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Posted: 4/17/2010 5:02:11 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/17/2010 5:03:32 AM EDT by Wobblin-Goblin]
...than anything we've seen thus far in the economy. He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy and any slight gains we see in 2010 (it is an election year, fwiw), will be wiped out in '11. Combined with increases in residential foreclosures that are coming soon, he said things are not far away from financial bedlam.

This guy has a lot of miles under his belt with regards to finances and such. If he's predicting a meltdown, I'm listening.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:05:20 AM EDT
He's not the only one predicting that but it's always nice to hear further confirmation.

Is this a good thing from a political standpoint for us? Will this turn the tide our way for a presidential election?
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:06:45 AM EDT
They do keep saying something about 5 year arms maturing or something later this year.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:07:17 AM EDT


Not saying your friend is wrong, but...


I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.

When someone giving me their opinion of financial matter doesn't own an island, I take it with a grain of salt.

As a matter of fact, when I discuss finances with people, I always make it a point to tell that that I, while having a degree in finance, do not in fact own an island.

-Z
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:08:07 AM EDT
I'm not surprised, it makes sense. The recovery has all been smoke and mirrors by the gov't and promoted by the media.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:09:05 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Crimson_Trace:
Not saying your friend is wrong, but...

I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.

When someone giving me their opinion of financial matter doesn't own an island, I take it with a grain of salt.

As a matter of fact, when I discuss finances with people, I always make it a point to tell that that I, while having a degree in finance, do not in fact own an island.

I have no idea if he owns an island, but chances are he's got a house on one.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:09:25 AM EDT
Pangea owns an island. I wonder what he thinks.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:09:32 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Crimson_Trace:


Not saying your friend is wrong, but...


I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.

When someone giving me their opinion of financial matter doesn't own an island, I take it with a grain of salt.

As a matter of fact, when I discuss finances with people, I always make it a point to tell that that I, while having a degree in finance, do not in fact own an island.

-Z


I've got Gilligan's Island on Beta.

Does that make me an expert?

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:10:07 AM EDT
everyone has an opinion...........
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:11:16 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
...than anything we've seen thus far in the economy. He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy and any slight gains we see in 2010 (it is an election year, fwiw), will be wiped out in '11. Combined with increases in residential foreclosures that are coming soon, he said things are not far away from financial bedlam.

This guy has a lot of miles under his belt with regards to finances and such. If he's predicting a meltdown, I'm listening.



Suffice it to say that anyone outside the Obama administration sees the writing on the wall, and knows fully well that we're nowhere near done with this "recession", and that unfortunately, things will likely get worse before they get better.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:12:13 AM EDT
I'm a realtor who says about the same thing.



These past 2 weeks have been INSANE for the amount of volume i'm getting for valuation requests from banks. I was doing a driveby assessment to tell a bank if a property they've loaned on was vacant ,and the condition , on a 1 mile stretch of rural road, there were 4 vacant homes (This is a very affluent area) and another 1-2 I know are in the process of being foreclosed on.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:12:50 AM EDT
Originally Posted By RI0T:

Originally Posted By Crimson_Trace:


Not saying your friend is wrong, but...


I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.

When someone giving me their opinion of financial matter doesn't own an island, I take it with a grain of salt.

As a matter of fact, when I discuss finances with people, I always make it a point to tell that that I, while having a degree in finance, do not in fact own an island.

-Z


I've got Gilligan's Island on Beta.

Does that make me an expert?



I think so. Let me check with MaryAnn...

-Z
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:13:08 AM EDT
I wouldn't believe much of anything that I heard from a "realtor"
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:15:12 AM EDT
Originally Posted By NoVaGator:
I wouldn't believe much of anything that I heard from a "realtor"

He had nothing to gain by telling me any of this, so there was no motive to lie or make shit up.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:16:13 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
Originally Posted By Crimson_Trace:
Not saying your friend is wrong, but...

I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.

When someone giving me their opinion of financial matter doesn't own an island, I take it with a grain of salt.

As a matter of fact, when I discuss finances with people, I always make it a point to tell that that I, while having a degree in finance, do not in fact own an island.

I have no idea if he owns an island, but chances are he's got a house on one.




You know, I think a house on an island is good enough.

I mean, its a nice island right? Not one of those crappy, cut-rate islands? And there are hot natives on the island, right? They walk around topless and probably bring him umbrella drinks. And it would have to be a nice house, not some mud-hut.

