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12/6/2019 7:27:02 PM
Posted: 12/17/2016 2:06:10 PM EST
I really do not have a good understanding of the source of the problems and violence in Syria, what the problems actually are, nor identification of the areas that currently have a lot of strife.

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?

I haven't even seen a summary from the MSM, to be honest.


Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:10:56 PM EST
Obama said he'd back the rebels and topple Asad, then he gave billions to Iran and let Putin cuck him.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:15:55 PM EST
Why were the rebels rebelling?
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:20:12 PM EST
My understanding (probably not right)

Genesis: Arab Spring spills over into Syria sparking protests and Assad tries a harsh crack down. This fuels the rise of rebel groups who start fighting Assad. AQ pops up with a group and turns it into a magnet for religious fanatics. ISIS rises after splintering from AQ and takes a large part of the country before going in to Iraq. Plenty of foreign $$$ flows to ISIS, AQ, and fighters. Assad gets in a battle for his life. Enter the US and Russia on opposite sides.

Current state. Many major cities are in absolute ruin. ISIS controls a large portion of the country. Other factions have smaller areas. Assad controls the coast and, with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, has "turned the tide." Massive casualty figures and we all know about the refugees.

That's a quick version.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:22:25 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lokt:
Why were the rebels rebelling?
View Quote

Obama/Clinton's Arab Spring democracy building bullshit.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:24:27 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/17/2016 2:29:13 PM EST by AJE]
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:28:40 PM EST
All you really need to know is "Arabs".
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:39:32 PM EST
Originally Posted By lokt:
I really do not have a good understanding of the source of the problems and violence in Syria, what the problems actually are, nor identification of the areas that currently have a lot of strife.

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?

I haven't even seen a summary from the MSM, to be honest.
View Quote

Assad-Tehran-Moscow + PKK/YPG kurds with Beijing political backing vs Saudi Arabia + GCC & Turkey Not exclusively sectarian but largely so. Problems are revolve mainly over ousting Assad and terrorist .orgs that Assad claims he's ousting. I win't bother detailing oil pipeline stuff as there will be 4 pages from other people debating that. Israel Def Minister also wants Assad gone. Areas of contention are fluid but are now primarily those closer to Syrian borders.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:44:53 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By whollyshite:
My understanding (probably not right)

Genesis: Arab Spring spills over into Syria sparking protests and Assad tries a harsh crack down. This fuels the rise of rebel groups who start fighting Assad. AQ pops up with a group and turns it into a magnet for religious fanatics. ISIS rises after splintering from AQ and takes a large part of the country before going in to Iraq. Plenty of foreign $$ flows to ISIS, AQ, and fighters. Assad gets in a battle for his life. Enter the US and Russia on opposite sides.

Current state. Many major cities are in absolute ruin. ISIS controls a large portion of the country. Other factions have smaller areas. Assad controls the coast and, with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, has "turned the tide." Massive casualty figures and we all know about the refugees.

That's a quick version.
View Quote

Iran.....then Russia. This is primarily a Tehran based op to prop Assad, Russia is high profile side of that. AQ group called Al Nusra which currently claims to split from AQ hoping to remove the terrorism label. A more exhaustive breakdown is at Charles Lister or Hassan Hassan's books or social media account. PKK and YPG also fighting Turkey which seeks Assad's removal.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:45:38 PM EST
"Leading from behind". Withdrawal from Iraq leaves a power vacuum that AQ was trying to fill. Instability leads to the Arab Spring, and rebellion against Assad. So our gov't decides to back the "moderates", who get subsumed into the ISIS umbrella, while the Russians and Iran back Assad. Whole place turns into a dogs breakfast and our government is still trying to figure it out. So we are making air strikes that in the end help either no one at all or ISIS but the Russians are pulling air strikes to support the Assad forces who are on the other side. So now we have armed aircraft on combat missions in the area of other armed aircraft on combat missions, but the aims are different but we are not shooting at each other.

To quote Hunt for Red October "This will get out of hand and we will be lucky to live through it"
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:46:00 PM EST
I'm seeing on social media that people are saying something must be done about Aleppo. I was wondering if something new happened because the same people didn't even know it was happening in 2012 when it started, for awhile with that drowned Turkish kid but it was just refugees.

