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11/24/2017 4:44:23 PM
11/22/2017 10:05:29 PM
Posted: 9/3/2004 10:34:50 PM EST
Some things came to mind while reading the assorted threads, things that aren't really reflected in the responses I've read... Since there are SO MANY Russian-school-massacre threads here, I thought I'd post what I see in it's own separate topic...

There's a bit to pick over here... As most of you know, I am *NOT* a believer in the 'global holy war'/U.S. vs Islam stuff. The WOT is about the US vs a group of Arab dicatators who, while they do not control AQ, feed & grow the movement to divert the anger of their populations away from their own corrupt governments and onto us. It's not about Islam, that's the 'vover story', it's about control. AQ is a proxy, in cold-war terms...

The situation in Russia is a civil - not holy - war. That the Chechens are predominantly Muslim and the Russians are athiest (after 70+ years of Communisim) or Orthodox is a side-note in all this.

Basically, we are seeing what a '2nd US Civil War' would look like today. Back in the 1860s, in OUR war, both sides basically adhered to the 'rules of war' as they stood. Terrorisim, though it undoubtably was committed by both sides, was not treated as a means of war. So when Sherman & Grant destroyed the Confederacy from the inside & out, the rebel states surrendered.

In Russia, the government troops had their own 'March to The Sea', and Grozny burned instead of Atlanta. The difference is that instead of surrendering, the rebels fought on as terrorists... Both sides have long since descended into a no-holds-barred war, and at present it is in a state where neither side can win, and neither side can stop. The Russians cannot destroy the Chechen rebel/terror movement, and the Chechens cannot force the Russians to give them independance. They are not, however, an 'arm' of Al Queda, nor do they fight like one. Chechens, like most revolutionary/sepratist terrorist groups (IRA, FARC, etc) do not have the AQ/Pali penchant for suicide-bomb attacks. While they may undertake suicidal missions, the motive is not 'to die gloriously', but to accomplish a mission that will likely get them killed. Of course, this makes sene - their cause is a secular one, remember...

However, the other 'truth' of the Chechen/Russian war is that it is a true no-holds-barred conflict, a total war. Both sides have decided that 'The only rule of war is victory', and both sides are equally brutal. If you ever think we should 'take the gloves off' in Iraq, look at this war, and see what that future holds. This is the danger of oversimplification, of seing the WOT as a religeous 'kill-em-all-let-God-sort-em-out' crusade...

Into this situation, comes Al Queda. Now, originally, this was a Chechen vs Russian war. Period. However, as the Chechens became less of a rebel army and more of a terror movement, AQ has become more than happy to help -> first with training & support, now with actual 'troops'...

Al Queda, it appears, has started operating as the 'Anti-USA', engaging in the same proxy tactics we use against them, and against the USSR prior to that. In a sense, the proxy (AQ) has it's own proxies (foreign secular and religeously motivated terror groups). They are sending reinforcements & support to the (secular and religeous) Iraqi insurgency, and to the secular Chechen rebel movement. Basically, to qualify as a member of the 'Anti-Coalition', you must be (a) predominantly Islamic or tied to the Middle East, and (b) engaged in a conflict against a putative US or Wesrern Ally. This being the case, AQ will contribute their fighters & resources to your cause, in the samw way the USA 'assists' various governments in fighting AQ.

AQ's action here potentially allows them to influence world events without exposing themselves as they do when they mount a traditional operation. It also opens up new 'possibilities' for methods.

Remember: Al Queda in and of itself has a specific pattern of operations -> big targets, big bombs, and the attackers either are long gone when the bomg goes, or they pull a Strangelove & ride it in.... No shooting, no hostage-taking, no duking it out with Police/Security/Military forces... Just sabotage. There are logical reaons for this, primarily AQ's base of strength is a long way away front their targets, so their attacks are designed to involve a minimum number of operatives & a maximum amount of damage. This means sabotage teams & large bombs.

However, the groups that they provide assistance to DO engage in more 'personal' terrorisim. In all cases, these groups are fighting in their own country, or a neighboring one. The conflicts themselves are usually very 'personal' for both sides, and generally predate AQ itself. Since AQ does not have operational control, we see AQ operatives fighting using host-movement tactics. When in Iraq, do as the Iraqis (IEDs, RPG/sniper/mortar attacks). When in Chechnya, do as the Chechens...

For this reason, I do not believe we will ever see 'personal' terrorisim in the USA. There is no such movement here for them to co-opt. AQ operates here as AQ, not by proxy. Just as the Palistinians confine their suicide bombings & shootings to Israel, the IRA to Ireland, and the Chechens to Russia, 'personal' terrorisim requires that the core base of the terror group be adjacent or indigenous, not an ocean away. The logistics dictate that.

