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Posted: 8/17/2005 10:53:00 AM EDT
www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-gas17.html

5 bucks a gallon for gas? Expert sees it in 2006

August 17, 2005

BY MARK J. KONKOL Transportation Reporter

If you think all this flirting with $3-a-gallon gas is already a pain in the pocketbook, brace yourself.

Oil expert Craig Smith predicts gas prices will skyrocket next year, jumping to five bucks a gallon.

And if terrorists successfully strike a major Middle East oil field, Americans might end up paying $10 a gallon -- about $110 to fill a Ford Focus' 11-gallon tank.

Smith, a self-proclaimed geopolitical know-it-all hawking his new book Black Gold Stranglehold, says Americans -- tree-hugging politicians and car-addicted commuters alike -- should blame themselves for the coming spike in prices.

"Why are they charging higher prices for gas? Because people will pay it. Apparently, we're not changing our driving habits much," he said. "Blame this on ourselves. This country has not built a new refinery in 30 years, we stopped new oil exploration . . . and put a moratorium on offshore drilling."

Smith -- who last year predicted $3-a-gallon gas and $65-a-barrel crude oil prices this year -- says oil prices will jump to $80 a gallon by the end of 2006.

On Tuesday, the national average was $2.52 a gallon, according to AAA. And the price of gas topped $3 here last week.

If you don't believe the average cost of gas will double in 12 months, Smith points to places such as Hong Kong, Korea and France, where gas prices regularly top the $5 mark.

The solution here for high oil prices: "find it, drill it, refine it and burn it" domestically, Smith said, pointing to untapped crude reserves in Alaska, Colorado, Utah, off the California coast and in the Gulf of Mexico.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 10:54:48 AM EDT
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 10:57:15 AM EDT
anyone ever think about gagging these guys. Wonder how much of this is self-fullfilling speculation
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 10:58:43 AM EDT
"Experts" saw the end of the world coming for Y2K too. I wouldn't worry until it happens
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:01:07 AM EDT
I've got a bicycle I can use if it comes to it.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:07:26 AM EDT
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:08:56 AM EDT
People might actually become financially responsible then, but I doubt it.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:09:42 AM EDT
At $10 a gallon, we'll be paving over ANWR to keep the animals out and wringing oil out of Spotted Owls.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:13:19 AM EDT

Originally Posted By 52brandon:
"Experts" saw the end of the world coming for Y2K too. I wouldn't worry until it happens


+1.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:13:55 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Upstat:
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.



You really think so? With major election cycles coming you'll see tax breaks and gas handouts for the "poor".

Looks like our enemies, or potential "competitors", (Islamic states, China, etc.) have learned to fight us economically. With the rising costs of fuelk go rising costs of everything else. Our economy may soon really start stagnating because it will cost too much to do, make, or build anything. Economic atrophy is not far behind.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:21:45 AM EDT
The rising price of fuel is going to have a huge negative effect on the economy if it doesn't level down.

Just think of all the big SUV's that are going to be dumped on the market to be traded fro smaller more fuel efficient cars. That drops the value of ALL the bigger vehicles. That's a huge amount of money lost within the national economy. This is just one very simple example.

This could get really rough folks.

CMOS
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:30:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/17/2005 11:31:40 AM EDT by Sader762]
$5 a gallon will hurt the economy bad and cause people to drastically change.

$10 a gallon will cause a major market crash......

Maybe the shock of drastically increasing energy prices will force us to seek alternate means of energy like more nuke plants. Screw the enviro-wackos, nuke energy is a great source of energy (just ask France ).

As for me I'll keep the Expedition, it would take 2 gas sippers to sport the family around town.

D
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:33:41 AM EDT

says Americans -- tree-hugging politicians and car-addicted commuters alike -- should blame themselves for the coming spike in prices.


Oh yeah. It's our fault. No one else in the WORLD drives cars, busses, jets, makes plastic, tires, etc etc.

It's Us in our Excursions that's doing it. Uh Huh. I'm sorry. I'll start walking my 23 mile commute immediately.

Please accept my apologies for personally fucking up the gas prices, worldwide.

As far as $5 a gallon next year? this time last year gas was what around here...$1.70? Now it's 2.60. Yeah I can see a big jump, it will be at least 3.50 easy. That will make getting to work very challenging. We don't have mass transportation in the Midwest.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:35:24 AM EDT
If it goes to $10 a gallon.. you're gonna see shit happen that you've never even dreamed about.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:38:06 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Upstat:
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.



You really think so? With major election cycles coming you'll see tax breaks and gas handouts for the "poor".

Looks like our enemies, or potential "competitors", (Islamic states, China, etc.) have learned to fight us economically. With the rising costs of fuelk go rising costs of everything else. Our economy may soon really start stagnating because it will cost too much to do, make, or build anything. Economic atrophy is not far behind.



