Breaking to Bush. New News Week Poll DU melt down coming

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Breaking to Bush. New News Week Poll DU melt down coming

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:00:52 PM EDT

Ah, DU such a good source for info. At least they are good for something.

Oct. 30 - After months of the tightest presidential election contest in recent memory, a new NEWSWEEK poll suggests momentum may be moving toward President George W. Bush. As the bitter campaign enters its final days, against the eerie backdrop of a surprise appearance by Osama Bin Laden, Bush’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but larger than last week. If the election were held today, 50 percent of likely voters would cast ballots for Bush and 44 percent for the Democrat, Sen. John Kerry. (Ralph Nader would receive 1 percent.) That compares to a Bush lead last week among likely voters of 48 percent to Kerry's 46 percent.

Breaking To Bush

here is the du thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1231082

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:02:36 PM EDT

[#1]

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:05:21 PM EDT

[#2]

Newsweak says a 6 point lead is meaningless. Uh guys? The margin of error is 4%

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:20:32 PM EDT

[#3]

When the Republican is behind you just apply the margin of error once. When a democrap is behind you apply it to each side.

It is called creative statistics.

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:23:32 PM EDT

[#4]

DU?

edit - nevermind

Posted: 10/30/2004 1:31:02 PM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
Newsweak says a 6 point lead is meaningless. Uh guys? The margin of error is 4%

Which means you need a nine point spread to show a 100% lead because Bush's support could be 4 points less and Kerry's support could be 4 points more giving Kerry a 2 point advantage, while unlikely it is still a possibility.

Posted: 10/30/2004 2:15:11 PM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Newsweak says a 6 point lead is meaningless. Uh guys? The margin of error is 4%

Which means you need a nine point spread to show a 100% lead because Bush's support could be 4 points less and Kerry's support could be 4 points more giving Kerry a 2 point advantage, while unlikely it is still a possibility.

Yes, likely a 1-2% chance of that happening... you are talking the far extreme ends of the confidence variables.

Posted: 10/30/2004 2:16:15 PM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Newsweak says a 6 point lead is meaningless. Uh guys? The margin of error is 4%

Which means you need a nine point spread to show a 100% lead because Bush's support could be 4 points less and Kerry's support could be 4 points more giving Kerry a 2 point advantage, while unlikely it is still a possibility.

Yes, likely a 1-2% chance of that happening... you are talking the far extreme ends of the confidence variables.

Agree wholeheartedly.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Breaking to Bush. New News Week Poll DU melt down coming

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