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Posted: 11/1/2004 1:31:14 AM EDT
WTF???

Swing states lean to Kerry
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Sen. John Kerry has erased President Bush's modest lead and the two candidates head into Election Day tied at 49%-49%, a nationwide USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows as an extraordinarily bitter and expensive campaign prepared to end.
Across the dozen battleground states expected to determine the winner, Kerry holds a 5-percentage-point edge — including small leads among likely voters in the critical states of Ohio and Florida. He trails by a similar margin in the third big battleground, Pennsylvania. (Related link: States pushed to front of race)

But USA TODAY polls nationwide and in six competitive states show a contest that either candidate could win. The battle between mammoth get-out-the-vote operations and the prospect of a flood of new voters are key to whether Bush wins four more years or joins his father as a one-term president.

The findings suggest that Osama bin Laden's warning to Americans in a video broadcast Friday failed to provide the boost for Bush that some analysts predicted. That development and the disclosure last week that 377 tons of high explosives were missing from an Iraqi site U.S. troops failed to secure seemed to have damaged his standing.

A week earlier, Bush had led Kerry on who would better handle the situation in Iraq by 11 percentage points; that edge shrank to 4 points. The 22-point advantage Bush had held in handling terrorism was cut in half.

Last week, Bush led Kerry 51%-46%.

The new survey of 1,573 likely voters, taken Friday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

"It seems like a scary Halloween for George Bush," Kerry pollster Mark Mellman says. "People in this country clearly want a fresh start."

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said that the race is close but that Bush is in a good position. He disputes Gallup's assumptions about the 3% of likely voters who said they were undecided.

Gallup's formula assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent.

Without allocating those voters, Bush led Kerry 49%-47% among likely voters. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry led Bush 48%-46%.

The candidates crisscrossed the same territory on Sunday. Bush stumped in Florida — with rallies in Miami, Tampa and Gainesville — before flying to Cincinnati. Kerry campaigned in Dayton and New Hampshire before heading to Tampa. Bush asked for support from wavering Democrats and vowed to prosecute the war on terror. Kerry promised a "flurry of activity" and "real steps" if elected to protect the nation's security.

In the surveys:

• A 52% majority said they were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the USA. Bush's job-approval rating slipped to 48%, below the 50% benchmark critical for incumbents.

• Terrorism was the most important issue cited by voters in the national poll and in Florida and Pennsylvania. But in four Midwestern states — Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin — the economy was ranked first.

• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%.

And Ralph Nader?

The independent candidate who helped swing the 2000 election to Bush isn't much of a factor this time. Among 1,573 likely voters, he was backed by 9.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:45:37 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:47:18 AM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:49:55 AM EDT
I'd hit it ..................


But despite how she looks, she is on the mark ---- or am I wrong ???
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:38:50 AM EDT
It really doesn't matter, as only a fraction of the people are going to vote early.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:47:30 AM EDT

Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Oh and she is a beauty too.






She has TUNA breath.
I can smell it from here.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:51:03 AM EDT

Originally Posted By sydney7629:
• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%.



Uh, if this is the results of early voting, there isn't a ballot for undecided. Where'e the other 6%?
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:54:04 AM EDT
The media has, and will continue to go all out to get Kerry elected. This includes papers, magazines, etc. CNN has been shockingly obvious recently.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:02:52 AM EDT
Expect pro-Kerry stories from media outlets, designed to demoralize Bush supporters.

Ignore them and vote.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:06:22 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 3:09:25 AM EDT by bumpusjm]
I'm of the opinion that polls will always favor the Democrats.

Since a disproportinate number of unemployed persons are of the Liberal persuasion, they're the ones who are going to be sitting at home, answering the phone, and starved for attention. The polsters get to talk to them.

The elderly, though I hate to admit it, commonly lean Democratic - often due to the scare tactics of the Libs (Bush will increase your drug costs, and take away Social Security!!!). They're also often at home and nearly always answer the phone. The polsters get to talk to them.

