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Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:13:41 AM EDT
[#1]
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I am.

China to proceed with fourth bridge over the Panama Canal

Chinese Diplomacy

House Foreign Affairs

China Projects in Panama:
Since establishing relations with China in 2017, Panama has signed over two dozen agreements with Chinese companies in its infrastructure sector, including ports and energy, many of which are alleged to have been made under questionable circumstances.

A $5.5 billion, 450km high-speed rail project, connecting Panama City to Chiriqui province.
Construction of a port for cruise ships, a bridge, and a convention center around the Panama Canal.
Chinese group Shanghai Gorgeous is investing $900 million to build a second, 441 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility at the Atlantic exit of the Panama Canal.
China also almost succeeded in reaching a deal to build its new embassy at the entrance of the Panama Canal, but the deal was cancelled following pressure from the U.S.
Advancements by Chinese state-owned shipping companies, investment groups, and construction companies in projects around the Panama Canal threaten to further expand China’s influence over the canal’s operations at the expense of Panama’s sovereignty and democratic institutions.

Chinese Investment near Panama Canal

Chinese Companies with offices in Panama City:
Shanghai Gorgeous
China Prosperity Corp
Camara China de Comercio e Inversiones de Panama
Kufpec
etc.

And what we used to have there:

List of former US military facilites in Panama

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:45:42 AM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I am.

China to proceed with fourth bridge over the Panama Canal

Chinese Diplomacy

House Foreign Affairs

China Projects in Panama:
Since establishing relations with China in 2017, Panama has signed over two dozen agreements with Chinese companies in its infrastructure sector, including ports and energy, many of which are alleged to have been made under questionable circumstances.

A $5.5 billion, 450km high-speed rail project, connecting Panama City to Chiriqui province.
Construction of a port for cruise ships, a bridge, and a convention center around the Panama Canal.
Chinese group Shanghai Gorgeous is investing $900 million to build a second, 441 MW natural gas fired electricity generation facility at the Atlantic exit of the Panama Canal.
China also almost succeeded in reaching a deal to build its new embassy at the entrance of the Panama Canal, but the deal was cancelled following pressure from the U.S.
Advancements by Chinese state-owned shipping companies, investment groups, and construction companies in projects around the Panama Canal threaten to further expand China’s influence over the canal’s operations at the expense of Panama’s sovereignty and democratic institutions.

Chinese Investment near Panama Canal

Chinese Companies with offices in Panama City:
Shanghai Gorgeous
China Prosperity Corp
Camara China de Comercio e Inversiones de Panama
Kufpec
etc.

And what we used to have there:

List of former US military facilites in Panama

View Quote



And not a single thing you posted backs up your claim that China "took over the Panama Canal".
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 1:17:17 AM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:



And not a single thing you posted backs up your claim that China "took over the Panama Canal".
View Quote


Okay.  The Chinese do not literally own the Panama Canal.  They are just investing heavily in it.  And building bridges there.  And building infrastructure there.  And trying to build a new embassy near the mouth of the canal.  

We had some military bases in Panama, only we gave all those up.  So maybe they don't have the Panama Canal. But we don't either.  And we used to.




Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:41:08 AM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:


Okay.  The Chinese do not literally own the Panama Canal.  They are just investing heavily in it.  And building bridges there.  And building infrastructure there.  And trying to build a new embassy near the mouth of the canal.  

We had some military bases in Panama, only we gave all those up.  So maybe they don't have the Panama Canal. But we don't either.  And we used to.


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Quoted:
Quoted:



And not a single thing you posted backs up your claim that China "took over the Panama Canal".


Okay.  The Chinese do not literally own the Panama Canal.  They are just investing heavily in it.  And building bridges there.  And building infrastructure there.  And trying to build a new embassy near the mouth of the canal.  

We had some military bases in Panama, only we gave all those up.  So maybe they don't have the Panama Canal. But we don't either.  And we used to.



get a grip, bro.

PRC literally built ONE, singular, bridge that goes nowhere.  it’s literally the least used bridge in the country.  everyone jokes about it.

