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Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:19:57 PM EST
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Originally Posted By jvm:



This is faise we have some in New Mexico and Arizona

Most of our smelters are shutdown
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Originally Posted By jvm:
Originally Posted By heavymetal762:
Originally Posted By Danted:
So are the mfgs unable to get components because they are made in China?  How does one make a primer?


We closed our last copper mine a while back. It was all coming from China. Most bulk metals are, these days.



This is faise we have some in New Mexico and Arizona

Most of our smelters are shutdown

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_mining_in_the_United_States#Smelters
Sounds like there are three left, but the majority of copper ore is sent overseas to be smelted. It seems kind of crazy when it's more profitable to send ore somewhere else in the world and then ship the metal back, and still remain profitable.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:21:36 PM EST
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Originally Posted By xring67:

I started reloading in 1990. I bought all my supplies from a local outdoor store that had a really good selection of components at good prices, but I had no point of comparison at the time and didn't know to appreciate it. Primers were less than $10/K (I think they were $9). Sierra 308 168gr HPBT match bullets were about $10 a box, which at about 20% more than their 165gr SP hunting bullet, I thought was pretty expensive. I don't know if there was ever a component shortage before then, but I don't recall ever hearing of one. Of course that was before Al Gore invented the internet, so maybe I didn't hear about it.

The first shortage I experienced was in 1994 when primers became all but impossible to source and were 2x or more the pre panic price. It was about 2 years before they were in stock everywhere again, and with it came about a 50% price markup that never retreated. The local store decided to get out of the reloading business at about the same time, so I learned about online ordering and hazmat fees. Regardless, I absorbed that lesson and never bought less than 25K primers at a time.  When inventory gets down to what I think won't last more than 5 years, or I run across a really good deal, I stock up again.

I can promise there are plenty of people on this board who would gladly take those primers for $58/K. When I see the online auction prices for primers I think about renting vault space to store mine.
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I think we're about at the end of the road for being able to easily get or reload ammo.    I can't see what would stop the Dems from an all-out assault on every aspect of gun ownership.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:29:07 PM EST
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Originally Posted By StevenH:
Check the PX and base exchange if you have access.
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Ours has had the same boxes of .32 S&W, .327 mag,.357 Sig, and other odd calibers on the shelf next to a box of minishells for months with no new shipments.

The LGS's on the other hand have plenty at current market prices (e.g. $0.80-$1/round of M855) if you're willing to pay for it. The places with none are the ones that haven't raised prices like Academy.

I don't blame the LGS's, the gun industry is feast or famine
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:30:53 PM EST
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Yes you are and that's what I'm hoping to have stockpiled by summer.

Well played Sir.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:34:46 PM EST
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Originally Posted By akodo:

The problem with that mantra is people only recognize cheap when it has passed.  When you've seen a constant decrease in price over a year, there's no reason to think it won't be even cheaper next month.

Mantra needs to change.
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Originally Posted By akodo:
Originally Posted By C-4:

The Arfcom mantra has been repeated incessantly since I first started here:  

"Buy cheap, stack deep."

The problem with that mantra is people only recognize cheap when it has passed.  When you've seen a constant decrease in price over a year, there's no reason to think it won't be even cheaper next month.

Mantra needs to change.


@akodo

I hear you.  A lot of deals are actually posted in GD, though I know I spend way more time here than most.  If you see good, knowledgeable posters saying, “Hell ya!”, you can infer that it’s a good deal.  

We had the Federal HST 9mm and .45 thread going forever in GD, so when a poster who has been here a while is looking for HST, I’m like “Where have you been!”
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:36:52 PM EST
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Originally Posted By sq40:


A lot of countries have a 100rd limit for civilian ownership. I figure the left will try to do the same here.
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Originally Posted By sq40:
Originally Posted By C-4:

The Arfcom mantra has been repeated incessantly since I first started here:  

“Buy cheap, stack deep.”


A lot of countries have a 100rd limit for civilian ownership. I figure the left will try to do the same here.


@sq40

I don’t doubt it.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:39:24 PM EST
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Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:


And for at least the foreseeable future, that mantra has been replaced with "buy extremely high and in quantities so low it isn't even deserving of being described as a stack".

For the people who didn't lay back some ammo before the current crisis (because they were complacent or maybe just broke), they probably aren't going to be doing much shooting in the next year. Any ammo being found/bought will be in smaller quantities for all but the wealthy. And it will be reserved for serious purposes, not for plinking or general blasting.
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This, I'm not shooting my stash.  I bought enough to sight in my rifles and possibly kill a tasty critter or two but its ridiculous now.  

Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:41:03 PM EST
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Originally Posted By lokifox:
Anyone know where I can get some cheap 9mm?

I don't really want to pay more than .20/rd.
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Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:43:11 PM EST
I was getting ready to consider selling off a major chunk of my stash both because we are moving and because the prices were favorable. While it wasn't a quantity that would move a market, I had some healthy quantities I was planning to list. Based on all the current chatter, however, I'm now holding tight. I have a feeling there are a lot more in similar circumstances. Hell, I bought some pistol mags and few cases of those dsa primers just to have them.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:46:58 PM EST
During other panics you usually saw some uncommon calibers in stock online but right now that's not the case.  I did a quick over view of one online site.

out of stock
303 British
6.5 and 7.7 Jap
7.92x33 Kurz (talk about uncommon and yes this has been in stock in the past
7x57R
35 Remington

Good news one of the items in stock is 450NE at $7- $10 per round

Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:50:14 PM EST
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Originally Posted By lumper:



Up to $425.00, and they didn't even bother to take the $37.99 sticker off of it.
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Originally Posted By lumper:
Originally Posted By axl:



Nope. Even on auction houses they are selling for stupid prices.

Winchester Primers



Up to $425.00, and they didn't even bother to take the $37.99 sticker off of it.


They want to make sure the buyer knows they are being raped.  That’s part of the thrill for them.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:58:11 PM EST
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 6:59:18 PM EST
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Originally Posted By lokifox:
Anyone know where I can get some cheap 9mm?

I don't really want to pay more than .20/rd.
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I have some thrice fired 9mm brass for .02/rd
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:02:28 PM EST
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Originally Posted By scuba_steve:


No, it won't. They'll be on the trains headed to the camps still talking about how you don't need nothun but a box of thirdy-thirdy.
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Originally Posted By scuba_steve:
Originally Posted By cyclone:
Originally Posted By IdahoDoug:
If the Dems have their way, I predict they will put most of the ammo makers out of business and restrict most of it for police and gov. thugs.

That might wake the fudds up


No, it won't. They'll be on the trains headed to the camps still talking about how you don't need nothun but a box of thirdy-thirdy.

I think the fudds are awakening (and I do hate that fudd term btw).  I'm haring lots of bitching about how they can't find no thuddy thuddy, can't find no primers or bullets to load thuddy thuddy, can't find no dies for thuddy thuddy, and even though they can get powder it's thuddy bucks a pound.  Screw loading anyway if you have no thuddy thuddy brass because it's nowhere to be found either.

At my last range trip I spent two hours picking up brass from my outdoor bay after I was done shooting.  Got about 1500 5.56 (mostly LC 20!!), lots of 243, lots of 45 ACP, and surprisingly lots of .30-30.  People just have no idea the value of what they are leaving behind.  All the brass I picked up was right on top and freshly shot within the past few days.  Cleaned up to like new.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:09:54 PM EST
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Originally Posted By Jus228:
This has got to be hurting new gun sales.  What’s the point in buying something when you can’t get ammo for it?  I know i have zero interest in buying anything right now...
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Stores around me are down to a few shotguns and bolt guns.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:14:40 PM EST
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Originally Posted By bloviating_jerk:
It's like everything else these days.
Nobody understands the reasons behind the problem, so they just make some up,

Ammo manufactures were barely surviving a few years ago because of the increased over head they build up meeting demand during the last panic buying season.
If I ran an ammo company I wouldn't even consider expanding production capacity because this is all temporary, and I'd be struggling to make payroll in a year or two.
Producing and selling a product with no fixed value is extremely difficult and you have make enough money to survive increased costs.
There is some gouging, but what most people are bitching about are small dealers trying to raise enough money to replenish their stock when they have no idea what their cost will be from day to day.
On top of the price uncertainty, dealers and distributors know demand will drop of at some point, and they can't afford to be holding a bunch of ammo at inflated prices when that happens.
It's a lot of work keeping up with this nonsense and before it's over, it will bankrupt people.

Consumers who don't know the inner workings of the industry have no clue how dangerous times like this are for small businesses.
When this is over there will be a wave of small gun shops closing their doors.
Whats happening is similar to the real estate bubble in that lots of people will be upside down when prices normalize, and ammo values will plunge leaving people in debt with no way to recover losses.