But they claim Russians are bombing civilians, something must be done and whatnot. I think about asking them when did it all start and why because it's retarded that just now they care.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:53:11 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lokt:
Why were the rebels rebelling?
View Quote

Oversimplified explanation - half demanding Democracy, half wanting Sunni Sharia law (Assad is not Sunni) but the Democracy wanting faction - teachers, doctors, etc was pretty much wiped out (tiny impotent fraction left) by Assad forces or the 'ISIS & Al Qaeda types' who proved to be more ruthless, determined and capable on the battlefield.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:56:50 PM EST
Devil worshippers, devil worshippers everywhere...
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 2:57:50 PM EST
whollyshite's summary is pretty much right on.

Originally Posted By lokt:

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?
View Quote


Every muslim faction you have ever heard of is there. Sometimes they cooperate, sometimes they kill each other.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:04:17 PM EST
Something to do with a oil pipeline if you would believe that.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:09:03 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By kpoesq369:
"Leading from behind". Withdrawal from Iraq leaves a power vacuum that AQ was trying to fill. Instability leads to the Arab Spring, and rebellion against Assad. So our gov't decides to back the "moderates", who get subsumed into the ISIS umbrella, while the Russians and Iran back Assad. Whole place turns into a dogs breakfast and our government is still trying to figure it out. So we are making air strikes that in the end help either no one at all or ISIS but the Russians are pulling air strikes to support the Assad forces who are on the other side. So now we have armed aircraft on combat missions in the area of other armed aircraft on combat missions, but the aims are different but we are not shooting at each other.

To quote Hunt for Red October "This will get out of hand and we will be lucky to live through it"
View Quote
there was a 6 to 12 month span where the admin just sort of sat around and did nothing.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:15:14 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/17/2016 3:16:51 PM EST by Thedude27]
In a succinct manner.

Ppl that donate to Hillary want an oil pipeline to go through Syria. Assad and Russia doesn't want the pipeline(mainly because russia sends lots of its oil to europe which is a major factor in its economy).

Results in:
Assad must go.
Russia doesnt seem to like Hildog. Russia bombing resistance.
Various factions doing their own thing backed by the other major players.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:17:49 PM EST
Qatar-Turkey pipeline.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:30:54 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/17/2016 3:39:19 PM EST by daoliver924]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Thedude27:
In a succinct manner.

Ppl that donate to Hillary want an oil pipeline to go through Syria. Assad and Russia doesn't want the pipeline(mainly because russia sends lots of its oil to europe which is a major factor in its economy).

Results in:
Assad must go.
Russia doesnt seem to like Hildog. Russia bombing resistance.
Various factions doing their own thing backed by the other major players.
View Quote

It's actually a natural gas pipeline. Iran, Syria, Egypt.
Arab Gas Pipeline. Russian gas company building Syrian part.

Qatar Turkey is a competing line that the US supports because it leaves Iran and Russia out.

The original concept was to keep gas flowing to Israel, Turkey from Egypt. After Arab Spring in Egypt it was no neccessary to go that direction. The Russians suggested making it bidirectional and supplying in reverse. Egypt, Iran, Syria Israel. Jordan agreed.

Qatar (big Hillary donor) didn't like that because they were left out.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 3:33:21 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GreenBastard:
Obama said he'd back the rebels.
View Quote


And no.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 4:41:36 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/17/2016 4:45:57 PM EST by nowgrn4]
Syria and Iran have the last two non Fiat gold backed currencies left in the region. The Global bankers want to add them to the list here.
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Our military along with NATO's forces are their shake down crew. That's what it's really all about. Simple.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 4:47:59 PM EST
We're not here to do your homework, Gary Johnson.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 4:54:54 PM EST
It all starts with religion.

Islam seriously needs reform, but the orthodox types refuse to give in because the Quran states that attempts to reform Islam are a sin against Islam.

So any time there is a desire for Westernization in the middle east, the orthodox guys (the rulers over there) get mad and use religious extremism to battle progressivism.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 5:53:29 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By whollyshite:
My understanding (probably not right)

Genesis: Arab Spring spills over into Syria sparking protests and Assad tries a harsh crack down. This fuels the rise of rebel groups who start fighting Assad. AQ pops up with a group and turns it into a magnet for religious fanatics. ISIS rises after splintering from AQ and takes a large part of the country before going in to Iraq. Plenty of foreign $$ flows to ISIS, AQ, and fighters. Assad gets in a battle for his life. Enter the US and Russia on opposite sides.

