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Posted: 9/10/2004 5:03:08 AM EST
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:05:19 AM EST
Screw it, I'll be long dead by then.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:06:43 AM EST
The market will do what it always does, when the price reaches a level that causes too much pain there will be a push to find an alternative or at least a crutch. The world won't come to an end but stuff may get more expensive for a bit.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:07:16 AM EST
At that point I convert my vehicle over to the next step, if I am still alive.
When it becomes rare we could find some type of synthetic propane or korn oil diesel.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:08:26 AM EST
I imagine society will change much in the way it did when whale oil became scarce. Another form of energy will be come economically viable as the dwindling supply of oil causes its price to rise. Don't you think the oil (now Energy) companies have thought ahead.

As a side note, about a decade ago a company here in MA developed a process to print solar cells on silicon ribbon, which had the promise of greatly reducing the cost of solar cells. Guess who bought them out? Mobil oil. They're getting ready for that rainy day.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:08:29 AM EST
If you think it will choke the life out of the US's economy, just think what it will do to the arab region.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:08:33 AM EST
Think long term....think about your grandchildren.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:09:16 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:09:34 AM EST
Let me be the first to say: Dupe

IBTL
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:09:57 AM EST
You haven't been keeping up with current events and the latest studies. Oil is a renewable resource...all you need is heat, pressure, and carbon. Do you really think that the one hundred quadrillion pounds of oil that we have gone through already are from dead dinosaurs?
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:09:58 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Think long term....think about your grandchildren.



Try Great, Great, Great, Great Grand children.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:16:02 AM EST
This is some more of that peak oil theory bullshit.

Pulling on the tinfoil.

Flash: The world is running out of oil.

I am now old enough that I have heard this chicken(shit) little stuff for the 2nd time. I got news for you, the world is not running out of oil, what is happening is you are not finding it in your backyard so to speak. All the easy places have been look at.

FWIW, in the 70's I heard that we are running out of clean water also. By the time 2000 rolled around we would be out of clean water. Anyone had a drink of dirty water today?

Every so often some environmental whacko comes out and spouts off this bullshit, and the sheeple actually gobble it up.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:17:19 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?

Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:19:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By lonewolf223:

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?




We'll have ALL the oil:

Offshore California
Gulf of Mexico
A.N.W.A.R.

Buy oil stocks- Don't worry; be happy!



Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:23:24 AM EST
We still have the massive WWII oil supply stocks sitting below the WTC building #7 site, the Pentagon and of course the secret Nazi base in Antarctica.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:23:36 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.




You said it Hokie....Supply and Demand. It is like gravity, it's not only there, it is the Law.

When supply dries up, cost will increase until alternatives are more economical.

When that happens, consumers will use the cheaper alternative.

There is no mystery. You can learn these Laws in college classes in Business and Economics. They always work. Just like gravity.

Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:25:21 AM EST
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
peakoil.com

The really sad thing is, we've been through this exact scenario some 30 years ago. Oil shortage of the 70's? Well, its gonna happen again, only thig time no other countries can bail us out. Our economy is dependant on cheap oil. When the price of oil goes up, our economy will go down. And it wont bounce back.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:26:15 AM EST
There are plenty of fuel sources, oil derivatives just happen to hold the best BTU per dollar.

The minute gas & diesel skyrocket and consumer goods go through the roof, all the anti nuke forces (and anti fossil fuel) people will be ducking stones, even those thrown by former allies...
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:27:21 AM EST
Right, and I agree with the above posts....

BUT...

There is going to be a period of time where that alternative energy source is going to be a hard fit into society.

And you guys referencing the 70's aren't thinking big enough. 30 years is a short period of time. Look at the 'demand' over the last 30 years. Then look at the supply.

I'm not saying we'll run out. But I'm not saying we won't either...because I don't know and unfortunately, you don't either
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:27:46 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:29:50 AM EST
Two main points here:

First off, we have far more oil available then we think. The estimated years of oil use remaining, based on current usage and known reserves, has been going up fairly steadily ever since oil was first discovered and put to use. In the 1920s, it was estimated that there was only enough oil to use it for 10 years or so. But that figure keeps going up, even now. The reasons for this are that we keep discovering new oil reserves, new technology allows us to get more and more oil from those known reserves, and we keep getting more efficient at using the oil that we have. Plus, there's supply and demand. If oil starts becoming scarce, then the price will go up. With the increased price, it will become profitable to tap oil fields that were not profitable before, and thus the supply will increase.

Second, while oil is not the evil boogeyman the environmentalists would like you to think, it isn't perfect or ideal either. All of the energy companies are aware of this, and they are working on better energy sources. They aren't the evil, oil-obsessed thugs they are portrayed as by the Left. If there's a new energy source to be found, they'd rather invest in it and get in on the ground floor then fight against it. We are working on better energy sources, and we will eventually succeed. To use a parallel, the stone age did not end for lack of stones. Likewise, the oil age will end, but not for lack of oil.