They are not “trying” to build an embassy at the mouth of the canal. they “ tried”.  And WE shut that shit down.

No one invests in the canal, except for panama.  it’s sovereign to the panamanians, and at the same time, by design, separate from the  government.  they know if they fuck it up, we’re coming back.  That being said, the canal authority secured any outstanding  key terrain for  itself.  the chicoms aren’t getting prime real estate.

all that being said,   the canal is panama’s  and they are succeeding in running beyond anyone’s expectations.

yeah, the canal used to be ours, but make no fucking mistake,  when the panama canal authority has a problem, they’re NOT calling the chicoms.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:13:58 AM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
I can see an October 7th style attack occurring when China invades Taiwan. We’ll get hit with a cyber attack first then, the massacre will begin afterwards. I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

The .gov will say they had no way to see this coming and will blame it on Trump, Republicans and a “broken immigration system”.

View Quote



So, China not only tries to invade Taiwan (an exercise in self-mutilation, with the grand prize of an island of rubble, with those semiconductor factories a smoking memory, and huge damage to the PRC in general and the PLA in particular)....they open a second front against the United States which will not materially affect our military potential in the least, but would instantly galvanize the entire population to declare war on the PRC (and, y'know, allow us to invoke Article 5 and bring NATO* into the game)?

Other than "10/7" now being a brainbug for us on the Right, what makes you think this?




*-who, for all it's flaws, constitutes about 80% of the military power (and 90% of the projectable military power) on the planet.....and about 2/3 of the global economy.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:24:56 AM EDT
[#6]
Attachment Attached File


Let the "sun shine" on China.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:06:21 AM EDT
[#7]
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You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.

Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:09:37 AM EDT
[#8]
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Quoted:


Okay.  The Chinese do not literally own the Panama Canal.  They are just investing heavily in it.  And building bridges there.  And building infrastructure there.  And trying to build a new embassy near the mouth of the canal.  

We had some military bases in Panama, only we gave all those up.  So maybe they don't have the Panama Canal. But we don't either.  And we used to.
View Quote

The investment and lives lost for the creation and maintenance of the Panama Canal only for that idiot Dem apologist Jimmy Carter to give it away for a dollar. Strategic idiocy.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:28:46 AM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:
If China suprise attacks us it will be with a genetically targeted bioweapon.

Super covid aids for non-chinese genes.
View Quote


This. It’s already happening.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:38:10 AM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 4:44:53 AM EDT
[#11]
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Quoted:


If there is China military here, and that's the plan, wouldn't it make sense that they have their military weapons already smuggled in and stockpiled here? Why train them on the QBZ-95 in China only for them to have to use a unfamiliar weapon here?
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China makes a Norinco copy of the M4, so their familiarity with our most common rifle in the US is pretty high. I wouldn't put it past them to train solely with those copies for agents sent to the US in this scenario.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 7:06:51 AM EDT
[#12]
That would be stupid of the Chinese. Firstly I’m pretty sure that would get them nuked, and secondly attacking our infrastructure would be much easier.

I don’t know how many electrical substations there are in the country, but what if they were to damage/destroy 50,000 of them?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:10:06 AM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:



So, China not only tries to invade Taiwan (an exercise in self-mutilation, with the grand prize of an island of rubble, with those semiconductor factories a smoking memory, and huge damage to the PRC in general and the PLA in particular)....they open a second front against the United States which will not materially affect our military potential in the least, but would instantly galvanize the entire population to declare war on the PRC (and, y'know, allow us to invoke Article 5 and bring NATO* into the game)?

Other than "10/7" now being a brainbug for us on the Right, what makes you think this?




*-who, for all it's flaws, constitutes about 80% of the military power (and 90% of the projectable military power) on the planet.....and about 2/3 of the global economy.
View Quote


I had that same conversation with a colleague in the German Ministry of Defense.

His response was, "The AOR you are referencing is in the Pacific, not in the North Atlantic."  Translation; not a NATO problem.

My response, "Yes, but it still involves the United States, which is a NATO member."

His response, "Okay, you get our full support.  Then what?  How big do you think the German Navy really is?"    

