Posted: 2/26/2007 8:51:09 PM EDT
In the U.S. we call it: 'Busted'
Which lesser of two evils will he choose moving forward? He's on our shitlist now so....
February 26, 2007 6:13 PM
Brian Ross Reports:
In a highly unusual move, the deputy director of the CIA, Stephen R. Kappes, was flown to Pakistan to personally present President Pervez Musharraf today with "compelling" CIA evidence of al Qaeda's resurgence on Pakistani soil, U.S. officials say.
Kappes joined Vice President Dick Cheney for the surprise showdown meeting in Musharraf's office in Pakistan.
The CIA evidence reportedly included satellite photos and electronic intercepts of al Qaeda leaders operating in Pakistan.
"President Musharraf is the kind of man who doesn't move until he sees the hard facts in front of his face," said Mansoor Ijaz, a counterterrorism analyst who has dealt with Musharraf.
As ABCNews.com reported earlier this month, al Qaeda training camps have re-emerged in the Waziristan territory of Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan.
"We are now seeing the recreation of al Qaeda central," said ABC News consultant Richard Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism chief.
U.S. officials say Musharraf has been in denial about the comeback of al Qaeda on his soil, ignoring evidence presented to him by NATO commanders in Afghanistan.
Musharraf pulled his Army troops out of Waziristan last September as part of a "peace deal" with tribal leaders. In an appearance with President Bush at the White House on Sept. 22, Musharraf vowed he would not tolerate "al Qaeda activity in our tribal agency or across the border in Afghanistan."
Since, then, al Qaeda and Taliban attacks on U.S. and NATO troops across the border have more than tripled.
Why am I getting visions of Cambodia 1970 here...
I have to wonder if it's as "compelling" as their evidence of WMD's in Iraq???
Hey Musharraf!!! ..Got Yah...
Goin too "Cowboy the F#ck Up" now or what!!!!
Frankely Pakistan is too much to deal with with Iran unsecured and most of the Nato troops in Afghanistan unuseable. If Musharif refuses, is India willing to do a favor for us?
If Musharaf "cowboys up" we may very well see the Pakistani government topple and their government and nuclear arsenal in the hands of a true terrorist state. The whole situation is a catch-22.
let's see, our ally Pakistan , military dictator , huge Islamic popualtion that hates the U.S., & they have NUKES
officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ............
General Pervez Musharraf is a military statesman and currently the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
and the Chief of Army Staff of the Pakistan Army.
He took power on October 12, 1999 after a coup d'état ousting Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister, and declared himself President on June 20, 2001.
Musharraf became de facto Head of Government (using the title Chief Executive and assuming extensive powers) of Pakistan following a bloodless coup d'état on 12 October 1999. That day, the constitutional Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attempted to dismiss Musharraf and install Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director Khwaja Ziauddin in his place. Musharraf, who was out of the country, boarded a commercial airliner to return to Pakistan. Senior Army generals refused to accept Musharraf's dismissal. Sharif ordered the Karachi airport closed to prevent the landing of the airliner, which then circled the skies over Karachi. In the coup, the generals ousted Sharif's administration and took over the airport. The plane landed with allegedly only a few minutes of fuel to spare, and Musharraf assumed control of the government. Sharif was put under house arrest and later exiled. He and other democratic leaders have subsequently been prevented from entering Pakistan. Reportedly, the disagreement between Musharraf and Sharif centered around the Prime Minister's desire to find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
The existing President of Pakistan, Rafiq Tarar, remained in office until June 2001. Musharraf formally appointed himself President on June 20, 2001, just days before his scheduled visit to Agra for talks with India.
Pakistan has an estimated population of 169,270,617, as of in 2007. Pakistan has the world's sixth largest population, placing it higher than Russia, and lower than Brazil. Because of Pakistan's high growth rate, it is expected to surpass Brazil in population in the year 2020.
The demographics of religion in Pakistan were significantly influenced in 1947 by the movement of Muslims to Pakistan, and Hindus and Sikhs to India. Census data indicates that 96% of the population are Muslims, of whom nearly 80% are Sunni Muslims and 19% are Shi'a Muslims.
The remainder comprises Christians, Hindus, Jews, Sikhs, Parsis, Ahmadis, Buddhists, and Animists (mainly the Kalasha of Chitral). Pakistan is the second most populous Muslim-majority country and also has the one of the largest Shi'a populations of any country. As of 2006, an estimated 2.5 million refugees — approximately 81.5% being ethnic Pashtuns — remain in Pakistan as a result of the wars in Afghanistan.