I just hope we dont see stagflation, mounting inflation and a stagnating economy. This could get rough, I hope it doesnt, but who knows
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:41:53 AM EDT

Originally Posted By osprey21:
If it goes to $10 a gallon.. you're gonna see shit happen that you've never even dreamed about.




Mad Max type shit?
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:42:57 AM EDT
It seems everyone here forgets humans. We adapt to any situation put before us. If all electricity went out next year, the whole world wouldnt just die, we would adapt and change our lives to fit what happens.

So if gas does get to $10 a gallon, dont expect that people are going to still be using cars powered by gas. Right now there is a big jump to hybrids and a whole lot of hydrogen engines being built and designed. America just doesnt keel over and die because one of our many energy resources went up.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:44:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By CMOS:
The rising price of fuel is going to have a huge negative effect on the economy if it doesn't level down.

Just think of all the big SUV's that are going to be dumped on the market to be traded fro smaller more fuel efficient cars. That drops the value of ALL the bigger vehicles. That's a huge amount of money lost within the national economy. This is just one very simple example.

This could get really rough folks.

CMOS



Money lost by people who already don't own much of the vehicle anyway. A very large portion of people driving these big vehicles put nothing down and took out 8 year notes. They make thye minimum payment and then wonder why they lose money on a trade.

When the bottom falls out, as on houses, there's gonna be A LOT of pain.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:44:24 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Belfry_Express:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Upstat:
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.



You really think so? With major election cycles coming you'll see tax breaks and gas handouts for the "poor".

Looks like our enemies, or potential "competitors", (Islamic states, China, etc.) have learned to fight us economically. With the rising costs of fuelk go rising costs of everything else. Our economy may soon really start stagnating because it will cost too much to do, make, or build anything. Economic atrophy is not far behind.



I just hope we dont see stagflation, mounting inflation and a stagnating economy. This could get rough, I hope it doesnt, but who knows



I doubt stagfllation because we just came out of the 10th worst and longest depression.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:44:59 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Sader762:
$5 a gallon will hurt the economy bad and cause people to drastically change.

$10 a gallon will cause a major market crash......

Maybe the shock of drastically increasing energy prices will force us to seek alternate means of energy like more nuke plants. Screw the enviro-wackos, nuke energy is a great source of energy (just ask France ).

As for me I'll keep the Expedition, it would take 2 gas sippers to sport the family around town.

D



Are we going to change or find alternate sources before it is too late? I seriously doubt it.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:45:57 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Charging_Handle:
I've got a bicycle I can use if it comes to it.

I need to get my fat ass on it anyway!
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:47:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ARinKCMO:

says Americans -- tree-hugging politicians and car-addicted commuters alike -- should blame themselves for the coming spike in prices.


Oh yeah. It's our fault. No one else in the WORLD drives cars, busses, jets, makes plastic, tires, etc etc.

It's Us in our Excursions that's doing it. Uh Huh. I'm sorry. I'll start walking my 23 mile commute immediately.

Please accept my apologies for personally fucking up the gas prices, worldwide.

As far as $5 a gallon next year? this time last year gas was what around here...$1.70? Now it's 2.60. Yeah I can see a big jump, it will be at least 3.50 easy. That will make getting to work very challenging. We don't have mass transportation in the Midwest.



How many other countries drive anywhere near the same as we do? How many countries do you see stay-at-home moms drivinf Excursions around town ALL DAY EVERY DAY, flitting from place to place for no real reason? I would say that describes at least 25% of the women in my small town. Unfortunately we ARE the most wasteful society there is. Maybe we earned it but we also earned the pain that inevitably comes.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:48:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/17/2005 3:19:13 PM EDT by Fenian]
$80 a barrel (hehe) by the end of 2006? How 'bout the end of 2005?

At this rate, it's not outside the realm of possibility.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:53:53 AM EDT
I thought the Nazi's refined coal for fuel in the 30's. How long till we start doing that here? We have ass loads of it here. Same with Shale.

-K
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:56:39 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Fenian:
$80 a gallon by the end of 2006? How 'bout the end of 2005?

At this rate, it's not outside the realm of possibility.



I hope he means barrel.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 11:57:42 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/17/2005 12:03:17 PM EDT by efpeter]

Originally Posted By Special-K:
I thought the Nazi's refined coal for fuel in the 30's. How long till we start doing that here? We have ass loads of it here. Same with Shale.

-K



Ultra-clean fuels from coal liquefaction: China about to launch big projects - Brief Article
Diesel Fuel News, July 22, 2002 by Jack Peckham


Pending final government approvals, Shenhua Group -- China's largest coal producer -- just announced it aims to build a 50,000 barrels/day refinery to make ultra-low sulfur diesel and gasoline from direct coal liquefaction.