NATO can do a lot of soft power things, but I would not count on the Europeans to send a lot of combat power into any conflict, because they don't have it and for the foreseeable future they won't have it.



Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:18:38 AM EDT
[#14]
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Quoted:

You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.

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Quoted:

You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.



After a million civilian casualties from a terrorist attack, as postulated by the OP?  I think it would be on the table.

Put it this way, the American people would be screaming for blood (well, at least half of them, the other half would be wondering why they hate us and protesting to stop the "anti-immigrant hate"), and that's not the kind of populist movement a government can ignore.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:21:08 AM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:


If something like that did happen, I pray the loyal Americans of Asian descent make themselves scarce.  It will get sporty if the people come for blood.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
I can see an October 7th style attack occurring when China invades Taiwan. We’ll get hit with a cyber attack first then, the massacre will begin afterwards. I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

The .gov will say they had no way to see this coming and will blame it on Trump, Republicans and a “broken immigration system”.

So, when will China invade Taiwan?


If something like that did happen, I pray the loyal Americans of Asian descent make themselves scarce.  It will get sporty if the people come for blood.



Yup, this is the thing.

History has shown that if an attack like that occurs, the people that resemble the attacking parties in this country are going to be in great danger, right or wrong.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:24:09 AM EDT
[#16]
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Quoted:


I had that same conversation with a colleague in the German Ministry of Defense.

His response was, "The AOR you are referencing is in the Pacific, not in the North Atlantic."  Translation; not a NATO problem.

My response, "Yes, but it still involves the United States, which is a NATO member."

His response, "Okay, you get our full support.  Then what?  How big do you think the German Navy really is?"    

NATO can do a lot of soft power things, but I would not count on the Europeans to send a lot of combat power into any conflict, because they don't have it and for the foreseeable future they won't have it.



View Quote
They don't have a huge navy, but they do have stockpiles of weapons, manufacturing capabilities and will participate in anti Chinese embargoes.

We need most of europe on our side. America alone does not have the population and manufacturing base to head off China. Combine our Pacific allies, our European allies with America's strong military power and together we are extremely formidable.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:25:14 AM EDT
[#17]
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Quoted:


What is China's nuclear arsenal currently like?  I have heard they only have 200 missiles with nuclear warheads capable of reaching the US.  They could take quite a few western cities I would think, but the US, as far as I know, possesses enough devices and delivery systems to wipe out every or nearly every Chinese city of any note (100,000 people or above?).  The problem would be I would think, would the US, upon doing that, still have enough of a deterrent for Russia?
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China will invade in late spring.

No direct attacks against US forces or domestic targets unless we intervene, then it will be ballistic missile attacks (conventional) against US Pac bases and fleets, along with domestic infrastructure attacks with drones (power transmission and refineries) along with cyber attacks.

A Oct 7 style attack with 1 million civilian casualties might trigger a nuclear response even with Potato in office.


What is China's nuclear arsenal currently like?  I have heard they only have 200 missiles with nuclear warheads capable of reaching the US.  They could take quite a few western cities I would think, but the US, as far as I know, possesses enough devices and delivery systems to wipe out every or nearly every Chinese city of any note (100,000 people or above?).  The problem would be I would think, would the US, upon doing that, still have enough of a deterrent for Russia?


China's nuclear arsenal has been stated to have 300 strategic warheads for..., well, the last 50 years.

The reality is, no one knows, or no one who knows is talking about it.  China isn't party to any bilateral arms treaties on force size.

A few years ago, China went on a building spree and started installing 1,000 silos.  They could be empty silos, they could be single warhead DF-31As, or they could be multiple warhead DF-41s, or they could be missiles full of water instead of rocket fuel.  

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/08/chinas-new-missile-fields-are-just-part-pla-rocket-forces-growth/184442/

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/12/07/china-may-have-surpassed-us-in-number-of-nuclear-warheads-on-icbms/


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:26:01 AM EDT
[#18]
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Quoted:


When China invades Taiwan Russia will also do bad things, like invading the Baltics. Kim Jung Un will also get froggy.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
I can see an October 7th style attack occurring when China invades Taiwan. We’ll get hit with a cyber attack first then, the massacre will begin afterwards. I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

The .gov will say they had no way to see this coming and will blame it on Trump, Republicans and a “broken immigration system”.

