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Posted: 5/11/2004 11:37:55 AM EST
[Last Edit: 5/11/2004 11:38:18 AM EST by Red_Beard]

Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq

Tue May 11,10:45 AM ET

Investor'S Business Daily

Despite the Iraq (news - web sites) prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.

The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.

In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.

In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.

But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%.

Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose - from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%.

"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."

Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry, the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.

Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.

Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied."

Among independents, 16% are "very satisfied" and 43% are "somewhat satisfied" with the available choice of candidates.

The poll has some good news for Kerry, however. Nearly three-fourths (71%) say they made up their minds about whom they'll vote for back in February or even earlier. One in five (18%) say they decided in April and March. While Bush dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more recent deciders (70% to 24%).

An IBD/TIPP index that gauges public opinion of U.S. standing in the world hit its all-time low of 44.5 this month, reflecting the "stain" the prison scandal may have made on the country's image. The index's previous low was 46.7 in March 2003, just before the Iraq military action.

Bush has indicated he is aware of the situation, admitting that the last two weeks have been tough on the Iraqi front, with the prison scandal following the bloodiest month there for U.S. troops.

Still, Bush's ratings are improving. Why? Mayur cites four reasons, while believing the net effect of all the positives vs. the negatives (especially the prison scandal) is still positive.

First, he said, the latest job data have convinced many that the economic recovery is for real. More admit that Bush's tax cuts have helped spur the recovery.

Second, Bush's campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing states seem to be bearing fruit. In late April, Kerry led the president 45% to 40%; now Bush leads by 15 points (51% to 36%) in the Midwest. "Each hand you shake is worth 100 votes," Mayur observed.

Third, most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader. "And as things get tougher in Iraq," Mayur said, "we expect more Americans to gravitate toward him."

Fourth, support for U.S. military action in Iraq remains stable at 57%. Also, 52% believe the action is helping make the world safer. Nearly half (47%) think the U.S. is winning the global war on terrorism while 36% believe it is losing.

Americans admit the prison scandal is not good for the country's image, Mayur said, but they are not blaming Bush directly. If they were, he said, the president's ratings would have dropped.

"Americans understand that a handful of people were responsible for the (prison) incidents and perhaps have accepted Bush's apology," Mayur said.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Link Posted: 5/11/2004 11:53:27 AM EST
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 11:56:02 AM EST
Not in spite of, but rather due to the difficulties.

I was actually listening to Air America today. Al Franklins solution was to have the USA appaulogize to the UN and then have an all Arab military provide security in Iraq.

Kerry believes the same thing.

America doesn't.

Bush will take 45 states.

Link Posted: 5/11/2004 12:01:47 PM EST
[Last Edit: 5/11/2004 12:02:18 PM EST by Red_Beard]

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Meaningless, the lead is statistically insignificant

If they say the margin of error is 3.2 and he leads by 4 points, then it's not "statistically insignificant".

It may be meaningless as far as predicting who is going to win in november, but it's still interesting to get a snapshot of public opinion and at least attempt to guage how the public is reacting to current news.

They mention two polls, one in april where he leads by 4 points, and one taken after the prison story broke where he leads by 5 points. It seems like people aren't buying into the "blame bush for the prison scandal" line.

Link Posted: 5/11/2004 12:09:35 PM EST
I should hope he would be widening the gap. Even Mondale (who lost to Regan by the larget margin in history) should be able to beat Kerry like he is a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 12:16:12 PM EST

Originally Posted By sgtar15:
I was actually listening to Air America today. Al Franklins solution was to have the USA appaulogize to the UN and then have an all Arab military provide security in Iraq.

That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. What Arab country wants to see a democracy be established and succeed in Iraq? Why would you replace the best military force in the world with one of the most pathetic? Why would you put a corrupt, ineffective, and pusilliamous organization like the UN in charge? If this is the best Democrats can offer, they better put their thinking caps on, because their proposal is a recipe for disaster.

One of the reasons Bush is still so appealling is because all the Democrats do is sit back and bitch, or offer non-solutions like "Ask the international community for help".
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 12:18:02 PM EST

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
Meaningless, the lead is statistically insignificant and any forecasting six months out before the conventions is nothing more than an attempt to generate "news" for the outlets to report on. No poll will be worth spit until after September 30.

And a big kudo to you too for bursting my bubble
Link Posted: 5/11/2004 12:18:33 PM EST
The news media has been trying to spin the world news to John Kerry's advantage, but the sword can cut both ways. They're trying to cast bad light on GWB, but I think it's going the other way.
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