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Posted: 5/9/2012 6:15:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 6:26:33 AM EDT by 57Strat]
I have never seen it this bad. Check out the "out of stock" situation on the below examples:



Bravo Company upper receivers. Out of stock on 10 out of 11 uppers: Link

Bravo Company complete uppers: link

LMT is 20 weeks backordered on their 16" upper: Link

Most rifles at LMT are backordered up to 20 weeks: Link

Rainer Arms is "out of stock" on more than half of their complete upper models: Link

Noveske is "out of stock" on nearly every upper they offer: Link

Most complete uppers are "out of stock" at DSG Arms: Link

AIM "sold out" on uppers: Link

AIM "sold out" on complete upper: Link

This is just a few examples. If you check other sites you'll find similar situations.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:18:19 AM EDT
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:24:14 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 6:25:47 AM EDT by robb01]
Just discovered this while doing an ar pistol build. Luckily I was able to find a couple small shops that did have parts in stock. You can add spikes to the list too...
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:24:36 AM EDT
Seems like BCM has been out of stock the past 3 years. And it looks like Noveske is all anyone is buying anymore, they seem to be on top of the More Tactical Than Thou pile at the moment.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:26:40 AM EDT
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:27:39 AM EDT
This could be worse than Y2k!
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:29:13 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Mattyvac:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"



In 2008, many AR15 manufacturers ramped up production to meet election demands (Daniel Defense for example). In the ensuing panic buy, they were still unable to meet demand.

Then the buying slowed down and these manufacturers (who beefed up production) were left without a chair when the music stopped.

There were several manufacturers who had to close up shop, one or two were on the cusp of bankruptcy, and another laid off a majority of their workforce.


By the time the machines are in place and working, by the time production catches up with demand, the buying spree is nearly over.

It is poor business sense to make huge capital purchases (machines) to meet a short term bump in production need.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:29:33 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
I have never seen it this bad. Check out the "out of stock" situation on the below examples:



Bravo Company upper receivers. Out of stock on 10 out of 11 uppers: Link

Bravo Company complete uppers: link

LMT is 20 weeks backordered on their 16" upper: Link

Most rifles at LMT are backordered up to 20 weeks: Link

Rainer Arms is "out of stock" on more than half of their complete upper models: Link

Noveske is "out of stock" on nearly every upper they offer: Link

Most complete uppers are "out of stock" at DSG Arms: Link

AIM "sold out" on uppers: Link

AIM "sold out" on complete upper: Link

This is just a few examples. If you check other sites you'll find similar situations.


The "market" is in the process of "baking in" a Romney loss.

Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:29:43 AM EDT
I bought all my AR parts back in 1955. Bought cheap and stacked it deep.

You didn't do this?






































Joke!
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:29:58 AM EDT
ALET! ALET! ALET!
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:30:33 AM EDT
Originally Posted By ken_mays:
Seems like BCM has been out of stock the past 3 years. And it looks like Noveske is all anyone is buying anymore, they seem to be on top of the More Tactical Than Thou pile at the moment.




MTTT.


Polite and a bit condescending at the same time.

I kinda like it.

Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:30:38 AM EDT
In y'alls experience is this problem unique to the firearms/ shooting industry, or do you know of any other industries that are chronically backordered?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:30:40 AM EDT
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.


As an example, if you click the 16" Upper link at BCM, they are out of stock on 15 out of 20 uppers in that catagory: Link
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:32:16 AM EDT
Originally Posted By rob78:
Originally Posted By Mattyvac:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"



In 2008, many AR15 manufacturers ramped up production to meet election demands (Daniel Defense for example). In the ensuing panic buy, they were still unable to meet demand.

Then the buying slowed down and these manufacturers (who beefed up production) were left without a chair when the music stopped.

There were several manufacturers who had to close up shop, one or two were on the cusp of bankruptcy, and another laid off a majority of their workforce.


By the time the machines are in place and working, by the time production catches up with demand, the buying spree is nearly over.

It is poor business sense to make huge capital purchases (machines) to meet a short term bump in production need.


Yeah, it has to be timed perfectly, and the risk is there to have a HUGE overhead holding of thousands of gun parts that will take so long to get rid of, that your production needs to stop for too long and your workforce goes bye bye.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:33:35 AM EDT
Originally Posted By rob78:
Originally Posted By Mattyvac:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"



In 2008, many AR15 manufacturers ramped up production to meet election demands (Daniel Defense for example). In the ensuing panic buy, they were still unable to meet demand.