If that were the case, then I would take his opinion more seriously.

-Z
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:18:50 AM EDT
Originally Posted By NoVaGator:
I wouldn't believe much of anything that I heard from a "realtor"


what about a men's room attendant at an upscale restaurant in DC??
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:21:23 AM EDT
Originally Posted By WGPKlaus:
Originally Posted By NoVaGator:
I wouldn't believe much of anything that I heard from a "realtor"


what about a men's room attendant at an upscale restaurant in DC??


That would depend on the restaurant.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:23:46 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
...than anything we've seen thus far in the economy. He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy and any slight gains we see in 2010 (it is an election year, fwiw), will be wiped out in '11. Combined with increases in residential foreclosures that are coming soon, he said things are not far away from financial bedlam.

This guy has a lot of miles under his belt with regards to finances and such. If he's predicting a meltdown, I'm listening.


Maybe certain segments should be destroyed.

They obviously aren't working properly anyway due to .gov involvement.

the problem is who will do the rebuilding.

With left wing lunatics in charge, and Obama controlling the rudder, we're headed the complete opposite direction most of us believe we need to go.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:25:26 AM EDT

Originally Posted By WGPKlaus:
Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
...than anything we've seen thus far in the economy. He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy and any slight gains we see in 2010 (it is an election year, fwiw), will be wiped out in '11. Combined with increases in residential foreclosures that are coming soon, he said things are not far away from financial bedlam.

This guy has a lot of miles under his belt with regards to finances and such. If he's predicting a meltdown, I'm listening.



Suffice it to say that anyone outside the Obama administration sees the writing on the wall, and knows fully well that we're nowhere near done with this "recession", and that unfortunately, things will likely get worse before they get better.


Or even inside...cloward/piven

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:26:02 AM EDT
But things are getting better...

In fact, I've been thinking about starting a "You aint seen good yet, but it's comin" thread...
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:28:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/17/2010 5:30:09 AM EDT by Texkaw]

And don't forget all the new taxes we will get by then. If VAT and Cap and Trade with Obongo Reid and Pelosi whipping congress go through, consumer spending will drop like a rock.

I have heard from many sources that the commercial real estate derivatives are about to cause a huge shitstorm, just like the residential did last year.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:29:13 AM EDT
He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy

I've been saying this for over a year now - Florida is gonna get creamed.


Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:34:36 AM EDT
Your friend may be right. I don't know.

I think that the global economy has so many moving parts nobody can figure out what going to happen.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:39:14 AM EDT
Most interesting thing I've read on the recovery yet.
something I had never thought of, but makes total sense.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2194-Oh,-So-The-Recovery-Is-About-Delinquency.html



I've said for a long time that one of the reasons our consumer spending numbers have been "reasonably good" the last six months or so - and have been improving - is that people haven't been paying their mortgages.

Now comes Bank of America about to tell Congress the same thing:

Bank of America's top mortgage executive, testifying today before Congress, will release sobering details of home-loan delinquencies, including that "hundreds of thousands of customers" haven't made a payment in more than a year.

And, to put a number on it...

Almost 500,000 struggling loan customers have not supplied information or taken other basic steps to qualify for mortgage help. About half of them have not made a payment for more than a year, or owe more than 50 percent of the value of their homes.

That's because those 500,000 lied about their income, assets or both when they applied for the loan originally, and that deception would be discovered.

But this also means that some 250,000 of those customers have not made a payment in a year.

If we presume that these people have average mortgage payments of $1,000 a month (and this number is probably low), this amounts to $250 million monthly that is being spent in the economy but would otherwise go to mortgage payments.

Anecdotes bear these sorts of numbers out - so-called "struggling" homeowners who, despite being delinquent on their mortgage and in fact not having paid in over a year, are spending upwards of $1,500 monthly in places like Best Buy, hairdressers and tony clothing stores.

The essential conundrum is this: Eventually, one way or another, these families will have to start making payments toward housing again. They may make those payments via their mortgage or they may be evicted and become renters but the money currently being blown on frivolities that is "propping up the economy" and leading to "strong consumer sales" is showing up there only because people are literally getting a free ride on their shelter costs.


The perversions at play here are outrageous - not only are these "homeowners" living effectively for free (and since most mortgages have escrow accounts for property taxes, those aren't being paid either!) but in addition the banks, by not foreclosing, are holding defaulted loan paper on their books at dramatically above recovery value, thereby presenting a false view of their financial health.