So, when will China invade Taiwan?


When China invades Taiwan Russia will also do bad things, like invading the Baltics. Kim Jung Un will also get froggy.


With what??? Horse drawn artillery?

The whole "OMYGOD Russia!" is absolutely fucking ridiculous at this point.  Only the glowies push this nonsense. Are you in the illustrious fbi?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:30:51 AM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:


Okay.  The Chinese do not literally own the Panama Canal.  They are just investing heavily in it.  And building bridges there.  And building infrastructure there.  And trying to build a new embassy near the mouth of the canal.  

We had some military bases in Panama, only we gave all those up.  So maybe they don't have the Panama Canal. But we don't either.  And we used to.




View Quote

Quoted:

get a grip, bro.

PRC literally built ONE, singular, bridge that goes nowhere.  it's literally the least used bridge in the country.  everyone jokes about it.

They are not "trying" to build an embassy at the mouth of the canal. they " tried".  And WE shut that shit down.

No one invests in the canal, except for panama.  it's sovereign to the panamanians, and at the same time, by design, separate from the  government.  they know if they fuck it up, we're coming back.  That being said, the canal authority secured any outstanding  key terrain for  itself.  the chicoms aren't getting prime real estate.

all that being said,   the canal is panama's  and they are succeeding in running beyond anyone's expectations.

yeah, the canal used to be ours, but make no fucking mistake,  when the panama canal authority has a problem, they're NOT calling the chicoms.


View Quote
What he is saying is technically true in a sense.

the country of Panama is constitutionally required to maintain ownership over the canal but have outsourced some of the day to day operations and contracted with Chinese companies to maintain the infrastructure around it.

does that give China the ability to cut off access to the canal? Probably not. Not legally.
but what China does is take contracts to get a foothold in to places.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:36:57 AM EDT
[#20]
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Quoted:



After 3 years of non stop hawkishness and escalation by the current ruling party you think they wouldn’t?

They are more warlike than republicans lately.
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The Left does warfare that dithers around so they can steal money
Victory ends the money train.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:40:34 AM EDT
[#21]
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Quoted:
They don't have a huge navy, but they do have stockpiles of weapons, manufacturing capabilities and will participate in anti Chinese embargoes.

We need most of europe on our side. America alone does not have the population and manufacturing base to head off China. Combine our Pacific allies, our European allies with America's strong military power and together we are extremely formidable.
View Quote


I get that.  I do.

But how long would it take to rally those allies and how long would it take for China to take Taiwan?  Time/Space calculus favors the Chinese.

My opinion:  Once Taiwan is taken, it is gone.  Nobody is going to mount a reconquest of the island.  So, any show of solidarity has to be done before China initiates any action.  Getting everybody in NATO to agree to anything takes time.  
More time than most people appreciate.   Often, it takes more time than people inside NATO appreciate.  After Ukraine, Sweden joining as a member should have been a slam dunk.  But it was not.

All said, I don't think China will fight a war to take Taiwan.  Taiwan will just be taken softly and when that is done, the rest of the world will go about their business.





Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:46:31 AM EDT
[#22]
If the democrats are at risk of losing the election...and as we draw closer to the election, I can see China making a big move.......perhaps for nothing more than delaying our elections...yes I can see this happening.... in fact, I would prepare for it...
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 9:53:35 AM EDT
[#23]
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Quoted:


China's nuclear arsenal has been stated to have 300 strategic warheads for..., well, the last 50 years.

The reality is, no one knows, or no one who knows is talking about it.  China isn't party to any bilateral arms treaties on force size.

A few years ago, China went on a building spree and started installing 1,000 silos.  They could be empty silos, they could be single warhead DF-31As, or they could be multiple warhead DF-41s, or they could be missiles full of water instead of rocket fuel.  