During the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s Pakistan was a crucial US ally, but relations soured in the 1990s, when sanctions were applied by the US over suspicions of Pakistan's nuclear activities. The September 11 attacks and the subsequent War on Terrorism have seen an improvement in US–Pakistan ties, especially after Pakistan ended its support of the Taliban regime in Kabul. In January 2004, founder of Pakistani nuclear program A. Q. Khan confessed of nuclear proliferation to Libya, Iran and North Korea. On 5 February 2004, the president Pervez Musharraf, announced that he had pardoned A. Q. Khan. At present, A. Q. Khan is ailing and under house arrest.
Pakistan has long had troubled relations with neighbouring India. The long-running dispute over Kashmir resulted in full fledged wars in 1947 and 1965. Civil war in 1971 flared into the simultaneous Bangladeshi Liberation War and the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971.
Pakistan conducted nuclear weapon tests in 1998 to counterbalance India's nuclear explosion (Smiling Buddha) of 1974
and Pokhran-II of 1998 respectively. and became the only Muslim nuclear weapons state.
Pakistan maintains close economic, military and political relationships with the People's Republic of China.
Pakistan also faces instability in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, where some tribal leaders support the Taliban. Pakistan has had to deploy the army in these regions to suppress the local unrest, in Waziristan.
Despite what the lamestream media keeps chanting, we did indeed find WMDs in Iraq.
...now, liberals might backpedal and try to "redifine" WMDs as only ready to go nukes, but that is not a valid arguement. Anybody can win an arguement if they can go back in time and change what they said.
Pakistan is our friend.
Thats why we have been making such nice friends with India.
The problem is, we didn't find any that ACTUALLY WORKED!!!!!
So we are not justified in shooting the criminal becasue his gun jammed?
Pakistan WAS our friend in the days of the cold war.
We are trying not to add more enemies but
they have gone way across the line.
The Saudis cannot control them anymore, so we need to force Musharref to chose sides.
But with our current Congress, we wont act on it by ourselves.
But if the Jihadi panic and overthrow Musharref- we could help India take care of it.
Yeah... I'm sure India is willing to risk getting itself nuked for us.
Wasn't pakistan a HUGE supporter of the taliban until it became the, well, more unpopular thing to do (post Sept 11)?
The Taliban was/is made up of old Mujahideen fighters. They're primarily Pashtun which is one of the largest ethnic groups in Pakistan. Whether or not Pakistan provided material support to them I don't know, but they certainly permit them to operate and and move freely between their boarders.
Much of Pakistan's military is made up of Taliban supporters and sympathizers. Hell, the majority of them are Pashtun themselves, so it's no wonder nothing gets accomplished.
Like they are not going to get nuked if Al Qaida takes over
If Musharraf allows the US to go in after AQ in the Tribal Areas or even if he does it himself with Paki troops he will probably have a revolt on his hands. The guy's been walking a tight rope since 2001 and it's amazing that he hasn't fallen off yet. He probably should have gotten the Nobel Peace Prize in '02 for avoiding war with India while simultaneously keeping his own country together and helping the US in Afghanistan and the GWOT.
The outcomes of an Islamic revolution in Pakistan are all pretty ugly. We could probably destroy the Paki nuclear capability fairly quickly and completely, but that's not going to help ease tensions. We don't have the troops or assets to invade Pakistan or even to interdict the mountains of supplies and columns of muj that would stream into Afghanistan. It would be a replay of the '80's with us playing the Sovs and the Iranians and Chinese playing us. In addition, Musharraf isn't the only unelected leader trying to maintain this balance in a country full of radicals. If a revolution went well in Pakistan, followed by US bombing of nuke facilities and the Tribal Areas, we might see general unrest and violence in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Of course we can't allow AQ and the Taliban to lead an unmolested like either.
A lot of those problems are avoided with a Indian invasion.
