all the bramches of government. It must be so uncomfortable for them right now knowing that they have no excuses for their inaction and impotence, other than their own in-fighting and anti-Trumpness, which doesn't really help them.

I'm ok with general gridlock, but seriously, the Dems keep pushing things Left and then the Repubs hardly do anything to push back to the right and seem to be perfectly content with the status quo and a slow death into socialist crazyness. It's a gross shame.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:18:46 PM EST
Probably same polls that said Hillary will win in a land slide...
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:20:57 PM EST
Given that the DNC is pretty much broke is Soros going to foot the 25 million it will take for each of those House races they think they can win?

Hell, just in the past couple weeks they were trying to get Jerry Springer to run for the Governor of OH because he can fund his own campaign.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:22:55 PM EST
Originally Posted By Htown156:
To be perfectly honest some of those races were closer than they should have been. This is why I keep saying we shouldn't get over confident and we need to keep hammering them on social media.
View Quote
But social media is da debbil !!!!
I've read it countless times right here...............on social media.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:23:35 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:28:11 PM EST by captainpooby]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SWIRE:
He's right you know.  Historically the party in power loses big in mid-terms.  If they actually are losing by much less than they were expected to, then that points to them gaining momentum as well.  Now his prediction on 50 seats is just a pipe dream but one that he needs to promote to keep his base motivated.  
View Quote
With all due respect, I believe we are at a place here where history goes out the window. We are charting completely new territory here with Trump as President and a Democratic party that is melting down and fracturing before our very eyes. The dems no longer have a message, they are just a group of factions brought together by identity politics that were held together by Obama. Now that he's gone, they are falling apart.


The dems have been running their campaigns saying "Vote for us because you are: insert identity here: LGBTQ, black, illegal, etc.. " but they need to be running thier campaigns saying "We are...the party of: insert philosophy here: they have none. "
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:26:15 PM EST
So the Dems losing elections is an indicator they are going to win in the future?

Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:27:06 PM EST
The only way they get close to 50 is if the fucktards running the GOP continue doing absolutely zero about passing any of trumps agenda.


If they spend two years stonewalling trump , I could see a large portion of people who voted for trump staying home.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:28:11 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dsteelman:
The only way they get close to 50 is if the fucktards running the GOP continue doing absolutely zero about passing any of trumps agenda.


If they spend two years stonewalling trump , I could see a large portion of people who voted for trump staying home.
View Quote
And they need to work on messaging, We don't present our side well due to fear of the media.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:28:47 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 1srelluc:
Given that the DNC is pretty much broke is Soros going to foot the 25 million it will take for each of those House races they think they can win?

Hell, just in the past couple weeks they were trying to get Jerry Springer to run for the Governor of OH because he can fund his own campaign.
View Quote
Soros has been funneling money into the VA governors race.

Let's hope our friends in the governments of Hungary and Poland can bleed Soros enough that he stops colluding with US based leftists and influencing our elections.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:31:19 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By webnole78:
Trust me, it's not the case. Democrats have a ton of work to do before they start winning elections again. Transgender rights and combatting white privilege are not winning platforms.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By webnole78:
Originally Posted By ContrarianIndicator:
People are saying that this is just a repeat of the 2009 special elections where democrats held on, but then got absolutely fucked during the midterms.

  Hope that's not the case. 
Trust me, it's not the case. Democrats have a ton of work to do before they start winning elections again. Transgender rights and combatting white privilege are not winning platforms.
This. Obama 2008 was a fluke, not a mandate.
It had nothing to do 'muh long arc of history" (which translates to "liberal governance forever").
War weary nation in the middle of a recession.
A deeply unpopular (R) President.
A media in a bias mode post Katrina that makes sense to us now in the Trump age, but was the high watermark prior.
They ran the first black President, he walked on water to those people.
People voted for him for the first time to be a part of history.
He ran as a moderate (We on this forum knew not to believe him, but guys we're mostly Republican voters, mostly - unless you're okay with losing an election cause a guy said the Pword)
People believed he was a moderate.
Remember the term, "Blue dog democrats"? Those moderate dems from working class districts?

Ya that term is gone.
They're a hard left party.
They think they're just going to win because that's naturally what simply happens.
No. They're super popular in their coastal shitholes - where their message is formed.
And they will reallly clean up!
In their coastal shit holes.

They didn't understand that they pretended to be a moderate party and won purple states. They aren't going to do that as a party of pronouns.

Donald didn't win because he ran a conventional republican strategy and was ideologically pure (As the NeverTriumpth guys want to remind us) - he reached out to working class voters and brought back reagan democrats.
He won the fucking rust-belt states for fucks sake, that thing the media assured us could neeeeever happen, but did.

Pronoun party of "muh current year" can't count on Donald to lay down to them, nor can they count on moderates suddenly deciding that raising taxes will make them more prosperous.
Damn right we're vulnerable in 2018 - we are in every election.
But the dems don't know why they won, and they're shouting blindly because they're triggered by the "orange messiah", making mistakes.