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/08/chinas-new-missile-fields-are-just-part-pla-rocket-forces-growth/184442/

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/12/07/china-may-have-surpassed-us-in-number-of-nuclear-warheads-on-icbms/


View Quote


Hmm, so really no one knows for sure.  Thanks.  
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:10:08 AM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:
Why would China attack our country when they already own our politicians?
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What if their ownership of our politicians buys them zero reaction, or even assistance?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:10:56 AM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:


If there is China military here, and that's the plan, wouldn't it make sense that they have their military weapons already smuggled in and stockpiled here? Why train them on the QBZ-95 in China only for them to have to use a unfamiliar weapon here?
View Quote


Does every shipping container that come into the Chinese owned port at LGB get opened and examined? I’m guessing not. They could have imported cruise missiles and we wouldn’t know it.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:15:12 AM EDT
[#26]
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Quoted:



5,000 Chinese are crossing the border each month and sanctuary cities are providing room and board.

They will be given ARs that have been stockpiled over the last several years by Chinese already here.

No Polytech Legends for this crew...
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All those container ships and they didn't bribe Customs and bring in a few hundred containers of actual military arms?

If China were actually determined to do this they'd have better stuff than shoulder fired weapons at their disposal. Belt fed weapons, mortars, grenades, missiles, drones, maybe a few light armored vehicles, all manner of electronic warfare gear, etc.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:20:21 AM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:
They can get to all of our nukes? I think not. That would be the end of China.
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We have the ability. I don’t believe we have the will. 9/11 would have looked vastly different if Gore or Obama had been President.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:20:30 AM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:


I get that.  I do.

But how long would it take to rally those allies and how long would it take for China to take Taiwan?  Time/Space calculus favors the Chinese.

My opinion:  Once Taiwan is taken, it is gone.  Nobody is going to mount a reconquest of the island.  So, any show of solidarity has to be done before China initiates any action.  Getting everybody in NATO to agree to anything takes time.  
More time than most people appreciate.   Often, it takes more time than people inside NATO appreciate.  After Ukraine, Sweden joining as a member should have been a slam dunk.  But it was not.

All said, I don't think China will fight a war to take Taiwan.  Taiwan will just be taken softly and when that is done, the rest of the world will go about their business.





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It is difficult to cross the chanel and crush Taiwan in a short time. IMO, we are likely to see a supporting buildup which will enable America to also move supporting assets into range. America has some excellent capabilities that would inflict massive damage to any floating assets China pushes out. We have quite a few long range assets that can put weapons on target across the globe. Currently I don't think it would go well for China. It behooves America to ensure China percieves their ability to prevail militarily as too costly.

Taiwan may go on its own peacefully given enough time. In the near term they are electing representatives strongly opposed to joining China. If Xi wants re-unification to happen under his hand, he'll have to pursue force as he's too old for it to happen on its own.


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:22:19 AM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:


Hmm, so really no one knows for sure.  Thanks.  
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IMO people should assume 800+ deliverable warheads.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:25:44 AM EDT
[#30]
That will NEVER happen.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:27:49 AM EDT
[#31]
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Quoted:


After a million civilian casualties from a terrorist attack, as postulated by the OP?  I think it would be on the table.

Put it this way, the American people would be screaming for blood (well, at least half of them, the other half would be wondering why they hate us and protesting to stop the "anti-immigrant hate"), and that's not the kind of populist movement a government can ignore.
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This.

And the Leftist Government would fail to publicly identify the attackers. And, it wouldn’t matter anyway because the power in the cities would be mostly down so no internet or unauthorized media.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:29:03 AM EDT
[#32]
Good. 1 million dead in democRat sodomite cities would be a good start towards righting this country.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:30:08 AM EDT
[#33]
Quoted:
I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

View Quote


Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:31:20 AM EDT
[#34]
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Quoted:



After 3 years of non stop hawkishness and escalation by the current ruling party you think they wouldn’t?

They are more warlike than republicans lately.
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Quoted:

You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.




After 3 years of non stop hawkishness and escalation by the current ruling party you think they wouldn’t?

They are more warlike than republicans lately.