On the other hand, I belive that the majority of the people who are productive members of society tend to lean towards a more conservative viewpoint. They're generally not at home for the polsters to talk to.

At least, I'm sincerely hoping that is the case.

Oh - and I work 3rd shift. I've only answered the phone a few times in the past week. No polsters, all were democratic workers trying to drum up support for their candidates. They're usually shocked when I ask them to repeat the name of their candidate, and that since they woke me up, they don't get my vote...
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:31:32 AM EDT
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:34:23 AM EDT

Originally Posted By redmenace:
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.


A lot of them are going to be thrown out any way because of faulty contact info and wrong address. Most likely homeless and illegals voting
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:40:37 AM EDT

Originally Posted By RikWriter:
It really doesn't matter, as only a fraction of the people are going to vote early.



Yup.

And its no surprise the "make special rules for ME" vote early crowd goes pro-Kerry.

Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:55:02 AM EDT
Well think about this Dems don't work so they have more time to get to the polls. Tues all the Rep will be making time durring their busy day to vote.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:57:45 AM EDT
i was in gainseville this past weekend and i know its a college town and all but DAMN i have never seen so many kerry signs/stickers. it was like a plague. i felt like i was in boston, but more humid with hot chicks everywhere.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:59:24 AM EDT

Originally Posted By bigsapper:

Originally Posted By sydney7629:
• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%.



Uh, if this is the results of early voting, there isn't a ballot for undecided. Where'e the other 6%?



Right. And, the only votes that count are the ones in the machine cartridges, not some poll using questionable methodology. I voted a week ago, and I voted for Bush.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:04:05 AM EDT

Originally Posted By DvlDog:
i was in gainseville this past weekend and i know its a college town and all but DAMN i have never seen so many kerry signs/stickers. it was like a plague. i felt like i was in boston, but more humid with hot chicks everywhere.



You see the Kerry signs because you are sensitized to them.

I did a drive around my neighborhood and saw quite a few (and a number of Bush signs too) What was telling were the houses with no signs, and of the people I know well, ALL houses without signs were going Bush.

So don't let the signs get to you, vote vote vote!

(and help out at your local GOP HQ)

GO BUSH!!
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:12:51 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 4:13:38 AM EDT by cyanide]

Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:

Originally Posted By redmenace:
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.


A lot of them are going to be thrown out any way because of faulty contact info and wrong address. Most likely homeless and illegals voting



So now you have to have a home to vote ???
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:34:06 AM EDT

Of course what the article did not state is the number of forgeries that have been found on absentee ballots. There are many, many, many, many cases of the signature on file not matching the one sent in.



Bigfeet
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:35:35 AM EDT

Originally Posted By cyanide:

Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:

Originally Posted By redmenace:
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.


A lot of them are going to be thrown out any way because of faulty contact info and wrong address. Most likely homeless and illegals voting



So now you have to have a home to vote ???



You do have to have a home IN THE STATE where you are voting.

Back in the days when sense prevailed, ONLY landowners got to vote. After all, its the landowners who pay for the vast majority of the cost of gov't.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:55:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 6:57:24 AM EDT by AimSmall]
Funny, after the OBL sighting all but two houses in my neighborhood took they Hanoi Kerry signs down. I stood outside and asked several where their signs went. The consensous was "we took them down" Imagine that.

Of note the two left are the lesbian liberal house and a union yokel. Some people aint savable.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:00:03 AM EDT

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By cyanide:

Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:

Originally Posted By redmenace:
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.


A lot of them are going to be thrown out any way because of faulty contact info and wrong address. Most likely homeless and illegals voting



So now you have to have a home to vote ???



You do have to have a home IN THE STATE where you are voting.

Back in the days when sense prevailed, ONLY landowners got to vote. After all, its the landowners who pay for the vast majority of the cost of gov't.



Here in Cleveland they have a school levy on the ballot. The school board is out canvasing the government housing projects letting everyone there know that a property tax increase will not cost the welfare recipients any money... isn't that great. The non-property owners getting to vote a property tax increase on the rest of us...
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:06:14 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Merrell:
Expect pro-Kerry stories from media outlets, designed to demoralize Bush supporters.

