Hey,
To try and combat the doom and gloom around here, read this article:
blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/06/01/can-new-voters-deliver-november-victory-for-obama/#more-87/Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama?
peter_brown
In presidential campaigns, as on Wall Street, the phrase “this time is different” elicits skepticism among practitioners who may want to believe, but understand the lessons of history.
Traders worry about stocks that rise too far, too fast, because they fear the dreaded market correction. Political pros question a recently successful strategy that does not jibe with the record of the past.
Let’s be clear: Sen. Barack Obama may indeed be different from most politicians. Not only will he be the first African-American nominee of a major U.S. political party, but also he is truly gifted with rare communications skills and charisma.
At the same time, he is betting the White House on the same Democratic demographic strategy that has given us a variety of Republican presidents over the past generations.
Ever since reformers seized control of the Democratic Party in the 1970s, most of their presidential candidates - that is, the losing ones - have based their game plan not on winning more of the existing electorate
but on increasing the pool with new voters who lean their way.This led to frequent internal warfare about whether the millions of Democrats and independents who voted for Ronald Reagan were worth chasing if that meant trimming the party’s ideological sails.
Sen. Obama brought out millions of new voters — most black, white liberals and young — attracted by his persona, his calls for change and a voting record the nonpartisan National Journal rated as the most liberal in the U.S. Senate for 2007.
‘Eggheads and African-Americans’
But he did relatively poorly among the white working-class, a more politically moderate group among whom the only two Democrats to win the White House since 1964, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, did well. Paul Begala, who helped manage Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign and is supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton this time, warned that the Obama victory was based on “eggheads and African-Americans” but not the much more numerous Joe-and-Jill six-pack voters.
To be candid, many Obama supporters agree. As Donna Brazile, an African-American Democratic strategist put it in a televised sparing match with Mr. Begala on CNN, “we don’t have to just rely on blue-collar voters and Hispanics.”
That is the $64 (million) question: Have the electorate and the times changed sufficiently that the once-losing Democratic strategy will succeed in a year when the playing field so favors Sen. Obama?
To be sure, Sen. Obama’s ability to bring new voters to the polls in the primaries was greater than his Democratic predecessors.
But his weakness among white-working class voters is probably as great, or greater, than any of the losing Democrats of the past 40 years.Recent Quinnipiac University polls of voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio - the three largest swing states in the Electoral College - found that Sen. Obama also has serious problems among white voters with college educations, too.
Moreover, his campaign’s assumption that the new voters he inspired in the primaries will go to the polls in November, and will offset any weakness among the white working class, is worth examining.
Most analysts believe that whether the white working class comes home to the Democrats or supports Republican candidate Sen. John McCain, will determine the November election, but almost all expect a huge turnout to benefit Sen. Obama in any case.
That’s where the question of whether he is indeed different becomes important.
Looking to History
Conventional wisdom - and common sense - says that because Sen. Obama brought out an estimated 3.5 million new voters in the primaries, he will be able to inspire record turnout levels that will carry him to victory in the fall.
Yet, the historical record says it just ain’t so.Political scientists Leonard Williams at Manchester College in Indiana and Neil Wollman at Bentley College in Massachusetts studied almost 300-plus state presidential primaries between 1972 and 2004.
“No matter which party had the edge in nomination contest turnout, there is no resultant advantage in the general election for that party,” said Mr. Williams.
In fact, twice as many times, the party with the higher turnout in a state primary lost that state in November than won it.
In roughly two-thirds of the states, Democrats had the higher turnout, but only carried those states about 40% of the time.
All this, of course, does not mean that Sen. Obama is doomed, just as the primary turnout doesn’t guarantee his election.
He is a unique figure in U.S. history, who–win or lose– will be a reference point for how America evolved in the early 21st century.
But whether he can translate his voter turnout during the primaries into victory in November may not be the sure thing that many expect.
/end
Keep your chins up!
Kevin "
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