Democrats love getting us into wars to enrich their MIC komrads.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:32:28 AM EDT
[#35]
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That would be stupid of the Chinese. Firstly I’m pretty sure that would get them nuked, and secondly attacking our infrastructure would be much easier.

I don’t know how many electrical substations there are in the country, but what if they were to damage/destroy 50,000 of them?
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Only right wing voters would exist the next election. It would be a good thing to return to agrarian.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:34:02 AM EDT
[#36]
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Quoted:


After a million civilian casualties from a terrorist attack, as postulated by the OP?  I think it would be on the table.

Put it this way, the American people would be screaming for blood (well, at least half of them, the other half would be wondering why they hate us and protesting to stop the "anti-immigrant hate"), and that's not the kind of populist movement a government can ignore.
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Quoted:

You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.



After a million civilian casualties from a terrorist attack, as postulated by the OP?  I think it would be on the table.

Put it this way, the American people would be screaming for blood (well, at least half of them, the other half would be wondering why they hate us and protesting to stop the "anti-immigrant hate"), and that's not the kind of populist movement a government can ignore.

Half the population is screaming about a stolen election and all they did was murder and imprison some people without due process and a speedy trial.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:37:08 AM EDT
[#37]
Civil war comes first. Why attack your enemies when you can get them to kill themselves?
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:37:47 AM EDT
[#38]
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Quoted:


Does every shipping container that come into the Chinese owned port at LGB get opened and examined? I’m guessing not. They could have imported cruise missiles and we wouldn’t know it.
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Quoted:
Quoted:


If there is China military here, and that's the plan, wouldn't it make sense that they have their military weapons already smuggled in and stockpiled here? Why train them on the QBZ-95 in China only for them to have to use a unfamiliar weapon here?


Does every shipping container that come into the Chinese owned port at LGB get opened and examined? I’m guessing not. They could have imported cruise missiles and we wouldn’t know it.

They already have millions of nukes here sitting in strategic locations. CTPAT and 10-2 are a miserable failure and less than 1% get opened by lazy inefficient and corrupt government stooges.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:37:59 AM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
When China takes Taiwan it will be like when they took Hong Kong or Tibet or the Panama Canal.  They'll just take it.  Nobody will put up a fight.  Not the U.S. Not the Europeans.  Not even the Taiwanese.

The news here will barely report it.  Some flunky from the State Department will give a 3-minute presser about how they've gotten guarantees from the Chinese Communist Party that human rights and international norms will be respected.

A spokesperson from Defense will say very earnestly that the Pentagon is monitoring the situation closely.

You'll go into work and say, "I can't believe the CCP took Taiwan without a shot being fired."  And none of your coworkers will have the slightest idea what you are talking about.
View Quote


Sad, but most likely accurate. Especially the coworkers part.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:39:22 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It is difficult to cross the chanel and crush Taiwan in a short time. IMO, we are likely to see a supporting buildup which will enable America to also move supporting assets into range. America has some excellent capabilities that would inflict massive damage to any floating assets China pushes out. We have quite a few long range assets that can put weapons on target across the globe. Currently I don't think it would go well for China. It behooves America to ensure China percieves their ability to prevail militarily as too costly.

Taiwan may go on its own peacefully given enough time. In the near term they are electing representatives strongly opposed to joining China. If Xi wants re-unification to happen under his hand, he'll have to pursue force as he's too old for it to happen on its own.


View Quote

Not our country not our war. Bring our boys home and seal the border no more foreign aid. Europ can figure out how to take care of themselves.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:40:02 AM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Civil war comes first. Why attack your enemies when you can get them to kill themselves?
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Taxation is theft.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:40:52 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:
I can see an October 7th style attack occurring when China invades Taiwan. We’ll get hit with a cyber attack first then, the massacre will begin afterwards. I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

The .gov will say they had no way to see this coming and will blame it on Trump, Republicans and a “broken immigration system”.

So, when will China invade Taiwan?
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If they did that the world would turn them to glass.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 10:43:44 AM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Why would China attack our country when they already own our politicians?
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This^^^^^
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:00:34 PM EDT
[#44]
Some of you really do live in a fantasy world.