Just for reference, the promising future energy sources include Nuclear Fusion and new ways of tapping solar energy. There's also Zero-Point energy, though that's probably pretty far off. Also, Hydrogen Fuel Cells are not an energy source. They just store and use energy produced by other sources.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:30:37 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Right, and I agree with the above posts....

BUT...

There is going to be a period of time where that alternative energy source is going to be a hard fit into society.

And you guys referencing the 70's aren't thinking big enough. 30 years is a short period of time. Look at the 'demand' over the last 30 years. Then look at the supply.

I'm not saying we'll run out. But I'm not saying we won't either...because I don't know and unfortunately, you don't either



Alternative energy is a stop gap measure IMO. When people think AE, they think "Run my car on organic fuels"
Ok, look at the economy. Heating, AC, lighting, construction etc etc. We NEED oil, and we need it cheap. Thats a fact of life. You wont have a tractor you can plug into the outlet overnight and be good to go the next day. Additionally, most alternative energies for fuel are both more expensive AND cant meet the demand.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:32:50 AM EST

Originally Posted By brouhaha:

Originally Posted By TheRicker:
Contrary to popular opinion, oil IS a replenishable resource.

We won't run out.



Really? This oil explorationist/geophysicist would be interested in hearing about this.



His statement is based on the findings in the GUlf where the oil being pumped now is of a different age then the oil that was first found. This doesnt mean its infinite or replenishing, it just means their pulling oil from a new source then where they were before. Most likely a deeper oil feild that has seeped upwards.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:33:59 AM EST
We won't have to worry about the Middle East anymore -- unless we discover that sand has some fuel value.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:35:34 AM EST

Originally Posted By Wolf_Warrior:
We won't have to worry about the Middle East anymore -- unless we discover that sand has some fuel value.



It makes good glass.....
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:38:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Think long term....think about your grandchildren.



I don't have kids, therefore no grandchildren. I have no dog in this hunt. Not my problem.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:39:54 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/10/2004 5:45:02 AM EST by fastang50]
This is really an interesting subject, with folks on two sides mostly. The eco freaks that say the sky will fall tomorrow and the bubbas who thing the supply will never end. In most cases the answer is in the middle. My thoughts for what they're worth (damn little!)
Oil will become scarce, maybe in our lifetime??
The booming growth of multiple economies (China) results in crazy high consumption.
Crazy high consumption is hard on the environment
Alternative forms of power are being found, but too slowly
Americans like big gas hogs for daily drivers, that causes unnecessarily high fuel consumption
Now don't get me wrong, I love big HP V-8's. I have two of them but 95% of my miles are in a 4 cylinder car. My work truck and muscle car combined see only a few thousand miles a year, max.
I don't have a solution for the problem but sure like the idea of hybrid or electric cars for daily driving. That is provided they're being recharged overnight by nuclear power. It wouldn't make much sense to charge with coal just to avoid burning gas would it?


eta: cool, post 444. Like Marlin 444!
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:40:38 AM EST

Originally Posted By brouhaha:

Originally Posted By TheRicker:
Contrary to popular opinion, oil IS a replenishable resource.

We won't run out.



Really? This oil explorationist/geophysicist would be interested in hearing about this.



Don't go confusing the issue with your pesky facts.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:45:22 AM EST
[Last Edit: 9/10/2004 5:46:06 AM EST by eodtech2000]

Originally Posted By KA3B:
We still have the massive WWII oil supply stocks sitting below the WTC building #7 site, the Pentagon and of course the secret Nazi base in Antarctica.



Shhsh, do let out the secret. The Illuminati working thru Haliburton will track you down and make you disappear.

We really do need a new "Tinfoil" Icon added.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:47:26 AM EST
There are several alternative ways to "crack" various carbon-based resources into oil, and there are plenty of alternative energy methods we could employ. Even if the price of energy doubled as a result, we'd still barely be on par with the rest of the world as far as energy prices go.

Hell, for that matter there's a ton of identified oil deposits that just aren't tapped because they can't compete with the global price of oil yet.

Or-here's a thought-we could stop buying gigantic trucks that get ridiculously low mileage just to keep up with the Joneses. Or better yet, find technology to make them get better mileage.


This would suck, yes, but since it wouldn't happen all at the same time we'd adjust. In the long run we may come out ahead since it would render the Middle East completely irrelevant.

Link Posted: 9/10/2004 5:51:03 AM EST
Well DUH!!
I'll bet you thought that Jurassic Park was just a film.
It's actualy the first step in replenishing the oil in the earth.

We are going to clone millions and millions of dinosaurs, then we are going to put them back into the depleted oil fields and in a couple years, presto, oil!



Originally Posted By brouhaha:

Originally Posted By TheRicker:
Contrary to popular opinion, oil IS a replenishable resource.

We won't run out.



Really? This oil explorationist/geophysicist would be interested in hearing about this.

Link Posted: 9/10/2004 6:04:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?