The $2 billion plant, to be built adjacent to coal mines at Majata, Inner Mongolia, will use coal liquefaction technology developed by U.S.-based Hydrocarbon Technologies Inc., (HTI) a division of coal-synfuels developer, Headwaters.

HTI developed the process in part with U.S. Department of Energy "clean-coal" liquefaction research in recent years, HTI president L.K. Lee told us in an interview. Shenhua spent the last five years evaluating technology options from vendors and conducting feasibility studies, before signing technology licenses with HTI last week.

Assuming that the Chinese government grants final approval, construction of Shenhua's first reactor train would start in early 2003, followed by plant start-up in 2005. A total of three licensed reactor trains would process about 12,800 tons/day of the local coal.

The finished fuels would be hauled from the plants in tank-cars via Shenhua's existing railroads adjacent to the mines. These trains already haul coal for later trans-shipment via watercraft to city markets.


----------------

The Chinese are still working on it, but it is still more expensive than oil.

And, yes, the NAZI's invented coal liquification. It was out of necessity, because they couldn't get enough petrol to fuel their armed forces. As a side note, Rommel was in Africa because it was the path of least resistance to the oil fields of the middle east.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 12:58:34 PM EDT
If it's 10 bucks a gallon here, what will it be in Europe? China? We won't be the only ones facing a problem. In europe it'll prolly be $15 a gallon. If it's bad here it will be terrible everywhere else. The USA is not alone in this and will most likely be better off than everyone else. Food for thought.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 1:07:39 PM EDT
Expensive fuel will drive up ALL prices. We ship by truck and air in this country. Get ready for some serious inflation.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 1:14:12 PM EDT

Originally Posted By osprey21:
If it goes to $10 a gallon.. you're gonna see shit happen that you've never even dreamed about.




yep
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 2:20:21 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 2:26:47 PM EDT
Hi ratio mix ethanol blends are easily an alternative. Yeah, we won't get as good mileage but if gas costs $* then it'll wash out. We have a grain surplus. We pay farmers NOT to farm. Plus, burns cleaner, helps farmers/small towns, small business, uses current distribution systems, and would remove the largest consumer base from OPEC's demand curve. If anyone doubts this would work, we forced South Africa to prove it during the embargo in the 80s/90s.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 2:37:09 PM EDT
All we need is a 5% reduction in consumption and we will have prices in the $2/gallon range.

5% of the dumbest drivers need to get off the road anyhow.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 2:50:58 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Keith_J:
All we need is a 5% reduction in consumption and we will have prices in the $2/gallon range.

5% of the dumbest drivers need to get off the road anyhow.



Gas price hikes are like gun control laws. Once they're here, they're here to stay. (AWB being the exception).
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:39:45 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Da_Bunny:
Expensive fuel will drive up ALL prices. We ship by truck and air in this country. Get ready for some serious inflation.



Yep, it will be the bust of the current boom economy. If fact, I predict you'll start to see serious inflation beginning this winter. Fuel costs are tied to all goods & services. We're at $2.71 reg as of this morning. If fuel costs aren't brought into line by next summer, we will be in the midst of a serious recession again.

The U.S. lacks the infrastructure to make any kind of impact by using domestic resources. The buracracy is miles thick, and any actiion to do domestic drilling will take 10 years to bear fruit.

Frankly, the only way to have an immediate direct impact is for consumers to cut their consumption in half. If that happens on a national level, petrol supplies will exceed demand and the price will drop.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:45:56 PM EDT
Said it before and I'll say it again. DRILL ALASKA. The damn tree huggers can push my Jeep otherwise. With the way things are going in the middle east then they will hopefully kill each other off by the time things run dry here. It doesn't cost a damn dime more for opec to pump that shit out of the ground now than it did 15 years ago. They are trying to ruin our economy. It's long been a tactic to ruin our opponets economies. It's how we won the cold war. Make them spend 70 cents of every dollar on defense. Counterfeit the shit out of their money. It's all part of war. NOW they are doing it to us, and getting rich at the same time.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:49:43 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SJSAMPLE:
At $10 a gallon, we'll be paving over ANWR to keep the animals out and wringing oil out of Spotted Owls.




Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:52:06 PM EDT
Where's Peak oil when you need him
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:55:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CMOS:
The rising price of fuel is going to have a huge negative effect on the economy if it doesn't level down.

Just think of all the big SUV's that are going to be dumped on the market to be traded fro smaller more fuel efficient cars. That drops the value of ALL the bigger vehicles. That's a huge amount of money lost within the national economy. This is just one very simple example.


Your example only affects those who can afford to buy Excursion or Navigator tanks. Cry me a river. I'm more concerned about the demand for hybrids will push prices up. The hell with the rich's SUVs.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 4:55:47 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Upstat:
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.