Yes, the retail sales numbers this morning were good.

But how those numbers are being generated is important.

If they're generated off personal income, then they're good and indicate improvement in the economy. But if they're being generated by people not paying their debts, and the evidence is that this is exactly where the money is coming from, then we've got a problem, because just as with the false economic signals sent by monstrous deficit spending this too is a false signal that will be responded to by the market with ultimately disastrous results.

The largest challenge in trying to formulate a clear view of the future is eliminating these distortions. The "mainstream media" simply ignores these facts, pretending they don't exist, and then looks at the raw data to draw their conclusions. This is dangerous, even suicidal when attempting to formulate an economic view for yourself or your business, however, as these distortions are real and at some point they will disappear.

We have a new bubble ladies and gentlemen, and this one is the alleged "consumer recovery" coupled with the alleged "banking system recovery."

Both are bogus, yet both are also intertwined; banks not foreclosing for more than a year, allowing people to live free in a house, gives the consumer faux spending power and at the same time enables the bank to claim "assets values" that in fact don't exist.

As with all such deceptions and the economic bubbles they produce this game will continue until either the outright fraud is stopped by regulators or a cash flow shortfall forces recognition of the deception.

The damage when this unwinds, if it is not contained now by regulatory force, is going to be horrific. A concurrent collapse in consumer spending and bank balance sheets will lead us directly into the vortex of another financial crisis, and with The Government having shot its wad bailing out everyone in sight and with a severely-impaired balance sheet itself, there will be no effective policy response available to stop it.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:40:45 AM EDT

Commercial Real Estate crash ? Okay. I've been hearing it for a while. And I believe it. But ... whatever ...

I think we are so thoroughly fucked in every other direction it doesn't matter. I look out my window at an apartment that has been for rent for 6 months , the next door house for sale for 18 months , the other side neighbor was foreclosed and evicted by Fanny Mae last week.

The Senate has finished their version of Cap & Trade , Free health Care is about to get more expensive , a VAT is looming , We are about to give the vote to 30 million Mexicans turned Democrats , iran will be selling nukes to the highest bidder in a year or so , and my industry - construction - is basically dead , Japan & China are one inch away from telling us to FOAD wrt our credit line.

Did I miss anything ?

Oh , yeah : We amuse the President.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:44:24 AM EDT
There is not a single person I know involved in real estate or finance that feels things are or will get better any time soon. Everyone is talking about a major crash. Nearly everyone has stopped paying on their house. Because they believe the government will freeze foreclosures. I'm talking men with 25-30yrs experience. I know doctors who have stopped paying on their debt. They believe they will loose control over their clinics, so why keep paying out 20k in debt service? They are saving their cash now to offset any loss in income in the coming years.

What is really crazy is, for the first time in my life, I have moderately wealthy men ask me advice on security and or weapons. They are also looking into rural land and all that. These are guys who live in the city and enjoy the good life. People who would never have thought about moving to the country just a couple years ago. It is scary when people who know how industry works start prepping for bad times.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:45:57 AM EDT
The commercial property at risk in my AO are the "new", never occupied strip malls and office buildings that some local arrogant developers built.

Those developers are nobodys now, and the banks aren't worshiping them anymore.

I'd imagine we, as taxpayers, will be commercial R.E. tycoons soon.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:46:59 AM EDT
Worse as in "It will disrupt the easy access to goods and services in the US." ?



Or worse as in "You ain't seen bad, but it's comin'." posted 10 months ago. Or bad as in "The economy is going to collapse in the Fall of 2008." ?
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:50:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/17/2010 5:51:30 AM EDT by pdg45acp]
Originally Posted By -Apocalypto-:
I'm not surprised, it makes sense. The recovery has all been smoke and mirrors by the gov't and promoted by the media.


+1

Until this administration I really didn't believe that the Main Stream Media was in the pocket of the Democrats.

In my 62 years I have never seen the American Media publish so much bullshit in support of the regime in power as I have in the last year or so.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:52:59 AM EDT
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:54:54 AM EDT
Something wicked this way comes.