Flawed premise to base any logic off of.... 1/4 of the world's supply. We are only using about 1/200th of the known world supply of petroleum. It is just, because of economics, we go after the low-cost resource first (wells & pumps). As the price moves up, it becomes economically feasible to go after more costly petroleum resources.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 6:14:37 AM EST
We have between 100-150 years of oil left at current cosumption. If we double consumption, then we have 50-75 years left. As we start to run out of oil, we will discover new power sources.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 6:16:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By Q3131A:
We have between 100-150 years of oil left at current cosumption. If we double consumption, then we have 50-75 years left. As we start to run out of oil, we will discover new power sources.



Proof? I've never seen ANYONE in the industry say more the 50 to 60 years at current consumption with current known reserves. And those are considered the optimists. The "average" industry expert say 30 or so, the pessimists say 10-15 and the doomspreaders say 0-5.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 6:17:02 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?

ive brought this up before bro....and got bashed for it. take cover!! youre gonna hear how even if the oil industry crumbled...it wouldnt effect our economy.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:04:01 AM EST
Remember - alternative exist TODAY. Gasoline can be produced sythetically also - it isn't even very hard. BUT, it's not econonomically competitive with oil drilling. So we drill. As oil becomes more expensive, alternatives will begin to take over.

Don't worry about it, the world won't end.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:08:47 AM EST

Originally Posted By SpentCasing:
If you think it will choke the life out of the US's economy, just think what it will do to the arab region.



Wow, driving an SUV is patriotic, afterall!


Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:21:13 AM EST
I'm pretty sure that in the future we're all going to be flying around in solar powered helicopters just like in the "Jetsons"
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:33:23 AM EST
So.. What did we do before we became hooked on oil?

We will come up with a way to deal with it. Perhaps something in the United States will change and we will no longer need a large oil supply. Something like.. Finding a new means of transportation that does not heavily rely on oil, or making transportation less necessary (telecommuting).
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:34:27 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:39:18 AM EST
WALK???????
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:40:55 AM EST
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:42:43 AM EST
"Improvise/Adapt/Overcome".
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:45:34 AM EST
When the world's oil consumption depletes the world's oil supply we will find some more oil. This has happened several times during my lifetime.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:49:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By GoGop:
"Improvise/Adapt/Overcome".

this is the correct answer...but most fail to realize....this transition would not happen overnight.....we would not be prepared for such a change if it were to come abruptly.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:56:16 AM EST
brouhaha is sitting on billions of barrels of oil he has discovered but refused to reveal. He's holding out for bigger airplane than tatjana has.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:57:18 AM EST
We Walk.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 7:58:10 AM EST

Originally Posted By ASUsax:
Remember - alternative exist TODAY. Gasoline can be produced sythetically also - it isn't even very hard. BUT, it's not econonomically competitive with oil drilling. So we drill. As oil becomes more expensive, alternatives will begin to take over.

Don't worry about it, the world won't end.



Think about it for a minute and you'll see why argo-fuels arent a good option. Unless you like paying twice as much for all your food.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 8:00:10 AM EST
In 500 years when the oil "runs out" (this is ASSuming *we* never drill for our own oil) then the same thing will happen as did in the 70's during the oil embargo.

Manufacturers scrambles to create smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. People worked on alternative fuel sorces. Fuel efficiency won out at the time because oil kept coming in. I suspect the oil supply will drop off gradually, it won't just "run out" one year. The free market will find a way. You guys are too used to thinking as employees and consumers. There are smart people out there who make money thinking of solutions to this stuff.
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 8:00:41 AM EST

Originally Posted By Hokie:
Conspiracy Theory

When the world's oil supply diminishes, the demand for petroleum products will choke the life from the United States economy, as it clearly drinks over 1/4 of the world's supply.

Given the logrithmic rise in demand.....surely the supply can't and won't keep up, not indefinately anyway.

Someday....the American way of life is going to be turning upside down....the economy will be turned inward, the country will divide, and shit will hit the fan.

Yes? No? Maybe so? What say ye Arfcom?



No.

There is no evil conspiracy holding back 'alternative energy'...

It's just not practical with the oil situation as it is...

As oil becomes more scarce, alternatives will become more economically viable...

Further, technological advances will probably solve some of the impracticalities between then and now...

And we don't have the slightest clue how much oil is available... It's all just a guess....
Link Posted: 9/10/2004 8:07:04 AM EST

Originally Posted By SNorman:
In 500 years when the oil "runs out" (this is ASSuming *we* never drill for our own oil) then the same thing will happen as did in the 70's during the oil embargo.

Manufacturers scrambles to create smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. People worked on alternative fuel sorces. Fuel efficiency won out at the time because oil kept coming in. I suspect the oil supply will drop off gradually, it won't just "run out" one year. The free market will find a way. You guys are too used to thinking as employees and consumers. There are smart people out there who make money thinking of solutions to this stuff.



Dude, the experts are saying more like 50 years at the current rate of use. I don't see it lasting that long with all the SUV's with V8's that get 12mpg running around out there. I just can't see how people can afford to drive something so inefficent with gas at $1.75 a gallon for regular.
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