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Posted: 8/20/2004 3:09:57 AM EST
(CBS) The race for the presidency is now essentially tied, with a gap between the two major party candidates within this poll’s margin of error. Voters are paying more attention to this campaign now than at this point four years ago, and their overall opinions about each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses remain relatively stable.

Just after the Democratic convention, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by a small margin; the recent tightening of the race reflects a loss of support for Kerry among some of this election’s most contested groups: Independents, veterans and Catholic voters.

If the presidential election were being held today, and Ralph Nader were on the ballot in most states, 46 percent of voters said they would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, and 45 percent would support George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. The Nader-Camejo ticket, which is having a difficult time making the ballot in many states, receives just 1 percent of the vote.

PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE
(Registered voters)

Now
Kerry-Edwards
46%
Bush-Cheney
45%
Nader-Camejo
1%

Post-Democratic convention
Kerry-Edwards
48%
Bush-Cheney
43%
Nader-Camejo
3%

Just after the Democratic convention Kerry had a five-point lead over Bush, 48 percent to 43 percent, with Nader receiving 3 percent.


comment : CBS gave Kerry a 5 point lead before the SwiftVet campaign and since the SwiftVets campaign that has slipped to 1 point....SWEEEEEEEEEET
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:14:40 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/20/2004 3:17:56 AM EST by Cypher214]
Honestly I think the AOL poll is a more accurate representation of voter opinion.


worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39932


Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:16:38 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/20/2004 3:17:42 AM EST by sgtar15]
JESUS H CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!

Bush WILL take 45 states.


Why?


Because God wants it that way.


Polls don't mean SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SGatr15
\

PS And no more of this "IF" bullshit!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:19:43 AM EST
The dirty secret of polls -

Phone polls are reaching the "home at 2PM" crowd - overrepresenting the Jerry Springer demographic. They skew results toward the useless, unproductive brainless demographic, who all naturally lean toward the "whatcha gonna give me" Democratic candidates.

But that demographic also largely does not vote.

I would only be worried about one of these polls if it had a 12-15% margin for Kerry.


A truely representative poll would call businesses and poll all working people - the ones who are routinely leading productive lives, also being the ones who vote.


Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:22:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/20/2004 3:23:26 AM EST by Cypher214]

Originally Posted By garandman:
The dirty secret of polls -

Phone polls are reaching the "home at 2PM" crowd - overrepresenting the Jerry Springer demographic. They skew results toward the useless, unproductive brainless demographic, who all naturally lean toward the "whatcha gonna give me" Democratic candidates.

But that demographic also largely does not vote.

I would only be worried about one of these polls if it had a 12-15% margin for Kerry.


A truely representative poll would call businesses and poll all working people - the ones who are routinely leading productive lives, also being the ones who vote.





Exactly, I was going to point that out.

These polls reach the people who don't work... which are typically either stay-at-home soccer moms or people receiving government handouts. Most of these types of people will vote for Kerry.

It's the people who are at work during that time that will be giving Bush his landslide victory in November.

I personally know of 4 people who have never voted in their life that are going to vote for Bush this year and I believe this situation is fairly common across the country.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:24:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
JESUS H CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!

Bush WILL take 45 states.

Why?

Because God wants it that way.

Polls don't mean SHIT!!!!!!!!!


Did you accept the terms of our bet?

(one NIW USGI 30 round AR15 mag goes to the winner)
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:26:05 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:
The dirty secret of polls -

Phone polls are reaching the "home at 2PM" crowd - overrepresenting the Jerry Springer demographic. They skew results toward the useless, unproductive brainless demographic, who all naturally lean toward the "whatcha gonna give me" Democratic candidates.

But that demographic also largely does not vote.

I would only be worried about one of these polls if it had a 12-15% margin for Kerry.


A truely representative poll would call businesses and poll all working people - the ones who are routinely leading productive lives, also being the ones who vote.





Well done Garandman. That sums it up. Polling is used to sell ad space. You can only run so many pit bull stories on the news.

We call polling here (and I think we made up the term) "Statistical Crack" because the more you hear, the more you want. Even if most of it is meaningless.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:27:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:
The dirty secret of polls -

Phone polls are reaching the "home at 2PM" crowd - over representing the Jerry Springer demographic. They skew results toward the useless, unproductive brainless demographic, who all naturally lean toward the "whatcha gonna give me" Democratic candidates.

But that demographic also largely does not vote.

I would only be worried about one of these polls if it had a 12-15% margin for Kerry.


