If left alone, Iran will swing to the moderates and the problem will go away… we just need to provide support to the reformists and they will do the work…
Copied from a previous post of mine……
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Unfortunately I think things may go to shit very quickly, Israel will probably launch a pre-emptive strike and we will have the Mother of All Mess's in Iran… little we can do on that score.
Now in an Ideal world scenario:
Firstly, a bit of background. Iran is not an Arab country, you must make a note of this fact, it is very important, they are not Arabs and resent being called this. Your average Iranian regards an Arab as little more than an ignorant savage.
Unlike the rest of the Middle East, they have an independent culture, language and history predating just about anyone else, 1000+BC. Islam is a new religion in Iran, before that, Zorastrianism was their religion, and it is still very popular. It bears striking similarities with Christianity which it predates. Iran is a very homogeneous country and is not divided along tribal lines like the rest of the Middle East… they see themselves as 'Iranians' so there is no chance of an 'Iraq' insurgency situation breaking out after a regime change.
Until the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran was one of the most secular and outward looking countries in the region. The Ayatollah was welcomed as a change from the Shah, who was a bit of a bastard. His secret police, SAVAK had a fearsome reputation.
Within a year the novelty of the Islamic Revolution had worn off, but Saadam came to the Mullahs rescue by attacking Iran and giving the Mullahs a breathing space to consolidate power using the war as an excuse. Today, Islamic fervor is a very thin veneer in Iran. Sure, they lay on 'Rent-a-Mod' demonstrations for the cameras, but a westerner is very safe and will be welcomed by your Iranian in the street. Iran and Israel are two strange countries in the region, both are very similar, surprisingly so. Iran has it's mullahs, while Israel has it's hard line orthodox jews, both religious fanatics with an input into how the country is run. At the moment, the Mullahs have too much influence, but the people want to change that. Iran has a 'democracy' of sorts, OK it is very fractured and weak, but the concept of a Parliamentary Democracy, unlike in the rest of the Middle East is something they understand and endorse. Many Iranians are fascinated with Israel for this very reason, they see a Democratic model that allows them a free government but keeps religion at the forefront.
Now this is an important thing to note… Because Israel has shown that you can have Democracy and religious orthodoxy in a 'Western' style democracy the Mullahs hate Israel because it is a deadly threat to them politically.
Now how to get things changed in Iran…
Firstly KEEP THE CIA OUT OF THIS!!!!! This is most important! Iran has been mucked about by the ham-fisted actions of the CIA in the past. The overthrow of Mussadeq in the 1950's is still bitterly resented by Iranians today as is the CIA support for the Shah when it was obvious he was on the way out in the late 70's instead of supporting the Democrats and reformers. So no CIA!
Now the Nuclear plants will have to be dealt with now the UN has dropped the ball on this one. If a military solution is sought it must be restrained. A surgical strike on the reactor building and the nuclear development plant using a few cruise missiles is the limit, ideally as a 'reprisal' to an 'incident' in the Straits of Hormuz. Now, to get this 'incident' you will probably have to lose a warship like a Perry Class Frigate, but politically it must be an attack in retaliation to a serious provocation and seen to be such. Let them have their victory which they will trumpet all over the news, then the US can exact it's revenge, and that way the public will see it as such, a counter strike after losing a warship… not an act of unprovoked agression.
Now onto the revolt……
The days of the Mullahs are numbered and they know it, ever since Ayatollah Khomeini died in June 1989 they have lost their religious legitimacy and no longer command the respect of the people.
Firstly, Ignore all the exiles and pro Shah ones especially… they are a lost cause and have no legitimacy within Iran. It may stick in the White House's throat but it will probably mean siding covertly with one of the reformist Mullahs who accept the need for democracy and reform. They do exist and they are very vocal and active in Iran. They have the popular vote but they need something to help them dislodge the Old Guards hand from power. Special forces operators should help ferment a 'revolt' in a provincial city. The last one in 1999 was nearly the end of the Mullahs, the local police would not act against the students and the Mullahs had to resort to bussing in hard liners from the rest of Iran to subdue the student protests. This went down very badly with the public. However it must be a Special Forces affair without the heavy hand of the CIA who are hated within Iran. Let the Iranians free Iran is the best option, just provide money and moral support, they will do the rest.
Iran is ripe for revolt from within, it has a large and very educated young population who are very outward looking and want change and a truly democratic government, they just need an 'edge' to unseat the Mullahs.
So there you have it, my take… you don't need to directly attack Iran except as a last resort, and if you do, only use the minimum force required. This is one country that is willing to jump over to 'our' side with a little help and a lot of common sense on our part.
Andy