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Posted: 12/1/2007 2:52:08 PM EDT
We were supposed to get 12 plus inches of snow today.


Only got about 5.


They are never Fucking right.


They have been hyping this storm for 2 days and they are now saying it was too warm or some shit for the big dumping of snow.

Too warm....WTF it is 15 Degrees here!


Link Posted: 12/1/2007 2:55:55 PM EDT
It's called global warming...And it's Bush's fault.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 2:58:54 PM EDT
Now you know why I'm naturally suspicious of people who claim to be able to predict global temperatures 50 years from now. They can't even reliably predict local weather one week out.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:00:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Subnet:
Now you know why I'm naturally suspicious of people who claim to be able to predict global temperatures 50 years from now. They can't even reliably predict local weather one week out.


Thats why most meterologists think human caused global warming and the predictions of doom and gloom are bullshit.

Our local guy thinks it is.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:02:39 PM EDT
ever wonder why they always open the weather forecast by telling you what the weather was like yesterday? duh, I already know what happened yesterday...anyway, that's the only weather they actually get right.

I wish I could do my job as poorly and still keep it.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:04:20 PM EDT
My local weatherman is the Arfcom famous "Shitstorm" weatherman. He's usually pretty close at weather predictions.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:09:06 PM EDT
I wouldn't last a week in my job if I was wrong as often as our local forecaster. I just love it when they forcast a 50% chance of something. Why don't they just admit that they don't have a fucking clue?
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:24:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/1/2007 3:25:08 PM EDT by junebug68]
No they aren't. And neither is anyone else. Period.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:27:16 PM EDT
Our local weather-guesser once said it was hard to get predictions right because, well, it's hard to predict weather in our area.

I should also add that he and another weather-guesser from the same station lost their jobs due to HEROIN ADDICTION.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:53:38 PM EDT
They were pretty accurate for Prescott, AZ, from late September through Thanksgiving. Warm, sunny.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 3:55:05 PM EDT
The guy in San Diego is probably usually right


Tomorrow is going to be warm and sunny!!!
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 4:11:19 PM EDT
What other occupation can you be given the latest up to date tools to do you're job, screw up as often as you get it right and still keep a job? Interesting science though.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 4:20:31 PM EDT
My dream job...forecaster in Hawaii.

"Sunny tomorrow with a high of 74 or so...same as yesterday. Aloha."
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 4:51:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By VACaver:
My dream job...forecaster in Hawaii.

"Sunny tomorrow with a high of 84 or so with a slight chance of a passing shower or two...same as yesterday. Aloha."



Fixed.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 4:53:15 PM EDT

I wish I could be wrong as many times as weather forecasters and still keep me job.

Link Posted: 12/1/2007 4:57:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 12/1/2007 5:01:16 PM EDT by NavajoGunOwner]
Predicting what is going to happen tonight, next week or next month or this coming is very difficult.


Haven't you heard...If you really need to know what is going to happen to the whole world in 10, 20 and 50 years from now that is a sure bet



Link Posted: 12/1/2007 10:35:55 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ffsparky26:

Originally Posted By Subnet:
Now you know why I'm naturally suspicious of people who claim to be able to predict global temperatures 50 years from now. They can't even reliably predict local weather one week out.


Thats why most meterologists think human caused global warming and the predictions of doom and gloom are bullshit.

Our local guy thinks it is.


Couldn't have put that any better....
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 10:37:58 PM EDT
Thew wonderful thing about getting paid to make long term predictions (10+ years), is how will anyone know if you screwed up?

You already got paid....
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 10:38:32 PM EDT
here in SoCal they almost always get it right!
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 10:42:32 PM EDT

Originally Posted By VACaver:
My dream job...forecaster in Hawaii.

"Sunny tomorrow with a high of 74 or so...same as yesterday. Aloha."


Mine is an Alaskan weatherman for the winter.

Today, fucking cold with a 100% chance of miserable. Tomarrow, the same. And the day after than, and after than.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 2:13:25 AM EDT
My Wii said it was going to snow today 5 days ago. Everyone laughed, no one believed it. Today it snowed. Wii is my weatherman now.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 2:21:44 AM EDT
No.

