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Posted: 9/2/2005 11:07:59 AM EDT
CNBC reporting 30 tankers with gas on the way from Europe. Should take a couple of weeks for situation to stabilize.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:16:02 AM EDT
That would last a medium sized city several days. Wont have any real impact on much of anything.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:17:05 AM EDT
tag
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:17:53 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:18:22 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
That would last a medium sized city several days. Wont have any real impact on much of anything.



It has already had an impact in the markets.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:22:33 AM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
30 Tankers is a helluva lot more than that.


Yes it is.
Why do people always say negative shit when they don't know WTF they are talking about?
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:22:59 AM EDT
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:28:29 AM EDT
Let's hope the German Wolfpacks don't torpedo these tankers...
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:29:40 AM EDT
Well, considering supertankers can carry over 100,000,000 gallons, depending on what kind of tankers they used, that could be a national supply of almost 10 days of gas.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:31:07 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Yes and we get 13 percent of our gas from our own gulf refineries, whats your point?

Those tankers are quite a bit more than you understand Doc.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:32:35 AM EDT
They will take a month to arrive................
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:40:07 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jrzy:

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Yes and we get 13 percent of our gas from our own gulf refineries, whats your point?

Those tankers are quite a bit more than you understand Doc.



The largest of these are the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), which can carry 200,000 tons or more of oil, and the Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC), which can manage over 300,000 tons. 1 gallon of gasoline equals 5.8 to 6.5 lbs.

Thats is roughly 100,000,000 gallons per tanker. You will need 3 to 4 tankers per day to meet the consumption needs. Total of 10 days of gasoline maybe more if the consumption rate falls as the price increases. That is assuming that they are only using the largest tankers.

No I understand totally. 30 tankers will have only a small impact on our consumption of gasoline. You are the one that doesnt understand that its a bandaid for a hemorrhage. Do the math before you spout off about who knows what and who doesnt, but thats your usual pattern isnt it. It will help us get over the the next couple of weeks maybe.



Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:41:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By wildearp:
They will take a month to arrive................



The fastest of the tankers will do 18 knots. So thats probably a high estimate but accurate depending on where they will unload.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:41:06 AM EDT
Uh, I heard delivery time was PRETTY FAR OFF.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:46:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 11:47:31 AM EDT by Max_Mike]

Originally Posted By ARDOC:

Originally Posted By jrzy:

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Yes and we get 13 percent of our gas from our own gulf refineries, whats your point?

Those tankers are quite a bit more than you understand Doc.



The largest of these are the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), which can carry 200,000 tons or more of oil, and the Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC), which can manage over 300,000 tons. 1 gallon of gasoline equals 5.8 to 6.5 lbs.

Thats is roughly 100,000,000 gallons per tanker. You will need 3 to 4 tankers per day to meet the consumption needs. Total of 10 days of gasoline maybe more if the consumption rate falls as the price increases. That is assuming that they are only using the largest tankers.

No I understand totally. 30 tankers will have only a small impact on our consumption of gasoline. You are the one that doesnt understand that its a bandaid for a hemorrhage. Do the math before you spout off about who knows what and who doesnt, but thats your usual pattern isnt it. It will help us get over the the next couple of weeks maybe.




That is not what you originally said…


That would last a medium sized city several days. Wont have any real impact on much of anything.

Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:47:06 AM EDT
Say...has anyone expressed "thanks" for this?

I know arguing over the stupidest shit is what we do here at ARFCOM, but atleast let's be appreciative.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:48:44 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Say...has anyone expressed "thanks" for this?

I know arguing over the stupidest shit is what we do here at ARFCOM, but atleast let's be appreciative.



No it is far easier to belittle and bitch.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:48:45 AM EDT
I may have understated what I meant but what I was saying was that it will have MINIMAL IMPACT on our requirements.

It will not effect the prices for any length of time. But it will do is buy us some time perhaps to get our refineries back on line.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:49:52 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Say...has anyone expressed "thanks" for this?

I know arguing over the stupidest shit is what we do here at ARFCOM, but atleast let's be appreciative.



Dude you better becareful or jrzy will want to meet you and challenge you to a fight.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:50:04 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
I may have understated what I meant but what I was saying was that it will have MINIMAL IMPACT on our requirements.

It will not effect the prices for any length of time. But it will do is buy us some time perhaps to get our refineries back on line.



I will agree with that.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:50:09 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:50:27 AM EDT

Originally Posted By CastorTroy:
Well, considering supertankers can carry over 100,000,000 gallons, depending on what kind of tankers they used, that could be a national supply of almost 10 days of gas.



If those supertankers were filled with yogurt, Rosie & Oprah could dust em off in one sitting.

Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:50:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Say...has anyone expressed "thanks" for this?

I know arguing over the stupidest shit is what we do here at ARFCOM, but atleast let's be appreciative.




WTF? Thank them? THey are PROFIT TAKING. That is why they are shipping fuel here - GREATER PROFIT.