Special Bonus: The media crushed the legitimacy of their own coverage and polling, team red does not trust them and will vote rain or shine.
That's what happens when you tell us our guy has no chance for months on end and we watch millionaires cry on camera for several hours, coming to grips with reality.
"Elections have consequences" you teleprompter reading shitbags.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:33:33 PM EST
1) He has to say this shit to keep their voter base from spiraling out of control. They are hemorrhaging right now, and their leadership is trying to stop the bleeding.

2) No chance at taking 50 seats. His math ignored one huge point...the Dems cannot outspend the Republicans in every single seat race like they outspent in GA6. They cannot hope to spend to that level period across the board. Not even close. To spend what they spent in GA6 on 50 seats would be over $1.5 billion (maybe much more depending on the GA6 estimates). And that ignores EVERY OTHER RACE. That is not happening. He is delusional.

This isn't wishful thinking on his part, he doesn't believe it himself. This is outright lying to try and keep voters engaged and donors attached. He has to say something because all the energy they have is locked into anti-Trump millennials and if they lose hope after this string of losses the Dems are beyond fucked in 2018. They are simply trying to stave off their own wave threatening to bury the party.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:35:46 PM EST
The single biggest challenge that the Democrats face is that their messenger (mainstream media) has lost every sliver of credibility.

Hell, it's like the baby formula industry hiring Casey Anthony as their ombudsman.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:37:00 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:37:27 PM EST by Not_so_Clever]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:
bleed Soros enough that he stops colluding
View Quote
One continues to hope.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:39:02 PM EST
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:39:11 PM EST
And what's the historical re-election rate for incumbents again?  93% since WWII - and that includes primary defeats, so the 7% doesn't necessarily mean a "flip."
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:42:16 PM EST
Historically he's right, Generally the incumbent party loses seats in the first mid-term election. Can they make up 26 seats? Sure. Will they? I don't know.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:51:54 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By captainpooby:
With all due respect, I believe we are at a place here where history goes out the window. We are charting completely new territory here with Trump as President and a Democratic party that is melting down and fracturing before our very eyes. The dems no longer have a message, they are just a group of factions brought together by identity politics that were held together by Obama. Now that he's gone, they are falling apart.


The dems have been running their campaigns saying "Vote for us because you are: insert identity here: LGBTQ, black, illegal, etc.. " but they need to be running thier campaigns saying "We are...the party of: insert philosophy here: they have none. "
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By captainpooby:
Originally Posted By SWIRE:
He's right you know.  Historically the party in power loses big in mid-terms.  If they actually are losing by much less than they were expected to, then that points to them gaining momentum as well.  Now his prediction on 50 seats is just a pipe dream but one that he needs to promote to keep his base motivated.  
With all due respect, I believe we are at a place here where history goes out the window. We are charting completely new territory here with Trump as President and a Democratic party that is melting down and fracturing before our very eyes. The dems no longer have a message, they are just a group of factions brought together by identity politics that were held together by Obama. Now that he's gone, they are falling apart.


The dems have been running their campaigns saying "Vote for us because you are: insert identity here: LGBTQ, black, illegal, etc.. " but they need to be running thier campaigns saying "We are...the party of: insert philosophy here: they have none. "
I will agree the Dems are floundering but to say they are falling apart like never seen before in history is greatly over estimating the situation (although I do wish it were true).  Here is what I see.  While true that the Dems do not have a cohesive message, they do have multiple messages that are being pushed, some very hard.  All it takes is another leader to coral them and push them in a specific direction.  0

When Obama won the GOP fractured.  When Obama jammed Obamacare down the country's throat, the GOP fractured further.  When the Tea Party started getting attention, the establishment GOP fought them and fractured the GOP further.  When Trump started winning the primary polls, the GOP was in complete disarray to the point where the infighting caused irreparable damage, as evident by the #nevertrumps still here crying about it.  Even though the GOP was fractured and many people upset, there was no reports of Republicans targeting democrats and stabbing them, running them off the road (even though we thought about it), or shooting their politicians.  The one thing that the Democrats do well is protest, making noise, getting on the news, and being heard.  That is still going on.  Those fractured groups might be going in different directions but they are pushing harder than the Republicans ever did.  

It will still take the right leader to get them to come together but name one election where that hasn't happened?  Even here most fell in line behind McCain and Romney, even though they are and were terrible.  

Personally, I think the Dems will get smacked down hard in 2018 but to under estimate them and just laugh them off...when they are literally stabbing and shooting us, is foolish.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:53:21 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/23/2017 12:57:37 PM EST by JPK]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ameshawki:
Historically he's right, Generally the incumbent party loses seats in the first mid-term election. Can they make up 26 seats? Sure. Will they? I don't know.
View Quote
Maybe, at $37 million a pop, which they don't have.

What is important is that President Trump himself, personally, "drives"his supporters to the polls.

The GOPe ain't helpin' themselves (or us) and that includes ALL R Reps and Senators, but the Ds are trying hard to alienate everyone but their rabid base. And the MSM is helping them.
Link Posted: 6/23/2017 12:54:20 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By felrom:
Nate Silver.   lol
View Quote
Came here to post this.



"Math is dead..."
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