Then the buying slowed down and these manufacturers (who beefed up production) were left without a chair when the music stopped.

There were several manufacturers who had to close up shop, one or two were on the cusp of bankruptcy, and another laid off a majority of their workforce.


By the time the machines are in place and working, by the time production catches up with demand, the buying spree is nearly over.

It is poor business sense to make huge capital purchases (machines) to meet a short term bump in production need.


And this is the correct explanation.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:33:39 AM EDT
The Bushmaster site doesn't indicate their uppers are OOS.

Unless you get an indication or an email after you hit "checkout."
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:36:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 6:37:21 AM EDT by EHilderbrand]
Originally Posted By Mattyvac:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"


You clearly have no concept of manufacturing. This is most industries which require machining, forgings, castings, etc.

Lead times for metal products made within the United States are terrible in all industries. Foundries are far and few between due to EPA Regulations. There are less and less qualified machinist everyday. There is a shortage of mechanics to make sure CNC Machines, or, any mechanical machinery for that matter keeps on hummin' along.

This is the state of our country. Making a massive capital investment to expand your facility, add machinery, add people, this is all something that could all be for nothing, depending on if Obama is re-elected, or not.

It's not as simple as saying "Add more machinery!" When you issue an request for quote for a machining center and the quote reads "15-20 WEEKS A.R.O" on it, that sets you back another 20+ weeks at least to even take delivery of the machining center.

This all goes back to one thing. We don't make shit in this country anymore.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:36:35 AM EDT
The whole panic buying thing is just stupid at this point. EBRs are absolutely abundant. When the panic buying wanes, the prices will plummet again. I think the world is pretty fucked up these days but I still say that you are not going to have trouble finding an AR-15 or ammunition any time soon.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:37:20 AM EDT
I spoke with the J&T guys at last weekend's gun show & they told me they went months with no gas tubes available & now bolt carrier groups are impossible to get.

Hard to build AR uppers w/o those critical items, IMO.

Virtually every single mfgr I spoke with at the NRA convention told me they were running wide open & were STILL behind production schedule. They didn't share with me the reasons, no clue if it's a shortage of good machinists or supply parts?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:38:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Layer60:
The whole panic buying thing is just stupid at this point. EBRs are absolutely abundant. When the panic buying wanes, the prices will plummet again. I think the world is pretty fucked up these days but I still say that you are not going to have trouble finding an AR-15 or ammunition any time soon.


Just curious, but aren't you currently in Afghanistan right now?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:38:11 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.


As an example, if you click the 16" Upper link at BCM, they are out of stock on 15 out of 20 uppers in that catagory: Link


As far as I know they have always been that way. But you do have a point parts are drying up quickly.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:38:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 6:39:20 AM EDT by 57Strat]
Originally Posted By ayereckon3:
In y'alls experience is this problem unique to the firearms/ shooting industry, or do you know of any other industries that are chronically backordered?


I only noticed this because I have been looking at buying a complete upper assembly for about 5 months and have been checking sites trying to decide which complete upper I wanted to buy. Over the past 5 months I have noticed the "out of stock" situation rapidly change for the worse. Today I decided that I needed to make a choice on the upper assembly I wanted and order it today before I had to wait months to get one. I am glad I did because after I placed my order and completed it, the unit I ordered showed "out of stock". I must have gotten the last one.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:40:13 AM EDT
Originally Posted By EHilderbrand:

This all goes back to one thing. We don't make shit in this country anymore.


And for those remaining few who do, it's an extremely difficult balancing act to stay profitable. Regulations and other bureaucratic bullshit that punish manufacturers certainly doesn't help. Add long wait times for machinery and terribly unpredictable market and it's safer to try making some money and be sold out, rather than gamble everything and go bankrupt.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:40:37 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By ayereckon3:
In y'alls experience is this problem unique to the firearms/ shooting industry, or do you know of any other industries that are chronically backordered?


I only noticed this because I have been looking at buying a complete upper assembly for about 5 months and have been checking sites trying to decide which complete upper I wanted to buy. Over the past 5 months I have noticed the "out of stock" situation rapidly change for the worse. Today I decided that I needed to make a choice on the upper assembly I wanted and order it today before I had to wait months to get one. I am glad I did because after I placed my order and completed it, the unit I ordered showed "out of stock". I must have gotten the last one.