Ignore them and vote.



That could backfire driving more Repubs to the polls and less dems who think that they already have won the election.

At least I hope it works that way.

Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:10:13 AM EDT
The only thing I can say with certainty about Florida: it's going to be a close one.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:20:28 AM EDT
I expected it.

It's all brain-washed seniors and losers who would never bother to fit voting into a busy 12 hour window on Nov 2nd. They got carted off their asses to the early vote locations.

The other 80% of voters vote tommorrow.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 8:07:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 8:08:34 AM EDT by goodmedicine]
Are those actual counted votes or exit polls?
I can't see how they could release this info already.
Did I miss something?

GM


eta (sp)
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 11:54:01 AM EDT

Originally Posted By goodmedicine:
Are those actual counted votes or exit polls?
I can't see how they could release this info already.
Did I miss something?

GM


eta (sp)



I believe they are already counted. I could be wrong. Remember we have had a week of early voting.


Bigfeet
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:01:29 PM EDT
I think Kerry will take Florida. Wpalm Beach, Broward and Dade. I dont like saying this but I have a real bad feeling from observing those around me. I would not be surprised if it shot to over 60% in favor of Kerry. I know some will curse and flame at me for saying that. I do no say it because I want tit to be true, I say it becauser thats how it looks in this area. Lots of stupid people in SE florida.

I am digging my bunker now.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:10:24 PM EDT

Originally Posted By WildBoar:
I think Kerry will take Florida. Wpalm Beach, Broward and Dade. I dont like saying this but I have a real bad feeling from observing those around me. I would not be surprised if it shot to over 60% in favor of Kerry. I know some will curse and flame at me for saying that. I do no say it because I want tit to be true, I say it becauser thats how it looks in this area. Lots of stupid people in SE florida.

I am digging my bunker now.




Uhhhhhh.



No.



<2004 again, huh?>
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:14:21 PM EDT
Yep there are a bunch of libs down here in SoFla......I am seeing lots of minorities and elderly with Kerry crap. My whole family, my wifes whole family, are all voting for Bush.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:30:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By illigb:

Originally Posted By garandman:

Originally Posted By cyanide:

Originally Posted By VTHOKIESHOOTER:

Originally Posted By redmenace:
Polling with using absentee ballots is a pretty poor sample, especially in Florida. Absentee balltos (especially the earlier ones) are going to be overrepresentative of the elderly who vote for anyone who will give them a handout.


A lot of them are going to be thrown out any way because of faulty contact info and wrong address. Most likely homeless and illegals voting



So now you have to have a home to vote ???



You do have to have a home IN THE STATE where you are voting.

Back in the days when sense prevailed, ONLY landowners got to vote. After all, its the landowners who pay for the vast majority of the cost of gov't.



Here in Cleveland they have a school levy on the ballot. The school board is out canvasing the government housing projects letting everyone there know that a property tax increase will not cost the welfare recipients any money... isn't that great. The non-property owners getting to vote a property tax increase on the rest of us...



Who was it that said that Democracies are doomed to fail when the people realize that they can vote themselves money from the treasury?
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:32:41 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 12:35:54 PM EDT
I heard on the radio it was 50 %-46% in favor of bush
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:15:01 PM EDT
Guys, don't sweat these polls showing early voting breaking for Kerry. The sample size in the Iowa poll was 90 people. The sample size in the Florida poll was 150.

You can get a very rough idea of where things stand with such small sample sizes; but the margin of error is huge.

Check out this site for particulars:
jaycost.blogspot.com/
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 2:41:37 PM EDT
It's all the Bush-haters so eager to vote against him they voted absentee early, even though they'll be in town on the 2nd.

I dont understand this mania for early voting. What's the problem with voting on the first Tuesday like we always do? I have never had a problem getting to the polls. I alwaysw vote in primaries and November elections (usually tune out April municipal elections though).
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