Initiation of the insurgency with U.S. and Pakistani support
In June of 1975, fundamentalists attempted to overthrow the PDPA government. They started the insurgent movement in the Panjshir valley, some 100 kilometers north of Kabul, and in a number of other provinces of the country. However, government forces easily suppressed the insurgency and a sizable portion of the insurgents defected and settled in Pakistan where they had total freedom of action. In May 1978, the insurgents found their first base in Pakistan to train armed bands for combat in Afghanistan. Afterwards, similar centers were found in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
Numerous political, military and covert actions by US-backed Pakistan were reported. These included political activities and propaganda hostile to the government of Afghanistan taking place in Pakistan, border crossings of men and material from Pakistan to Afghanistan, cross-border firings, acts of sabotage, rocket attacks on major urban centres, violations of Afghan airspace by Pakistani aircraft, the continued presence in Pakistan of training camps and arms depots for Afghan insurgent groups, and direct involvement by Pakistani military personnel inside Afghanistan, as well as restrictions placed on refugees who wished to return to Afghanistan.
The former director of the CIA and current Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, stated in his memoirs "From the Shadows", that American intelligence services began to aid the opposing factions in Afghanistan 6 months before the Soviet deployment. On July 3, 1979, US President Jimmy Carter signed a directive authorizing the CIA to conduct covert propaganda operations against the revolutionary regime.
Carter advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski stated "According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise." Brzezinski himself played a fundamental role in crafting U.S. policy, which, unbeknownst even to the Mujahideen, was part of a larger strategy "to induce a Soviet military intervention." In a 1998 interview with Le Nouvel Observateur, Brzezinski recalled proudly:
"That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Soviets into the Afghan trap..." "The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter. We now have the opportunity of giving to the Soviet Union its Vietnam War."
By the mid-1980s, the Afghan resistance movement, receptive to assistance from the United States, United Kingdom, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and others, contributed to Moscow's high military costs and strained international relations. Thus, Afghan guerrillas were armed, funded, and trained mostly by the US and Pakistan. The U.S. viewed the conflict in Afghanistan as an integral Cold War struggle, and the CIA provided assistance to anti-Soviet forces through the Pakistani ISI, in a program called Operation Cyclone. A similar movement occurred in the Muslim world, bringing contingents of so-called Afghan Arabs (hailed by US President Ronald Reagan as "freedom fighters"), foreign fighters recruited from the Muslim world to wage jihad against the communists. Notable among them was a young Saudi named Osama bin Laden, whose Arab group eventually evolved into Al-Qaeda. The US government maintains its support was limited to the indigenous Afghan mujahideen, and Osama bin Laden's participation in the conflict was unrelated to CIA programs. Regardless, the US program encouraged similar funding systems to come through the Arab Muslim world.
Of particular significance was the donation of American-made FIM-92 Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, which increased aircraft losses of the Soviet Air Force. However, many field commanders, including Ahmad Shah Massoud, stated that the Stingers' impact was much exaggerated. Also, while guerrillas were able to fire at aircraft landing at and taking off from airstrips and airbases, anti-missile flares limited their effectiveness.
The Afghan insurgents employed chemical weapons in strength. They used an unstable poisonous substance that acted as an irritant. The Afghan resistance resorted to terrorist methods as well. The Mujahideen leaders paid great attention to sabotage and terrorist activities. The more common types of sabotage included damaging power lines, knocking out pipelines, radio stations, blowing up government office buildings, air terminals, hotels, cinemas, and so on. From 1985 through 1987, over 1800 terrorist acts were recorded. In the border region with Pakistan, the mujahideen would often launch 800 rockets per day. Between April 1985 and January 1987, they carried out over 23,500 shelling attacks on government targets. The mujahideen surveyed firing positions that they normally located near villages within the range of Soviet artillery posts. They put the villagers in danger of death from Soviet retaliation. The mujahideen used mine warfare heavily. Often, they would enlist the services of the local inhabitants and even children.
The Washington Post reported "the favorite tactic of the Islamic tribesmen is to torture victims by first cutting off their noses, ears, and genitals, then removing one slice of skin after another"
They systematically targeted civilian infrastructure and government installations. They concentrated on knocking out bridges, closing major roads, destroying convoys, disrupting the electric power system and industrial production, and attacking police stations and Soviet military installations and air bases. They assassinated government officials and PDPA members. They laid to siege small rural outposts. In March 1982, a bomb exploded at the Ministry of Education, damaging several buildings. In the same month, a widespread power failure darkened Kabul when a pylon on the transmission line from the Naghlu power station was blown up. In June 1982 a column of about 1000 young party members sent out to work in the Panjshir valley were ambushed within 20 miles of Kabul, with heavy loss of life. On 4 September 1985, terrorists shot down a domestic Bakhtar Airlines plane as it took off from Kandahar airport, killing all 52 people aboard.