So as much as some of you may wish to be able to 'get some', there will be no hostage/firearms terror in the US. You're not going to see AQ take over a school, or shoot it out with the cops... And the whole battle is about secular control of the Middle East, not about Islam vs the West.

That's my take on it, anyway... It's why I don't see it as 'religeous', why I think we can win, and why I don't think 'Nuke Mecca' is the answer. Cut off the heads (ADs) and the body will die.

But if we go 'total war/kill-em-all', the WOT will be as unwinnable for us as the Chechnya conflict is for either side...
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:47:27 PM EST
Good thinking in that post.

Link Posted: 9/3/2004 10:57:30 PM EST
The countries financing these murderous savage pigs are muslim, generally totalitarian states.

Religion DOES INDEED fuel the majority of this. While the *leaders* may not be motivated by religion, the actual terrorists ARE. THEY must be exterminated WITHOUT MERCY. The nations that support, finance, encourage them, including any "civilians" must meet the same fate as the ones doing the dirty work.

This war, and it is WWIII make no mistake, is about the civilized world fighting against and attempting to annihilate the enemy which seeks to impose it's islamic totalitarian will on all the ''infidels''.

Quite frankly the only option here is victory and victory comes at a price. We didn't win WWI and WWII by pussy footing around and worrying about our enemy's feelings. We didn't win WWI and WII by being weak and cowardly and not having the fortitude to absorb horrific images of the brutality of war - and crushing those who subjected our citizens to such atrocities. If we in the US ever see something like what just happened in our schools, and we do not respond as we would have in WWII, you can damn well bet right then and there that we will NEVER win this war and we will be slaves to the savages.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:00:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By A_G:
The countries financing these murderous savage pigs are muslim, generally totalitarian states.

Religion DOES INDEED fuel the majority of this. While the *leaders* may not be motivated by religion, the actual terrorists ARE. THEY must be exterminated WITHOUT MERCY. The nations that support, finance, encourage them, including any "civilians" must meet the same fate as the ones doing the dirty work.

This war, and it is WWIII make no mistake, is about the civilized world fighting against and attempting to annihilate the enemy which seeks to impose it's islamic totalitarian will on all the ''infidels''.

Quite frankly the only option here is victory and victory comes at a price. We didn't win WWI and WWII by pussy footing around and worrying about our enemy's feelings. We didn't win WWI and WII by being weak and cowardly and not having the fortitude to absorb horrific images of the brutality of war - and crushing those who subjected our citizens to such atrocities. If we in the US ever see something like what just happened in our schools, and we do not respond as we would have in WWII, you can damn well bet right then and there that we will NEVER win this war and we will be slaves to the savages.



Slaves? I highly doubt it. We may be dead, but we will never be slaves. Remember you are living in the country that has the most nuclear weapons in the world. Let them try to enslave us without one of these going off.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:10:55 PM EST

Originally Posted By WI_Rifleman:

Originally Posted By A_G:
The countries financing these murderous savage pigs are muslim, generally totalitarian states.

Religion DOES INDEED fuel the majority of this. While the *leaders* may not be motivated by religion, the actual terrorists ARE. THEY must be exterminated WITHOUT MERCY. The nations that support, finance, encourage them, including any "civilians" must meet the same fate as the ones doing the dirty work.

This war, and it is WWIII make no mistake, is about the civilized world fighting against and attempting to annihilate the enemy which seeks to impose it's islamic totalitarian will on all the ''infidels''.

Quite frankly the only option here is victory and victory comes at a price. We didn't win WWI and WWII by pussy footing around and worrying about our enemy's feelings. We didn't win WWI and WII by being weak and cowardly and not having the fortitude to absorb horrific images of the brutality of war - and crushing those who subjected our citizens to such atrocities. If we in the US ever see something like what just happened in our schools, and we do not respond as we would have in WWII, you can damn well bet right then and there that we will NEVER win this war and we will be slaves to the savages.



Slaves? I highly doubt it. We may be dead, but we will never be slaves. Remember you are living in the country that has the most nuclear weapons in the world. Let them try to enslave us without one of these going off.




Given the state of the nation and the unwillingness of a near majority to so much as recognize the magnitude of the calamity we are facing let alone the willingness to fight, I HIGHLY doubt there would be even ONE low yield nuclear weapon used against these savages.

I hate being wrong and incidentally I rarely am, but I sure as hell hope I am wrong and don't ever have to find out.
Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:13:31 PM EST
Once the muslim hoards start comming over hear to enslave us I GUARANTEE we will react with more firepower than you can possibly imagine.