Increased crime.
1. at gas stations
2. tankers
3. in my driveway siphoning MY gas
...
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 5:14:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By mikejohnson:

Originally Posted By Upstat:
We'll just see a little demand destruction, that's all. It's a shame the poor aren't going to be able to drive as much these days. On the bright side, at least their old junky cars will be off the road a little more and give me some room on the freeways.



Increased crime.
1. at gas stations Does not affect me much, see it happening up here alot already
2. tankers figure that will happen alot, either 'jacking the rig or siphoning when they get the chance
3. in my driveway siphoning MY gas Not happenign to me, my tank is lockable, has a heavy screen in the tank, and I have a .45 (or 5) waiting
...





It is goign to be just like the first Mad Max......... People jumping tankers and stealing Gas out of Cop Cars
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 5:17:50 PM EDT
Not that I won't deny that it could be possible of a $5/gal price in the future, but everything stated as 'EXPERTS SAY' , 'THE FDA SAYS' , 'FINANCIAL ANALYSTS SAY or 'DOCTORS SAY' seem to be more like educated guesses than something that they can prove will happen. More likely they just say what everybody else knows and they get the credit for saying it first.

Yes, EVENTUALLY at some time in the future, the cost of gasoline will cost $5/gal just like a gallon of milk will cost $5 and a showing at a movie theater will cost $15, etc, etc, etc.
And I didn't need to be an "expert" in anything to figure this out.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:15:55 PM EDT

Originally Posted By lu380:

Originally Posted By Keith_J:
All we need is a 5% reduction in consumption and we will have prices in the $2/gallon range.

5% of the dumbest drivers need to get off the road anyhow.



Gas price hikes are like gun control laws. Once they're here, they're here to stay. (AWB being the exception).



Bull. I remember gas being nearly $2.00 a gallon back in 1990. And it was $0.72 in 1998.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:28:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/17/2005 8:30:04 PM EDT by tfod]
War for conquest- a return of realpolitik. We invade for their oil, not reasons or excuses. All opposition will be destroyed. Do it while we are still strong.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:30:57 PM EDT
I think it's highly likely that if gas prices do skyrocket, we will adapt. Manufacturers will be losing their asses because of the devaluation of large inefficient vehicles, and the customer will be demanding more efficient, or alternate, technology.

If you look at the technological leaps and bounds we have made in the last 100 years, then why is fuel efficiency akin to ~1940s era engines entirely acceptable? I bet many of us would bitch and moan if our computers were as slow as they were just 5 years ago.

This is the greatest fockin nation in the world, and has innovated and invented just about everything that's good in this world. We can do better.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:34:16 PM EDT
Yeah, its getting crazy, I am going to go look at hybrids tommorrow. I figure it will save me 300 a month at this point. I will feel like a punk but thats alot of savings, and thats at current prices.
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:35:44 PM EDT
well, if thats the case...i know a certain Nissan Titan 4x4 thats gonna do alot of sitting and a KLR 650 that's gonna see alot of miles...
Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:37:36 PM EDT
There is no real shortage right now to justify the price per barrell. I'ts being driven up by speculators nervous about every bit of news out of the mideast.
Remember all those 5$ gallon prices overseas is because of the high taxes that run their social programs.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 8:44:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/17/2005 8:46:39 PM EDT by JHMC79]
Two Words:

Ethanol, Soydiesel.



Both of them are continuously renewable and made in the heartland of this country.

Both can be used in existing engines with little to no modifications.

Both of them put out virtually no "bad" emmisions.

Demand it in your area.

Link Posted: 8/17/2005 10:21:49 PM EDT

Originally Posted By JHMC79:
Two Words:

Ethanol, Soydiesel.

Both of them put out virtually no "bad" emmisions.

Demand it in your area.




According to modern environmental "science", Carbon Dioxide is a bad emission.

Biodiesel and Ethanol have some serious problems to overcome before they are marketable on their own.
Link Posted: 8/18/2005 1:41:04 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Torf:


Biodiesel and Ethanol have some serious problems to overcome before they are marketable on their own.





Only the big bad oil industry.
Link Posted: 8/18/2005 2:08:24 PM EDT
Alright, I went to look at hybrids today. This is the deal, they are pretty much basic little cars that all look very generic but are nice enough. I am 6' 2" and dont fit in those little tin cans to well. They tried to screw me on the deal acting as if i would pay anything for the car. Pretty much my thought is that they are nice litle commuting cars if you dont really need the space of a larger vehicle. The utility of my 4 runner out ways the need for the hybrid at this point. Gas will prolly go down or level off after the summer anyway. Oh, and as my brother out it, hybrids are cool if you are a gay. Which I am not.
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