A truely representative poll would call businesses and poll all working people - the ones who are routinely leading productive lives, also being the ones who vote.





THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!!


I am tired of some of the peoples pessimistic thoughts around here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:28:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
JESUS H CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!

Bush WILL take 45 states.

Why?

Because God wants it that way.

Polls don't mean SHIT!!!!!!!!!


Did you accept the terms of our bet?

(one NIW USGI 30 round AR15 mag goes to the winner)




I replied on the other thread that I can NOT accept that bet because I live in Cali.


My counter offer was $10 towards the site. I would offer more but I already have a few bets out there on this issue.


SGatr15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:30:10 AM EST
Why would ANYONE give these "Soap Opera"polls even the same weight you would give the "National Tattler?"
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:32:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
I replied on the other thread that I can NOT accept that bet because I live in Cali.

My counter offer was $10 towards the site. I would offer more but I already have a few bets out there on this issue.


Funny, I couldn't find the posts in question, it's as if they disappeared.

Anyway, sure, you are on.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:33:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
JESUS H CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!

Bush WILL take 45 states.

Why?

Because God wants it that way.

Polls don't mean SHIT!!!!!!!!!


Did you accept the terms of our bet?

(one NIW USGI 30 round AR15 mag goes to the winner)




sgtar15 can't own hi caps. He loves in Kalifornistan,

But to the larger point, I'm beginning to agree with him. HUGE (or at least very convincing) Bush win is pending. Enuf so, that since I live in SC, I think I have the luxury of sending a "message" vote to Bush, by voting for a more conservative candidate.

The guys in Kali, Ohio, PA, Florida and other battle ground states DO NOT have that luxury and NEED to still vote for Bush.

(If you remember Gobblin, I predicted over a year ago the AWB was dead. Liberalism is dying in America, hence the ragged scramble by Kennedy / Kerry / et all going bonkers. Liberalism is being replaced by GWB moderates. Conservatives are still without a place at the table, tho at least now we can speak to someone actually at the table. Here's to incremental victory)

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:35:15 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
I replied on the other thread that I can NOT accept that bet because I live in Cali.

My counter offer was $10 towards the site. I would offer more but I already have a few bets out there on this issue.


Funny, I couldn't find the posts in question, it's as if they disappeared.

Anyway, sure, you are on.





It's there.


I will add you top my list.....if either one of us forgets lets please remember to do the right thing and send the site some money.

SGtar15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:36:22 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:



I am tired of some of the peoples pessimistic thoughts around here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



I just hope I'm not being overly optimistic.

For the record, I am NOT sure that "God wants it that way." (i.e. huge Bush win)

Mebbe, mebbe not.

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:37:11 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
I replied on the other thread that I can NOT accept that bet because I live in Cali.

My counter offer was $10 towards the site. I would offer more but I already have a few bets out there on this issue.


Funny, I couldn't find the posts in question, it's as if they disappeared.

Anyway, sure, you are on.


It's there.

I will add you top my list.....if either one of us forgets lets please remember to do the right thing and send the site some money.


Yep.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:41:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:


I just hope I'm not being overly optimistic.

For the record, I am NOT sure that "God wants it that way." (i.e. huge Bush win)

Mebbe, mebbe not.





I truly believe GWB to be an honest Christian man. As you know G-man I am a Catholic, so is John Kerry.


Now listen closely.


GWB is MORE of a Catholic then Kerry ever will be!


God DOES care about this.


SGtar15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:43:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:
But to the larger point, I'm beginning to agree with him. HUGE (or at least very convincing) Bush win is pending.


You guys are smoking Uncle Bob's Famous Tortilla Weed. I'm going to list the states that are 100% Kerry states. Notice there are more than five of them. IF ANY YOU CONTEST ANY OF THESE STATES, post why:

1. Massachusetts
2. Connecticut
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. DC
9. Illinois
10. Maryland
11. Delaware
12. Wisconsin

(This doesn't even include California, New Mexico, Washington, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, or Maine, among others)
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:44:31 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/20/2004 3:50:11 AM EST by garandman]

Originally Posted By sgtar15:

I truly believe GWB to be an honest Christian man. As you know G-man I am a Catholic, so is John Kerry.

Now listen closely.

GWB is MORE of a Catholic then Kerry ever will be!

God DOES care about this.

SGtar15



I'll say this - Bush is closer toward demonstrating obedience to Biblical commands than John Kerry is.

