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Posted: 6/4/2008 4:20:22 AM EDT
Hey,

To try and combat the doom and gloom around here, read this article:

blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/06/01/can-new-voters-deliver-november-victory-for-obama/#more-87/

Can New Voters Deliver November Victory for Obama?
peter_brown

In presidential campaigns, as on Wall Street, the phrase “this time is different” elicits skepticism among practitioners who may want to believe, but understand the lessons of history.

Traders worry about stocks that rise too far, too fast, because they fear the dreaded market correction. Political pros question a recently successful strategy that does not jibe with the record of the past.

Let’s be clear: Sen. Barack Obama may indeed be different from most politicians. Not only will he be the first African-American nominee of a major U.S. political party, but also he is truly gifted with rare communications skills and charisma.

At the same time, he is betting the White House on the same Democratic demographic strategy that has given us a variety of Republican presidents over the past generations.

Ever since reformers seized control of the Democratic Party in the 1970s, most of their presidential candidates - that is, the losing ones - have based their game plan not on winning more of the existing electorate but on increasing the pool with new voters who lean their way.

This led to frequent internal warfare about whether the millions of Democrats and independents who voted for Ronald Reagan were worth chasing if that meant trimming the party’s ideological sails.

Sen. Obama brought out millions of new voters — most black, white liberals and young — attracted by his persona, his calls for change and a voting record the nonpartisan National Journal rated as the most liberal in the U.S. Senate for 2007.

‘Eggheads and African-Americans’

But he did relatively poorly among the white working-class, a more politically moderate group among whom the only two Democrats to win the White House since 1964, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, did well. Paul Begala, who helped manage Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign and is supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton this time, warned that the Obama victory was based on “eggheads and African-Americans” but not the much more numerous Joe-and-Jill six-pack voters.

To be candid, many Obama supporters agree. As Donna Brazile, an African-American Democratic strategist put it in a televised sparing match with Mr. Begala on CNN, “we don’t have to just rely on blue-collar voters and Hispanics.”

That is the $64 (million) question: Have the electorate and the times changed sufficiently that the once-losing Democratic strategy will succeed in a year when the playing field so favors Sen. Obama?

To be sure, Sen. Obama’s ability to bring new voters to the polls in the primaries was greater than his Democratic predecessors. But his weakness among white-working class voters is probably as great, or greater, than any of the losing Democrats of the past 40 years.

Recent Quinnipiac University polls of voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio - the three largest swing states in the Electoral College - found that Sen. Obama also has serious problems among white voters with college educations, too.

Moreover, his campaign’s assumption that the new voters he inspired in the primaries will go to the polls in November, and will offset any weakness among the white working class, is worth examining.

Most analysts believe that whether the white working class comes home to the Democrats or supports Republican candidate Sen. John McCain, will determine the November election, but almost all expect a huge turnout to benefit Sen. Obama in any case.

That’s where the question of whether he is indeed different becomes important.

Looking to History

Conventional wisdom - and common sense - says that because Sen. Obama brought out an estimated 3.5 million new voters in the primaries, he will be able to inspire record turnout levels that will carry him to victory in the fall.

Yet, the historical record says it just ain’t so.

Political scientists Leonard Williams at Manchester College in Indiana and Neil Wollman at Bentley College in Massachusetts studied almost 300-plus state presidential primaries between 1972 and 2004.

“No matter which party had the edge in nomination contest turnout, there is no resultant advantage in the general election for that party,” said Mr. Williams.

In fact, twice as many times, the party with the higher turnout in a state primary lost that state in November than won it. In roughly two-thirds of the states, Democrats had the higher turnout, but only carried those states about 40% of the time.

All this, of course, does not mean that Sen. Obama is doomed, just as the primary turnout doesn’t guarantee his election.

He is a unique figure in U.S. history, who–win or lose– will be a reference point for how America evolved in the early 21st century.

But whether he can translate his voter turnout during the primaries into victory in November may not be the sure thing that many expect.

/end

Keep your chins up!

Kevin ""
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:06:28 AM EDT
Don't discount what stupidity and money can accomplish in the world today.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:07:55 AM EDT

Quoted:
Don't discount what stupidity and money can accomplish in the world today.


and there is an abundance of both pulling the lever this Nov.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:09:03 AM EDT


Great!  So well end up with McCain!




Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:09:49 AM EDT
Add to that the drive-by media creating tons of mind-numbed liberal robots
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:11:33 AM EDT

Quoted:
Don't discount what stupidity and money can accomplish in the world today.


I pray that the scenario noted above is true and that Obama loses...but I am also astute enough to recognize that the above is absolutely on the mark.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:11:42 AM EDT
CHANGE!
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:14:03 AM EDT
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:14:47 AM EDT
Any of you guys been to South East Kentucky?
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:14:55 AM EDT

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.

Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:19:33 AM EDT
The big O is unelectable, and for the reason you already know.

But the demoncrats keep drawing from the far left of their party and keep getting smashed. You may not like it, but the Republicans keep drawing from the center and winning.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:20:10 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.


Well put.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:20:17 AM EDT

Quoted:
Don't discount what stupidity and money can accomplish in the world today.


Don't discount the scope of white guilt and the idea that a vote for Obama is an act of atonement for past racist sins.  
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:21:33 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.