Which upper did you buy?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:41:31 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Layer60:
The whole panic buying thing is just stupid at this point. EBRs are absolutely abundant. When the panic buying wanes, the prices will plummet again. I think the world is pretty fucked up these days but I still say that you are not going to have trouble finding an AR-15 or ammunition any time soon.


Nobody wants to buy a rifle anymore, everybody wants to build their own.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:44:40 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Layer60:
Originally Posted By EHilderbrand:

This all goes back to one thing. We don't make shit in this country anymore.


And for those remaining few who do, it's an extremely difficult balancing act to stay profitable. Regulations and other bureaucratic bullshit that punish manufacturers certainly doesn't help. Add long wait times for machinery and terribly unpredictable market and it's safer to try making some money and be sold out, rather than gamble everything and go bankrupt.


Nail. Hammer. Head.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:45:17 AM EDT
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By ayereckon3:
In y'alls experience is this problem unique to the firearms/ shooting industry, or do you know of any other industries that are chronically backordered?


I only noticed this because I have been looking at buying a complete upper assembly for about 5 months and have been checking sites trying to decide which complete upper I wanted to buy. Over the past 5 months I have noticed the "out of stock" situation rapidly change for the worse. Today I decided that I needed to make a choice on the upper assembly I wanted and order it today before I had to wait months to get one. I am glad I did because after I placed my order and completed it, the unit I ordered showed "out of stock". I must have gotten the last one.


Which upper did you buy?


BCM w/ DD hand guard.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:46:19 AM EDT
Even the Bain Ultra bathtub we ordered from Canada was 5 weeks out.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:57:47 AM EDT
Sounds like it's time to put dem ARs in the garbage can and come on over to the AK side.


































Link Posted: 5/9/2012 6:58:03 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
I have never seen it this bad. Check out the "out of stock" situation on the below examples:



You didn't think post 2008 was this bad? Go look at PK Firearms's website; there was a time when they had uppers selling out in a matter of minutes back then. I don't see it being anywhere near that bad.


Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:13:28 AM EDT
It just means that now is a stupid time to be buying.

The prices and supply will return to normal in three distinct steps:
1) Polls show Obama is going to lose.
2) Day after the election that Obama lost.
3) Inauguration day when the specter of lame-duck gun control disappears.



I'd love to build a 16" middy for my wife right now, but the prices have gone stupid and I'd have to compromise on what I want. I can wait.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:21:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 7:22:11 AM EDT by Atomic_Ferret]
Originally Posted By Ballistoholic:
Sounds like it's time to put dem ARs in the garbage can and come on over to the AK side.





































There is a waiting list for AKs at the local funstore.

Went through this last go around, wound up waiting 2-3 months for my uppers.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:30:08 AM EDT
Then I guess it's a good thing my order from Stag is supposed to arrive today.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:31:11 AM EDT
This my friends is why Im always buying a 5-7 receivers every year.

Should have bought when the prices were low as now everyone thinks guns will be banned the day after the election

Free

Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:32:11 AM EDT
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:32:40 AM EDT
I sat down yesterday at YHM's site with my credit card...everything I wanted was out of stock.


Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:34:38 AM EDT

Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.
As an example, if you click the 16" Upper link at BCM, they are out of stock on 15 out of 20 uppers in that catagory: Link

And your point is......? BCM is always out of stock of their most popular uppers. They sell them as soon as they get them.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:41:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 7:42:40 AM EDT by 57Strat]
Originally Posted By Matt_B:

Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.
As an example, if you click the 16" Upper link at BCM, they are out of stock on 15 out of 20 uppers in that catagory: Link

And your point is......? BCM is always out of stock of their most popular uppers. They sell them as soon as they get them.


This has not been my observation for the past 5 months as it pertains to BCM barreled uppers. Back in the December/ January time-frame, BCM typically had most of their barreled uppers in stock. Only over the past 6 weeks has this shifted to a mostly out of stock situation as it pertains to barreled uppers.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:48:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 7:50:17 AM EDT by Berserkr556]
Maybe you should have said you can't find upper configured the way you want them because if i had the money i could buy all of the BCM, DD and PSA complete uppers i wanted. PSA is even running a sale on several of theirs. I received my BCM BFH complete upper in a couple of days when i ordered it but it's out now.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:55:20 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Berserkr556:
Maybe you should have said you can't find upper configured the way you want them because if i had the money i could buy all of the BCM, DD and PSA complete uppers i wanted. PSA is even running a sale on several of theirs. I received my BCM BFH complete upper in a couple of days when i ordered it but it's out now.