Obedience to God has its rewards.

So does disobedience. And Bush has his sins also.

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:47:10 AM EST
Are you suggesting that God makes the more spiritual person win? Oh my stars, that is hilarious.

Anybody remember our 42nd president?
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:48:03 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:

And Bush has his sins also.





That is verey true...we all have our sins.


The differance is that you, I and GWB KNOW when we have committed a sin.


Kerry does not!.

Wobblin, the stats you posted are irrelavant sinece the election have yet to be held.


SGtar15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:48:27 AM EST
Gobblin -

Meauring the size of the potential win in states in the wrong way to look at it.

Only thing that matters is electoral votes. All the states syou listed have very few electoral votes.


Kali voted in a Repub governor - good chance Ahhnuld brings Kali home for Bush.

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:49:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Are you suggesting that God makes the more spiritual person win? Oh my stars, that is hilarious.

Anybody remember our 42nd president?



God blesses obedience to him. THAT is undeniable.

However, God gives us the leader we deserve as a nation.

So what God wants re: the election is anyones guess.

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:50:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Are you suggesting that God makes the more spiritual person win? Oh my stars, that is hilarious.

Anybody remember our 42nd president?




No. I am saying that God has a plan that includes goodness for the world.

Either you believe God has power on this planet or you don't.


SGtar15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:51:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
Wobblin, the stats you posted are irrelavant sinece the election have yet to be held.


No more or less irrelevant than you claiming Bush will garner 45 states....
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:55:35 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
No. I am saying that God has a plan that includes goodness for the world.


So, are you suggesting that a Bush re-election is necessary to achieve this?

Either you believe God has power on this planet or you don't.

I believe God exists and that I haven't the foggiest idea what He knows about what the future of our country is.

If you claim to know what God knows, by all means, write a book, make your millions, and hire me as your butler.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 3:56:58 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
No. I am saying that God has a plan that includes goodness for the world.

Either you believe God has power on this planet or you don't.


SGtar15



The Bible specifies an end of the world judgment.

How does your suggestion that "God plans goodness for the world" mesh with that??

Is it possible, JUST possible, God wants a Kerry win to usher in the "end times" bringing the Biblically prophesied "judgment day" about???

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:00:18 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
No. I am saying that God has a plan that includes goodness for the world.

Either you believe God has power on this planet or you don't.


SGtar15



The Bible specifies an end of the world judgment.

How does your suggestion that "God plans goodness for the world" mesh with that??

Is it possible, JUST possible, God wants a Kerry win to usher in the "end times" bringing the Biblically prophesied "judgment day" about???





No. The end of the world will be our own doing...not Gods.


SGatr15
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:01:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:

No. The end of the world will be our own doing...not Gods.


SGatr15



Biblically, we have a role in it, but TRUST ME, according to Scripture the TEOTWAWKI is NOTHING if not supernatural.

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:04:31 AM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
No. The end of the world will be our own doing...not Gods.


Heheheh. God may want to talk to you about this. His plan is clearly spelled out in Revelation, are you suggesting that humanity has a trump card???
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:39:50 AM EST
I like the contrast here:

"I find voters are blinded by their hatred of Bush and ignore the true issues," wrote AOL member Tarraballa on a messageboard related to the poll. "That is scary to me. Kerry may be winning in the war of 'hating Bush,' but he is not the best man for president. Do you honestly want Kerry in office when 9-11 hits again? I wouldn't."

Another member, Rme22567, took Bush to task for the past four years.

"He is treasonous, traitorous, too cowardly to even go to his cushy stateside assignment during Vietnam, and is the single most evil and incompetent, hateful president ever. Impeachment alone is too easy a sentence, he needs life in prison and should be charged with 928 counts of murder on U.S. soldiers."
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:51:01 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:
The dirty secret of polls -



I had never heard this before, but a few weeks ago Rush explained that polls during the weekends tend to give a much higher percentage of rebublican voters.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:58:39 AM EST

"I find voters are blinded by their hatred of Bush and ignore the true issues," wrote AOL member Tarraballa on a messageboard related to the poll. "That is scary to me. Kerry may be winning in the war of 'hating Bush,' but he is not the best man for president. Do you honestly want Kerry in office when 9-11 hits again? I wouldn't."

Another member, Rme22567, took Bush to task for the past four years.

"He is treasonous, traitorous, too cowardly to even go to his cushy stateside assignment during Vietnam, and is the single most evil and incompetent, hateful president ever. Impeachment alone is too easy a sentence, he needs life in prison and should be charged with 928 counts of murder on U.S. soldiers."