+1.  I've come to terms with the shittiness of McCain.  

You need to be at peace with his RINOness.  Seriously.

Get ready to stick a McCain sticker on your car, and *gulp* donate to his campaign.

Because the alternative...my God man, the alternative.

Kevin "Think about it."
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:22:40 AM EDT

Quoted:
CHANGE!




Ok, here's a quarter, don't spend it all at once.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:25:09 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.



+1.  I've come to terms with the shittiness of McCain.  

You need to be at peace with his RINOness.  Seriously.

Get ready to stick a McCain sticker on your car, and *gulp* donate to his campaign.

Because the alternative...my God man, the alternative.

Kevin "Think about it."


This is a NATIONAL campaign guys.

As long as McCain stays moderate, much of the Hispanic and female HRC vote will go to McCain in the absence of a Hillary Veepdom.

Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:28:22 AM EDT

Quoted:
Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.


FUCK IT!  McCain '08!  
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:36:57 AM EDT
I personally think the level of enthusiasm for Obama is going to be hard to maintain until November He is also going to have a hard time getting the rural white vote in the South, Midwest, and parts of the West that typically goes for the Democrats.

Obama will have to bring out record numbers of younger voters and other groups that historically have low turnouts in a General Election. If these people do as usual and don't show up at the Polls in November then Obama doesn't have a chance. If they show up in force it could be a very close race and he might roll to victory.

As the article says history is not on his side for this happening but some other historical trends have already been busted with his campaign so it's not unthinkable that it can happen for him in November.

Let's just pray it doesn't. Because it will be a long 4 years for the Pro-2nd Amendment crowd and those of us on the right in general if he wins.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:44:07 AM EDT

Quoted:
As the article says history is not on his side for this happening but some other historical trends have already been busted with his campaign so it's not unthinkable that it can happen for him in November.


The "history" that worries me is a repeat of an incident like senior citizen Bob Dole taking a header off the stage at a campaign event.  If McCain 'shows' his age, he'll drop in the polls faster than a cock pheasant with a load of #5's in the neck.  
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:46:52 AM EDT
The last time the Dems were expecting new young voters, they did not go to the polls.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:48:19 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.



Seriously.  We're not voting for McCain so much as voting against a commie that will destroy the integrity of this country,  But by all means, if you don't like McCain as much as you like Obama, go ahead and do whatever.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:54:48 AM EDT
height=8
Quoted:
height=8
Quoted:
Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.


FUCK IT!  McCain '08!  his?
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 5:55:33 AM EDT
height=8
Quoted:
CHANGE!


Here, about all I'll have left after Obama wins steals the presidency.

http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o21/tr1290/change.jpg
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 6:20:09 AM EDT

A different kind of old kind of candidate

June 3, 2008 link

From William Bennett:

[T]he Democratic party is about to nominate a far left candidate in the tradition of George McGovern, albeit without McGovern's military and political record.

The Democratic party is about to nominate a far-left candidate in the tradition of Michael Dukakis, albeit without Dukakis's executive experience as governor.

The Democratic party is about to nominate a far left candidate in the tradition of John Kerry, albeit without Kerry's record of years of service in the Senate.

The Democratic party is about to nominate an unvetted candidate in the tradition of Jimmy Carter, albeit without Jimmy Carter's religious integrity. . .


http://www.bennettmornings.com/blog?action=viewBlog&blogID=-213772461345176240
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 7:19:41 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:
Don't discount what stupidity and money can accomplish in the world today.


I pray that the scenario noted above is true and that Obama loses...but I am also astute enough to recognize that the above is absolutely on the mark.


The above two remarks sum up the evolution of America and the loss of values therein.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 7:27:00 AM EDT
The Problem as I see it...
Billery hinted that she would accept the Veep spot if Hussain asked her.

THAT could spell a doomsday ticket for McCain.  It would join the Dem ranks, since the
Billery supporters would expect her to be a sort of co-president like she aspired to be
with her husband.  It would allow Hussein renewed momentum, and would TOTALLY
dominate the mainstream media.  ALL they would talk about is the the FIRST black & FIRST
woman in the Whitehouse.  They will immediately start reporting it like it is a done deal.
Unfortunately by November, many republicans, particularly the more conservative ones, may
not turn out to vote... taking the attitude of what is the point.  This will set up a perfect storm.
Many of the Democrats that turn out will vote a strait Demo ticket... this would result in an even
higher control of congress by the Democrats.  THAT scenario would be a disaster.  They could & would
pass all sorts of Marxist legislation without any risk of resistance.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 7:34:35 AM EDT

Quoted:

Quoted:

Great!  So well end up with McCain!






You have two choices from here on out. McCain or a hard-core Marxist.

Sit and bitch about McCain and you get a Marxist as President.


There's no Ron Paul, there's no Bob Barr....there is McCain vs a Marxist.


Fucking decide already instead of needlessly bitching that your guy didn't make it or that McCain isn't everything to everybody, nobody is.



But when you put their economics statements side by side no one can tell who said what.
Six of one, half-dozen of another. Vote how you vote, but don't fool yourself into thinking they're any different.
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 7:37:43 AM EDT

Quoted:
CHANGE!


HOPE!
Link Posted: 6/4/2008 7:45:34 AM EDT
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