That was the direct quote in the paper this morning - 'WHEN THE PRICE IS THIS HIGH, YOU CAN SHIP IT QUITE FAR AND STILL GET A GOOD PROFIT'
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:51:26 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:

Originally Posted By jrzy:

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Yes and we get 13 percent of our gas from our own gulf refineries, whats your point?

Those tankers are quite a bit more than you understand Doc.



The largest of these are the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), which can carry 200,000 tons or more of oil, and the Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC), which can manage over 300,000 tons. 1 gallon of gasoline equals 5.8 to 6.5 lbs.

Thats is roughly 100,000,000 gallons per tanker. You will need 3 to 4 tankers per day to meet the consumption needs. Total of 10 days of gasoline maybe more if the consumption rate falls as the price increases. That is assuming that they are only using the largest tankers.

No I understand totally. 30 tankers will have only a small impact on our consumption of gasoline. You are the one that doesnt understand that its a bandaid for a hemorrhage. Do the math before you spout off about who knows what and who doesnt, but thats your usual pattern isnt it. It will help us get over the the next couple of weeks maybe.






You're calculating the entire usage of the entire country.
You're not calculating the other oil we get to feed the national consumption.

You have to apply the 13 percent (gulf refineries) against the 30 tankers and then you get the true value of those 30 tankers.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:52:33 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:53:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 11:58:35 AM EDT by jkstexas2001]
This is exactly what happenned in the Oil Storm movie, after the hurricane hit New Orleans.

ETA: In the movie, the tankers didn't help the situation very much.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:54:20 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:56:28 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jrzy:

Originally Posted By ARDOC:

Originally Posted By jrzy:

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Yes and we get 13 percent of our gas from our own gulf refineries, whats your point?

Those tankers are quite a bit more than you understand Doc.



The largest of these are the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), which can carry 200,000 tons or more of oil, and the Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC), which can manage over 300,000 tons. 1 gallon of gasoline equals 5.8 to 6.5 lbs.

Thats is roughly 100,000,000 gallons per tanker. You will need 3 to 4 tankers per day to meet the consumption needs. Total of 10 days of gasoline maybe more if the consumption rate falls as the price increases. That is assuming that they are only using the largest tankers.

No I understand totally. 30 tankers will have only a small impact on our consumption of gasoline. You are the one that doesnt understand that its a bandaid for a hemorrhage. Do the math before you spout off about who knows what and who doesnt, but thats your usual pattern isnt it. It will help us get over the the next couple of weeks maybe.






You're calculating the entire usage of the entire country.
You're not calculating the other oil we get to feed the national consumption.

You have to apply the 13 percent (gulf refineries) against the 30 tankers and then you get the true value of those 30 tankers.



We already import a small percentage of refined gasoline. The main problem is that our refineries are old and no new ones have been built for several years.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:57:47 AM EDT

Originally Posted By jrzy:
You're calculating the entire usage of the entire country.
You're not calculating the other oil we get to feed the national consumption.

You have to apply the 13 percent (gulf refineries) against the 30 tankers and then you get the true value of those 30 tankers.



Correct, as this is already refined gas and not crude… meaning the impact will be important in holding prices down…

Which is much of the intent… the European know the have to keep gas prices from getting out of hand here because that would drive up world prices and therefore their prices.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:57:53 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 11:58:14 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARDOC:
http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

WE (the US) consume 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline a DAY.



Now that is just not true!

I just consumed 3.5 gals, or a little less. It was the frist time I moved the car all week.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:00:11 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Damn, if you love that movie so much, why don't you marry it?





LMFAO!
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:01:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Damn, if you love that movie so much, why don't you marry it?



If you watched the movie and compared what is happenning before our eyes, you'd be freaked out, too. Don't friggin jump on my case about being concerned here. So far, events are playing out just like the movie. Some folks would know they need to get prepared if it hit them in the head with a baseball bat.

In the movie, the tankers did not help assuage the situation very much, because they only made a small dent in the problem.

Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:01:42 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Damn, if you love that movie so much, why don't you marry it?



Laugh all you want, but movies can come true.



Look at "Y2K", no damage you might say? I THINK NOT.



It destroyed Ken Olin's career.

Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:02:41 PM EDT
We'll see who is laughing in six months. I normally refrain from saying I told you so, but I will not in this case.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:03:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Max_Mike:

Originally Posted By jrzy:
You're calculating the entire usage of the entire country.
You're not calculating the other oil we get to feed the national consumption.

You have to apply the 13 percent (gulf refineries) against the 30 tankers and then you get the true value of those 30 tankers.



Correct, as this is already refined gas and not crude… meaning the impact will be important in holding prices down…

Which is much of the intent… the European know the have to keep gas prices from getting out of hand here because that would drive up world prices and therefore their prices.



No I am talking about refined gasoline not crude. Their prices to support their socialist countries are already much higher then what we pay. It may meet any shortfall but it will not keep our prices down, they are will also receive top dollar for their product as well and will make significant amounts of money on this transaction.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:04:23 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:06:03 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:06:41 PM EDT
How many gallons of gas do you get from a barrel of oil after it is refined?
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:06:50 PM EDT
Its better than nothing
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:07:52 PM EDT

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

In the movie, the tankers did not help assuage the situation very much, because they only made a small dent in the problem.