Link Posted: 8/20/2004 4:58:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 5:45:00 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

Originally Posted By garandman:
But to the larger point, I'm beginning to agree with him. HUGE (or at least very convincing) Bush win is pending.


You guys are smoking Uncle Bob's Famous Tortilla Weed. I'm going to list the states that are 100% Kerry states. Notice there are more than five of them. IF ANY YOU CONTEST ANY OF THESE STATES, post why:

1. Massachusetts
2. Connecticut
3. Rhode Island
4. New York
5. New Jersey
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. DC
9. Illinois
10. Maryland
11. Delaware
12. Wisconsin

(This doesn't even include California, New Mexico, Washington, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, or Maine, among others)



I'm afraid Ohio is a Kerry state also GWB messed with the unions too much .. Ohio is union .
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 5:48:34 AM EST
Thinking about the current tie situation, the news media could see more spending revenues from both candidates. It's a media conspiracy.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 5:50:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
I'm afraid .... .




We know, grasshopper.



Link Posted: 8/20/2004 5:58:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By cyanide:
I'm afraid .... .




We know, grasshopper.









some here have seen my vehicle and know this is mine

go Bush --- I still think he is a jug head

Link Posted: 8/20/2004 6:14:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
You guys are smoking Uncle Bob's Famous Tortilla Weed. I'm going to list the states that are 100% Kerry states. Notice there are more than five of them. IF ANY YOU CONTEST ANY OF THESE STATES, post why:

7. Minnesota





In 2000 Bush carried all but 3 districts.

In 2002 we elected a Repulican Governor and Senetor.

In 2004 the Democrat Mayor of the largest liberal stronghold (Minneapolis) has endorsed Bush.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 6:21:23 AM EST

Originally Posted By cyanide:
[some here have seen my vehicle and know this is mine

go Bush --- I still think he is a jug head





So you just bought a vehicle from a Bush supporter, and ahven't had a chance to remove it yet

We're NOT fooled.

Pan a little to the left and we'll see big Kerry / Edwards yard sign in front of your house.



Link Posted: 8/20/2004 6:58:44 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:

You guys are smoking Uncle Bob's Famous Tortilla Weed. I'm going to list the states that are 100% Kerry states. Notice there are more than five of them. IF ANY YOU CONTEST ANY OF THESE STATES, post why:

6. Oregon

(This doesn't even include California, New Mexico, Washington, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, or Maine, among others)



online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0802print.html

August 2nd - shows Kerry with a 4% lead - in OREGON. Factor in the margin of error for the poll and it is almost a statistical tie. By the way, see the 8/19 poll on California from Survey USA? Tied there also...
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 8:37:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
IF ANY YOU CONTEST ANY OF THESE STATES, post why:

7. Minnesota





3 of the 4 statewide offices are held by Republicans. The House became Republican in the last few years. The Senate became more Republican, but stayed Democrat. The Democratic mayor of St. Paul came out in favor of President Bush within the last month.

Bush has been here at least 3 times in the last month. He wasn't here that many times in all of 2000 from what I remember.
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 8:39:25 AM EST
[Last Edit: 8/20/2004 8:40:40 AM EST by Leisure_Shoot]

Originally Posted By garandman:
The dirty secret of polls -

Phone polls are reaching the "home at 2PM" crowd - overrepresenting the Jerry Springer demographic. They skew results toward the useless, unproductive brainless demographic, who all naturally lean toward the "whatcha gonna give me" Democratic candidates.

But that demographic also largely does not vote.

I would only be worried about one of these polls if it had a 12-15% margin for Kerry.


A truely representative poll would call businesses and poll all working people - the ones who are routinely leading productive lives, also being the ones who vote.





Don't forget, the Dem's pick up homeless and unemployed to take them to the polls.
They scan unemployment lists (obituaries ), etc looking for potential Dem voters.
DON'T be complacent!
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 8:54:54 AM EST
Hiramranger, i have to differ with you on jersey. by my VERY small world view of jersey bumper stickers, there are VERY FEW 'W' and a majority of Kerry on the backs of cars. with the (red) star ledger daily slamming bush this state will vote Demo-rat even if the Lord was running.
In Princeton, home of Paul Krugman, also see a lot of Nader stickers too.
be well
maxwell
Link Posted: 8/20/2004 9:23:10 AM EST
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