Terrorist groups had three to five men in each. After they received their mission to kill this or that government statesman, they busied themselves with studying his pattern of life and its details and then selecting the method of fulfilling their established mission. They practiced shooting at automobiles, shooting out of automobiles, laying mines in government accommodation or houses, using poison, and rigging explosive charges in transport.
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Special Service Group (SSG) were actively involved in the conflict, and in cooperation with the CIA and the United States Army Special Forces supported the armed struggle against the Soviets.
In May 1985, the seven principal rebel organizations formed the Seven Party Mujahideen Alliance to coordinate their military operations against the Soviet army. Late in 1985, the groups were active in and around Kabul, unleashing rocket attacks and conducting operations against the communist government.
By mid-1987 Soviet Union announced it was withdrawing its forces. Sibghatullah Mojaddedi was selected as the head of the Interim Islamic State of Afghanistan, in an attempt to reassert its legitimacy against the Moscow-sponsored Kabul regime. Mojaddedi, as head of the Interim Afghan Government, met with then President of the United States George H.W. Bush, achieving a critical diplomatic victory for the Afghan resistance.
Defeat of the Kabul government was their solution for peace. This confidence, sharpened by their distrust of the UN, virtually guaranteed their refusal to accept a political compromise.
International involvement and aid to the Afghan insurrection
The deployment of Soviet troops in Afghanistan obstructed Pakistan's efforts to dominate Afghanistan by proxy. United States President Jimmy Carter had accepted the view that "Soviet aggression" could not be viewed as an isolated event of limited geographical importance but had to be contested as a potential threat to the Persian Gulf region. The uncertain scope of the final objective of Moscow in its sudden southward plunge made the American stake in an independent Pakistan all the more important.
After the Soviet deployment, Pakistan's military dictator General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq started accepting financial aid from the Western powers to aid the Mujahideen. The United States, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia became major financial contributors to General Zia, who, as ruler of a neighboring country, greatly helped by ensuring the Afghan resistance was well-trained and well-funded.
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence and Special Service Group now became actively involved in the conflict against the Soviets. After Ronald Reagan became the new United States President in 1981, aid for the Mujahideen through Zia's Pakistan significantly increased. In retaliation, the KHAD, under Afghan leader Mohammad Najibullah, carried out (according to the Mitrokhin archives and other sources) a large number of operations against Pakistan, which also suffered from an influx of weaponry and drugs from Afghanistan. In the 1980s, as the front-line state in the anti-Soviet struggle, Pakistan received substantial aid from the United States and took in millions of Afghan (mostly Pashtun) refugees fleeing the Soviet occupation. Although the refugees were controlled within Pakistan's largest province, Balochistan under then-martial law ruler General Rahimuddin Khan, the influx of so many refugees - believed to be the largest refugee population in the world - into several other regions had a heavy impact on Pakistan and its effects continue to this day. Despite this, Pakistan played a significant role in the eventual withdrawal of Soviet military personnel from Afghanistan.
Afghan Civil War (1989-1992)
The civil war continued in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. The Soviet Union left Afghanistan deep in winter with intimations of panic among Kabul officials. The Afghan Resistance was poised to attack provincial towns and cities and eventually Kabul, if necessary.
Najibullah's regime, though failing to win popular support, territory, or international recognition, was able to remain in power until 1992. Kabul had achieved a stalemate that exposed the Mujahedin's weaknesses, political and military. For nearly three years, Najibullah's government successfully defended itself against Mujahedin attacks, factions within the government had also developed connections with its opponents. According to Russian publicist Andrey Karaulov, the main reason why Najibullah lost power was the fact Russia refused to sell oil products to Afghanistan in 1992 for political reasons (the new Russian government did not want to support the former communists) and effectively triggered a blockade.
The defection of General Abdul Rashid Dostam and his Uzbek militia, in March 1992, seriously undermined Najibullah's control of the state. In April, Kabul ultimately fell to the Mujahedin because the factions in the government had finally pulled it apart.
The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (also Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI) is the largest and most powerful of the three main branches of Pakistan's intelligence agencies.
ISI is responsible for gathering and cataloging foreign and domestic intelligence, and the smooth coordination of intelligence between Pakistan's three main military branches. Obtaining intelligence can come either from surveillance, interception, monitoring of communications, or conducting offensive, intelligence-gathering or espionage missions during times of war. Apart from gathering information, the ISI is also responsible for training spies, the security of the Pakistani nuclear program, and the security of top Pakistani army generals.
