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1/25/2018 7:38:29 AM
Posted: 7/13/2002 2:27:34 PM EST
I am taking a satistics class that the local community college this summer. We are using Elementary statistics, vol. 8 by Mario F. Triola. I had enjoyed this book greatly until this afternoon. P.521 question 10.
Weapons and murder rate. The accompanying table lists the number of registered automatic weapons (in thousands), along with the murder rate (in murders pre 100,000 of population), for randomly selected states. Automatic weapons are guns that fire repeatedly when the trigger is held back. Are firearm murders committed with automatic weapons. Does a significant linear correlation imly that increased number of automatic weapons result in more murders? Data provided by the FBI and the bureau of alcohol, tobacco, and firearms.
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When you do the math the correct answer is that there is a significant correlation between the number of murders and the number of NFA weapons. I have heard from several sources that there has been only one person killed with a registered machinegun. If this is true, then this problem is perhaps the worst abuse of statistics I have ever seen. Even if that fact is untrue, I find it very hard to believe that more murders are committed each year with NFA weapons than I can count on one hand. I am amazed that there are so many sections in this book teaching aginst the techinque that is used in his own question. It is disgusting. I have been unable to to find Mr. Triola's email address or phone number, as to talk with him about this problem. Any information would be apreciated, as I would like to get in contact with him. I have just fond his location. He must live in Wappingers falls, which is in Duchess county NY. I can find directions to the guys house, but I can't find an email address?????
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 2:57:04 PM EST
Assult/NFA weapons, registered or unregistered, are used in less than 1.5% of all crimes. I'll post the raw DOJ numbers if I can find them. The type of gun with the highest crime stat is the handgun. It makes sense, it's pretty damn hard to conceal even a small rifle in your clothing.
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 3:00:54 PM EST
Weren't the last two murders that were committed with legal, registered automatic weapons committed by COPS?
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 3:09:01 PM EST
Kind of doubt it has anything to do with actual statistics. More likely a sly way to further the anti-gun agenda in the minds of the young and impressionable. [;)] Stepped-init
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 6:34:11 PM EST
Do a little research ... with the same states try: Correlation by amount of rural land. Correlation to number of major cities. Correlation by mean income. Correlation by population. You will probably find that murder has an odd correlation with each of these measurands. Your text is just spouting more anti-gun BS. Remember there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Ryan
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 6:56:52 PM EST
Figures don't lie, but liars sure do figure.
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 7:06:58 PM EST
Originally Posted By killingmachine123: Weapons and murder rate. The accompanying table lists the number of registered automatic weapons (in thousands), along with the murder rate (in murders pre 100,000 of population), for randomly selected states. Automatic weapons are guns that fire repeatedly when the trigger is held back. Are firearm murders committed with automatic weapons. [red]Does a significant linear correlation imly that increased number of automatic weapons [u]result in[/u] more murders? [/red]
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Answer: NO. Logic 101 - Lesson 1: [b]Correlation does not imply causation.[/b]
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 7:15:35 PM EST
Here's a few, sorry if the text is messed up.
U.S. has a high gun murder rate, whereas a country like England with strict gun controls has almost no gun murders and a very low murder rate. Doesn't this show that gun control is effective in reducing murder rates? Not exactly. Prior to having any gun controls, England already had a homicide rate much lower than the United States (Guns, Murders, and the Constitution: A Realistic Assessment of Gun Control, Don B. Kates Jr.). Japan is another country typically cited (see Japanese Gun Control, by David B. Kopel). (Briefly discussing the difference in homicide rates between England and the U.S. is Clayton Cramer's, Variations in California Murder Rates: Does Gun Availability Cause High Murder Rates?) Anti-control proponents can play similar games. Switzerland with 7 million people has 600,000 automatic rifles in it's homes, and the Israelis have easy access to guns. Both countries have low homicide rates. Likewise this doesn't mean more guns less crime. The U.S. has a higher non-gun murder rate than many European country's total murder rates. On the other hand, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Mexico have non-gun murder rates in excess of our total murder rate. Incidentally in 13th century Europe, several studies have estimated homicide rates in