Link Posted: 9/3/2004 11:40:06 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/3/2004 11:56:22 PM EST by Dave_A]

Originally Posted By A_G:
The countries financing these murderous savage pigs are muslim, generally totalitarian states.

Religion DOES INDEED fuel the majority of this. While the *leaders* may not be motivated by religion, the actual terrorists ARE. THEY must be exterminated WITHOUT MERCY. The nations that support, finance, encourage them, including any "civilians" must meet the same fate as the ones doing the dirty work.

It's not what the footsoldiers believe, or why they fight that matters. You don't win a war by killing every last PVT on the other side - they are too easy to replace, and in this perticular war too hard to find & engage. You win a war by destroying/defeating the enemy leadership. So FAPP the motivation that matters is the one that drives the leaders, not the one that drives the individual terrorists.

This war, and it is WWIII make no mistake, is about the civilized world fighting against and attempting to annihilate the enemy which seeks to impose it's islamic totalitarian will on all the ''infidels''.

That is what the followers are told to believe, however the leadership is only concerned with the aquisition & maintainance of personal power. Bin Laden himself is one of said expendable followers in the grand scheme of things, a usefull zealot who's blind fervor allows him to be manipulated to serve the very cause he originally set out to fight against (AQ was founded to fight the House of Saud, we became the major target later)

Quite frankly the only option here is victory and victory comes at a price. We didn't win WWI and WWII by pussy footing around and worrying about our enemy's feelings. We didn't win WWI and WII by being weak and cowardly and not having the fortitude to absorb horrific images of the brutality of war - and crushing those who subjected our citizens to such atrocities. If we in the US ever see something like what just happened in our schools, and we do not respond as we would have in WWII, you can damn well bet right then and there that we will NEVER win this war and we will be slaves to the savages.

We won WWII by conquest of territory & traditional combat. There were enemy cities to capture, enemy generals to defeat, and heads of state who could accept our terms. The battles we are fighting now are not won solely on the field.

Russua 'won' the battle for Grozny by essentially burning it to the ground in an artillery & air barrage that would do Kim Jong Il proud, and moving in to take the city. In doing so, they lost the battle for Chechnya, and garaunteed themselves a blood feud for years to come.

It's not the enemy's feelings we're worying about. It's the feelings of those who could BECOME the enemy that are of concern. The only way to win this sort of war, where the 'enemy' is an idea, not a single country or alliance, is to defeat the hostile idea with your own.

We did not win the Cold War on a battlefield, we did not raze Moscow or kill every last Communist... We won the Cold War by proving the superiority of Capitalisim to Communisim. And we will win the war on terror by proving the superiority of American democracy to totalitarian dictatorship, not by brute force. If we go the Russian way, we will find ourselves in a blood feud that will never end, as we will loose any hope of ideological victory (this is the situation in Russia today)...




Link Posted: 9/4/2004 12:10:37 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/4/2004 12:13:26 AM EST by Cato]
The Russians have made LOTS of mistakes even after the two wars on Chechnya - no "winning hearts & minds" here! Of course, terror, especially killing children, can't be the answer, but imagine how you would react if "big brother" is coming in killing your father or brothers, raping the women and burning your hometown to the ground- all the while the UN and the West doing NOTHING. It is very sad that a very clever Putin was allowed to claim that Chechnya somehow falls under the "war on terror" while in truth the whole thing is a big, ugly Russian colonial war. Sadly Schwarzenegger was very wrong when he said "nobody has to fear the Russians anymore"...

Btw, Dave_A, I have seldom seen such lucid thoughts on a (usually bloodthirsty/WWIII mentality) gunboard!
Link Posted: 9/4/2004 12:21:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By WI_Rifleman:
Once the muslim hoards start comming over hear to enslave us I GUARANTEE we will react with more firepower than you can possibly imagine.

img12.exs.cx/img12/4256/250px-Nagasakibomb.jpg



They ain't commin... There's no enemy 'Army' trying to conquer the world here... Just a bunch of bad guys who are terrified that their people will wake up & realize that the Emperoro is naked (Emperor's New Clothes, a danish fable... Describes the situation 'over there' perfectly)...

As noted above, we're fighting the same old tired ideology (totalitarian dictatorship), but this time the enemy has managed to manipulate a group of religeous zealots and use them as a weapon...

The zealots may dream of restoring their ancient empire, but they have as much chance of that as the KKK has of restoring the Confederacy, but they will do alot of damage trying... Said damage has in the past caused western powers to cut and run...

Now that's changing, but the solution is not firepower...

It's showing the populatins of a certaing roup of countries that big-scary-bossman is walkin around in his birthday suit...