The ISI regained its lost glory after Gen. Zia ul-Haq seized power in July 1977. Under his reign, the ISI was expanded by making it responsible for the collection of intelligence about the Sindh based Communist party and monitoring the Shia organization after the Iranian revolution of 1979, as well as monitoring various political parties such as the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). During the Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980s saw the enhancement of the covert action capabilities of the ISI by the CIA. A number of officers from the ISI's Covert Action Division received training in the US and many covert action experts of the CIA were attached to the ISI to guide it in its operations against the Soviet troops by using the Afghan Mujahideen, Islamic fundamentalists of Pakistan and Arab volunteers.
In 1988, Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq initiated Operation Tupac which was designation of a three part action plan for the liberation of Kashmir, initiated after the failure of Operation Gibraltar. The name of the operation came from Túpac Amaru II, the 18th century prince who led the war of liberation in Peru against Spanish rule. By May 1996, at least six major militant organizations, and several smaller ones, operated in Kashmir. Their forces are variously estimated at between 5,000 and 10,000 armed men and were mostly of Indian-Kashmiri origin. They were roughly divided between those who support independence and those who support accession to Pakistan. The ISI is believed to have played a key role in masterminding the Kargil War.
During 1998-1999 the ISI Director General was sidelined due to his relationship with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and General Muhammad Aziz Khan was in operation control and directly answerable only to General Pervez Musharraf. During this time the ISI was contributing greatly to the Taliban.
ISI, CIA and Mossad carried out a covert transfer of Soviet made PLO and Lebanese weapons captured by the Israelis during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982 and their subsequent transfer to Pakistan and then into Afghanistan. All knowledge of this weapon transfer was kept secret and was only made public recently.
ISI played a central role in the U.S.-backed guerrilla war to oust the Soviet Army from Afghanistan in the 1980s. That Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-backed effort flooded Pakistan with weapons and with Afghan, Pakistani and Arab "mujahideen", who were motivated to fight as a united force protecting fellow Muslims in Soviet occupied Afghanistan. The CIA relied on the ISI to train fighters, distribute arms, and channel money. The ISI trained about 83,000 Afghan mujahideen between 1983 and 1997, and dispatched them to Afghanistan.
CIA through the ISI promoted the smuggling of heroin into Afghanistan in order to turn the Soviet troops into heroin addicts and thus greatly reducing their fighting potential.
Major General Sultan Habib who was an operative of the ISI's Joint Intelligence Miscellaneous department successfully procured nuclear material while being posted as the Defense Attaché in the Pakistani Embassy in Moscow from 1991 to 1993 and concurrently obtaining other materials from Central Asian Republics, Poland and the former Czechoslovakia. After Moscow, Major General Habib then coordinated shipping of missiles from North Korea and the training of Pakistani experts in the missile production. These two acts greatly enhanced Pakistan's Nuclear weapons program and their missile delivery systems.
ISI engineered the takeover of Afghanistan by the hard-line Islamic Taliban regime after the fall of the Communist government in Kabul in 1992.
In January 1993, the United States placed Pakistan on the watch list of such countries which were suspected of sponsoring international terrorism. This decision was made in part because the current head of the ISI in 1993, Lt. Gen. Nasir, had become a stumbling block in American efforts to buy back hundreds of shoulder-fired, surface-to-air FIM-92 Stinger missiles from the Afghan Mujahideen and was assisting organizations such as Harkat ul-Ansar, which had been branded as a terrorist organization by the US. Once Nasir's tenure as ISI chief ended, the US removed Pakistan from the terrorism watch list.
China has been a steady source of military equipment and has cooperated with Pakistan in setting up weapons production and modernization facilities. Within months of the 1965 and 1971 wars, China began to re-supply the depleted Pakistani forces. Between 1965 and 1982, China was Pakistan's main military supplier, and materiel has continued to be transferred.
The Pakistani military's close ties to the nations of the Middle East are based on a combination of geography and shared religion. The closest ties are with Saudi Arabia--a sporadically generous patron; much of the equipment bought from the United States during the 1980s, for example, was paid for by the Saudis. The smaller Persian Gulf states also have been sources of important financial support. The flow of benefits has been reciprocated. Beginning in the 1960s, Pakistanis have been detailed as instructors and trainers in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistani pilots, sailors, and technicians have played key roles in some Persian Gulf military forces, and Arabs have been trained both in their home countries and in military training establishments in Pakistan.