major cities to be around 60 per 100,000. (Even back then, the equivalent of coroners, kept records.) There are many, many factors, some much more prominent than gun availability that influence homicide rates and crime in general. (See excerpt from 1997 FBI Uniform Crime Report.) Due to the many confounding factors that arise when attempting international comparisons, this approach would appear to hold little promise for determining the influence of gun levels on violence rates. International Homicide Rate Table (Death rates are per 100,000) Country Year Population Total Homicide Firearm Homicide Households With Guns South Africa 1995 41,465,000 75.30 26.60 48.70 n/a Colombia 1996 37,500,000 64.60 50.60 14.00 n/a Estonia 1994 1,499,257 28.21 8.07 20.14 n/a Brazil 1993 160,737,000 19.04 10.58 8.46 n/a Mexico 1994 90,011,259 17.58 9.88 7.70 n/a Philippines 1996 72,000,000 16.20 3.50 12.70 n/a Taiwan 1996 21,979,444 8.12 0.97 7.15 n/a United States 1997 257,783,004 6.80 4.61 2.21 48.0
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 7:16:16 PM EST
Part 2 N. Ireland 1994 1,641,711 6.09 5.24 0.85 8.4 Argentina 1994 34,179,000 4.51 2.11 2.40 n/a Hungary 1994 10,245,677 3.53 0.23 3.30 n/a Finland 1994 5,088,333 3.24 0.86 2.38 23.2 Portugal 1994 5,138,600 2.98 1.28 1.78 n/a Mauritius 1993 1,062,810 2.35 0 2.35 n/a Israel 1993 5,261,700 2.32 0.72 1.60 n/a Italy 1992 56,764,854 2.25 1.66 0.59 16.0 Scotland 1994 5,132,400 2.24 0.19 2.05 4.7 Canada 1992 28,120,065 2.16 0.76 1.40 29.1 Slovenia 1994 1,989,477 2.01 0.35 1.66 n/a Australia 1994 17,838,401 1.86 0.44 1.42 19.4 Singapore 1994 2,930,200 1.71 0.07 1.64 n/a South Korea 1994 44,453,179 1.62 0.04 1.58 n/a New Zealand 1993 3,458,850 1.47 0.17 1.30 22.3 Belgium 1990 9,967,387 1.41 0.60 0.81 16.6 England/Wales3 1992 51,429,000 1.41 0.11 1.30 4.7 Switzerland 1994 7,021,000 1.32 0.58 0.74 27.2 Sweden 1993 8,718,571 1.30 0.18 1.12 15.1 Denmark 1993 5,189,378 1.21 0.23 0.98 n/a Austria 1994 8,029,717 1.17 0.42 0.75 n/a Germany4 1994 81,338,093 1.17 0.22 0.95 8.9 Greece 1994 10,426,289 1.14 0.59 0.55 n/a France 1994 57,915,450 1.12 0.44 0.68 22.6 Netherlands 1994 15,382,830 1.11 0.36 0.75 1.9 Kuwait 1995 1,684,529 1.01 0.36 0.65 n/a Norway 1993 4,324,815 0.97 0.30 0.67 32.0 Spain 1993 39,086,079 0.95 0.21 0.74 13.1 Japan 1994 124,069,000 0.62 0.02 0.60 n/a Ireland 1991 3,525,719 0.62 0.03 0.59 n/a
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 8:31:56 PM EST
Link Posted: 7/13/2002 11:50:48 PM EST
I copied that article directly from a news website, I forget where. Here is another article confirming the 600,000 number. I think that the catch is after a certain age, Swiss men may not be required to keep and maintain a full auto. A coworker of mine has a sister that married a Swiss guy. He took a short vacation to attend the wedding. Besides the normal tourist stuff, his new brother in law showed him his little collection including a brand new full auto Sig-550. I was pretty jealous to say the least.
The country has a population of six million, but there are estimated to be at least two million publicly-owned firearms, including about 600,000 automatic rifles and 500,000 pistols. This is in a very large part due to Switzerland's unique system of national defence, developed over the centuries. Instead of a standing, full-time army, the country requires every man to undergo some form of military training for a few days or weeks a year throughout most of their lives. Between the ages of 21 and 32 men serve as frontline troops. They are given an M-57 assault rifle and 24 rounds of ammunition which they are required to keep at home. Once discharged, men serve in the Swiss equivalent of the US National Guard, but still have to train occasionally and are given bolt rifles. Women do not have to own firearms, but are encouraged to.
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Link Posted: 7/14/2002 12:20:22 AM EST
That book is sad, I sure hope my daughter isn't ecposed to crap like that (not likely), I'm just going to have to teach her right.
Link Posted: 7/14/2002 12:28:55 AM EST
Only 24 rounds are issued? Geez! The Swiss need an ammoman in their nation! LOL.
Link Posted: 7/14/2002 12:29:12 AM EST
Been living with up till graduation in 2000 and now in college. Get used to it, but always give the instructor plenty of shit about proper citation and validity of sources. Its especially fun when theyre teaching from a book they wrote. Its even more fun when you say, "what? like the gun in my car?"
Link Posted: 7/14/2002 1:03:14 AM EST
Of couse, they are conviently excluding actual homicide rate/per automatic weapon statistics. Typical of a college textbook. Me sugest in my inebroaued state that you take a criminal justice class, especially criminology. Actual stistical inforamtion is the crux of such a course.
Link Posted: 7/14/2002 1:21:09 AM EST
I am aware of only two cases of the use of Legally owned (NFA tax paid) Machine Guns being used in a crime (and whether one is a crime is debatable). 1. Cop uses his privatedly owned MAC to kill a drug dealer when he was purchasing some "recreational substances" for his own use--possibly the dealer was attempting to blackmail the cop. 2. Suicide by Machine Gun. I guess he wanted to do a good job of it. (Is this really a "crime"?) AFARR
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