I'm starting to get pretty concerned because left's primary tactic will be bankrupting gun companies through litigation.
If the industry is already in financial meltdown, it will be extremely vulnerable.  
The NSSF should should be involved at this point. And dealers/distributors should be transparent about their costs and inventories, and we need to keep buying to support the industry while we still have it.

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This post seems spot on.  

Small gun shops have repeatedly stated they ARE receiving ammo, but less of it and at a higher price.  Which means they have to charge a higher price, which means gun owners see the scarcity and increased prices so they go buy more (a la the Toilet Paper fiasco of 2020).  

I also think many of us forget that so many people just buy a box or 2 when they go to the range, so it's not like they have ever learned to buy cheap and stack deep.  If a box of 50 rounds is $10, $20 or even $30 you will pay it because you need that 1 box.  If you buy by the case, no way would you want to pay the increased price per round.  

I do wonder how this affects gun ranges long term.  If the members stay on board then I think they'll survive ok.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:15:49 PM EST
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Originally Posted By dbmers:


it is hitting retailers....ppl are buying it as soon as it hits the stores online and off. You can find it online if you want to pay .85 plus a round for 5.56 or 2.25 for 6.5 Creedmoor
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Originally Posted By dbmers:
Originally Posted By JellyBelly:
Originally Posted By bmw20:
Both sides are panic buying like never before, for good reason.

The problem is that there's nothing to panic buy anymore. I'm not disputing that it's being manufactured, but it seems to not be reaching the retailers. Where's it going?


it is hitting retailers....ppl are buying it as soon as it hits the stores online and off. You can find it online if you want to pay .85 plus a round for 5.56 or 2.25 for 6.5 Creedmoor

A lot of places that have brick-and-mortar stores also have an online department.  Generally as soon as product is received in the central distribution center it's available for sale after the nightly update)  It might then get sold directly to customers without ever traveling to the store.

I suspect that in a lot of companies that sell ammo there's at least one guy who has figured out the timing of the system. He knows the update goes in at 12:01 AM Eastern and it takes 2 hours and 20 minutes to actually 'register' online.  So he's buying.

Or maybe it's not an insider, maybe it's just guys with programs that check every 5 minutes and buy what they find.  

And the these guys are posting it for sale on gunbroker.


Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:17:53 PM EST
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Originally Posted By C-4:


@akodo

I hear you.  A lot of deals are actually posted in GD, though I know I spend way more time here than most.  If you see good, knowledgeable posters saying, “Hell ya!”, you can infer that it’s a good deal.  

We had the Federal HST 9mm and .45 thread going forever in GD, so when a poster who has been here a while is looking for HST, I’m like “Where have you been!”
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Originally Posted By C-4:
Originally Posted By akodo:
Originally Posted By C-4:

The Arfcom mantra has been repeated incessantly since I first started here:  

"Buy cheap, stack deep."

The problem with that mantra is people only recognize cheap when it has passed.  When you've seen a constant decrease in price over a year, there's no reason to think it won't be even cheaper next month.

Mantra needs to change.


@akodo

I hear you.  A lot of deals are actually posted in GD, though I know I spend way more time here than most.  If you see good, knowledgeable posters saying, “Hell ya!”, you can infer that it’s a good deal.  

We had the Federal HST 9mm and .45 thread going forever in GD, so when a poster who has been here a while is looking for HST, I’m like “Where have you been!”


I agree with you, but not the premise to which you replied.  

No doubt, it's almost impossible to time the bottom of a market.  It's not even worth trying, but if you are paying attention over time, you start to understand trends...and anyone who paid even half attention in the last 10 years would have seen that prices have been trending downward for years and that it was time to stock up for an eventual reversal of that trend...especially given that we were headed into a controversial presidential election year.

You didn't need to be a market analyst or have a crystal ball. People posted threads in GD daily reminding folks here that we were in salad days and it was time to stack deep. Not general guidance to stack deep when prices were low but specific guidance to stack deep RFN.  And as you noted, there was practically a blinking neon sign in GD for the better part of a year celebrating half-price sales on HST. You guys were practically begging people to buy it.

If you didn't have the cash then, then yeah, I get it. We all have priorities and target shooting is a discretionary expense...but I'm not buying that people here didn't know it was time to buy.  People who weren't here? Well hell, get in the game, dammit.  






Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:20:28 PM EST
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:26:05 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/13/2021 9:50:44 PM EST by cpermd]
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Originally Posted By mPisi:


I just tried this for the first time too.  Did select adult signature required since that is a requirement for the limited quantities of ammo shipping.  Marked with the diamond limited quantity signs.  Label was a little weird since it showed 7lbs when it was a flat rate package that allowed 50 or 60 lbs, and I had 36lbs in it.  But picked up okay off my porch and on the way.  Price was ~$37 versus $70+ if done as a 36lbs package.  Fingers crossed.
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It is very illegal to ship ammo and primers via USPS.

Oops
Just realized this was for UPS
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:33:58 PM EST
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:35:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/13/2021 7:42:47 PM EST by DoctorLove]
I saw the writing on the wall. I stocked up during salad days. It was called salad days for a reason. I bought a case of 9mm for $200 every month for like 2 years. I got a case of various 5.56 about every other month. When ammo is at crazy low prices, you buy it.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:38:00 PM EST
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Originally Posted By cpermd:



It is very illegal to ship ammo and primers via USPS.
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Originally Posted By cpermd:
Originally Posted By mPisi:


I just tried this for the first time too.  Did select adult signature required since that is a requirement for the limited quantities of ammo shipping.  Marked with the diamond limited quantity signs.  Label was a little weird since it showed 7lbs when it was a flat rate package that allowed 50 or 60 lbs, and I had 36lbs in it.  But picked up okay off my porch and on the way.  Price was ~$37 versus $70+ if done as a 36lbs package.  Fingers crossed.



It is very illegal to ship ammo and primers via USPS.
They are referring to UPS. I misread USPS also.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:38:23 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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I just like going into the ammo bunker and running my hands through it. It's very satisfying.

What do you do with yours?
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:39:23 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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For the Great Boogaloo that's why.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:41:58 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/13/2021 7:52:21 PM EST by lokifox]
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Originally Posted By t44e6:



I have some thrice fired 9mm brass for .02/rd
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Originally Posted By t44e6:
Originally Posted By lokifox:
Anyone know where I can get some cheap 9mm?

I don't really want to pay more than .20/rd.



I have some thrice fired 9mm brass for .02/rd


That's a great price if it isn't a bunch of mixed up bullshit.

ETA - Thrice... I can't read. It would be fine if a person were desperate.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:42:39 PM EST
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Originally Posted By anothergene:
Should I find a home for 4 or 5 buckets of extra once fired 9mm brass or is it worth scrapping ?

Hate to scrap it if someone needs it.
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I mean if you don't want $1000 then yes, you should scrap it.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:43:05 PM EST
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Originally Posted By DoctorLove:
I saw the writing on the wall. I stocked up during salad days. It was called salad days for a reason. I bought a case of 9mm for $200 every month for like 2 years
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You and I could be friends.  I've had to reinforce shelves in recent years.  
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:43:37 PM EST
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Originally Posted By t44e6:



I have some thrice fired 9mm brass for .02/rd
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Originally Posted By t44e6:
Originally Posted By lokifox:
Anyone know where I can get some cheap 9mm?

I don't really want to pay more than .20/rd.



I have some thrice fired 9mm brass for .02/rd


I stooped to paying .30/rd today for 115gr Speer "Lawman."
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:43:52 PM EST
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Originally Posted By anothergene:
Should I find a home for 4 or 5 buckets of extra once fired 9mm brass or is it worth scrapping ?

Hate to scrap it if someone needs it.
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Someone will buy it.   I feel like you could get at least $100 for a 5-gal bucket full now.  Buddy of mine sells cleaned range pickup 9mm brass for $100/ 5 gallons.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:44:59 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/13/2021 7:46:09 PM EST by big_aug]
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Originally Posted By JCoop:
I just like going into the ammo bunker and running my hands through it. It's very satisfying.

What do you do with yours?
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I sold all my guns and ammo this week. Gonna get banned anyway.  Cashed out now and payed off my mortgage.  I'll get battlefield pickups if necessary.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:49:39 PM EST
Your ammo shortage is starting to affect us in Russia. We're used to buying Tula and Barnaul .223 for 11 cents a round. Now it's all being shipped to the US to be sold for 60 c/round and we don't get any.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:50:53 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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So I can shoot it when I darned well want to!
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:52:26 PM EST
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Originally Posted By 9mmmac:
Are they holding your funds hostage?
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These newbies will never learn...
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:54:08 PM EST
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:57:05 PM EST
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Originally Posted By Wasd3r:
Your ammo shortage is starting to affect us in Russia. We're used to buying Tula and Barnaul .223 for 11 cents a round. Now it's all being shipped to the US to be sold for 60 c/round and we don't get any.
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That's interesting. Are prices rising over there, or is it they are just not selling it locally?
Can individuals in Russia own guns?
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:57:10 PM EST
My little LGS sold 12000 rnds of 5.56 yesterday.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 7:58:46 PM EST
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Originally Posted By JLAudio:


That's interesting. Are prices rising over there, or is it they are just not selling it locally?
Can individuals in Russia own guns?
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Originally Posted By JLAudio:
Originally Posted By Wasd3r:
Your ammo shortage is starting to affect us in Russia. We're used to buying Tula and Barnaul .223 for 11 cents a round. Now it's all being shipped to the US to be sold for 60 c/round and we don't get any.


That's interesting. Are prices rising over there, or is it they are just not selling it locally?
Can individuals in Russia own guns?
You biting? Account created TODAY, first post, etc.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:01:16 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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I like to roll around in loose ammo.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:06:40 PM EST
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Originally Posted By JLAudio:


That's interesting. Are prices rising over there, or is it they are just not selling it locally?
Can individuals in Russia own guns?
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We can and we do. Got about 3,5 million gun owners here. You have to own a shotgun for 5 years before you can get a rifle, but then there's almost no limits when it comes to what you can have. The only type of firearm we're not allowed to own are handguns.

As for the ammo situation, there's some rise in prices, but the biggest thing going on is the cheap ammo disappearing from the shelves. Apparently y'all get to have it instead :)
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:06:44 PM EST
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:06:52 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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Because the highs in the past week have been low to mid 30's.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:08:40 PM EST
[Last Edit: 1/13/2021 8:10:59 PM EST by Wasd3r]
See my Russian ARs thread coming later today. Might have a few interesting pics you've not seen anywhere else

Edit: Meant as a reply to joekizanyu. Still figuring out the forum UI.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:09:14 PM EST
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Originally Posted By Wasd3r:
Your ammo shortage is starting to affect us in Russia. We're used to buying Tula and Barnaul .223 for 11 cents a round. Now it's all being shipped to the US to be sold for 60 c/round and we don't get any.
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Shut up perfect english.  You a spy?
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:12:53 PM EST
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Originally Posted By big_aug:
For those stockpiling but not shooting or selling...

If you aren't shooting and you aren't selling,  why do you have it?
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To make sure I have it when I need it.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:19:53 PM EST
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Originally Posted By GHOS7:
My 1k rounds of wolf was pushed back from Feb to April (sportsmans guide)
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Kiss that ammo goodbye. I waited 4 months before they just summarily canceled my order of 223 in the spring. Sportsman's guide is BS. Never count on them.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:38:09 PM EST
It used to be, I divided my ammo into two categories: Range and SHTF.
Now all my ammo is SHTF.


Shooting is a perishable skill, but Joe/Kamala for 4 years is a clear and present danger to the supply chain.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:40:36 PM EST
Originally Posted By GTRider245:
Local Academy Sports, Cabelas, Gander and most LGS are out of everything and nothing has been delivered in two weeks. Walmarts are down to 28 gauge shotgun shells.

Before the new year all of these places would get random shipments and it would be gone fast, but they were still getting SOMETHING.

On local dealer says he’s on hold while distributors reevaluate pricing schedules, again.

Gun inventory, same story,
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Bass Pro had a cart full of ammo (556 9mm etc) deliverer, I know because I saw the empty flattened boxes that individual boxes came in.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 8:59:17 PM EST
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Originally Posted By balloo93:



Lol, yep.  Bought 1k in Sep last year and it was supposed to ship Nov..... then Dec....then Jan....now Feb.  I am starting to have doubts it will ever ship.

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Originally Posted By balloo93:
Originally Posted By GHOS7:
My 1k rounds of wolf was pushed back from Feb to April (sportsmans guide)



Lol, yep.  Bought 1k in Sep last year and it was supposed to ship Nov..... then Dec....then Jan....now Feb.  I am starting to have doubts it will ever ship.


I haven’t placed an order from them since 2006(maybe?) when they canceled my ammo backorder and said I could place a new order at the new higher price.

Hopefully they’ve fixed themselves and don’t do that to anyone again.
Link Posted: 1/13/2021 9:26:21 PM EST
Using this time to offload some odd lots.  It’s crazy.
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