One sentence that pretty much sums it up, at least for me. Keep reminding yourself and others, that the fun has yet to start. Creeping, creeping creeping...
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:57:50 AM EDT
Remember that Banks have not foreclosed on delinquent notes for the last year. There is typically a year backlog and the HAMP program has been an utter failure. That means there will be a LOT of properties on the market soon. The banks will have to take write downs on these non-performing loans. They were just sticking the finger in the dike for the last year. I was a lawyer in a foreclosure firm last in 08-09 and it took months to get a delinquent property back. That is months of no income derived from these properties and then they need to sell the properties. On top of this are moratoriums on evictions during the winter months and Christmas season. All of these delays will have to be corrected at some point. If the interest rate creeps back up the value of these properties will plummet.

All this recovery talk is bullshit.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 5:59:35 AM EDT

Originally Posted By pdg45acp:
Originally Posted By -Apocalypto-:
I'm not surprised, it makes sense. The recovery has all been smoke and mirrors by the gov't and promoted by the media.


+1

Until this administration I really didn't believe that the Main Stream Media was in the pocket of the Democrats.

In my 62 years I have never seen the American Media publish so much bullshit in support of the regime in power as I have in the last year or so.



Yeah, where is the fucking media?

When GW was president, all you heard on TV and radio was how bad the budget was.

What was it, 450 billion?

Now Obama 's in the trillions and the media buries it.

God help us all.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:01:41 AM EDT

Volcano Costs Rise as Plume Spreads...

The last eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in December 1821 continued until January 1823. And, then there are the things that happen that are totally out of our control.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:19:50 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Crimson_Trace:




I like to filter these sorts of things through the "ownanisland" test.



Where does good judgement come from?

It comes from bad judgement.

If some guy was sitting on the sidewalk outside of a business, all beaten and bloodied, and he told me "Don't go in there, bad things happen in there", I don't think I'd go in there.




Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:20:32 AM EDT
Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Worse as in "It will disrupt the easy access to goods and services in the US." ?

Or worse as in "You ain't seen bad, but it's comin'." posted 10 months ago. Or bad as in "The economy is going to collapse in the Fall of 2008." ?

He basically said the worst is yet to come, that what we've experienced isn't the bottom. He doesn't know exactly how bad the economy will get, but next year will be the worst of it to date.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:22:55 AM EDT
I'm gonna be looking to buy in 2011/2012.

Be nice to get a house for a hundred bucks.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:25:23 AM EDT
Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Worse as in "It will disrupt the easy access to goods and services in the US." ?



Or worse as in "You ain't seen bad, but it's comin'." posted 10 months ago. Or bad as in "The economy is going to collapse in the Fall of 2008." ?


Extend and pretend baby! Let's keep this party rollin'.


At some point, for any real recovery, the music has to stop. Otherwise, we'll be lucky to be in Japan's 10 year stagnation.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:27:57 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin:
...than anything we've seen thus far in the economy. He confirmed that commercial loans and properties are time-bombs that will destroy certain segments of our economy and any slight gains we see in 2010 (it is an election year, fwiw), will be wiped out in '11. Combined with increases in residential foreclosures that are coming soon, he said things are not far away from financial bedlam.

This guy has a lot of miles under his belt with regards to finances and such. If he's predicting a meltdown, I'm listening.




Don't have a crystal ball but things are not looking up regardless of what the talking heads say. China is near a collapse. Commercial loans according to the FDIC are the main threats to small and regional banks. Half of all commercial bank loans are underwater by Dec 2010. The consumer continues to save and pay off debt. These action alone will slow or kill any recovery, This Goldman Sachs thing could blow up real bad. Then you have local state and city's putting their budgets together now, You can expect huge layoffs at all levels of state and local government. We are talking huge numbers here. New York city is looking at handing 8500 pink slips to their teachers and another 10,000 pink slips to regular city employees. Things will get really bad here in the next few months unless the feds step in and bailout city's,county's and states,
The value added tax(VAT) is also coming our way with a gasoline tax as icing on the cake. Thats at the federal level. Expect states to pile on here also. Of course if you have no job and the cost of just exisiting increases many will be on the streets or in cars or under bridges by the end of the year.

As much as I like to believe everything is getting better my gut says find a cave and close the opening as the real problems are closer than they appear to be. So make whatever preps you feel are necessary as this ride is not over yet. I do hope I'm wrong here. I really do.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:31:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/17/2010 6:31:55 AM EDT by mcantu]
things are going to get a lot more interesting starting this summer...