Without the dictators in question, ther problem will fade away... As it stands, there will allways be nother recruit to replace each one wi kill...
Link Posted: 9/4/2004 12:25:51 AM EST

Originally Posted By Dave_A:

Originally Posted By WI_Rifleman:
Once the muslim hoards start comming over hear to enslave us I GUARANTEE we will react with more firepower than you can possibly imagine.

img12.exs.cx/img12/4256/250px-Nagasakibomb.jpg



They ain't commin... There's no enemy 'Army' trying to conquer the world here... Just a bunch of bad guys who are terrified that their people will wake up & realize that the Emperoro is naked (Emperor's New Clothes, a danish fable... Describes the situation 'over there' perfectly)...

As noted above, we're fighting the same old tired ideology (totalitarian dictatorship), but this time the enemy has managed to manipulate a group of religeous zealots and use them as a weapon...

The zealots may dream of restoring their ancient empire, but they have as much chance of that as the KKK has of restoring the Confederacy, but they will do alot of damage trying... Said damage has in the past caused western powers to cut and run...

Now that's changing, but the solution is not firepower...

It's showing the populatins of a certaing roup of countries that big-scary-bossman is walkin around in his birthday suit...

Without the dictators in question, ther problem will fade away... As it stands, there will allways be nother recruit to replace each one wi kill...



My post of the Nagasaki bomb was pure hyperbole. People who think the arabs will enslave us are living in a fantasy world. If it ever came to the hoards we would have an answer.
Link Posted: 9/4/2004 12:28:35 AM EST

Originally Posted By Cato:
The Russians have made LOTS of mistakes even after the two wars on Chechnya - no "winning hearts & minds" here! Of course, terror, especially killing children, can't be the answer, but imagine how you would react if "big brother" is coming in killing your father or brothers, raping the women and burning your hometown to the ground- all the while the UN and the West doing NOTHING. It is very sad that a very clever Putin was allowed to claim that Chechnya somehow falls under the "war on terror" while in truth the whole thing is a big, ugly Russian colonial war. Sadly Schwarzenegger was very wrong when he said "nobody has to fear the Russians anymore"...

Btw, Dave_A, I have seldom seen such lucid thoughts on a (usually bloodthirsty/WWIII mentality) gunboard!



Within the next few months, if all goes as planned, I'll be on my way to becoming an officer in the US Army (working on the app now), and probably will end up fighting this thing for real...

I've allways followed history, and if I'm going to end up fighting a war I want to have an idea of how it can be won, rather than simply racking up body count... Granted, a 2LT won't get to decide the strategy, but fortunately the conclusions I've come to endorse the strategy we're (for the most part) following....

We're talking about a war of ideologies here, and you can only win an ideological war ideologically... It's about who's system is better, not who can rain the most fire down on the other side...

After all, if all it took to end war was genocide, we could just nuke the whole world.... Would suck to live thru the fallout, though... Same principle applies here, on a lesser scale... Killing the patient will kill the disease, but who cares if you've cured the disease - the patient's dead anyway....
Link Posted: 9/4/2004 4:17:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By Dave_A:
I do not believe we will ever see 'personal' terrorisim in the USA. There is no such movement here for them to co-opt. AQ operates here as AQ, not by proxy. Just as the Palistinians confine their suicide bombings & shootings to Israel, the IRA to Ireland, and the Chechens to Russia, 'personal' terrorisim requires that the core base of the terror group be adjacent or indigenous, not an ocean away. The logistics dictate that.




Good, logical thinking Dave...

Since you like history you can appreciate how some conflicts bring about revolutionary changes in warfare (think WWI). This will be one of them IMO.

You are dead-on with the logistics differences, but it does not mean it can't be done. What it does mean is that it will look much different than the conflicts you mention. 3k dead in one attack on 9/11 was an example of what's to come. This thinking is why .gov is so determined to 'control' WMD proliferation even to the point of pre-emptive attacks. They too know that a single car bomb won't shake us up.

The sad truth will be that Americans may end up at odds with their fellow Americans if the threads that bind us into a society are torn because of massive, sustained economic interruptions (which is AQ's plainly stated goal).

Three years after 9/11 I see little change in the determination of the islamists and in fact the attacks are spreading with clear signs of intel and tactics sharing across continents and groups. Though the names will change and we'll capture or kill 'Mohammed Al Whatever', more will step up to take his place.

This war will end in a massive attack on a large nation state someday. Iran is now and has always been the head of the snake. Everything else is just foreplay. What was true hundreds of years ago is still true today: make the price so high for your enemy that he will not continue to fight. It really is that simple. We as a society are not ready to admit it to ourselves yet.

Religion/spritiuality has always been used to motivate followers of power hungry leaders. We'll defeat it as 'islam' this time if we're lucky and my grandchildren will fight the same plague with another name in their day.

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