Pakistan enjoyed strong military relations with Iran during the Shah era. Both Pakistan and Iran were in the American camp opposing the Soviet Union and its allies which included India. During the 1965 war of Pakistan with India the Shah provided free fuel to the Pakistani planes who used to land on Iranian soil, refuel and the take off. After the Iranian revolution, Pakistan was among the first countries to recognize the new Iranian government and continued to maintain strong military relations. Iran sent its Military officers and personnel to be trained in Pakistani academies when military and diplomatic ties with the USA was severed following the hostage taking of the US Embassy. Pakistan also helped give spare parts and other items to the largely American equipped Iranian Military. The relations began to deteriorate when the Soviet war in Afghanistan caused large number of Sunni foreign fighters to arrive in Pakistan. Their extremist views towards Shia caused tensions to rise between Sunni and Shia communities in Pakistan much to the discomfort of Iran. The Arab countries and USA pressured Pakistan to stop its military aid to Iran due to the Iraq-Iran War in which USA and Sunni Arab countries were backing Iraq. Iran was blamed for the rising ethnic tensions between Sunni and Shia because of Pakistan's support of Iraq during the Iraq-Iraq war. Relations continued to decline in the 1990s when with Pakistan's help, the Sunni extremist, Taliban came to power in Afghanistan. Iran and the Taliban almost went to war in 1997 over territorial and drug trafficking disputes. Throughout the 80s and 90s, Iran move closer to India.
After 9/11 and the overthrow of the Taliban, Pakistan and Iran have begun re-build their ties. Delegations have been exchanged, and Pakistan has sold military equipment to Iran. Pakistan also has military ties with Turkey and would like to use these, as well as its Iranian connections, as a bridge to the new Muslim states of Central Asia.
The Pakistan military possesses nuclear weapons and sufficient means, through a range of missiles and aircraft — to deliver these over considerably long distances. However, unlike India, Pakistan does not have no-first-use policy and maintains the use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to India to offset the large conventional advantage India enjoys over Pakistan.
Pakistan is not a part of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing concerns that it unfairly favours the established nuclear powers, and provides no provision for complete nuclear disarmament. The Strategic Nuclear Command forms part of Pakistan's National Command Authority which is responsible for the management of the country's tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.
Pakistan's nuclear program is based primarily on highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is produced at the A. Q. Khan Research Laboratory at Kahuta, a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. The Kahuta facility has been in use since the early 1980s. By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation, and Pakistan continued its pursuit of expanded uranium enrichment capabilities.
In the 1990s Pakistan began to pursue plutonium production capabilities. With Chinese assistance, Pakistan built the 40 MWt (megawatt thermal) Khusab research reactor at Joharabad, and in April 1998, Pakistan announced that the reactor was operational. According to public statements made by US officials, this unsafeguarded heavy water reactor can produce up to 8 to 10 kilograms of plutonium per year.
The reactor could also produce tritium if it were loaded with lithium-6 although this is unnecessary for weapons purposes because modern nuclear weapon designs use Li6 directly. According to J. Cirincione of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Khusab's plutonium production capacity could allow Pakistan to develop lighter nuclear warheads that would be easier to deliver with a ballistic missile.
Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the New Labs reprocessing plant next to Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi and at the larger Chasma nuclear power plant, neither of which are subject to IAEA inspection.
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads with HEU reserves for 30-52 additional warheads.
The US Navy Center for Contemporary Conflict estimates that Pakistan possesses between a low of 35 and a high of 95 nuclear warheads, with a median of 60.
The NRDC and the Carnegie Foundation estimates of approx 50 weapons are 2002-3 estimates.
Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. The NRDC also thinks that Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons per annum based on the estimation of 5kg of Plunonium per warhead. Pakistan also claims that the fissile cores are stored separately from the other non-nuclear explosive packages, which Islamabad says can be put together rather quickly.
In the past, the People's Republic of China played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and technology elsewhere. According to a 2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and has provided critical assistance in the construction of Pakistan's nuclear facilities. This assistance was illegal, per the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, of which China is a signatory.
Man, I don't know. Lot of ifs there. Seems like they'd have to invade AND occupy-just taking Kashmir and a control zone wouldn't do it.
Familiar with Samuel Huntington and the "Clash of Civilizations" theory? Could be a nasty century.