Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login
Posted: 10/15/2004 4:02:27 PM EST
I think it's still overvalued, and now oil's at an all time high and it looks like the market's getting jittery. And here we are in October, the tradtional month for crashes, and Monday's are the traditional day for "Black Monday." If it weren't an election year, I'd put money on it.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:03:38 PM EST
Why, are you trying to create a massive sell off?
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:06:35 PM EST

Originally Posted By Stormtrooper:
Why, are you trying to create a massive sell off?

+1

And if you are really thinking all that, then you are a perfect example of why such unjustified 'crashes' happen in the first place.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:11:07 PM EST
no

But if you really think so, you should put money on it - in the stock market - selling short (or whatever it's called)
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:14:23 PM EST

Originally Posted By Stormtrooper:
Why, are you trying to create a massive sell off?



On a Friday night, after the market's closed? And here? Who around here has money in anything other than AR15 futures?
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:21:28 PM EST
Just received a market report from my broker. Stock prices already reflect the uncertainty of high oil prices and geopolicitcal instabilty. So no, I don not expect the market to crash on Monday.

The market is kind of like gas stations. When oil prices go up in the mid East, the local gas stations raise the price the next day even though the oil purchased at the increased price has never been refined and ready for distribution through the pump. Stocks adjust to the environment prior to issues happening. Though as others mentioned the market is also self fulfilling in that if veryone sells the price goes down and up when everyone buys.

After all do you think the stock traders have no clue what the oil market is doing - the investment firms have traders for both as well as analyst.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:28:16 PM EST

Originally Posted By JohnTheTexican:I'd put money on it.


Well, it's obvious you didn't You can make $$ by shorting stocks if you believe the way you do.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:33:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By JohnTheTexican:
I think it's still overvalued, and now oil's at an all time high and it looks like the market's getting jittery. And here we are in October, the tradtional month for crashes, and Monday's are the traditional day for "Black Monday." If it weren't an election year, I'd put money on it.



I've been through more scares, corrections, crises, recessions, and booms than I care to count. This does not hold my interest....nor do I think the bottom will fall out of the world on Monday.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:33:21 PM EST
Alright, cheap real estate here I come
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:38:48 PM EST

Originally Posted By JohnTheTexican:
Who around here has money in anything other than AR15 futures?



Lol...judging by the guy with 4 posts who just put up 2 NIB 6920s for 5k there seems to be some rampant AR15 speculation going on lol.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:39:53 PM EST

Originally Posted By metalrocks:
Just received a market report from my broker. Stock prices already reflect the uncertainty of high oil prices and geopolicitcal instabilty. So no, I don not expect the market to crash on Monday.

The market is kind of like gas stations. When oil prices go up in the mid East, the local gas stations raise the price the next day even though the oil purchased at the increased price has never been refined and ready for distribution through the pump. Stocks adjust to the environment prior to issues happening. Though as others mentioned the market is also self fulfilling in that if veryone sells the price goes down and up when everyone buys.

After all do you think the stock traders have no clue what the oil market is doing - the investment firms have traders for both as well as analyst.



If that's the case, I guess the market must never crash. Funny, it doesn't seem to me to be nearly that stable.

I think the market is not nearly as rational as your broker or econ. 101 prof would have you believe. It's all about confidence. When things are perceived as going well, prices tend to get run up to absurd levels (relative to P/E ratios). When that confidence gets shaken, prices can plummet. I've thought that large segments of the market were at pretty absurd levels since the mid-1990s. We've had a significant correction, but still not enough to bring prices in line with reality, IMO.

There are lots of things that just aren't right right now.

On the other hand, we've alreadt had a significant correction, and like I said, it's an election year, which funks things up a bit.

Probably nothing will happen. But if it does, you're all going to think I'm some sort of freakin' foinancial genius.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:47:05 PM EST
Someday, but not Monday.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:49:38 PM EST
I hope Kerry's performance in the polls crashes Monday.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:49:45 PM EST

Originally Posted By JohnTheTexican:

Originally Posted By metalrocks:
Just received a market report from my broker. Stock prices already reflect the uncertainty of high oil prices and geopolicitcal instabilty. So no, I don not expect the market to crash on Monday.

The market is kind of like gas stations. When oil prices go up in the mid East, the local gas stations raise the price the next day even though the oil purchased at the increased price has never been refined and ready for distribution through the pump. Stocks adjust to the environment prior to issues happening. Though as others mentioned the market is also self fulfilling in that if veryone sells the price goes down and up when everyone buys.

After all do you think the stock traders have no clue what the oil market is doing - the investment firms have traders for both as well as analyst.



If that's the case, I guess the market must never crash. Funny, it doesn't seem to me to be nearly that stable.

I think the market is not nearly as rational as your broker or econ. 101 prof would have you believe. It's all about confidence. When things are perceived as going well, prices tend to get run up to absurd levels (relative to P/E ratios). When that confidence gets shaken, prices can plummet. I've thought that large segments of the market were at pretty absurd levels since the mid-1990s. We've had a significant correction, but still not enough to bring prices in line with reality, IMO.

There are lots of things that just aren't right right now.

On the other hand, we've alreadt had a significant correction, and like I said, it's an election year, which funks things up a bit.

Probably nothing will happen. But if it does, you're all going to think I'm some sort of freakin' foinancial genius.



I don't think you are any type of financial wizard. Especially based on your childish responses about themarket never crashing.

I also didn't expect to have to type a freaking fiancial/economics text book to answer your questions - no will I. The simple answer as I stated before is no it will not crach on Monday.

On the other hand what difference does it make if it does crash? Well Mr. I want you to think I am a wizard, don;t you already have an investment strategy to handle a down turn? Appraentl since you are worried about a supposed crash you are not prepared. Seek a financial advisor for assiatnce in this area.

Your other questions - does the market crash yes absolutely - history has shown this. In the past there were events that caused the genesis of the crash. I do not feel the market analyst predicitins are too far off from reality.

Short of a nuke going off this weekend or some other major geopolitic insability like going to war with Iran or N. Korea over this weekend, I pretty much expect the market to business as usual.
Link Posted: 10/15/2004 4:58:26 PM EST
Watch the Fed repo pool, when it goes up, so do the markets, when it goes down, so do the markets.

There is a government agency with a $42Billion dollar budget and the full faith and credit of the US government playing futures to keep panics from happening.

The repo pool provides an indication of how much credit that treasury and the banks (the working group on financial markets, set up after the '87 crash) are utilizing on any given day.

You're right about the P/E ratios, and that things are not as peachy as they seem. But as long as the government has unlimited credit and authorization to buy S&P futures it's unlikely we'll get a crash three weeks before an election without a catalyzing event.

Be careful shorting the market, but don't go long either.

This entire decade will be a time for defensive investing, return OF capital, not on.

I'm not entirely sure the adjustment will ever come in stocks, the dollar is more likely IMO.
Top Top