That's not the point. The point is that it is clear there is a trend developing where demand is quickly outpacing supply as it pertains to quality AR15 parts.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:56:35 AM EDT
It sucks. I have some extra cash just sitting around and I can't find anything I want in stock.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:57:44 AM EDT
EVeryone has income tax return money to spend....
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 7:58:39 AM EDT
Originally Posted By lsujim:
It sucks. I have some extra cash just sitting around and I can't find anything I want in stock.


What are you looking for? I have no problem finding what i need maybe someone can help you locate what you need to purchase.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:02:21 AM EDT
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Originally Posted By lsujim:
It sucks. I have some extra cash just sitting around and I can't find anything I want in stock.


What are you looking for? I have no problem finding what i need maybe someone can help you locate what you need to purchase.


I have a WTB ad in the AR section. No bites so far but I'm really specific about what I'm looking for.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:02:40 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Layer60:
The whole panic buying thing is just stupid at this point. EBRs are absolutely abundant. When the panic buying wanes, the prices will plummet again. I think the world is pretty fucked up these days but I still say that you are not going to have trouble finding an AR-15 or ammunition any time soon.


yup that AR i couldn't get rid of a year or so ago on on the EE? the ex GF sold it this week for $800. thats more than what she had in it! and the buyer was DELIGHTED to buy it.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:09:26 AM EDT
Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By Matt_B:

Originally Posted By 57Strat:
Originally Posted By hotbiggun42:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.
As an example, if you click the 16" Upper link at BCM, they are out of stock on 15 out of 20 uppers in that catagory: Link

And your point is......? BCM is always out of stock of their most popular uppers. They sell them as soon as they get them.


This has not been my observation for the past 5 months as it pertains to BCM barreled uppers. Back in the December/ January time-frame, BCM typically had most of their barreled uppers in stock. Only over the past 6 weeks has this shifted to a mostly out of stock situation as it pertains to barreled uppers.


there are definatly some buying shenanigans going on. last gun show i went to back in feb was the busiest i had ever seen in 20 years. on a day and time in which it should have been slow I barely got a parking space.

last night i'm in walmart getting kitty litter and a copy of shotgun news. the ammo cabinet was light. no 9mm, no .45 very little 5.56. they had tula 7.62x39 and hunting calibers 38 and 38 acp.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:20:55 AM EDT
No shit. I never thought I'd have such a hard time buying a gas tube! Seriously, a gas tube?!?! I can understand the parts that might be more subject to upgrades like hand guards and BCGs and such. But stupid little parts like gas tubes should be readily available. Of course this is the last part I need for my 6.8 build.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:31:08 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Dru:
EVeryone has income tax return money to spend....


Not everyone.

Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:34:04 AM EDT
Originally Posted By Mattyvac:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"


Supply and demand.

"Oh my, we don't have nearly enough to meet the demand. I guess we'll just have to quadruple to price. . ."
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:42:57 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/9/2012 8:45:01 AM EDT by FREEFALLE7]
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:44:18 AM EDT
Now is not the time to buy, now is the time SEEEELLLLLL...... Remember the old axiom, "buy low, sell high?"

I have zero sympathy for many folks, BHO has been in office for nearly how long, ~3 years; and they knew his track record on firearms; and everyone just "sat on their duffs."

And now everyone is screaming bloody murder because no one has parts to complete their beloved firearms, or has ammo, or has complete guns. Making a gun is not that simple, but of course not has complicated as say, building a car. Building fireamrs is pretty much a cottage industry. I bet that some hi-tech entrepreneurial billionaires can buy up all of the gun makers and close it down without even breaking a sweat.

Now with the prices of guns and ammo etc at a peak, it is time to stop buying, and go to the range to get a little shooting done.

BTW: this mentality is what gets the gunners in trouble with anti-gun firearms legislation, the gunners just seem to go go sleep in between lulls, and all of a sudden wake up to find the world a bit different when they fell asleep.
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