I don't want to read an encyclopedia, long article about everything going on. I just need a bit of a summary.



What's going on?

When did this start?

No more porn via internet.

Some corrupt asshole has been running the show for the last thirty years, and people have had enough.
 

If the people take over... are they likely to cause a shutdown of the Canal?

 

This is a summary that I wrote for someone a few days ago.

The news is reporting the protestors as "pro-democracy" protestors. That's inaccurate. They're not necessarily anti-democracy, but they're anti-Mubarak. Mubarak has been "president" of the country for the last 30 years. If there's an overarching theme for the protests, it's "Down with Mubarak"

The economy in Egypt is crap. It has been for a long time. There are a lot of socialist elements in play in terms of business ownership and especially media. There are state run TV and radio stations and they pretty much run the news, outside of Al Jazeera. Unemployment in Egypt has hit all-time highs and people are poor beyond poor. Basically they're mad as hell and not going to take it anymore, hence the protesting/rioting in the streets.

The police in Egypt are brutal. The police are on Mubarak's side. The military is not. So far the protestors have been welcoming the military into the cities. This is weird because it's unclear who ordered them to report there. It's quite possible that major factions within the Egyptian military have gone rogue and unit-level commanders are now in charge.

The Egyptian government shut down all internet and telephone service in the country, including cell phones. Their reasoning for this is that protestors were using the internet to organize. In related news, Obama has been pushing HARD for this same ability in the US.

On Friday Mubarak made a televised announcement that he fired his cabinet and the entire parliament and would be restaffing them on Monday. This added fuel to the fire. It's unclear if Mubarak is just so out of touch with the citizens that he doesn't understand that it's HIS head they're after, or he's just so power hungry that he will never relinquish control. At any rate, this announcement was taken by the people as a gigantic middle finger.

So the protests continue. It's not generally being reported very well in the US - I've been watching Al Jazeera English. But so far there have been at least 2000 injured and close to 100 dead, including 10-15 police officers. I have a strong feeling these numbers are severely low and will go up soon.

Egypt controls the Suez canal. This is a major oil shipping lane in the middle east (Suez is the strip of land that connects Africa to Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia). On Friday oil closed up 4.5% while the dow closed down 166 points and gold spiked up again. What happened in Egypt caused that. If the country crashes and burns, there's going to be a huge influence on the commodities and stock markets, not to mention on the region in general. Egypt is the most populous and largest Islam country in that area.

Which brings us to the next and most important point. Egypt has (had?) a secular government in a Muslim nation. The US government has been propping it up for the last 30 years. After Israel, Egypt is the #2 country in terms of foreign aid. The US has been pouring money into Egypt essentially to pacify them and get them to leave us (and Israel) alone. The government is essentially powerless at this point and it's unknown who will step up to lead the country. The worst possible outcome, which is fairly likely to happen, is that the Muslim Brotherhood or one of their puppets will take over. Explaining who and what the MB is would take a reaaaaaaaaaaaaally long time, but let's just say that MB was Al Queda before Al Queda existed. MB pulls the strings for them, Iran, and a bunch of other groups who are chiefly concerned with the death of the Great Satan (Israel and the US) and essentially reverting the entire world back to the middle ages.

Back in 1979, Jimmyh Carter, Menachim Begin (Israel) and Anwar Sadat (Egypt) had this Camp David Peace Accords.  Egypt had attacked Israel twice in the past, getting its ass kicked along with all other Arab/Islamic states.



In 1982, Sadat was killed.  And this asshole dictator takes over.  Egypt is poor, massive unemployment and people are pissed.



Because everyone in the area is pissed off and many other nations/states are having revolts, Egyptians thought this was their time.

Kind of a hard thing to pick sides.



1. Pro-Mubarak : Continued stable oil markets, continued use of the Suez Canal. One less big country that belongs to AQ types.

2. Anti-Mubarak : Instability in oil markets, possible loss of use of the Suez Canal... and one more country to worry about in terms of terrorism.





 

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

A guy who protected religious and secular minorities and shut down Islamist movements with brutal efficiency is about to get overthrown. Over 80% of nation is fundamentalist so we will probably see another Iran if they get their way.   Currently the Islamist movement is using words like "economy" and "freedom" to appeal to western sympathies so Mubarak can not react like he did in the past.

Don't forget the U.S. policy of supporting both the people of Egypt, while at the same time supporting the Egyptian gov't that is about to be overthrown by the people.........in short, Cluster-Fuck of Mythic Proportions.

We will likely end up helping them in their endeavors... only for them to turn around, charge an enormous fee to keep using their suez canal... and put all the money they make from that, into buying weapons to attack us and our allies through "unaffiliated" terrorist groups.

 

Why is it hard to pick sides? You listed three pros for one option and three cons for the other.



 

From Wikipedia:

Skyrocketing FOOD price inflation thanks to Fed Chairman Helicopter Ben Bernanke's "quantitative easing" and its impact on commodity prices across the globe.

Yes, it is that basic.

And you can expect more political instability. Many, many people in the world live on the edge of hunger.

[Per CNBC, Bloomberg and Larry Kudlow among a host of others]

Ahh it's not all bad...The counter balance is economics of tourism whereby Egypt relies for much of it's GDP. They can't get too crazy or Westerners won't come there and isolate them in other ways leaving them in worse shape. Honestly I'm not too worried about the economics angle, that won't be an issue unless it's a pan arab uprising and they get together with the oil card.

Sorta sums it up but is much more involved.   I don't hate to say it but... Glenn Beck is laying out the history of the region this week and the implications of various groups in control.    I still found the show rather mind blowing.
 

South Korea had 30% food price inflation over the last ONE year.

Indonesia, likewise.

Shit is going to get real if Helicopter Ben keeps thinking about his Wall St. buddies and forgets the hundreds of millions of hungry and angry people all over the world. Do you really think the headlines about the  "Best January in 14 years on Wall St." came for free, or are deserved based on the world economic/political situation?

Egyptians are just poorer than South Koreans, so they got hungry and angry sooner.

Regarding the canal it actually is overseen by a treaty that prevents a lot of what the MSM has been touting as ZOMG BREAKING NEWS!



It cannot be used as an instrument between waring nations.



Breaking the treaty would involve many of the countries listed in its clauses, including the US, Israel and others.



In other words not gonna happen but if it does... hide behind the ammo fort.

Even fiction writers have it figured out.  
"Wars aren't about religion.  Wars are between the haves and the have nots.  Religion is just one of the ways to choose up sides."    ––- Tom Clancy

hmmmm good. That means we have just cause just in case these fundamentalists get a bit too motivated....

 

Shit's fucked up.

Why will we have another Iran? Because we befriended a dictator who shut down Islamitst movements with brutal effeciency?  Again?  You sound kinda like Jimmy Carter.  Think Egypt is an island of stability?

One of those "He's a sonofabitch, but by God he's OUR sonofabitch." things?

exactly.



 

The rioters want big screen TVs........but they are going to end up with burkahs.

The guys with a PLAN are going to give them burkahs. Just like anything else 90/%  of those involved are more than likely just sheep.

Well, I'm not sure they know what they want at this point. Mob mentality ensures that at this point they're just pissed and smashing stuff up.

They want Mubarek gone - that much is clear. But the problem is I think they're going to take whoever shows up whispering sweet nothings, regardless of who that is.


Also, nice new avatar, doc.