Current state. Many major cities are in absolute ruin. ISIS controls a large portion of the country. Other factions have smaller areas. Assad controls the coast and, with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, has "turned the tide." Massive casualty figures and we all know about the refugees.

That's a quick version.
View Quote



You are right. Female Tunisian policewoman slapped a food vendor in the face after trying to extort a bribe. He was so humiliated that he lit himself on fire. This was the beginning of the arab spring revolt that moved through several countries, Syria included.
Link Posted: 12/17/2016 5:59:53 PM EST
It'll all be Trump's fault in one month.
Link Posted: 12/18/2016 1:50:31 PM EST
good info. thank you. (Sunday afternoon bump)
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:39:27 PM EST
Originally Posted By lokt:
I really do not have a good understanding of the source of the problems and violence in Syria, what the problems actually are, nor identification of the areas that currently have a lot of strife.

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?

I haven't even seen a summary from the MSM, to be honest.


View Quote


Because no one has done a really good one. Like an onion, the more you peel it, the more it makes you cry. Its a really hard problem set to wrap your head around when you've got all day and all the good resources in the world to cogitate on it. The ME is impossible to understand with our shitty press. I recommend "The Rise of ISIS" on Frontline as the absolute best. The upshot is that Iranian adventurism, conditions within Syria (bad harvests, drought, Syrian governance) and a feckless Administration absolutely committed to nothing created conditions whereby conflict was going to occur.

First, the happenings in Syria and Iraq are really related...its really hard to evaluate one without the other. With this point in mind, the role of the Iranians, most critically that of Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC commander is most important. You have to come to some grip with what the Iranians' goals, capability and worldview is.

Second, you have to understand that externally driven civil wars usually just don't happen. Internal conditions are critical, even if they are exploited by external actors. The Syrians, specifically the Assads and their core of supporters, were living the same fool's paradise that past success portended future results, when their entire state was the proverbial British designed, Russian built, Arab maintained abortion. Syria in its present Ba'athist form might be profitably viewed as one of the last Soviet states to fall, more than some inherently historically and permanent entity destroyed by outsiders.

Third, while we tend to view US interests and power as central (and its critical to the analysis, to be sure) there are other fairly independent actors in the region with their own capabilities and weakness that are critical to the analysis, starting with the Jordanians, Gulf Arabs, Saudis and Egyptians.

Fourth, politics remains, even in the ME, a local game. As an addendum to the third part, things like government patronage jobs, water rights, grazing rights, and housing can drive local conflict, and then those actors look outside for anyone to support their decidedly local effort, and for the outside actors, they are viewing things as a larger enterprise.

So, this just gets us down the road. Where do we want to start?
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:42:49 PM EST
Originally Posted By lokt:
I really do not have a good understanding of the source of the problems and violence in Syria, what the problems actually are, nor identification of the areas that currently have a lot of strife.

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?

I haven't even seen a summary from the MSM, to be honest.
View Quote

You need to start with a basic history of The Great War of 1914-1918, the basic positions of the Empires pre- and post-Great War.

Syria is a false construct of Sykes Picot Agreement between the British and French, just like Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are.

The Cold War prevented the fundamental problems from being addressed, and now they are rectifying the underlying strife that has existed there for centuries.
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:43:30 PM EST
Obama choose the side of worst of 2 evils, Russia chose the lesser of the 2.
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:43:50 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/19/2016 12:44:23 PM EST by N1Rampage]
It's obvious we should get in the middle of this. We need peace now. 

Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:44:09 PM EST
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:44:48 PM EST
Originally Posted By lokt:
I really do not have a good understanding of the source of the problems and violence in Syria, what the problems actually are, nor identification of the areas that currently have a lot of strife.

What factions are involved? Is the violence particularly sectarian?

I haven't even seen a summary from the MSM, to be honest.
View Quote



Pub Brawl.

Everybody is scrapping but they don't know why, nobody likes the landlord, people are watching on wondering what the fuck is happening with no idea who to cheer for and getting their beer spilled.
Link Posted: 12/19/2016 12:54:36 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By nowgrn4:
Syria and Iran have the last two non Fiat gold backed currencies left in the region. The Global bankers want to add them to the list here.

Our military along with NATO's forces are their shake down crew. That's what it's really all about. Simple.
View Quote


Wait, everything on the interest says that Syria has had an official and unofficial floating exchange rate since the 1970s, and that the Pound has been a Fiat currency for a long time.
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