I’m embarrassed for you all.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:46:21 PM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
I can see an October 7th style attack occurring when China invades Taiwan. We’ll get hit with a cyber attack first then, the massacre will begin afterwards. I expect 50,000 sleeper cell Chinese to attack the top 50 U.S. cities (resulting in 1 million casualties) Primary targets will be business buildings, malls, schools, airports and heavy traffic Interstate highway areas.

The .gov will say they had no way to see this coming and will blame it on Trump, Republicans and a “broken immigration system”.

So, when will China invade Taiwan?
View Quote


You forgot the downed power lines, blown up transformers and power plants, railway lines, water-treatment plants, POL storage, FPV drone attacks onto our military bases (especially air bases)...    Those can ultimately kill more Americans, and also cripple US response.

However, if the US gets so crippled, that it faces an existential threat, then I could see just going to strategic nukes and obliterating China....  I hope China realizes this too.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:50:01 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

You really think a Democrat administration would retaliate with nukes? I don't.

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Maybe you haven't noticed, but Joe Biden's foreign policy is much closer to Ronald Reagan's than Trump's ever was.

But there is zero need for nukes in this scenario. We could instantly cut off Chinese energy and food imports and there's nothing they could do about it.  Everything they import comes from far away beyond the reach of their Navy.

Russia might try to help a little bit via land routes but there is nothing they could do to prevent the inevitable death of hundreds of millions of citizens and a complete collapse of the economy.

Any attempt by China to invade Taiwan would be the ultimate pyrrhic victory.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 12:55:09 PM EDT
[#47]
No,  
They aren't suicidal.  The attacks will focus on substations,  refineries, airfields etc.  Soft targets the can impact alot and still retreat to strike again.  

Those things will cause plenty of panic without indiscriminate killing.

 April and Oct are the best months to cross the strait.  Also expect 3-6 months of buildup.  Will also include a political crisis.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:38:42 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I had that same conversation with a colleague in the German Ministry of Defense.

His response was, "The AOR you are referencing is in the Pacific, not in the North Atlantic."  Translation; not a NATO problem.

My response, "Yes, but it still involves the United States, which is a NATO member."

His response, "Okay, you get our full support.  Then what?  How big do you think the German Navy really is?"    

NATO can do a lot of soft power things, but I would not count on the Europeans to send a lot of combat power into any conflict, because they don't have it and for the foreseeable future they won't have it.



View Quote



You can strangle China literally to death by deploying a half-dozen warships to the Indian Ocean and turning all the oil tankers back.  

NATO also constitutes every Naval force capable of global operations (UK, French, and Italian) that isn't American.  Yeah, it's not a LOT, but it is everything else.  The USN has nothing else to do than sinking the PLAN (and then lobbing missiles at various Chinese targets).


China might be able to run wild IF the US had other irons in the fire (like Russia storming into Europe).....but there aren't any (Putin blew his shot and is now militarily bogged down in Ukraine, with chunks of his Navy on the bottom of the Black Sea).  It'd be the US versus China, and China loses that game in every possible scenario (and the Chinese, the ones that matter, know it).

We'd be hurt, bad, economically.  Possibly even take a lot of damage, militarily.  China.....would be knocked back to 1930s times.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 2:59:16 PM EDT
[#49]
I don't think it would be just big cities.  

Literally anyone anywhere with little training can take out power, poison municipal water, and destroy a manufacturing plant.

Not to mention the online infrastructure that would be remotely destroyed.  Credit card payment infrastructure.

Gonna be a lot of looting if/when it comes to that.  

Point of use water treatment will become key along with more but smaller factories.  Then we need the people to work them.  Imagine being the politician that has to wean half the population of of free shit.
Link Posted: 2/20/2024 3:06:33 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By KC-130 FLT ENG:
Some of you really do live in a fantasy world.

I’m embarrassed for you all.
View Quote


This has more to do with the thousands of single, military aged Chinese men crossing the southern border each week and less to do with an ARFcom wet dream...
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