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:34:02 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4/17/2010 6:37:45 AM EDT by callgood]
Originally Posted By RI0T:

Originally Posted By pdg45acp:
Originally Posted By -Apocalypto-:
I'm not surprised, it makes sense. The recovery has all been smoke and mirrors by the gov't and promoted by the media.


+1

Until this administration I really didn't believe that the Main Stream Media was in the pocket of the Democrats.

In my 62 years I have never seen the American Media publish so much bullshit in support of the regime in power as I have in the last year or so.



Yeah, where is the fucking media?

When GW was president, all you heard on TV and radio was how bad the budget was.

What was it, 450 billion?

Now Obama 's in the trillions and the media buries it.

God help us all.


Budget? What budget? Congress hasn't passed one at this point. An irrelevant fact, just a tidbit.........

One effect of the housing fiasco is that on people who own outright or are current on their mortgage. The efficiency of the economy is diminished when people lose mobility due to not being able to buy/sell their homes.

We have a guy here on the city council who has been promoted and transferred to Montgomery. They will, most likely, have trouble selling their house. His wife is employed here as well. What would have been a mostly seamless transition will be much more complicated and expensive for them.

I have a commercial property fund in my 401-k. It has risen in the last year, despite the predictions I've been hearing for the last 2 years. Maybe it's being sucked North along with the other funds by the fake $ sloshing around, but I'm watching it (and my other investments) with hard stop loss points.

And I have a list of leveraged contra ETFs such as "SDS" ready to go.

I've done well the last 18 months, despite still being too much in cash (which may not be "too much" much longer), but it's like eating a satisfying meal when, toward the end, you realize the ham might be a little "off."

Stay loose, stay mobile.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:58:42 AM EDT
Just finished reading an article on Bloomberg,com about the Goldman Sachs problem. We could very well see a huge correction come Monday. Goldman Sachs may be finished along with the rating agencies.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 6:58:51 AM EDT
The housing bubble was the first pothole on a bad road, there's many more to come.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 8:04:40 AM EDT
Originally Posted By dragongoddess:
Just finished reading an article on Bloomberg,com about the Goldman Sachs problem. We could very well see a huge correction come Monday. Goldman Sachs may be finished along with the rating agencies.


Link?
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 10:52:42 AM EDT
Originally Posted By sixnine:
The housing bubble was the first pothole on a bad road, there's many more to come.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

I think so.
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:03:38 AM EDT
Originally Posted By slabertooch:
Originally Posted By dragongoddess:
Just finished reading an article on Bloomberg,com about the Goldman Sachs problem. We could very well see a huge correction come Monday. Goldman Sachs may be finished along with the rating agencies.


Link?


Possibly this one:

Goldman Sachs sued by SEC for fraud
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:06:34 AM EDT
there is so much commercial property in Florida that is vacant half the state looks like a ghost town. Money is not following so watch out for a huge collapse and my money is on Soros will profit like crazy. if we had not foreclosed on any homes and just rolled back those interest rates none of this would have happened.
i think things will get a lot worse
Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:07:39 AM EDT
Originally Posted By sixnine:
The housing bubble was the first pothole on a bad road, there's many more to come.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile


There are still plenty more potholes from housing.

Banks have been holding off on foreclosures since it moves a loan from a performing asset to a liability.

Then they must raise capital to meet reserve requirements (a performing loan is an asset that can be used to meet reserve requirements).

More foreclosures also reduces the value of the remaining assets (loans) and further increases the default rate.

It can spiral into destruction if not stopped.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:15:25 AM EDT
My wife's office has seen the best numbers in Real Estate in YEARS. And this is in South East Michigan. She still has the largest market share and closed volume for her company in the Region as well as the top producing agent in the country. She has close to 200 agents slinging real estate for her and the owners.

She set higher goals for 2010. So far, so good. Her office is STILL profit sharing while other offices are closing down.

Sales volume is up, while pricing is down.

Anyone involved in Real Estate that isn't excited or has a negative attitude and blaming the economy and the shift is lazy. Everyone is happy when selling is easy, everyone blames everything else when it actually takes some work to get a deal to the closing table.

The 'down turn' has been wonderful for my wife and the office. All the Patty part-timers left and the problem makers left citing "the economy'.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:16:15 AM EDT
It may suck, but it's mildly amusing to watch.

Link Posted: 4/17/2010 11:17:02 AM EDT
Originally Posted By GrIlLa:
They do keep saying something about 5 year arms maturing or something later this year.





That is what I have been reading.
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