We were supposed to have a "chance" of showers, and it has rained non stop for almost 2 days.

After the last round of fires, they predicted "Santa Ana's" every few days for the following month.

Bet those arsonists are PISSED right now.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 2:52:20 AM EDT
It's funny how as the technology has improved (satelites, doppler radar, etc.) it didn't help when they started giving extended forecasts; now five days ahead. The annoying thing was when they started telling everyone how it "feels", as in "the highs will be in the low 30's, but with the wind chill, it will "feel" like 20 degrees. The facts, ma'am, just the facts; we will do our own "feeling".
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 2:55:39 AM EDT
In defense of meteorologists, predicting the weather is probably one of the most difficult things in the world to do. There are simply so many things involved (and their relationships with each other) that I am actually amazed that they do as well as they do. Getting in the ballpark isn't too difficult, which I have learned in my hobby of making amateur forcasts. But determining whether a system will produce 10" of snow or only 5" of snow for a given area is extremely difficult. Many times, you don't have all the information you need to make such an accurate prediction until the event is already underway or nearly over. By then it's too late. There is simply an ungoldy amount of interactions taking place that create our weather. If you overlook just one or don't have accurate information about 1 of the many millions of factors that go into producing weather, you can screw up the whole forecast. So as you can see, weather isn't an exact science. And it likely never will be until models become better, computers become better and we have the equipment in place to monitor conditions down to the extremely local level (like a 1 square mile grid level).

Link Posted: 12/2/2007 3:18:20 AM EDT
Anyone who is so annoyed with weather forecasts should try and do it themselves and see how well they do. There are so many variables involved in many areas it is staggering.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 3:35:22 AM EDT
My amputated leg is 100% accurate, only I give about a 24-36 hour notice on change of weather. I have proved our weather guys wrong on SEVERAL occasions.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 3:48:38 AM EDT

Originally Posted By pvc1984:
My local weatherman is the Arfcom famous "Shitstorm" weatherman. He's usually pretty close at weather predictions.


I live across the street from him. Pretty nice guy. Very hard to predict snowfall in western NY due to something called lake effect. Changed in wind direction of only a few degrees can really change your snowfall totals. For those of you who don't know what lake effect is, it's when a city like Fulton NY gets 10 feet of snow over three days while a town 5 miles south of there may not get any at all. All caused by cold air passing over warmer lake water. The lake should be pretty big to cause it. If the lake freezes over, then no more lake effect.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 4:27:28 AM EDT
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 7:00:03 AM EDT

Originally Posted By brdvictim:
www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/jgeist/omg/shitstorm-flyer.jpg






That is a good pic for this thread.



Link Posted: 12/2/2007 7:51:29 AM EDT
Charginghandle was right...

Having done it for 20 years in the Air Force and now working for the National Weather Service I can tell you, lots to consider.

The atmosphere is fluid and dynamic and in constant change. Anyone who spends anytime with trying to do this in real life knows all to well how subtle changes can reap big time screw ups with the forecast..

At school at Chanute AFB it seemed pretty easy. You could see a system coming for hundreds of miles. Once I got to Miont AFB it was another ball game. Systems would stall in the rockies, modles would prog more moisture than really made it. Terrain plays a big factor even in North Dakota. For us, winds from the east with a certain RH would bring fog.

Now forecasters spend so much of their time trying to make their national grids match up with neighboring offices, they aren't able to apply as much time to the meteorological side of things. Hell, when we went through school, we wernt allowed to look at computer models to make a forecast. We had to use current upper level charts and prog it foreward based on rules of ststem movement and we did a better job than the civilians.

Well let me jump off my soap box here.

Oh yea...don;t believe the Global Warming nay sayers. They don't know any more than your Great grandfather counting rings on wooly worms.
Link Posted: 12/2/2007 7:57:27 AM EDT
Also remember, they are only on as long as they get "eyeballs". Drop in the ratings and no matter if they are 100% accurate they'll get the boot.
With all the radar sites available on the web, and all the live cam sites you can pretty much do your own planning and have the same chances of predicting weather as just watching the boob tube.
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