Dude, I'm sorry, but will you read what you wrote outloud?

It was a MOVIE......with a script.



If the tankers would have worked the movie would have been over.
They are dumb in Hollywood, but not that dumb.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:09:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 12:12:27 PM EDT by Max_Mike]

Originally Posted By jkstexas2001:

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Damn, if you love that movie so much, why don't you marry it?



If you watched the movie and compared what is happenning before our eyes, you'd be freaked out, too. Don't friggin jump on my case about being concerned here. So far, events are playing out just like the movie. Some folks would know they need to get prepared if it hit them in the head with a baseball bat.

In the movie, the tankers did not help assuage the situation very much, because they only made a small dent in the problem.




Your analysis is bogus.

What is going on in NO don’t have a damn thing to do with oil…it just don’t

Well quite frankly the chaos predicted in the movie is just not happening.

Gas prices are high but I can get it and now appears that that is not going to change… at least the markets think so. Oil prices are down as are gas futures… not exactly consistent with your movie hysterics.

What Europe committed to today will more than make up US refined shortfalls until the refineries get back on line

It is a movie, it is not real.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:22:40 PM EDT
Alrighty, lets do a little math.

The US consumes 320,500,000 gallons of oil a day.

13% of the US refining capability is 'down' at this moment.

That means, to make up the shortfall, we need 41,665,000 gallons of oil a day.

Let's assume that these aren't the very largest tankers, but instead are about 60% of the largest size. In reality, they're probably bigger than that on average, but let's be pessimistic here.

That would mean that the average tanker would bring in ~60,000,000 gallons. Or roughly enough to cover the shortfall for a day and a half. That would mean that 30 tankers would be enough to completely cover the shortfall for ~45 days.

45 days worth of fuel.

That's alot. A month and a half.

If those tankers were 80% size, it would be 60 days. If they were the very largest tankers, we're looking at 75 days.

Even the bad scenarios look pretty rosy.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:26:11 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:30:58 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ASUsax:
Alrighty, lets do a little math.

The US consumes 320,500,000 gallons of oil a day.

13% of the US refining capability is 'down' at this moment.

That means, to make up the shortfall, we need 41,665,000 gallons of oil a day.

Let's assume that these aren't the very largest tankers, but instead are about 60% of the largest size. In reality, they're probably bigger than that on average, but let's be pessimistic here.

That would mean that the average tanker would bring in ~60,000,000 gallons. Or roughly enough to cover the shortfall for a day and a half. That would mean that 30 tankers would be enough to completely cover the shortfall for ~45 days.

45 days worth of fuel.

That's alot. A month and a half.

If those tankers were 80% size, it would be 60 days. If they were the very largest tankers, we're looking at 75 days.

Even the bad scenarios look pretty rosy.



I've never seen oil refered to in gallons, only barrels. These tankers are bringing gas correct, not oil?
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:33:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/2/2005 12:34:32 PM EDT by Special-K]
I am thankful for the help, actually, but I am curious about something.


As I understand it we have a sizeable stockpile of crude in our strategic reserves. But it's still unrefined crude. The Euro's include refined gasoline in their stockpiles. I would assume diesel and others also.

Why don't we also have our own stockpiles of already refined fuel - especially diesel and JP8 for the military. The only thing I can think of is difficulty in long term storage and the need to rotate our stock - not as much of a problem with crude as it's already been in the ground for however many millions of years.

Or am I just totally wrong on this?

-K
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:34:13 PM EDT

Originally Posted By mcantu:
I've never seen oil refered to in gallons, only barrels. These tankers are bringing gas correct, not oil?



Correct they are bringing refined gasoline NOT crude… BTW much of this gas was not importable in to the US last week due to EPA requirement which have been now waived
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:37:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Special-K:
I am thankful for the help, actually, but I am curious about something.


As I understand it we have a sizeable stockpile of crude in our strategic reserves. But it's still unrefined crude. The Euro's include refined gasoline in their stockpiles. I would assume diesel and others also.

Why don't we also have our own stockpiles of already refined fuel - especially diesel and JP8 for the military. The only thing I can think of is difficulty in long term storage and the need to rotate our stock - not as much of a problem with crude as it's already been in the ground for however many millions of years.

Or am I just totally wrong on this?

-K



You cannot build refined reserves when you have a shortage of refining capacity. You would have to buy gas for the reserves on the spot market driving up prices.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:39:16 PM EDT
Yes, the problem with storing gasoline is that it goes stale after a period of months (if you don't believe me, fill the tank on your car and then let it sit there for three months. See how well it runs afterward). So you'd have to be constantly rotating your stock in and out in order to assure that you dont have a huge supply of what amounts to garbage.
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:40:53 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/2/2005 12:47:00 PM EDT
I wouldn't want to be on one of those tankers with a chronic chain smoker
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